Tuesday, January 4, 2022

The Answer To That Question -- January 4, 2022

The question: what's a mineral acre in McKenzie County going for these days?

See this post

The other day, it was announced that Lime Rock was buying Abraxas' assets in North Dakota. The initial article did not include the number of net mineral acres. 

Now we have all of that, in the update at the link above. 

I also mentioned that in the original post it was not stated how many mineral acres in North Dakota were acquired but I opined that it was unlikely to be more than 10,000. Pretty good for a wild ass guess. It turns out it was only 3,500 acres.

************************
Answer To That Other Question

Is Dean Winters back? If so, what happened? Why was he gone? And, now, why is he back? 

Inquiring minds want to know.

Answer: yes, he's back and there's a story there but I'll let readers have a chance before I give it away.

The Road To New England -- January 4, 2022

Link here.

Senator Warren on top of this:

Interesting -- Commodities -- 2021

Alex Kimani lists the "ten best performing commodities of 2021."

Here are  a bunch of commodities randomly listed. 

See if you can pick the ten best performing commodities in 2021.

Then, for extra credit, put them in order, best performing to least best performing.

Here goes. 

Again, first challenge -- pick top ten from the list below:

  • crude oil, Brent
  • crude oil, WTI
  • natural gas (methane)
  • distillate fuel
  • aviation fuel
  • propane
  • butane
  • ethane
  • coffee
  • wheat
  • corn
  • ethanol
  • hops
  • oats
  • alfalfa
  • soybeans
  • sunflower seeds / sunflower oil
  • canola
  • peas / lentils
  • honey
  • coffee
  • iron/steel
  • coal
  • lignite
  • copper
  • lithium
  • magnesium
  • gold
  • silver
  • tin
  • aluminum
  • platinum
  • sand / silica (fracking sand)
  • sand / silica (semiconductor chips)
  • water
  • potash
  • cotton
  • wool
  • pork bellies
  • ground beef

At this link are the ten best performing commodities in 2021.

And So It Goes -- January 4, 2022

 
Link here.

One Well Leads To Another Leads To Another -- January 4, 2021

I might spend all of fifty seconds (minimum) or five minutes (maximum) to find something of interest about the Bakken. Often it's simply connecting a few dots, or following one well to another to another well. That's the case with this well. 

Look at the IP of this well. 129.

Look when this well was originally drilled. 2010.

Look when this well showed new life. 2021.

It's at this point I would normally point out what this means, but it's so obvious I won't point it out again.  

The well:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20213024253242801390337945370610
BAKKEN10-20213133008329762021839638385350
BAKKEN9-2021302550025647243782836627396172
BAKKEN8-2021293636335998991545185448761971
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-2021231070142231915961178223
BAKKEN2-2021281431134533721581624286
BAKKEN1-2021291438147032321851262673
BAKKEN12-2020301308125126616841152283

Re-Posting An Incredible MRO Well With Two Neighboring Wells Now Producing -- January 4, 2022

Let's see:

  • 2,000 bbls of oil per month jumps to 40,000 bbls of oil per month and holds for four months:
  • 40,000 / 2,000 = 20x jump in production that has held for several months
  • previously posted; updated;

The well:

  • 18230, 552, MRO, Fisher USA 21-5H, Reunion Bay, t11/09; cum 471K 11/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20213038482385632863949590465860
BAKKEN10-20212727469272092604531739295970
BAKKEN9-20213039331397755409747402443080
BAKKEN8-20212038379377589140240602365901676
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-202116823124522479062919
BAKKEN3-20213117491849346164913590
BAKKEN2-2021281684158732817351197270

The two new wells next to this older well:

  • 37856, loc/NC, MRO, Evans USA 11-5TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 113K 11/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20212929112292842568736858345930
BAKKEN10-20212927703275142902432988308320
BAKKEN9-20212956135558835749063573592190
BAKKEN8-202110026000
  • 37857, loc/NC, MRO, Morgan USA 21-5TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 92K 11/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20213035069352132905145512434350
BAKKEN10-20213029461291153439534895331100
BAKKEN9-20211927277271543555928740271940
BAKKEN8-20213002303000

The MRO Medicine Crow Pad In Reunion Bay -- AKA The MRO A-J-HW-MC Pad

The MRO Medicine Crow pad, or the MRO A-J-HW-MC pad:

  • 37654, drl/NC, MRO, Alberta USA 31-5TFH Reunion Bay, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 87K 11/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20213028356284633869935184333240
BAKKEN10-20213031158311014468734317324830
BAKKEN9-20212027651273765159529495279850
BAKKEN8-202120010400
  • 37655, drl/NC, MRO, Joba USA 31-5H, Reunion Bay, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 181K 11/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20213041307415972361147858463400
BAKKEN10-20212958085582773233966764649330
BAKKEN9-20213081381805716664376331738900
BAKKEN8-2021100041041
  • 37656, 4,981, MRO, Howling Wolf USA 31-5TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 167K 11/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20213041310415022960362168605280
BAKKEN10-20213048828486873778156654551310
BAKKEN9-20212838052385121738746555453670
BAKKEN8-2021143908538246378053469731808592
  • 37657, drl/NC, MRO, Medicine Crow USA 21-5H, Reunion Bay, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 193K 11/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20213035163352642198454604531930
BAKKEN10-20213035645359513007839813387160
BAKKEN9-20213068853693176283981082789460
BAKKEN8-20211553576524265588649340449111274

The WPX Howling Wolf Wells In Wolf Bay -- January 4, 2022

The WPX Howling Wolf wells in Wolf Bay:

  • 23778, 1,211, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HC, Wolf Bay, t2/13; cum 310K 11/21;
  • 34494, 2,115, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HF, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 245K 11/21;
  • 34051, 3,477, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HD, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 226K 11/21;
  • 34815, 2,328, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HIL, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 371K 11/21;
  • 34053, 2,115, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HT, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 298K 11/21;
  • 34495, 2,429, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HY, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 347K 11/21;

API Data: Crude Oil With A Significant Draw But Other Products Build -- January 4, 2022

This is interesting. Doing more with less? Demand destruction? Or perhaps simply seasonal? "Focus on Fracking," Sunday night, will address all of this. I will wait to see the EIA data to be released tomorrow. But apparently from the API today: link here.


A Closer Look At The Ten DUCs Reported As Completed Today -- January 4, 2022

The MRO Howling Wolf well in Reunion Bay. There are seven Howling Wolf wells. I have yet to start a separate post for these seven wells. I will do that later. Of the seven Howling Wolf wells, the most recent one, #37656, looks like it may be the best one, certainly it is with initial production. 

  • 37656, 4,981, MRO, Howling Wolf USA 31-5TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 167K 11/21; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20213041310415022960362168605280
BAKKEN10-20213048828486873778156654551310
BAKKEN9-20212838052385121738746555453670
BAKKEN8-2021143908538246378053469731808592

The WPX wells in Spotted Horn, the Charles Blackhawk are tracked here and the Crosby Chase wells are tracked here. Both sites now need to be updated.

  • 37305, 1,715, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HZ, Spotted Horn, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 210K 11/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202130279812799920453671923476832178
BAKKEN10-20213123132230411724226301211164773
BAKKEN9-202130285212842521528318581905812375
BAKKEN8-20213125179251792179926111201625938
BAKKEN7-202131477974812840172495662858120985
BAKKEN6-20213050888509194581263797558152611
BAKKEN5-202146275591357132100
  • 37307, 1,831, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HY, Spotted Horn, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 229K 11/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202130325423251421989779144022737423
BAKKEN10-20213120869207961445423686188904448
BAKKEN9-202130286382854220602311581864012093
BAKKEN8-20213132268322682932033398250258362
BAKKEN7-202131542965459545620561962080335393
BAKKEN6-20213045961465114317057062457447410
BAKKEN5-202181471713868131254300
  • 22652, 1,788, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HC, Heart Butte, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 69K 11/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20213026666267593673115141149870
BAKKEN10-20213135136349293970723120210392081
BAKKEN9-202130682768274495341321811232
  • 37843, 1,330, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HY, Heart Butte, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 73K 11/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20213023470235744100413505133520
BAKKEN10-20213134716345126106818295154462849
BAKKEN9-20213015205152051992513344133440
  • 37842, 668, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HDL, Heart Butte, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 90K 11/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2021302988029880932015323153230
BAKKEN10-20213139245392452096918949189490
BAKKEN9-2021302066020660196281033082692061

Grayson Mill Operating in Last Chance:

There were six wells on this Marcia pad. The two earlier Marcia wells (#22631 and #22632) are both on the AB (abandoned list). I have seen wells on the AB list come back into production, but it's rare. The four other wells on this pad, which are about a half-mile to the southeast of CLR's excellent Anna wells. 

  • 36218, 2,636, Grayson Mill Operating (Equinor), Jake 2-11F XW 1H, Last Chance, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 22K over 12 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20211222140218071576123530204253105
  • 36038, 4,632, Grayson Mill Operating (Equinor), Marcia 3-10F XW 1H, Last Chance, no production data,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20212492341834681416421022062
  • 36036, 2,185, Grayson Mill Operating (Equinor), Marcia 3-10 6H, Last Chance, minimal production data,
  • 36037, 2.014, Grayson Mill Operating (Equinor), Marcia 3-10 5H, Last Chance, no production data,

Ten DUCs Reported As Completed, Active Rigs At Thirty-Two; WTI At $77 -- January 4, 2022

The road to New England: link here

MPC: I may have to add a new category to the blog -- stocks I used to hate but love now or stocks I lucked into. LOL. 

I remember distinctly some years ago telling myself, "never, never, never invest / trade in refiners." 
About six months ago, I violated that rule and acquired a nice position in MPC. I remember exactly when I bought it and why I bought it. 
Shortly after that I had buyer's remorse and remembered one of my cardinal rules (to never buy refining stocks). But my inertia prevented me from selling MPC and I simply kept it, which bugged me every day, and then I sort of forgot about it. But all of a sudden, recommendations for MPC are showing up everywhere. 
I recently posted a link to an article in which MPC and ADM announced a joint venture to manufacture soybean oil to meet the demand for renewable diesel fuel; the facility will be in Spiritwood, ND.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$77.00
1/4/202201/04/202101/04/202001/04/201901/04/2018
Active Rigs3213556354

No new permits.

Ten producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36218, 2,636, Grayson Mill Operating (Equinor), Jake 2-11F XW 1H, Last Chance, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 22K over 12 days;
  • 37305, 1,715, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HZ, Spotted Horn, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 210K 11/21;
  • 37307, 1,831, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HY, Spotted Horn, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 229K 11/21;
  • 36038, 4,632, Grayson Mill Operating (Equinor), Marcia 3-10F XW 1H, Last Chance, no production data,
  • 36036, 2,185, Grayson Mill Operating (Equinor), Marcia 3-10 6H, Last Chance, minimal production data,
  • 36037, 2.014, Grayson Mill Operating (Equinor), Marcia 3-10 5H, Last Chance, no production data,
  • 22652, 1,788, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HC, Heart Butte, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 69K 11/21;
  • 37843, 1,330, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HY, Heart Butte, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 73K 11/21;
  • 37842, 668, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HDL, Heart Butte, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 90K 11/21;
  • 37656, 4,981, MRO, Howling Wolf USA 31-5TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 167K 11/21;

US Moves -- State-To-State Move Studies -- January 4, 2022

The studies:

Buybacks And Outstanding Shares -- BRK-A -- Warren Buffett -- January 4, 2022

Link here

For all his talk about buybacks, it appears to be "all hat and no cattle":

Compare with Apple, Inc.

Connecting The Dots And A Visit To A Fortune Teller -- January 4, 2022

On the CNBC crawler that caught my attention:

  • NASDAQ: down 300 points
  • UNP: up $5.50
  • SRE: up $3.50
  • CVX: up $2.25

So, what's going on?

I was talking to an extended family member last night with regard to automobiles. His wife just bought a new car, and he's looking to buy a new pickup truck, but will probably have to wait until next year. He's quite "negative" when it comes to Big Auto -- he thinks they're all crooks -- LOL -- but that's neither here nor there. Actually I guess it's "there" because he doesn't live in Texas. But I digress.

I told him that I suspect that six months from now the "dam will break" and there will be such a huge supply of automobiles and trucks there will be no problem finding the truck he wants. I'm not convinced prices will come down all that much but the supply will be incredible. He doubted me, but I know I'm correct. The tea leaves have told me that. And that also means a lot of used cars will also end up on the market.

And late 2022, and going into 2023, we're going to see the same thing with EVs. No less than thirty-seven auto manufacturers will be bringing EVs to market and they've all said they will start to bring those cars to market NLT 2023. So, "NLT 2023" begins in 2022. Perhaps late 2022.

Our discussion then turned to the NFL.

What I did not mention in that telephone conversation last night was that all those cars coming to market will get there by rail. 

That explains UNP. 

Everything else sort of makes sense. Utilities being driven by inflation fears. Big Oil being driven by price of crude oil and OPEC's "inshallah" production policy announced today. 

NASDAQ down 300 points; Dow up 300 points. Karma. Or as they say on CNBC, sector rotation. 

Oh, back to UNP. One wonders if coal shipments to west coast to export to Asia might also be driving UNP. I don't know. Maybe I should do some due diligence, or as they tweet, I should DSDD.

On my way to DSDD I checked in on Berkshire Hathaway. BRK-B is up $7.21. Whoo-hoo.

Rambling: 

Covid is knocking out a lot of folks. Airline operations have even come to a stop on occasion because note enough workers have shown up.

Question: how many folks directly involved with a commercial aircraft in mid-flight. Generally, NLT than six.

Question: how many engineers directly involved with a 110-car unit train mid-trip? Two.  

The talking head on CNBC who I like most (not Jim Cramer), his top picks for 2022: pending. I may have missed his picks. Maybe tomorrow.

The talking head on CNBC who I like second most (not Jim Cramer),  her top picks for 2022:

  • BofA: most leveraged to interest rates; not her largest bank holdings; two other banks, including Wells Fargo is a larger holding than BofA
  • Wynn Resorts: down 37% from its highs; end of pandemic; size and scale;
  • IBM: well managed; new management team; new CEO; selling some assets; re-positioning; huge cloud guy as CEO; nobody wants this stock; no one knows what they do any more; $40 billion in cash; 14x earnings;

Final picks from Fast Money Halftime Report (the hour that is my third favorite on CNBC; midday), one each from four panelists:

  • GE
  • Freeport-Mcmoran: best play, bar none, for electric infrastructure buildout
  • Marathon Petroleum:
  • Berkshire Hathaway B: the breakout is real; confirmation today.

*********************************
Interlude

One of the "things" that has really helped me over the years is visiting a fortune teller -- big in Louisiana and San Antonio, TX -- when faced with major life decisions. 

The other day my wife and I were discussing estate planning. And, of course, you know what happened next. We went into downtown Dallas to visit Madame Whoo-Hoo.

She directed her crystal ball vision to my wife:

“You need to prepare yourself to become a widow. Your husband will be murdered in a manner most gruesome before the year is done.”
My wife's response: “Will I be acquitted?”

OPEC+ Announces Continuation Of Its "Inshallah" Policy -- January 4, 2022

Sticks to plan: will add 400,000 bopd in production in February, 2022. Inshallah. 

WTI: up 1.5% on the announcement; up $1.16; trading at $77.24.

Germany: admits it needs natural gas during the transition. Link to Irina Slav

Explosion: Greta's head. 

Covid-19: the graph -- link here --

Santa Claus Rally Ends Today; WTI Trending Toward $78; Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List, And Now You Are Caught Up -- January 4, 2022

Santa Claus rally: last day today. SCR is defined as last five trading days of December and first two trading days of January. Dow surges: up almost 300 points in early trading, coming off huge day yesterday.

F: stock surges almost 7% after big gain yesterday. Announced today that it will start taking orders for the F-150 Lightning.  

F: Ford beats out Tesla as top performing car stock of 2021. Link to Charles Kennedy.

Toyota: outsells GM in the United States for the first time ever.

Covid-19: 180° turn into 2022 is off the charts -- the effort by mainstream media and the Biden administration to change the narrative -- I started reporting this last week. Nice to see folks reading the blog. Abhi Rajendran saying the same thing: notes US setting an all-time "case-record" at over one million cases yesterday and US equity market seems not to care.

Anti-Vaxxer: dead of Covid-19. Will re-post elsewhere. Thread begins with tweet from Huffington Post. If I don't die of Covid-19 -- I'm in high risk group -- need to thank my wife. Sophia got her second of two vaccinations last night.

I-95: this started yesterday afternoon; continues through this morning, although the road might be clearing. Also here.

Global LNG: US sets record -- biggest exporter of LNG in December, 2021. Edged slightly above Qatar due largely to jump in exports from Sabine Pass and Freeport. I remember vividly one reader -- years ago -- telling me this would never happen. 

Norway: another analyst saw what we reported yesterday on the blog. However, this analyst actually suggest what might be going on. Why didn't I think of that?

EU: sleepwalked into an energy crisis. Now at the mercy of Putin and the weather. Bloomberg pay wall. The latest? Germany is now reversing natural gas flow -- sending natural gas to Poland. Link here.

Savers: nice chart but interpretation wrong. Really wrong. This should be seen as really, really good news. Think Japan and last couple of decades. 

Moving: annual 2021 United Van Lines National Movers Study, link here, will re-post later:

  • moving to: top five states all have GOP governors
  • moving out: top five states all have non-GOP govenors

Fed: I'm loving it. Theme for the day on CNBC -- whether the Fed will really raise rates three times. Again, folks are reading the blog. 

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$77.47
1/4/202201/04/202101/04/202001/04/201901/04/2018
Active Rigs3213556354

Tuesday, January 4, 2022: :

  • 37900, conf, CLR, JDT Federal 24-10RH,
  • 37000, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt Federal 7-22H1

RBN Energy: standards organization's base contract is central to winter storm Uri litigation.  

In the aftermath of the massive Winter Storm Uri in February of last year and its impact on the natural gas industry, there has been a blizzard of civil and regulatory litigation. Whether it’s someone not providing contracted gas supply, not taking expensive must-take gas supply, or saying “not that contract, but this contract” where there was a big difference in pricing between the two, lawyers are having a field day with the meaning of two words: force majeure. To what extent was one party to an agreement protected from being in breach of contract because their deal said some things could be force majeure, or beyond their control? The purchase and sale of natural gas at issue in these contracts is overwhelmingly done through a standard base contract produced by the North American Energy Standards Board, or NAESB (pronounced “Nays-be,” not “Nazz-be”). In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the standard contract used for the vast majority of natural gas supply deals in the U.S. and how its provisions relate to the issues raised by last February’s Deep Freeze.