Friday, June 14, 2019

RimRock With Eight New Permits -- June 14, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6162552875

Eight new permits:
  • Operator: RimRock
  • Fields: South Fork (Dunn County): Heart Butte (Dunn County)
    Comments: RimRock has permits for an 8-well Skunk Creek pad in section 2-148-93, in Heart Butte oil field, and South Fork oil field
Eleven permits renewed:
  • BR (5): five Lillibridge permits in McKenzie County
  • XTO (4): four Twin State Federal permits in McKenzie County
  • RimRock: one Two Shields Butte permit in Dunn County
  • Texakota: one H. Borstad permit in Williams County
    • 18174, conf, H. Borstad 4-6, West Tioga,
Two permits canceled:
  • Oasis: a Joplin permit and an A. Johnson permit, both in McKenzie County

North Dakota Hits New All-Time Record Production -- BOEPD -- April, 2019 Data

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and the US shale revolution.


June 18, 2019: they got it wrong. The April, 2019, data presented was preliminary; once the final numbers come out next month, one will see that April, 2019, oil production will have increased over the previous month. In addition, the preliminary data showed that natural gas production set an all-time record in North Dakota. BOEPD production set an all-time high.

 Original Post

A reader sent me the link to Lynn Helms (below). My notes were posted before I saw the Helms video.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be factual and typographical errors. I often make simple errors in arithmetic. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Wells off line for operational reasons are tracked here.

April, 2018, data here.
  • Crude oil production in April, 2019: 1,391,188 bopd (preliminary)
  • Crude oil production in March, 2019: 1,391,760 bopd (final) (preliminary was: 1,390,138 bopd, so it's very likely "final" April, 2019, will be closer to 1,392,810 bopd)
  • Delta (month-over-month; April-over-March)
    • decrease, month-over-month: - 572 bopd
    • month-over-month change: 0.00%
  • all-time high was January, 2019: 1,403,808 bopd
    • delta (January/April): - 12,620 bopd
    • delta (January/April): - 0.90%
  • note rig count difference between March (66) and April (63)
  • note producing well difference between March (15,365) and April (15,490)
Lynn Helms on the numbers:

Natural gas production in April, 2019: 2,862,893 MCF/day (new all-time high)
  • this is a new all-time high; = 477,069 boepd
  • 477,069 + 1,391,188 = 1,868,257 boepd (which is most likely a new all-time record high)
  • last month: 472,783 + 1,391,188 = 1,864,543
  • March, 2019: 2,837,170 MCF/day (final)
    • average daily increase, month-over-month: 25,723 MCF/day (4,286 boepd)
    • month-over-increase:0.91%
Producing wells:
  • April, 2019: 15,490 (preliminary, new all-time high)
  • March, 2019: 15,353 -- well below the all-time high of 15,409 in January, 2019
  • February, 2019: 15,154
  • January, 2019: 15,409
  • May; 140
  • April: 129
  • March: 133 
  • February: 109
Crude price, ND light sweet/ WTI (per barrel) -- look at $10/bbl drop between today and one month ago!
  • All-time high:  $136.29 / $145.29
  • today: $40.50 / $52.28
  • May: $50.50 / $61.78
  • April: $50.50 / $61.78
  • March: $48.00 / $55.01
  • February: $46.30 / $55.01 
Rig count
  • Toady: 61 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
  • May: 65
  • April: 63
  • March: 66
  • February: 64 
Gas capture (flaring):
  • statewide: 81% captured (80% last month)
  • FBIR Bakken: 71% captured (70% last month)
  • goal; 88%
March, 2019, data here. --

The Road To Venezuela: Mexico Cancels Auctions To Choose Partners For Joint Ventures -- June 14, 2019

Predictable and just like clockwork.

Over at "the big stories," under "Energy and the Western Hemisphere": Mexico: Could Go The Way of Venezuela."

Now from Reuters, predictable and just like clockwork: Mexico cancels October auctions to pick Pemex partners.
Mexico’s oil regulator announced on Thursday the cancellation of October auctions to pick joint-venture partners in seven onshore areas for state oil company Pemex, which is struggling to reverse more than a decade of falling crude output.
The move represents a fresh blow to the flagship energy reforms of Mexico’s previous government that had allowed Pemex to partner with private oil companies for the first time in an effort to boost production. 
Joint ventures aimed at developing oil and gas projects, or “farmouts,” have been seen as a way to help reverse a nearly 15-year slide in output by luring significant outside investment from private partners.
Other oil auctions to offer exploration and production rights were previously canceled by Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who has criticized former President Enrique Pena Nieto’s reforms.
The leftist [Reuters article] has instead focused on downstream investment, including a plan to build an $8-billion refinery.
AMLO also says Mexico will build that refinery with no outside help. 

More at the link.

Note: Saudi Arabia (SABIC) is partnering with American firms to expand energy opportunities in the US. The Pemex story linked above helps me understand why Saudi Arabia is not partnering with Mexico.

Still The Best Climate Warming Site On The Net

Link here.

QEP: 1Q19 Presentation

Slide presentation (link)
  • Crude oil production for the quarter:
    • Permian: 3 million bbls oil
    • Williston Basin: 2 million bbls oil
  • North Dakota:
    • spudded seven-well Vegas pas on South Antelope
    • initial production expected 4Q19
  • Cost controls
    • Will close Salt Lake City office; consolidate Denver Corporate headquarters
    • to sell corporate aircraft
    • will reduce IT systems and support costs by over $10 million
    • reduce staff by 60% from March, 2018 to July, 2019
  • North Dakota assets
    • net acres: 114,100 net acrs
    • proved reserves: 167 million boe
    • % liquids: 85%
    • production split (oil/gas/NGL): 64/19/17%
  • two plays in the Bakken:
    • South Antelope
    • Fort Berthold Indian Reservation
The presentation references "tank-style" development which the company says minimizes / removes the parent / child issue. Link her for ""tank-style" development. Also, here. [Note: references to the company selling its Bakken assets are out-of-date; the plan to divest Bakken assets was taken off the table earlier this year; QEP is still operating in North Dakota.]


Global energy, Latin America: the choices that countries made when they entered the 21st century will determine how they enter the 21st century. These choices are still being made. In Latin America, the four countries of most interest:
Petrobras (from link above):
  • will invest $105 billion over five years to 2023
  • will divest assets worth $35 billion
  • previously:
    • investment program stood at $84 billion
    • divestments were planned at $27 billion
  • the new Brazilian government has "ambitious privatization" plans
  • Petrobras has ruled out a Petrobras privatization but looks to sell non-core assets of the company to reduce its massive net debt of $73 billion (3Q18)
  • Petrobras is the world's most indebted listed oil company
  • Pemex is not "listed"
Proven oil reserves (BP 2019 statistical review). Link here:
  • 12.8 billion bbls (0.8% of world total)
  • daily production: 2.7 million bbls
  • 5-year oil production change: +27.5%
  • [North Dakota at 1.5 million bopd x 10 years =  5,475 million bbls or 5.5 billion bbls]
  • [North Dakota at 1 million bopd average from 2010 to 2019 (10 years) = 3.65 billion bbls]


Flag Day -- Friday, June 14, 0219

Earlier:  Sophia told me it was "Father's Day" today --- I guess she meant they would be celebrating Father's Day at her school today, and our apartment complex manager will celebrate fathers today because they are closed on Sundays. So, I fixed the subject line -- a reader caught my error -- thank you.  

Director's Cut: North Dakota hits new all-time production record (boepd).

All red: "all" major oil indices are down following the bit of unpleasantness in the Mideast yesterday --
  • WTi: down 26 cents; trading at $52.20
  • OPEC Basket: down $1.55,\; trading at $61.01
  • Brent crude: down 19 cents; trading at $61.12
US production sets record: for the week ending May 24, 2019, American production rose almost 100,000 bpd to a record high of 12. 3 million bopd. Source.

GasBuddy (link here):
  • Ft Worth, TX: $2.16 / gallon
  • Oklahoma City, OK: $2.00 / gallon
  • New Orleans, LA: $2.05
  • Los Angeles, CA: $3.57 
American oil boom is just getting started:


BP Stats Review 2019: global energy demand grew by 2.9%, the fastest since any time since 2010 - 2011. Other data points:
  • natural gas consumption and production was over over 5%, one of the strongest rates of growth for both demand and output for over 30 years
  • renewables, despite fast and furious growth, still accounted for only a third of the increase in total power generation (I assume no growth in nuclear energh, hydro, or coal, so this means, two-thirds of energy growth was due to fossil fuel, mostly natural gas)
  • coal consumption up 1.4%; coal production up 4.3% -- increased for the second year in a row -- someone stockpiling coal?  This second year in a row of increase followed three years of decline (2-14 - 2016). 
  • the US recorded the largest-ever annual production increases by any country for both oil and natural gas, the vast majority of increases coming from onshore shale plays
  • BP is drinking the CO2-global warming kool-aid
Global oil reserves: US not leads the world in oil reserves. From Rystad via Rigzone. At wiki, the US is still listed as #14. The list at wiki as of June 13, 2019 (data from 2012):
  • US: 293 billion bbls of recoverable oil resources
  • Saudi Arabia: 273 billion bbls
  • Russia: 193 billion bbls
  • Rystad's US estimate is 5x more than the reported proven reserves published in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019 
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Friday, June 14, 2019: 45 for the month; 234 for the quarter;
  • 34936, SI/NC, XTO, Darlean 41X-2C, Alkali Creek, no production data,
  • 34865, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Eide-151-95-3328-H-11, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 34691, 940, CLR, Springfield 5-8H1, Brooklyn. t4/19; cum 22K after 24 days;
  • 34603, SI/NC, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 11-31-20TF2H, Elm Tree, no production data,
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6162552875

RBN Energy: northeast gas takeaway capacity vs production in 2019, part 2.
Natural gas pipeline takeaway capacity additions out of the Northeast over the past year or two, along with suppressed gas production growth in recent months, have relieved years-long and severe constraints for moving Marcellus/Utica gas out of the region and even left some takeaway pipelines less than full. That, in turn, has supported Appalachian supply prices. Basis at the Dominion South hub in the first five months of 2019 averaged just $0.26/MMBtu below Henry Hub, compared with $0.46 below in the same period last year and nearly $1.00 below back in 2015, when constraints were the norm. Today, we continue our series providing an update on pipeline utilization out of the region, and how much spare capacity is left before constraints reemerge.