Sunday, April 20, 2025

Happy Easter -- April 20, 2025

Locator: 44853ARCHIVES.

The deportation story:

  • journalists are missing the big story; and,
  • at some point, if no other solution is found, just remember, "everything is bigger in Texas."

Houthi update, link here. First question: why has this taken so long? This should have been accomplished "day 1." 

Oh-oh! Did Harvard open Pandora's Box for all the elites? This could be monumental. Link here.

Ouch! Did Airbus over-promise, under-deliver? Link here.

Really poor analysis! Blaming Somerset's demise on Trump. Link here.

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The Book Page

My book for the week

  • The Seven Storey Mountain: An Autobiography Of Faith, Thomas Merton, 1948, 1998.

Never quit reading.

I first came upon and read this book back in 2004 or thereabouts on the advice of a woman in Yorkshire of whom I had grown fond. My copy, a softcover, was bought from "Half-Price Books," probably in San Antonio, date unknown, for $5.99, currently available at Amazon for $20.99 but easily available for under $10 almost everywhere else. 

My notes in the book suggest that I read it to the end, but again, I don't know exactly when.

Within nine pages of the book, in addition to the 23 pages of the introduction and "a note to the reader," I have already connected these dots:

  • Thomas Merton
  • WWI
  • Gertrude Stein and Alice B. Toklas
  • F. Scott Fitzgerald and The Great Gatsby, Valley of the Ashes, Flushing, NY
  • Graham Greene
  • rhubarb and my own mother (page 8)
  • the Quakers

Notes of the book here.

Wow, wow, wow -- his mother died in 1921; Thomas would have been five or six years old.

That year his father got a job at the Episcopalian Church in Douglaston, Queens, Long Island, NYC (where his maternal grandparents lived). At the time I am writing this, Sophia, Arianna, May and I had just joined St Stephen's Episcopalian Church in Hurst, just a couple of miles from where we now live.

Called to Common Mission (CCM) is an agreement between The Episcopal Church (ECUSA) and the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA) in the United States, the church in which I was confirmed in Williston, ND, establishing full communion between them. It was ratified by the ELCA in 1999, the ECUSA in 2000, after the narrow failure of a previous agreement.

End of notes for now; reading the book.

AI Is An Energy Story -- They're Reading The Blog -- April 20, 2025

Locator: 44852AI.

Link here.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 20, 2025

Locator: 44851NEWWELLS.

The wells:

  • 41147, conf,  BR, Watchman Peak 5C, Westberg, npd,
  • 41067, conf, BR, Tilton 3D, Lone Butte, npd,
  • 39816, conf, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-6, Ross,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20251471910962
1-2025143478415
12-2024154478993
11-20242437620152
  • 39815, conf, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-5, Ross,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-2025159129964
1-2025138248587
12-2024146077825
11-20242225511986
  1. 30265, conf, MRO, Whitney USA 14-9H, Wolf Bay, npd,
  2. 30264, conf, MRO, Alvina USA 44-9H, Wolf Bay, npd,
  3. 40669, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 9HR, Siverston,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20254233281936
1-20253299150797
12-2024740
11-2024770315750
10-202438223996
  • 25074, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek State 153-96-16-3H, Sand Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-2025115067238
  • 41068, conf, BR, Tilton 3E, Lone Butte, npd,
  • 40728, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-15H, Burg,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-2025133569760
1-20252324820890
12-20242089717868
11-2024195954998
10-20249110
  • 40727, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1 4H, Burg,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20251664314720
1-20252589423028
12-20241727517570
11-2024221455576
10-20249550
  • 41148, conf, BR, Devils Backboe 5B, Westberg, npd,
  • 40726, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1 2H, Burg,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20251596412943
1-20251688615008
12-20241743114465
11-2024240386718
10-202420300
  • 40725, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1-1H-LL, Burg,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20252010014007
1-20251905317346
12-20241327212446
11-2024205855077
10-202423770
  • 40707, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1 3H, Burg,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20251935513337
1-20252110218810
12-20241948416918
11-2024219495770
10-202413330
  • 40491, conf, Oasis, Lee N 5201 21-5 2B, Camp,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20252088418406
1-20252340321998
12-20242237415754
11-20242683414711
10-202417561502
  • 41069, conf, BR, Tilton Tree 3F ULW, Lone Butte, npd,
  • 40362, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 10H, Siverston,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20252820
1-20254135876411
12-20244645098482
11-20242924853683
10-2024109718126
  • 40668, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-247HR, Siverston,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20252022534613
1-20252824040113
12-20242210338105
11-2024970
10-202478497797
  • 40441, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, Tucson 158-94-26-35-6MBH, White Earth,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20251156314946
1-20251623717858
12-20241884714351
11-20241636010674
10-202457597284
  • 40440, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, Rice 158-94-25-36-10MBH, East Tioga, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20251329719007
1-20251552814147
12-20241979613815
11-20241848212473
10-202463697794
  • 41149, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 5B, Westberg, npd,
  • 39761, conf, Grayson Mill, Orville 4-9 6H, Todd (Williston),
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20251213016006
1-20252127725302
12-20242786725057
11-20243052825434
10-202497464201
  • 40442, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, Tucson 158-94-26-35-5MBH, White Earth,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20251391017074
1-20251768719108
12-20241919214486
11-20241989913253
10-2024982011319
  • 40667, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 6HR, Siverston,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20251470524775
1-20252687939600
12-20242947545131
11-20244360175911
10-20241809513527
  • 38680, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5A-31-1H, Charlson, npd,
  • 41174, conf, CLR, Helen 4-8H, West Capa, npd,

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 20, 2025

Locator: 44850NEWWELLS.

The wells:

Wednesday, April 30, 2025: 100 for the month, 100 for the quarter, 292 for the year,
41147, conf,  BR, Watchman Peak 5C,
41067, conf, BR, Tilton 3D,
39816, conf, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-6,
39815, conf, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-5,
30265, conf, MRO, Whitney USA 14-9H,
30264, conf, MRO, Alvina USA 44-9H,

Tuesday, April 29, 2025: 94 for the month, 94 for the quarter, 301 for the year,
40669, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 9HR,
25074, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek State 153-96-16-3H,

Monday, April 28, 2025: 92 for the month, 92 for the quarter, 299 for the year,
41068, conf, BR, Tilton 3E,

Sunday, April 27, 2025: 91 for the month, 91 for the quarter, 298 for the year,
40728, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-15H,
40727, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1 4H,

Saturday, April 26, 2025: 89 for the month, 89 for the quarter, 296 for the year,
41148, conf, BR, Devils Backboe 5B,
40726, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1 2H,
40725, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1-1H-LL,
40707, conf, Phoenix Operating, Axel Ferrari 25-36-1 3H,
40491, conf, Oasis, Lee N 5201 21-5 2B,

Friday, April 25, 2025: 84 for the month, 84 for the quarter, 291 for the year,
41069, conf, BR, Tilton Tree 3F ULW,
40362, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 10H,

Thursday, April 24, 2025: 82 for the month, 82 for the quarter, 289 for the year,
40668, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-247HR,
40441, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, Tucson 158-94-26-35-6MBH,
40440, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, Rice 158-94-25-36-10MBH,

Wednesday, April 23, 2025: 79 for the month, 79 for the quarter, 286 for the year,
None.

Tuesday, April 22, 2025: 79 for the month, 79 for the quarter, 286 for the year,
41149, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 5B,
39761, conf, Grayson Mill, Orville 4-9 6H,

Monday, April 21, 2025: 77 for the month, 77 for the quarter, 284 for the year,
40442, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, Tucson 158-94-26-35-5MBH,

Sunday, April 20, 2025: 76 for the month, 76 for the quarter, 283 for the year,
40667, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 6HR,
38680, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5A-31-1H,

Saturday, April 19, 2025: 74 for the month, 74 for the quarter, 281 for the year,
41174, conf, CLR, Helen 4-8H,

Bakken 5.5

Locator: 44849B.

From January 22, 2023.

Bakken 5.5: January 22, 2023; moving to longer laterals; three-mile laterals; operators moving to Tier 2 and Tier 3. 

Previous Posts

From this post.

From FAQs.

82a. What do you mean by Bakken 2.0? See this post. Important data points:
  • June, 2007: the very early days of the Bakken boom; began in Montana, 2000; Bakken 1.0
  • October 19, 2016: the beginning of Bakken 2.0
    • the event that triggered the Bakken 2.0 designation: the SM Energy announcement that it was selling some Bakken acreage/assets to Oasis
    • it appears Permian Shale 2.0 began with the WPX, Noble, and XOM announcements regarding acquisitions in the Permian -- late 2016/early 2017
82b. What do you mean by Bakken 2.5? See this post.
  • Bakken 1.0: began in the summer of 2007; it was originally tagged "Bakken101" and I continue to use the "Bakken101" tag 
  • Bakken 2.0: October 19, 2016
  • Bakken 2.5: April 10, 2018 -- correlates/corresponds with CLR's new completion strategies; North Dakota crude oil production to set new records; increased focus on the Permian vs the Bakken
  • Bakken 3.0: We go to Bakken 3.0 if the "Lynn Helms' production surge (LHPS - 2018) is sustained for six months.  Link here.

82c. Bakken 3.0 -- see above. The surge noted in 2018 certainly lasted for six months.

82d. Bakken 4.0 -- oil shock - market meltdown, 2020. Tag: "Meltdown_2020." And, of course, "Bakken_4.0. "New" and very common well designations started appearing just as we went to Bakken 4.0: SI/A; F/A; F/NC. Link here for examples. SI/A are wells that have been completed, have come off the confidential list, but are immediately shut in, sometimes with no production or very minimal production (less than 500 bbls) but often 15 days of great production, such as 17K bbls crude oil over 14 days. I didn't know whether to highlight them in "red" or "blue," but because they came off confidential list "on time," had been completed and had production following a frack, I highlighted them in "red." F/A; F/NC were wells that producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed. It appears that in Bakken 4.0 we will have wells that come off the confidential list, or the SI/NC list, but are immediately shut in or choked back significantly. See this post, dated March 26, 2020, first time I tagged a post with "Bakken_4.0."

On December 30, 2021, I wrote:

We're currently in "Bakken 4.0." It's very possible we move to Bakken 5.0 if the following four "things" converge as expected:

  • the Biden administration/environmentalists significantly impact the "US shale revolution" (which I think they will);
  • the relative stability in the Mideast seen in the past four years changes for the worse (which I think it will); 
  • global demand for oil increases more quickly than anticipated (not sure about this); and,
  • price of oil trends higher (WTI trends toward $60) (not sure about this).

It's tempting to move us to Bakken 5.0 as of January 21, 2021, the day the country's new CEO/CIC banned new leasing on federal land. But the ban is temporary, and we have not yet seen how the rest of the criteria play out. I'm not sure if I should include global geopolitical events as part of the definition, but we'll see.

For now, we remain in Bakken 4.0.

82e. Bakken 4.5 -- rolling out Bakken 4.5. December 12, 2021.

82f. Bakken 5.0 -- Bakken has reached maturity, May 24, 2022. 

82g. Bakken 5.5 -- January 22, 2023. Moving to longer laterals; three-mile laterals; operators moving to Tier 2 and Tier 3. 

82h. Bakken 6.0 -- June 22, 2024. Lynn Helms -- two new technologies; moving to 4-mile laterals and switchbacks. As of April 20, 2025, haven't seen much (any?) of this in the Bakken.

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Bakken 101: across all "eras."

Unconventional 1.0; 2.0; and, 3.0 -- WoodMac