Saturday, April 4, 2015

Valuation Of The Better Bakken -- A Random Note -- April 4, 2015

A reader posted that based on his calculations, the better Bakken can be valued at about $40,000/acre.

See most recent comment at this link:

At Least It's Hard To Catch

Tweeting now:  Sierra Leone's Kailahun district records first Ebola case in months, officials say - @Reuters

Wow! Wisconsin Smothers Kentucky
Final Four -- NCAA Basketball
March Madness 

The President's Bracket

 From a college basketball expert.

Dyeing Eggs


Looking Back On A "Monster Well" With An IP Of 67 -- April 4, 2015; Also, It's Sister Well With 15 Million Lbs, 47-Stage Frack

Remember the good old days in the Bakken when we "argued" over the relevancy of an IP. Just for the fun of it, look at this well that had an IP of 67Still flowing on its own; no pump.
  • 22487, 67, EOG, Hawkeye 02-2501H, Clarks Creek, t12/13; cum 451K 2/15; ; 3-section spacing; 1,741 acres in the spacing unit; sister well to the well announced earlier with 200,000 bbls in less than 5 months; another 15,000-ft horizontal; trip gas over 4,000 units;
NDIC File No: 22487    
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 12/20/2013     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NENE 25-152-95    
Current Operator: EOG RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: HAWKEYE 02-2501H
Total Depth: 24740     Field: CLARKS CREEK
Spud Date(s):  4/21/2012 
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN         Status: F     Date: 12/20/2013     Spacing: ICO
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 451,306     Cum MCF Gas: 1024476     Cum Water: 222629
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 12/20/2013     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 67     IP MCF: 151     IP Water: 42
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare


A sister well -- 640K in in about 2.5 years; a super-long lateral; fracked in 47 stages; 15 million lbs of sand; also, look how many days this well has been off-line:
  • 22486, 2,421, EOG, Hawkeye 100-2501H, Clarks Creek (see stand-alone post); 3-section spacing (1,920 acres); will this be a long lateral (9,000 feet) or a much-talked-about-seldom-seen-super-long lateral (14,000 feet)? I'm betting the latter. If accurate, a huge "thank you" to a reader. This well is NORTHEAST of Watford City. [Turned out to be 25,101 feet long. Yes, a super-long lateral, almost 3 sections long.] Did Lynn Helms misspeak or was he misquoted in The Bismarck Tribune when he said there was a gusher NORTHWEST of Watford City? If there is still another gusher NORTHWEST of Watford City that is better than this well, we are talking some big wells in the Bakken, 47 stages; 14 million lbs of sand; t9/12; cum 640K 2/15; 
NDIC File No: 22486  
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 9/23/2012     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NENE 25-152-95    
Current Operator: EOG RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: HAWKEYE 100-2501H
Total Depth: 25101     Field: CLARKS CREEK
Spud Date(s):  4/19/2012
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10812-25101     Comp: 9/26/2012     Status: AL     Date: 7/10/2014     Spacing: ICO
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 639,846     Cum MCF Gas: 910429     Cum Water: 238223
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 9/26/2012     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 2,421     IP MCF: 5232     IP Water: 1410
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Idle Chatter By Folks Watching The Oil Market - April 4, 2015

I missed this. OilPrice reported this yesterday:
The EIA reported continued gains in oil inventory coming in slightly above expectations at 4.8MB. But for the first time this year production actually dropped 36,000BD overall and 37,000BD in the lower 48.
This runs contra to almost every media report and sell side analyst that has been spouting off that production would continue to rise thru at least 3Q rising 500,000-700,000B/D for the year.
And, as a reminder, the lower 48 production is an EIA estimate which I [the writer of this article is Leonard Brecken] guarantee will be revised downward in the coming quarters as actual data gets processed.
The oil over rail [CBR] data bears this out especially in TX where it dropped 25% recently as already reported here, while the EIA assumed production in the Permian would continue to rise. What was amazing is how shell shocked the talking head media were on this surprise turn of events. 
I didn't see the news or watch television, so I don't know how "shell-shocked" the talking head media were on this "surprise turn of events."  I do not know the particulars of the writer's "guarantee." But "guarantees" of this sort are usually worth the paper they are written on.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here This particular article and this particular site tend to be fairly superficial but it is what it is. If in fact, production continues to drop, it decreases the likelihood that WTI will stay under $53 through the end of May. 

Sleepless In Seattle

Bertha has been raised; will undergo repairs; and, inshallah, will begin drilling again in August.

Hollywood's #1 Environmentalist Buys An Island Despite Global Warming Risks That It Will Sink -- April 4, 2015

This is kind of fun.

I was curious to see who the top "green" Hollywood actors were.

Google: "Hollywood actors environmentalists"

The first hit:

#1 on the list: Leonardo DiCaprio.

Now, pair that item with this article that Don saw and sent me the link: Leonardo DiCaprio buys an island.

Remember: the only real concern with global warming is rising oceans, a foot or two, and flooding some tropical islands. 

So, there are at least three possibilities to connect those data points:
  • this explains why Leonardo DiCaprio is so concerned about global warming; he could see his new island flooded
  • he knows there is no chance in his lifetime that the oceans will rise enough to put his island in danger
  • he knows the whole global warming "thing" is a scam

Memo To Self: Check Back On This Well In Six Months -- April 4, 2015


August 7, 2016: that "UnknownXML" simply seems to be a computer error; I don't think it means a thing; still off-line but the 2/15 pool has been corrected to Tyler and all subsequent entries list the pool as the Tyler. 

April 5, 2015: a reader writes -- Marathon made the request in February to name the pool. So there will likely be a named pool for this well soon. The bigger question is "why" is MRO hasn't shut-in/begin the process to abandon this well. 
Original Post

Note the pool notation for February, 2015:
  • 26335, 18, MRO, Powell 31-27TH, Wildcat, no production data, the second Tyler well "everyone" is waiting for; t8/14; cum 502 bbls 2/15;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
File report not helpful.

Earthquakes And Fracking -- April 4, 2015; Tesla And Bentley On A Quarter-Mile Airfield

A reader provided this interesting USGS graphic showing areas of greatest risk for earthquakes in the United States.


There are two "feature" articles on Tesla in today's edition of the Wall Street Journal. The article on the back page of "The Off Duty" section, page D12, compares the Tesla Model S with the Bentley Continental GT3-R.

A man walks into a bar. Drivers take the two cars to an airfield to race.

The Tesla P85D has two acceleration modes: "Sport" and "Insane."

Obviously, for the race, the Tesla driver chose "Insane."
Mat the Tesla's accelerator and 0 - 24 mph transpires before you know what hit you, in 0.84 second. Suddenly exposed to more than 1.3 g of longitudinal acceleration, any loose items in the cabin instantly fall rearward and cellphones get sucked out of pockets and purses. 

In 3.2 seconds, the car reaches 60 mph, uncannily quiet and hydraulic, a barrel ride over Electron Falls. That's 1.4 seconds quicker than the previous P85. Tesla promises an over-the-air upgrade for the P85D that will knock it down to 3.1 seconds.

If it were an 1/8-mile comparison, the Bentley would be left for dead ... but over a quarter mile -- generally both crossed the quarter-mile stripe in under 12 seconds .. and pretty much tied. 
The Tesla P85D easily beats the Ferrari, Lambo, Porsche, and Corvette -- right up to 100 mph which takes the Tesla less than 8 seconds to reach.

If money were no object, and I didn't have three granddaughters, I would have a house on Cape Cod and a Tesla (for the summer).