Monday, March 16, 2020

EIA Dashboards Have Just Posted -- March, 2020, Data

EIA dashboards:
New-well oil production per rig (bbls/rig/day):
  • the Permian: flat, absolutely flat, at 807 bbls/rig/day (no change month-over-month)
  • the Eagle Ford: an increase from 1,448 to 1,467 bbls (up 19 bbls; about 1.3%)
  • the Bakken: an increase from 1,384 to 1,397 bbls (up 13 bbls; about 1%)
New-well gas production per rig (mcf/rig/day):
  • the Permian: flat, absolutely flat, at 1,580 mcf/rig/day (no change month-over-month)
  • the Eagle Ford: an increase from 4,936 mcf to 4,956 mcf (up 20 mcf; less than 0.5%)
  • the Bakken: an increase from 2,064 to 2,092 mcf (up 28 bbls; about 1.5%) 
It would be nice if the EIA would put the data from these three plays on one graph.


Who's Kidding Whom -- CEO Amin Nasser With Four Pinocchios -- March 16, 2020

One screenshot worth a thousand words. If accurate, it's going to be a great summer of driving for Americans.

Let's check Gas Buddy Oklahoma City before we get to the "featured" screenshot.

Gas Buddy Oklahoma City:

The "featured" screenshot from today:

North Dakota Rigs At 57 -- March 16, 2020

Someone missed the memo?

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5765584731

Three new permits, #37449 - #37451, inclusive --
  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Alger (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
  • Hess has permits for a 3-well EN-Abrahamson pad in SWSE 30-155-93, Alger oil field;
Five permits renewed:
  • Enerplus (4): four "metamorphic rock" pad wells -- Phyllite, Quartzite, Marble, and Gneiss; in Dunn County
  • Whiting: a Pronghorn permit in Billings County
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
  • 27436, SI/A, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-1HS, Charlson, Three Forks B2; API: 33-053-05600; fracked 10/22/19 - 11/14/19; 13.95 million bbls water; 91.86% water by mass; friction reducer, 0.03249;
  • from the file report:
    • introduction: target said to be the middle Bakken
    • they drilled through the upper, middle, and lower Bakken into the Three Forks
    • Three Forks: measured depth of 10,646 feet, a true vertical depth of 10,485 feet
    • lateral #1: initial targets to drill out were set at a measured depth of 10,900 feet and true vertical depth of 10,548 feet;
    • at first trip out of the hole at 18,491 feet; back on bottom a max trip gas of 2,980 units recorded; max flare of 15 feet;
    • the geologist: Charissa Arneson. While on the WHS wrestling team, there was a heavyweight wrestler, last name Arneson. It would "cool" to think that his daughter, niece, a relative was the geologist. Just reminiscing. 
    • the permit: Three Forks B2

St Greta May Have To Re-Calculate -- Isn't This About How Much We've Been Trying To Lower Global Temperature? -- March 16, 2020

So, there you have it. It's not nice to mess with Mother Nature. It turns out that a bit of global warming -- about two degrees -- is exactly what the doctor ordered, to coin a phrase. Link here.

I may have to google irony again.

St Greta: re-calculating, re-calculating, re-calculating.

The Book Page: Jimmy Hoffa

A book review at this link.

Oil Shock And Market Meltdown 2020 -- Update -- March 16, 2020

This is quite fascinating. After listening to that one-hour energy podcast and reading the 2009 Rolling Stone article on Goldman Sachs, plus everything else, it appears that this can be boiled down pretty quickly:

1. All agree that the Russians' / Rosneft response -- walk away from OPEC meeting -- precipitated this. Like WWI "we" were just waiting for the "Prince Franz Ferdinand" moment. That moment came when Russia walked away. [Russia was only being asked to cut back 300,000 bopd -- I have to verify that, it might have been 500,000 bbls; whatever it was, it was a Hitchcock McGuffin.]

2. The Russian / Rosneft response. In a binary world, only two possibilities:
  • Putin misjudged. 
  • Putin did not misjudge; Putin intended to put the world into a global financial crisis.
3. It may result in a great book; and, geo-political wonks can discuss ad nauseam on NPR how this all started, who is to blame, and whether Putin misjudged, but for the rest of us, we are now dealing with the hand [that has been] dealt [to] us. It will be interesting to see who folds, who stays in the game, who survives to play the next hand.

4. Listening to the podcast, reading the Rolling Stone article, watching the 10-year Treasury implode, last and definitely not least, watching the Federal Reserve meet on the weekend and announceing within hours another cut (to zero), suggests that this is now much more than something confined to the oil sector. The Federal Reserve might actually be concerned that the global banking system is at risk.

5. Perhaps stocking up on toilet paper is not such a dumb idea.
Additional comments and background: in progress.

First, the Columbia Energy Exchange podcast from a couple of days ago -- my takeaways as well as the podcast link itself. My hunch is that most folks will "blow off" the Rolling Stone article I'm curious if anyone has different takeaways or a different reading from the Columbia Energy Exchange than those that I posted.

Later: if Russia won't talk with Saudi Arabia, there's no way Russia will talk with the US. Saudi Arabia is in a fight for its life. I don't think a lot of folks see it coming, but it certainly looks like Russia is pushing for a global banking crisis.

Apache, EOG Announce Changes In Light Of Slumping Oil Prices -- March 16, 2020

Apache responds to low oil prices -- Rigzone -- March 13, 2020.

EOG, press release:
  • reduces 2020 capital plan 31% to $4.3 to $4.7 billion and targets flat y/y crude oil production volumes
  • revised plan generates strong returns at $30 oil price
  • 2020 capital expenditures and dividend funded with et cash from operating activities at mid-$30 oil prices for the remainder of 2020
  • includes funding for high-return drilling and targeted infrastructure, exploration and environmental projects
Statement: given the current commodity price environment, EOG has elected to reduce activity across its operating areas.
The company plans to focus its drilling operations in the Delaware Basin and South Texas Eagle Ford and continue funding projects that support the long-term value of the company, including targeted infrastructure, exploration and environmental projects. 

WTI Drops Below $30 -- Monday Morning Note: -- March 16, 2020

I just listened to the hour-long podcast linked a few days ago:  Columbia Energy Exchange -- why this oil crash is different. Too much in the presentation for a one-time "experience"; need to hear it again; it's probably the most important "thing" one can listen to right now.

  • Saudi Arabia is getting prepared for much, much worse prices ($20-oil; $12-oil);
  • low prices will get lower; and will last a lot longer than folks can imagine;
  • Russia unwilling to give up 300,000 bopd if the US did not also cut
  • Russia / Saudi: unable to agree; Saudi wants Russia to realize how bad this can get without orderly management
  • Putin may have misjudged; Russia's position was being run by Rosneft (CEO considered second-most powerful man in Russia) and Putin did not provide Rosneft "guidance"; Rosneft has wanted to do this for quite some time: destroy the US shale sector
  • but did Putin make a huge, huge miscalculation
  • much,  much bigger than the oil sector; only a minute or two devoted to it but it was most concerning: banking system and bonds (this helps explains Fed's action over the weekend)
  • natural gas has fallen $0 in Texas; no one thought that could happen to oil; one analyst suggests that could actually happen to oil -- "two black swans" one might call it --
  • sanctions on Russia, Rosneft behind the scenes may be what this is all about -- the unintended consequences of sanctions 
  • is Russia looking for a major global financial crisis? Is Russia looking reaction from US or reaction from Saudi; it seems to be more the dialogue between Russian and the US, not Russia and Saudi Arabia
  • Analysis: Columbia Energy Exchange -- why this oil crash is different. Too much in the presentation for hearing it for just one time; need to hear it again; it's probably the most important "thing" one can listen to right now
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5565584731

RBN Energy: looking at the developing bottlenecks in the Louisiana gas market
The natural gas market dynamics that were expected to turn gas flow patterns and price relationships in the Eastern U.S. on their heads and, in turn, transform supply-demand dynamics in Louisiana — including around the U.S. price benchmark Henry Hub — have come to fruition. LNG exports have surged as new liquefaction and export terminals have come online, injecting a new demand source along the Louisiana coastline.
Producers have lined up to serve that demand.
And midstreamers have worked to get the gas there, reversing and expanding existing northbound pipelines to move gas south into and through the Bayou State. Now, Louisiana’s gas market is nearing a critical juncture: the pipelines that connect the supply gateways in northern Louisiana to the demand centers along the Gulf Coast are nearing saturation. Today, we begin a series providing an update on Louisiana’s gas pipeline constraints and the projects lining up to alleviate them.

Gas production in the offshore Gulf of Mexico was steadily declining even as the need for gas supplies for LNG exports along the coast was ramping up. Historical flow patterns moving gas from offshore Louisiana north and east to Northeast and Midwest markets had flipped. A deluge of supply from the Marcellus/Utica was headed south on reversed and new pipelines, much of it bound for northern Louisiana, and production from northeastern Louisiana’s Haynesville Shale was in full growth mode after an extended plateau through the mid-2010s. With the supply influx and demand growth both bearing down on Louisiana and Henry Hub, the questions were, how would all that affect the Bayou State’s supply-demand dynamics, and could the pipeline infrastructure withstand it?
Wells Coming Off The Confidential List

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend and Monday. NDIC appears to be reporting wells that come off the confidential list on the weekend on the Friday before.

Monday, March 16, 2020: 32 for the month; 203 for the quarter, 203 for the year:
  • 34854, SI/NC, CLR, Uhlman Federal 5-7H1, 33-053-08513; Banks, 40K in 30 days;
  • 34852, 865, CLR, Kuhn 8-12HSL1, Banks, t10/19; cum 81K 1/20; 40 stages; 7.4 million lbs;
  • 34849, SI/NC, CLR, Pittsburgh 6-18H,33-053-08508, Banks, 42K in 31 days:
  • 34377, drl, White Butte Oil Operations, Jore Federal 10-12TFH,
Sunday, March 15, 2020: 27 for the month; 198 for the quarter, 198 for the year:
  • 36943, drl, CLR, LCU Jessie 3-24H, Long Creek;
  • 36942, drl, CLR, LCU Jessie 2-24H1, Long Creek;
  • 35160, 1,050, CLR, Pittsburgh 11-18H1, Banks,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 35159, 1,050, CLR, Pittsburgh 10-18H, Banks,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 35158, A, CLR, Pittsburgh 9-18H1, Banks,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Saturday, March 14, 2020: 25 for the month; 196 for the quarter, 196 for the year:
  • 34856, A, CLR, Uhlman Federal 7-7H1, Banks, t--; cum 46K 1/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 34855, A, CLR Uhlman Federal 6-7H, Banks, t--; cum 60K 1/20:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Equinor's Enderud Wells

The wells:
  • 32270, 1,392, Equinor, Enderud 9-4-3TFH, Banks, t8/19; cum 186K 1/20;
  • 30063, IA/200, Equinor, Enderud 9-4 5H, Banks, t10/18; cum 113K 7/19; remains off line 1/20;
  • 30064, IA/481, Equinor, Enderud 9-4 8TFH, Banks, t10/18; cum 102K 5/19; remains off line 1/20;
  • 19876, IA/2,879, Equinor, Enderud 9-4 1-H, Banks, t10/11; cum 343K 7/19; remains off line 1/20;
  • 20631, IA/3,166, Equinor, Enderud 9-4 2H, Banks, t9/11; cum 344K 7/19; remains off line 1/20;
  • 31911, 931, Equinor, Enderud 9-4 6H, Banks, t8/18; cum 251K 1/20;  was offline 8/19; returned to production 12/19;
  • 32260, 507, Equinor, Enderud 9-4 7TFH, Banks, t8/18; cum 118K 1/20;  was offline 87/19; returned to production 12/19;
  • 31909, 2,598, Equinor, Enderud 9-4 XE 1TFH, Banks, t8/18; cum 251K 1/20;  was offline 7/19; returned to production 12/19;
Several wells off line during much of late 2019, early 2020. No activity seen in this area on the NDIC map. I have no explanation for unusual production profile of the various Enderud wells.