Locator: 51500B.
Idle observation: the talking heads on "Fast Money" (CNBC) tonight seemed a bit confused about the market today. Confused by Bessent's action and Warsh's challenges. It seems they are working at cross purposed. I'm confused, also, of course.
HUGE: SLB about to restart 15 oil rigs in Venezuela. RIGS, not wells. When will SLB ever return to its glory days?
The irrelevancy of the strait: Saudi Arabia has given three refineries in Europe full September oil allocations.
Bonds: CNBC continues to be all about interest rates; I'm not convinced the "Robinhood" crowd cares all that much about inflation or interest rates. The "Robinhood" crowd seems more tuned to FOMO, MOJO, the 4th (6th) industrial revolution, personalities. I'm not even sure the "Robinhood" crowd tracks the trailing P/E. I'm not sure they even know what the P/E means. But they are right: the P/E is a trailing indicator.
Laptops:- Michael Santoli: Operates primarily as CNBC Senior Markets Commentator and co-anchor of "Closing Bell: Overtime" from the Nasdaq MarketSite, with his exact personal or professional laptop brand remaining private.
- Hunch: it appears that Michael Santoli is using an Apple laptop, most likely a MacBook Pro. Color me surprised if we learn it is something different.
- Melissa Lee: Known for using a Dell laptop on air while hosting programs like "Fast Money" and "Power Lunch."
- My perspective: I'm always surprised when I find these "celebrities" using non-Apple products; individually the products are not necessarily better (although I think they are) but rather the "environmental niche." Granted, a lot of proprietary business programs run only on non-Apple computers.
SCCO:
AMGN: only 50% thi past year, but now breaking out ...
Apple (AAPL): benefited today with lower rates (barely, dropped a bit late in the day) but the big reason -- all of a sudden chips may be getting cheaper. Are we starting to see "the chip shortage" meme come to an end? If you are a capitalist, this should not be surprising. Corroborative evidence? INTC dropped 4% today.
Diesel: $7/gallon in California.
UNP had a great opening today but profit taking by end of day. My wife was shocked by the high price in California though she is only a spectator (she doesn't live in California and she doesn't drive a truck or a tractor) and her portfolio has never been better. LOL.
Some of this is blamed on Russia -- loss of refineries. Hey, what is California doing with refineries? California supplying a lot of refined product to Arizona because Arizona has zero --repeat, zero -- refineries. Quit blaming Russia. Ask Governor Newsom what he is doing to help the California consumer?
MPC: almost doubled in six months.
Antropic revenue: lapping OpenAI -- doubled (Anthropic) vs 18% gain (OpenAI). What's the difference? Govenment involvement? They both have a credibility issue but Sam Altman seems to be a bigger detriment. Quick! Name the CEO of Anthropic. Name the CEO of Palantir. Even more interesting, quick, name, Anthropic's #2 to the CEO.
Cadence: a company to watch but to date seems to be doing a poor job at telling its story to investors.
Stages of AI:
- infrastrucure / inference AI: past / present;
- physical AI: robots: present / future; the average American appears to be happy if China wins this race;
- sciences AI: the future; Moderna announcement today was clearly sciences AI; RFK, Jr, definitely want to cede this race to China.
AI? Howl at the wind, AI is here to stay. It's just a matter who wins the race.
It appears China is not going to lose this race. Where's our "JFK" presidential nominee that will say, "... and we will have three robots land on the moon and safely back home by the end of 2027"?
It appears that "all" presidential aspirants will promise to slow things down, ceding the race to China. And Americans will clap enthusiastically. In one year we've successfully turned back the clock on life-saving childhood vaccines. Imagine what we can do in the next ten years.
Look what we did with EVs? Clearly the US was in the lead a few years ago (Tesla). Now China clearly leads in global EV sales. And all driven by US government policy.
I'll be dead before it's the Chinese century, but my grandchildren won't be. My grandchildren will probably have a DSA party to contend with run by an anchor child whose mother was sent here by a foreign government to give birth. But their portfolios will look great. What a great country.
Drones? It's all LIDAR. And all LIDAR comes from China.
TGT is lapping WMT. The "Target run" is a thing. The "Walmart run" not so much. "Price investment" is the new term for price cuts, rollbacks, etc.
Global economy/trade:
- there is clearly a pivot / change in the trade of oil / natural gas / refined products from Mideast to western hemisphere;
- are we about to see a gradual shift from South Korean trade to Brazilian trade? If so, it will be subtle, but Trump is definitely a change agent and looking to favor the western hemisphere.
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Back to the Bakken
NDIC Director's Cut: June data. To be released tomorrow, August 20, 2026. Link here. Must use a non-Firefox browser. By the way, it's also on YouTube, link here. Again, today, still last month's Director's Cut -- the data for June, 2026, will be released tomorrow after 10:30.
WTI: $84.21.
Active rigs in the Bakken: 34.
Over time, Kraken continues to acquire Neptune Operating wells.
Five new permits, #43227 - #43229, inclusive --
- 43227, conf, Oasis, Iverson 5202 43-19 2B, wildcat. Glass Bluff, SWSE 19-152-102, to be sited 772 FSL and 1706 FEL; an earlier Oasis/Iverson well was drilled in 2012 but has been on AB status since mid-2025.
- 43228, conf, Petro-Hunt, Kadrmas 143-98-10A-22-2H, NENE 10-143-98, Little Knife, Billings County, to be sited 350 FNL 1123 FEL;
- 43229, conf, Petro-Hunt, PH 143-98-3D-27-1H, NENE 10-143-98, Little Knife, Billings County, to be sited 350 FNL 1024 FEL;
- 43230, conf, Petro-Hunt, PH 143-98-3D-27-2H, NENE 10-143-98, Little Knife, Billings County, to be sited 350 FNL 958 FEL;
- 43231, conf, True Oil, Superior Federal, NENW 32-148-101, Bowline, McKenzie County, to be sited 675 FNL 2618 FWL;
See Oasis Iverson below:
Six renewed permits:
- Oasis: six Cindy Blikre permits, Lindahl oil field, lot 3, section 2-158-95. All are still on confidential.
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 42201, 969, Rockport Energy, Merritt 18-19-30 1H, McKenzie County;
- 42202, 950, Rockport Energy, Merritt 18-19-30 2H, McKenzie County;
- 42203, 1,135, Rockport Energy, Annie 7-6-31 2H, McKenzie County;
For those who have forgotten about Rockport -- from "Bakken Ops"page (I have not confirmed whether links below still work):
- website;
- well search, July 9, 2024: four permits, all in Ranch Coulee;
- 40731, 40755, 40823, 40909,
- second post, July 9, 2024:
- first post, May 8, 2024.
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Disclaimer
Briefly:
I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken. I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM. Longer version here.
