Locator: 48186FAMILY.
She is simply amazing.
Our other granddaughter is in Washington, DC, this summer, having been accepted to an incredibly competitive internship. Most important thing for folks between the age of twelve years and thirty-two years of age: see and do as much as possible and not worry about "working." Don't take that out of context.
*****************************
I'll Meet You At Midnight.
Locator: 48185BIDEN.
Can't wait to see Peggy Noonan's next column.
Posted simply for the archives.
If Joe Biden does not drop out, the DNC Convention inside is going to be incredibly somber, depressing, compared to the RND Convention inside. I have no idea what the DNC Convention will bring outside.
Locator: 48184SHOOTING.
The Director, Secret Service, herself, nationally-televised interview had the story wrong -- either she lied (unlikely) or she was incorrectly briefed by her own folks.
When nominated for the job, she said her #1 priority was making the SS more diversified. Protecting the president, apparently, was not her #1 priority.
******************************
Why Not?
What is it about rolling skates ...?
Be sure to read the comments at the link. What insane choreography.
Locator: 48183INV.
I sure hope folks are paying attention. This could be one of the biggest opportunities of an investing lifetime.
Data points to follow.
Apple.
Netflix. Link here.
TSM.
The Atlantic headline today.
Two most important people on CNBC right now: Josh Brown and Jim Cramer.
Quick: what are you paying for a 5.5-oz can of sour cream and onion Pringles? Price can range from a dollar to $4.79.
Mine: $1.75. Look at that Instacart ... and yes, that's a 5.5-ounce cylinder. $4.79 vs $1.00 at Walmart. Maybe $2.00. I might have to ride my bike to Walmart tomorrow. By the way, anyone following WMT today.
I haven't had Pringles in ages, but when I saw the price, two for $3.49, it was a no-brainer.
WMT:
You know, it's funny. That MLB analogy (or something similar could be a great model for a high school finance course). Just saying.
**********************
Rambling On Investing
We will start here, with baseball:
The MLB club team: 28 players, with a limit of 14 pitchers.
The farm team / the minor leagues / the major league reserve list: 40 players.
I watch CNBC religiously
-- well, at least for the last two years -- I very seldom actually
watch five or six hours on any given day, but maybe once a week, I will
watch three hours in one day, but religiously I try to catch two
one-hour shows each day: the Jim Cramer show first thing in the morning,
and the half-time report, mid-day.
Investing and the MLB: lessons an investor can learn from the MLB, including the new rules to speed up the game.
CNBC provides holdings by some of their contributors, including those on the "Halftime Report." Some have a few; some have a lot. Some are investors; some are traders; some do a bit of both.
In fact, the "60-40" rule --which applies the the equity - bond mix is better suited for one's portfolio: 60% investing; 40% trading.
I like to think as myself as an investor, 100%, but in fact, I'm probably closer to 80-20, although even the 20% is bought with a long-term horizon in mind.
So, having said, like the MLB, I like to hold about twenty equities in my long-term accounts, and about 20 companies being followed but not yet owned, but ready to be called up at a minute's notice. If a "new" equity is "called up" I like to sell something to keep my portfolio in the 20-ticker ballpark. No pun intended.
In general, among the 20, I do not include the legacy holdings that I have had so long that it makes almost no sense to sell them as long as they remain great companies. With dividends over 40+ years, many of my oldest holdings -- still very good companies -- are trending toward a cost basis of $0.
Oh, I almost forgot: the MLB's new rules to speed up the game. One of the bigger lessons I've learned over forty years of investing: the downside of holding onto losers way too long. And waiting too long to bring up great companies in the reserves when they've got MOJO.
Very important: watch those forty equities in the reserves, and be ready to invest when they get hot. If one is fully invested and doesn't have the cash necessary to buy, two options: a) raise money through tax loss harvesting; and/or, b) buying on margin. If I buy on margin it's with the expectation I will have the cash within seven days. Things have gotten easier since Schwab announced that, in general, they will close trades in one business rather than three business days.
Locator: 48182MOVIE.
We saw the movie tonight at a special "preview" showing, courtesy of Schwab. Yeah, that Schwab.
Incredible movie. Not my genre, but I loved it. It's a great, great movie. Not for the faint-hearted.
Highly recommend. Won't play well on the small screen; need to see it on the biggest screen possible.
Biggest surprise: executive producer -- Steven Spielberg.
Locator: 48180B.
Hand-wringing:
************************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $82.82.
Active rigs: 37.
Four new permits, #40936 - #4039, inclusive:
Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
40092,
40136,
40138,
40140,
40142,
40183,
40184,
Injection well completed:
13985,
25792,
32921,
Locator: 48179SRE.
Wow, wow, wow. See this post. It's very unusual to see an electric / natural gas utility jump like this. It's probably due to the "breaking story" reported earlier today, over at CNBC. Regardless, it's fascinating. Again, see that linked post above.
This is a $140-stock that split 2-1 not too long ago, making this a $70-stock, and within last few months has trended toward $80. [10/70 = 14% in a few months -- whoo-hoo -- I think by market value, SRE is my second largest holding -- would need to check -- not worth the effort -- I'm sure my cost basis has trended towards zero after all these years -- pays over 3% --
Locator: 48178WIND.
Tag: Putin oil Russia wind
If Putin can hang on just a bit longer, the next administration will throw him a lifeline. Link here. Americans simply want less expensive gasoline.
Locator: 48177EVS.
Tag: EV narrative continues
Clearly: the EV movement is reversing direction. By now, we should be well up the S-shaped curve; she are not even getting close to the tipping point. Americans simply don't want to be tethered.
The EV narrative continues.
Ford scraps another proposed EV-manufacturing site.
Will convert it to money-maker Super Duty trucks.
Locator: 48176B.
Updating some wells.
When this well came off confidential status, as a DUC, it did not report initial production. We now have that data.
The well:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 5-2024 | 30 | 25784 | 25822 | 29325 | 50097 | 48451 | 1405 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2024 | 30 | 32207 | 32056 | 33965 | 58648 | 56598 | 1823 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 12 | 15080 | 14942 | 12684 | 32034 | 28807 | 3036 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 7 | 142 | 142 | 6020 | 401 | 182 | 198 |
Well of interest:
Petro-Hunt wells in Little Knife, from January 27, 2024:
July 18, 2024: all three wells of interest now back on line and doing very, very well; production updates:
When the BR George wells -- DUCs -- came off confidential list, initial production data not provided. Production is now being reported:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 5-2024 | 31 | 33847 | 33866 | 18165 | 63247 | 61927 | 1276 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2024 | 30 | 36791 | 36531 | 19759 | 67648 | 66522 | 1092 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 23 | 36037 | 36037 | 20421 | 66108 | 64998 | 1080 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 25 | 42107 | 42107 | 20411 | 69224 | 65770 | 3424 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6291 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 5-2024 | 31 | 26480 | 26495 | 22410 | 58410 | 57313 | 1056 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2024 | 30 | 28783 | 28580 | 24376 | 62452 | 61567 | 854 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 31 | 32619 | 32619 | 28839 | 70556 | 69546 | 978 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 29 | 39731 | 39731 | 30578 | 74599 | 73389 | 1176 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 31 | 25128 | 25128 | 19348 | 22744 | 22714 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 61 | 61 | 1922 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6218 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 5-2024 | 31 | 12277 | 12315 | 15713 | 24555 | 23903 | 632 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2024 | 30 | 17692 | 17567 | 19524 | 34555 | 34013 | 525 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 31 | 31240 | 31240 | 30110 | 60104 | 59141 | 936 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 23 | 35748 | 35748 | 29878 | 60321 | 58781 | 1513 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 31 | 25477 | 25477 | 20087 | 21558 | 21530 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 161 | 161 | 3157 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4064 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 5-2024 | 31 | 20276 | 20288 | 23348 | 37957 | 37064 | 870 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2024 | 30 | 22041 | 21885 | 25396 | 40489 | 39815 | 654 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 31 | 24977 | 24977 | 30046 | 45744 | 44975 | 749 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 29 | 30423 | 30423 | 31858 | 49614 | 47460 | 2132 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 31 | 24687 | 24687 | 23108 | 19943 | 19917 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 29 | 115 | 115 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 14 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 5-2024 | 31 | 26522 | 26538 | 19925 | 53601 | 52506 | 1057 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2024 | 30 | 28831 | 28627 | 21674 | 57288 | 56403 | 856 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 31 | 32673 | 32673 | 25642 | 64724 | 63715 | 980 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 23 | 34420 | 34420 | 23943 | 59360 | 58142 | 1191 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 31 | 25143 | 25143 | 18558 | 21984 | 21955 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 26 | 101 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 5-2024 | 31 | 22546 | 22559 | 28547 | 45092 | 44125 | 939 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2024 | 30 | 24507 | 24334 | 31052 | 48151 | 47399 | 728 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 31 | 27772 | 27772 | 36737 | 54400 | 53544 | 832 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 23 | 25864 | 25864 | 29409 | 44285 | 43250 | 1015 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 7111 | 174 | 0 | 27 |
Well of interest, #17635, still off line:
Locator: 48175AI.
Personal Investing: tracked here in a general way.
Amazon's Prime Days: set another record. Not unexpected.
TSM: up 2% today in early morning trading. Reported earnings before market open.
Locator: 48175AI.
Tag: hyperscalers data centers
Texas AI: everything's bigger in Texas. Including data centers. Link here. Will be the largest in the world.
Locator: 48174B.
Drinking game: I turned on CNBC at 8:00 a.m. CDT -- within the first minute, David Faber said "hyperscalers." LOL.
Texas AI: everything's bigger in Texas. Including data centers. Link here.
Personal investing: does it get any better than this? It's almost predictable.
RBN Energy: I'm really, really looking forward to RBN Energy's blog tomorrow.
EIA petroleum drilling report:
Cramer, first hour:
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $82.57.
Friday, July 19, 2024: 34 for the month; 34 for the quarter, 360 for the year
40257, conf, CLR, Chase 4-18H,
RBN Energy: legal battles could hinder feedgas for new LNG terminals.
U.S. LNG export capacity is poised to grow tremendously over the next few years, mostly near the Texas/Louisiana border. The gas-focused Haynesville Shale in northwestern Louisiana and northeastern Texas is a prime source of additional supply for those new and expanded terminals. But plans for new north-to-south pipelines to deliver incremental gas out of the Haynesville have been clouded by legal challenges. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the reasons for the disputes, what’s been going on recently, and the potential fallout.
