Tuesday, April 23, 2019

April 23, 2019, Part 5 -- This Doesn't Happen Often -- All-Time Record

Link here. A passing reference to President Trump and the sanctions on Iran but other than that no credit given to the current administration policies.


TSLA: expected to report after the close tomorrow, so we will have to wait all day. "Free cash flow" may be more interesting that EPS. "Free cash flow" through 2Q18 at this post. See quarterly "free cash flow, 2010 - 3Q18, at this site.


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The Planets

This is really pretty funny. It is generational. I grew up with "nine planets." Sophia will grow up with "eight planets."



The Humiliation of Pluto, John Prine

Idle Chatter - April 23, 2019

I'm in a great mood, mostly because of the great comments I get from readers. Thank you very much. You all make my day. You have no idea how much I appreciate comments from readers, and  you have no idea how much I enjoy watching the Bakken and western North Dakota / eastern Montana, in general.

Later: after posting the above short note, a reader must have realized I was looking for a bit of material -- the reader suggests this book (see first comment): https://www.amazon.com/Reasons-Vote-Democrats-Comprehensive-Guide/dp/1501180126

This Is Hilarious -- It Looks Like The NDDOT Is Reading The Blog -- April 23, 2019 -- Apparently NDDOT Doesn't Like Letting "Drivers Choose Their Own Solution"

Yesterday I noted that drivers "were on their own." LOL. See much better map than the one below at that link.

Today, NDDOT announced that it has posted a "signed detour." LOL.

Pure Politically Correctness -- Pure Craziness -- This Is The Kind Of Energy News We Get From The Deep State -- Does It Really Matter? -- April 23, 2019

Oil hits a six-month high. Trump waives waivers on Iran. Iran threatens to shut the Hormuz Strait. And what does the EIA post on twitter? Hydropower.

Hydropower in the US?


See this post.

Here's the graphic -- again, so incredibly politically correct, but technically wrong. Do you see what is wrong with this graphic? It is difficult to see on this graphic; you really have to download the image (at the link) to see the error. 


To coin a phrase, who the f*** cares about hydropower?

"Some People Did Something" On Easter -- April 23, 2019

This was all over talk radio this morning here in the DFW metroplex. I had completely missed it until it was pointed out on talk radio.

"Easter worshippers?"

No one uses that phrase Has anyone called Christians "Easter worshippers" before?

The US mainstream media simply could not call it like it was: "Muslim terrorists murder Christians." Period. Dot.


The Jig Is Up -- April 23, 2019

Earth Day: yesterday. Reality: today.

Today:
  • SRE sells its renewables portfolio.
  • NextEra posts huge loss.
NextEra Partners (NEP): big loss; unexpected;
  • consensus: the company would earn 52 cents
  • actual: lost 38 cents
  • NEP down 1.62% on a huge "up" day for the rest of the market 
  • and look at this: revenues missed by 44% -- I've never seen such a huge revenue miss
    • forecast: revenue of $316 million
    • actual: revenue of $177 million
SRE: completes $2.5 billion divestiture of US renewables and non-utility natural gas storage assets.  Link here. Three guesses what SRE did today and the first two don't count. SRE up 0.59% today. Pays 3%.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Alexa: if you don't have Alexa, consider it. I love the Echo Dot.

Oil: most of the oil companies did little today; if anything, down. Profit-taking, I assume. OXY was down slightly during the day but up a bit after hours.

Making America Great -- April 23, 2019


The NDIC Hearing Dockets For May, 2019, Have Been Posted -- Is This The End?

Updates

April 25, 2019: the reader was correct. The full agenda has now been released for May, 2019. See this link

Later, 6:49 p.m. Central Time: not to worry. I'm being told that the single case listed was an "anomaly." The NDIC is yet to post two days of cases. Not to worry. Sorry about the original note. But a huge "thank you" to the reader who reassured me that Bakken is not "going away." LOL.

Original Post 

Link here.

Wow, is this all there is?

One item on the May dockets, and it's a "continued" case? And it's a risk penalty legalese case.

Wow, I haven't seen anything so discouraging since I first started blogging.

Shadows in a mirror tell me we're through.

Shadows in a Mirror, Chris Isaak

Seven New Permits -- April 23, 2019

Active rigs:

$66.334/23/201904/23/201804/23/201704/23/201604/23/2015
Active Rigs6160492986

Seven new permits:
Operators: Newfield (6); Crescent Point Energy
Fields: Siverston; South Tobacco Garden; Rainbow;
Comments:
Newfield has a permit for a Schneiderman well in section 20-150-99, South Tobacco Garden
Newfield has permis for a 5-well Hoffmann pad in section 18-150-98, Siverston oil field
Crescent Point Energy has a permit for a Dois well in secton 30-158-98, Rainbow oil field

Some Dark Clouds On The Horizon For Bakken Bulls -- April 23, 2019 -- Natural Gas: Paying Refiners To Take It -- Minus $4.28 Per Million BTU; Apache Shuts In NG Production; Alpine High Becomes Alpine Low

I think WTL is a huge "dark cloud" for Bakken bulls.

Now this, from oilprice:
Apache Corporation said on Tuesday that it had temporarily started to delay natural gas production at its Alpine High play in the Permian in late March to mitigate the impact of the extremely low prices at the Waha hub in West Texas.

Currently, the company is deferring around 250 million cubic feet (MMcf) per day of gross gas production.

Natural gas prices at the Waha hub plummeted to record low negative levels in early April, as pipeline constraints and problems at compressor stations at one pipeline stranded gas produced in the Permian.

Spot prices at the Waha hub plunged to a record low of minus $4.28 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the first week of April.

Gas production in the Permian has been rising in lockstep with crude oil production, and even though gas takeaway capacity has attracted less media attention, pipeline constraints for natural gas are similar to those of crude oil pipeline capacity.
On a huge day for the market, Apache closed down almost 2%.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything your read here or think you may have read here.

April 23, 2019, T+11, Part 4 -- We Only Have Twelve Years -- Back in 1970 -- From Walter Cronkite -- Another Doofus

From CBS News:
CBS "This Morning" played the vintage video of Walter Cronkite in 1970 endorsing the Earth Day as “a day set aside for a nationwide outpouring of mankind seeking its own survival.” In another clip, Cronkite says: “The gravity of the message of Earth Day still came through. Act or die.”
 In the spirit of the doomsday warnings in 1970, which have since been ridiculed for over-the-top predictions, the show aired a segment praising London’s ultra-low emission zone that forces motorists to pay high fees just to drive through the center of London.
1970.
Occasional-Cortex was born in 1989.

Occasional-Cortex-Mini-Me

This is why I love the blog. This video above was originally posted only one or two days ago. It quickly rose to the top 10 posts on my blog. LOL. You go, girl.

My Brother-In-Law Thinks California Gasoline Prices Are High -- He Hasn't Seen Anything Yet -- April 23, 2019, T+11, Part 3

By the way, this is just one reason President Trump waived waivers. LOL.

Remember: there is only state in the union that is dependent on OPEC (Saudi Arabian) oil and the OPEC basket is priced $5 to $10/bbl higher than WTI. This is not rocket science.

President Trump remains the smartest "politician" in the room.

A note to a reader:
Each progressive politician has to do "one better" than his/her predecessor.

Jerry Brown banned off-shore and anything related to off-shore.

His predecessor can do only one thing to do "one better": ban on-shore.
The article: from The San Luis Obispo Tribune --
Will Newsom end oil drilling in California?
Many environmentalists are betting yes.
California’s legacy of oil drilling should be just that, many environmentalists argue – relegated to the history books.
They are urging Gov. Gavin Newsom to ban new oil and gas drilling in California and completely phase out fossil fuel extraction in one of the nation’s top petroleum-producing – and gasoline-consuming – states.
At the least, they want the state to impose buffer zones prohibiting new oil and gas wells near schools, hospitals and residential neighborhoods and also require monitoring for potentially hazardous emissions from abandoned or plugged wells, proposals already being considered by state lawmakers.
This is so interesting to follow. This speaks volumes. This tells me the "elites" still feel that the price of gasoline is still not "high enough" in California. 

Enerplus Wells Sited In Lot 1 - Section 3 - 148 - 94 -- "The Wild Kingdom"

The graphic:


The wells (to be updated later):

Enerplus' "Wild Beast" pad
  • 36342, loc, Enerplu, Gnu
  • 36343, loc, Enerplu, Addax
  • 36344, loc, Enerplu, Camel
  • 36345, loc, Enerplu, Genet

  • 21754, 654, Enerplus, Grouper 149-94-36D-25H, Squaw Creek, t7/12; cum 275K 2/19;
  • 21755, conf, Enerplus, Walleye
  • 21756, conf, Enerplus, Giraffe
  • 21757, 769, Enerplus, Impala 149-94-03B-10-1H, McGregory Buttes, t7/12; cum 237K 2/19;

  • 36274, loc, Enerplus, Salmon
  • 36275, loc, Enerplus, Sturgeon
  • 36276, loc, Enerplus, Lemur
  • 36277, loc, Enerplus, Gazelle
  • 36278, loc, Enerplus, Fossa
  • 36279, loc, Enerplus,Aardwolf
  • 36280, loc, Enerplus,Meerkat
  • 36281, loc, Enerplus, Elephant
  • 36282, loc, Enerplus, Warthog
  • 36283, loc, Enerplus, Zebra

  • 21785, 830, Enerplus, Jackal 149-93-31A-30-1H, Mandaree, t6/12; cum 290K 2/19;
  • 21784, 599, Enerplus, Lion149-93-31A-30-2H TF, Mandaree, t6/12; cum 255K 2/19;
  • 21783, 831, Enerplus, Rhino 148-94-03A-10-3H, McGregory Buttes, t7/12; cum 264K 2/19;
  • 21782, 383, Enerplus, Hippo 148-94-03A-10-4H TF, McGregory Buttes, t7/12; cum 166K 2/19;

April 23, 2019, Part 2 -- Most Recent Democrat Presidential Polling

Link here.
  • Sanders down to 22%; earlier this month Emerson poll had Sanders ahead by 5 points;
  • Biden up to 29%
  • Beto fading: goes to fourth, at 7.4%, behind Kamala, at 8.2%
  • Buttigieg: gaining on Kamala, Beto, at 6.8%
  • Pocahontas at 6%
  • one could argue that Kamala, Beto, Buttigieg, and Pocahontas all tied, margin of error
  • only 11 candidates polling at 1% or better; threshold for debate; 11 is very manageable

Making America Great: US To Be Net Exporter Of Gasoline This Summer -- April 23, 2019

I assume this means that refiners are getting better prices for their refined products overseas than stateside?

Form Platts, data points:
  • US refining margins trended higher last week
  • EIA forecasts the US to be a net exporter of 90,000 bgpd during the summer driving season
  • if that happens, first time that US would be a net gasoline exporter for a whole summer since 1960
  • refinery outages and maintenance could "upend" forecasts
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have possibly read here.

The market, at opening, market up but look at all the profit-taking; slight sector rotation:
  • Dow: up 30 points
  • WTI: $66.12
  • Tesla reports tomorrow; loss expected; MuskMelon talking robots
    • TSLA fell more than $10 yesterday; down another $2.00 today
  • Anadarko: up 12 cents;
  • Apache: up 3.4% yesterday;  down 24 cents today;
  • CVX: down 13 cents today; profit taking;
  • EOG: after closing up $3.20 yesterday,  down 64 cents today; profit taking;
  • COP: down 3 cents today;
  • OXY: gained 2% yesterday; down 1.7% today;
  • UNP: after gaining another $1.06 yesterday, down 70 cents;
  • JAG: up 28 cents yesterday or about 2.6%; down 11 cents at the open;
  • NOG: up 12 cents yesterday (almost 5%);  wow, up another 9 today; completely unexpected; trading; really, really surprising considering news yesterday; in round numbers, WLL, 100,000 boepd; NOG, 40,000 boepd? I'm sure I'm under-reporting WLL and over-reporting NOG, but I may not be far off; 
  • WLL: trading at $30; a $2.7 billion market cap; NOG, a $1 billion market cap;

April 23, 2019, T+11, Part 1 -- NOG Added Almost 5% Yesterday; Up Another 4% In Pre-Market Trading -- Completely Unexpected Following Yesterday's News

Still lurking: Occidental wanted Anadarko until talks cut short by Chevron bid.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Fitzsimmons: reminder. In case you missed it, read "COP vs EOG" from yesterday.

Market, pre-market trading:
  • WTI: $66
  • Tesla reports tomorrow; loss expected; MuskMelon talking robots
    • TSLA fell more than $10 yesterday; down another $3.20 today
  • Anadarko: up 44 cents; about 0.7%
  • Apache: up 3.4% yesterday; up about half a percent this morning;
  • CVX: down 3 cents; at $121.87;
  • EOG: after closing up $3.20 yesterday, up another half a percent today;
  • COP: up fourteen cents pre-market 
  • OXY: gained 2% yesterday; n/d yet today
  • UNP: after gaining another $1.06 yesterday, up 6 cents today;
  • JAG: up 28 cents yesterday or about 2.6%; n/d yet today
  • NOG: up 12 cents yesterday (almost 5%); now adding another 10 cents (3.7%) in pre-market trading; really, really surprising considering news yesterday; in round numbers, WLL, 100,000 boepd; NOG, 40,000 boepd? I'm sure I'm under-reporting WLL and over-reporting NOG, but I may not be far off; 
  • WLL: trading at $30; a $2.7 billion market cap; NOG, a $1 billion market cap;
Earth Day: I'm sure it was a big day on college campuses around the US yesterday, but, wow, I didn't see a thing / read anything about Earth Day. I know the Japanese restaurant we went to yesterday made sure we had enough straws for our water.

Exactly my thoughts: Elizabeth Warren $640 billion plan to wipe out all student debt.


Let's just start with a cut in the interest rate on student loans. Cut the rate from 6% to 5% or go all the way to zero.

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WSJ Headlines

From the newspaper today:
  • VP Pence: has not released any tax returns since becoming VP; OMG
  • Syria facing worsening fuel shortage; didn't see that coming;
  • Screen time
  • two serious foreign policy problems are taking shape: Iran, North Korea
  • confidence over retirement finances hits all-time highs (would we have seen this headline under a Hillary presidency?)
  • op-ed: the Democrats' debate debacle  (the DNC Fox News ban on debates is the wild card; Dem candidates needed a "safe space" -- and Fox News was not "it")
  • Harley Davidson's sales weaken
  • Musk Melon, pulls new demand lever -- robotic taxes by next year -- investors aren't falling for charade
  • China's banks are running out of dollars (we talked about this, maybe a year ago?)
  • Cain drops bid for Fed board seat
  • measles cases in US continue to climb
  • and this will get the NoDaks excited: it's April in Houston, must be curling season
That's how slow the news is today. 

Welcome to my life with Sophia:


The bigger "story": Sophia competing with me for use of my computer. LOL. And she resets the settings.

SDI To Build $3 Billion Steel Mill Along Gulf Coast; North Dakota Active Rigs At 62 -- April 23, 2019

Markets caught off guard: oil surges 2.7%; close to a 6-month high. It's a false narrative but it is what it is. 30-second sound bite:
Making America great: huge new steel mill to be built along Gulf coast --
  • Indiana-based steelmaker Steel Dynamics (SDI)
  • $1.8 billion project
  • flat-rolled mill; 3 million short tons/year
  • site choices narrowed to Texas, Louisiana
  • flat-rolled steel up to 84 inches wide and one inch thick
  • Corpus Christi location: environmental permits to take up to a year
  • in addition, a new 400,000 short-ton hot-dipped galvanized (HDG) line at its Columbus, OH, operation
    • that upgrade will cut production in half but will be made up in the new Gulf coast plant
  • $30/short ton advantage along Gulf coast
  • article doesn't say why it's cheaper to roll steel along the Gulf coast but I will give you three guesses and the first two don't count
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Back to the Bakken

No wells coming off confidential list today -- 

Active rigs:

$66.004/23/201904/23/201804/23/201704/23/201604/23/2015
Active Rigs6260492986

RBN Energy: US exports transform NGL markets. This is a great article -- a must-read. Archived.
U.S. propane is fanning out across the planet, with export volumes now triple those of any other country.  The global LPG market today is dominated by cargoes shipped from U.S. ports. Buyers from Mexico to South Korea can’t make a move without considering conditions on the Houston Ship Channel or pipeline constraints in Pennsylvania. But an interconnected market is a two-way street. U.S. propane prices are now influenced more by the weather in Europe and Asia than by the weather in Wisconsin or New Hampshire. And it’s not only propane. All NGLs are experiencing growth in U.S. export volumes, with huge implications for infrastructure, capacity constraints and, of course, prices.