Sunday, December 12, 2021

The Bruin FB Belford Wells -- Rolling Out Bakken 4.5 -- December 12, 2021

Updates

December 20, 2021, full note here:

  • 36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03775, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 123K 10/21; FracFocus reports two fracks, which we've discussed before:
    • first frack, 5/11/21 - 5/22/21: 8.367 million gallons of water, 83.04421% water by mass; 10.22434% sand by mass;
    • second frack, 5/11/21 - 5/22/21; 8.939 million gallons of water; 83.04421% water by mass; 10.22434% sand by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2021301858318622102982584222537305
BAKKEN9-202113128801273482571416212223146
BAKKEN8-20213131390313463667039998379391241
BAKKEN7-20212940500405414020743835424321403
BAKKEN6-20211119332190162192217927163831209

December 17, 2021
: an update with frack data. 

Later, 4:29 p.m. CT: a reader replied to the "pad drilling" issue --

A few years back, some industry executive was explaining some of the economics behind not only 4 to 6 wells per pad simultaneously being drilled/completed, but also the then-emerging trend of simultaneously developing 3 to 4 pads in close proximity.

Interesting perspective. 
Taking those six Bruin wells that you have noted for example, at $6 million per well, Bruin would have 'pre-paid' $36 million before any revenue came back. 
With a cumulative production just over half a million barrels (~511,000) and $50/bbl pricing, Bruin would have already grossed about $25 million in oil revenue and $2 million from the gas ... roughly. 
It may take till the end of a year, but Bruin may be 'in the money' after 12 month's time.

For operators doing this on, say, four pads simultaneously, the capital outlay could approach $150 million prior to any revenue coming in. 
Definitely a game for the Big Boys. 
(That executive also stressed that the logistics could be daunting trying to develop 16/20 wells simultaneously, but the 'discount/efficiencies' could be well worth it when giving a LOT of business to the chosen oil field service contractors).

By the way, there's another way for smaller companies like Bruin to pay for the fracking. [The drilling costs are almost inconsequential compared to everything else, especially fracking.] Some operators will share in the production with the servicing / fracking companies to pay off the costs of the work. I've seen that talked about elsewhere -- overseas? I don't know if it's being done in the Bakken?  

Regardless, once the cash flow starts, it becomes easier to tackle the next big project. 

Original Post

Well, well, well -- no pun intended. LOL. I've been waiting to roll out Bakken 4.5, and today is the day. Rolling out Bakken 4.5.  

Bakken 4.5 is defined as the period in which we, as observers, move from a focus on single-well completions, and start to focus on pad drilling. Yes, pad drilling has been going on for several years now, but mostly by a handful of operators. Now, it has become the norm for all operators. 

In fact, if an operator is not pad drilling, that operator may not be around for long. It's just too inefficient and expensive not to be pad drilling (infill / development wells; this does not apply to exploratory wells). 

But before moving into Bakken 4.5 I wanted to see:

  • a recovery in the price of oil, which we have; and,
  • the "end" of Covid-19 determining activity in the shale plays; and, perhaps to some extent,
  • shale-operator CAPEX discipline

If the third "factor" (shale-operator CAPEX discipline) moved to hyper-activity / insane CAPEX increases, then I would move directly to Bakken 5.0.

These are incredibly good wells. I can't remember my early thoughts on the Eagle Nest oil field. Let's look together. The Eagle Nest is tracked here, but like all fields, I have not kept up with the updates. But that's fine. The original posts were done during the boom. March 25, 2012, the original assessment:

Forty-four sections as of March, 2012. A very active field with four rigs on site as of March, 2012. The field is noted for its multi-well pads. Major operator is Petro-Hunt. One of the most scenic highways in North Dakota, state highway 22, pretty much splits the field in half, east half from west half.  This is going to be a great field.

**********************************************
The Bruin FB Belford Wells

The wells

  • 22300, SI/A, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-2T, Eagle Nest, 33-025-01602, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 23K 10/21; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2021319772974875941194690991281
BAKKEN9-2021251168811627857013973108311143
BAKKEN8-2021516011600153551263762403
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20212001375830919897
  • 22301, SI/A, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-3B, Eagle Nest, 33-025-01603, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 154K 10/21; 41K over 22 days extrapolates to 56K over 30 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20213123999239391283142918341294804
BAKKEN9-2021292559225709833938079304113209
BAKKEN8-20213131608315861656138864331993561
BAKKEN7-20212731950320042058433191289214270
BAKKEN6-202122411924064345859411112664313138
  • 36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 125K 10/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20211862222537
9-20211273412223
8-20213134637939
7-20214054142432
6-20211901616383
  • 36303, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-13T-LL, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03776, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 125K 10/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20212630239502
9-20212323131333
8-20212251226863
7-20212983031424
6-20212333521
  • 36304, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-10B, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2021139988955
9-202137341312
8-20211356412776
7-20212914326836
6-20212502915594
  • 36305, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-8T, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03778, first production, 6/21; --; t--; cum 102K 10/21; obviously, 24K over 15 days extrapolates to 48K over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20213115440154011331323138180482541
BAKKEN9-20212818805188541423826295208692202
BAKKEN8-20213119061190482327024391206332213
BAKKEN7-20213124105241363342929890260453845
BAKKEN6-20211524092237713964326627175038631
  • 36306, SI/A, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-7B, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03779; first production, 6/21, --; t--; cum 161K 10/21; 34K over 18 days extrapolates to 56K over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2021311928919241707130953243403426
BAKKEN9-2021282506325138850237416299323159
BAKKEN8-20212731726317041556939810340653654
BAKKEN7-20212950996510402614065504570778427
BAKKEN6-202118336933324437265403212648813062
  • 36307, SI/A, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-6T, Eagle Nest, first production, 10/21; t--; cum --;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20213128822874686926051864262
BAKKEN9-20216002925921192
BAKKEN8-20216004048119172
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-2021162611371825226


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