Wednesday, November 9, 2016

From Twitter -- November 9, 2016

Trump win -- 5 energy impacts:
  • reinstate sanctions on Iran and its crude 
  • end CPP 
  • KXL and Dakota approved 
  • RFS reform 
  • US abandons climate pact
Amazing how much information one can squeeze in 140 characters.

RFS: renewable fuel standards. I had forgotten about this one; this is huge. 

With regard to CPP -- before anyone gets too excited, Hillary Clinton also went on record as opposed to CPP. 

We'll see.

Oh, by the way, add a 6th impact from a Trump presidency: it ends all that silly talk about an outright ban on fracking.

Trump's impact on US energy: it's now or never. As Michelle told Barack: don't blow it. 

It's Now Or Never, Chris Isaak

Daddy Long Legs -- The Cheryl - Richard Pads In Banks Oil Field -- November 9, 2016


July 10, 2019: noted lots of activity in this area in early 2019; many wells in this area now off line. See this post. These wells added to the list of wells in this area:

  • 30943, IA/2,517, Equinor, Richard 8-5 6TFH, t9/16; cum 282K 2/21; came off line 4/19; remains off line 5/19; production jumped 3/19; remains off line 4/19; back on line 8/19; off line 1/10; remains off line 3/20; back on line for 8 days, 4/20; extrapolates to 12K over 30 days, 4/20; off line 3/21;
  • 30942, 2,206, Equinor, Richard 8-5 4TFH, t9/16; cum 358K 4/20; remains off line 7/19; back on line 8/19; off line again, 2/20; back on line 4/20; off line 4/20; remains off line 7/20;
  • 30944, 4,040, Equinor, Richard 8-5 XE 1H, Banks, t8/16; cum 501K 7/20; remains on line; was off line 6/18 to 12/18; huge jump in production, 1/20; intermittent production, 4/20;
  • 22807, 3,793, Equinor, Richard 8-5H, Banks, t4/13; cum 458K 3/21; remains on line; was off line intermittently for short periods of time in 2018; steady production as of 11/18;
  • 17755, 543, Equinor, Roscoe 2H-8, Banks, t5/09; cum 376K 3/21; off line as of 3/19; remains off line 5/19; remains off line 7/19; back on line 9/19; off line 11/19; remains off line 3/20; back on line for 6 days; 4/20; remains off line 7/20;
November 22, 2018: production update of the Cheryl and Richard wells

September 23, 2018: the Richard well back online?

May 19, 2018: the original post just had the one Cheryl - Richard pad graphic. There are two other smaller Cheryl - Richard pads to the east (not shown in the diagram below).

May 19, 2018: the Cheryl wells have been updated. There are twelve Cheryl wells in this immediate area; one of them was dry (failed casing). These are very nice wells, and recently there has been some action (or inaction) on the Cheryl pads. Several of the wells have come off-line recently, and some were recently off-line but are now back on line. All of them have shown great production, including some that have a significant jump in production. I have posted the recent production profiles of these wells at this post, as well as a thought about what might be going on.

May 19, 2018: additional Cheryl wells not in the original post -- on two smaller pads to the east of the wells listed in the original post --
  • 22806, 3,464, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 3TFH, t2/13; cum 329K 7/20; off-line, 2/18 but back on-line 3/18; API -- 33-053-04095; FracFocus, not re-fracked;
  • 22808, 4,439, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 4H, t2/13; cum 506K 7/20; off-line 2/18 but back on-line 3/18; off line again, but then back on line 11/18; see this note;
  • 29610, 3,651, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 5H, t12/16; cum 363K 7/20; came off-line, 2/18; API -- 33-053-04097, FracFocus, not re-fracked; back on line as of 6/18; see this post;
  • 31139, 1,979, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 6TFH, t9/16; cum 360K 7/20; came off-line 2/18; back on line as of 11/18; huge wells; remains off line 7/19;
  • 31140, 4,209, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 XE 1H, t8/16; cum 447K 7/20; came off-line 2/18; back on line as of 12/18;
December 23, 2016: The last of the three Cheryl-Richard wells (DUCs) have now been fracked. In the original post there were three DUCs (#32289, #29610, #29611). #32289 was tested 10/16; most of the producing/older Cheryl-Richard wells were taken off line in 10/16. The last two DUCs (#29610, #29611) have been fracked. Expect to see the results of those wells soon. 
Original Post
These things just sort of sneak up on me:

The wells:
  • 32289, A/IA/2,491, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 1H-R, Banks, t11/16; cum 236K 7/20; off-line 3/18; still off-line 9/18; back on line 11/19;
  • 29610, 3,651, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 5H, Banks, t12/16; cum 363K 7/20; off-line 2/18;back on-line 5/18; huge jump in production; off line as of 12/18; back on line 5/19;
  • 29611, 2,486, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 8TFH, Banks, t10/16; cum 309K 6/20; off-line 2/18; back on-line as of 4/18; huge jump in production; off line as of 1918; but now coming back on line as of 12/18; off line 7/20;
  • 29612, 2,719, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 7H, Banks, t8/16; cum 467K 7/20; great well, fracked 8/16 but then a big jump again 11/17; huge production; no significant decline; offline as of 10/18; back on line 5/19;
  • 29684, 2,052 Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 XW 1TFH, Banks, t7/16; cum 286K 7/20; off-line 3/18 for just a short period of time; off line as of 10/18;
  • 22322, 4,630, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 2TFH, Banks, t4/13; cum 386K 7/20; API -- 33-053-03955; huge jump in production; off-line as of 12/18;
  • 21814, dry, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 1H, Banks, casing collapse; Statoil requested a TA on this well to allow for a replacement well to be drilled;
  • 21815, 4,680, Equinor/Statoil, Richard 8-5 1H, Banks, t4/13; cum 445K 7/20; went off-line 2/18;back on-line as of 5/18;
  • 29680, 4,135, Equinor/Statoil, Richard 8-5 5H, Banks, t10/16; cum 286K 7/20; went off-line 3/18 just for a short period; huge jump in production;
  • 29681, 2,078, Equinor/Statoil, Richard 8-5 8TFH, Banks, t7/16; cum 212K 4/20; off-line since 11/17; back on line as of 4/18; huge jump; remains off line 7/19; back on line 8/19; off ine 4/20; remains off line 7/20;
  • 29682, 2,166, Equinor/Statoil, Richard 8-5 3TFH, Banks, t7/16; cum 269K 7/20; off-line since 2/18; back on-line as of 4/18; huge jump; remains off line 7/19; back on line 8/19;
  • 29683, 3,895, Equinor/Statoil, Richard 8-5 7H, Banks, t7/13; cum 348K 7/20; huge jump in early 2018; remains off line 7/19; back on line 8/19;
  • 29685, 2,068, Equinor/Statoil, Richard 8-5 XW 1TFH, Banks, t7/16; cum 259K 7/20; off-line since 2/18; back on-line as of 4/18; remains off line 7/19; back on line 8/19;

Putting Together The Trump Cabinet -- November 9, 2016

The Obama Cabinet

Before we forget, let's look at President Obama's cabinet (December 10, 2016). If you can identify the names or even the backgrounds of any six of these incumbents you are doing better than I was able to do:

  • State: Kerry
  • Treasury: Lew
  • Defense: Ashton Carter
  • Justice: Loretta E Lynch
  • Interior: Sally Jewell
  • Agriculture: Thomas J Vilsack
  • Commerce: Penny Pritzker
  • Labor: Thomas E Perez
  • HHS: Sylvia Mathews Burwell
  • HUD: Julian Castro
  • Transportation: Anthony Fox
  • Energy: Ernest Moniz
  • Education: John King
  • VA: Robert McDonald
  • Homeland Security: Jeh Johnson
  • Chief of staff: Denis McDonough
  • EPA: Gina McCarthy
  • OMB: Shaun L S Donovan
  • US Trade Rep: Michael Froman
  • US Ambassador to UN: Samantha Power
  • Council of Economic Advisers: Jason Furman
  • SBA: Maria Contreras-Sweet
  • Director of National Intelligence:

April 27, 2017: just days before President Trump's 100th day in office, the US Senate confirms his last cabinet nominee, the Labor Secretary. 

April 23, 2017: US Surgeon General (appointed by President Obama), fired (he was asked to resign). He was on the opposite side of the gun issue from the NRA. The #2 over at the US Surgeon's office was elevated to US Surgeon General. 

March 2, 2017: Rick Perry confirmed. 

March 1, 2017: Interior Secretary finally confirmed; Ryan Zinke. 

February 28, 2017: Wilbur Ross confirmed overnight as Commerce secretary.

February 20, 2017 Just named General H.R. McMaster National Security Advisor -- @realDonaldTrump.

February 16, 2017: Vice Admiral Robert Harward has rejected President Trump’s offer to be the new national security adviser.

February 15, 2017: Andy Pudzer, CEO of holding company, Carl's Jr and Arby's withdraws his name

February 15, 2017: National Security Advisor: retired U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Robert S. Harward, to replace Michael Flynn

Feburary 14, 2017: SBA: Linda McMahon, wrestling magnate, WWE, December 7, 2016; sworn in February 14, 2017.

February 14, 2017: Flynn is fired; Trump is upset with leaks; lots of talk that Reince Priebus is in over his head; Trump is having lunch with Chris Christie today. Is Trump looking for a new chief of staff?

February 13, 2017: national security advisor Michael Flynn abruptly resigned; retired Army General Keith Kellogg, a top  policy adviser for Trump's presidential campaign, was appointed acting natioanl security adviser. The political hack Sally Yates, when she was the acting attorney general, delivered the message that Flynn was considered vulnerable to White House counsel Donald McGahn. Yates, apparently, was privy to FBI monitoring showing that Flynn discussed sanctions on Russia with Kislyak -- even though Flynn told administration officials that he had not. Pence repeated the misinformation in national television appearances.  [The National Security Advisor is appointed by the President without confirmation by the Senate.]

February 8, 2017: James Sessions finally confirmed as US Attorney General.

February 7, 2017: at this in their respective presidencies the number of confirmations, according to Fox Business News:
  • Trump: 5
  • Obama: 12
  • Bush: 16
February 7, 2017: Betsy DeVos confirmed, 51-50; VP Pence casts deciding vote;

February 1, 2017: Rex Tillerson confirmed as SecState. 

January 29, 2017: late this past week, the Mexican fiasco and now the airport demonstrations; now Lindsay Graham and John McCain joint issue statement with concerns; Trump tweets back that Graham and McCain are weak on immigration. Rex Tillerson has not been confirmed by the Senate. Earlier this week it was clear that Rex Tillerson would be confirmed; my hunch is that his confirmation is now no better than a 50:50 bet.

January 24, 2017: Haley confirmed. 

January 23, 2017: I was sure Rex Tillerson would go down to defeat, or at best, 51 - 50 with VP Pence casting the deciding vote. But now I hear Marco Rubio has decided to vote to confirm Tillerson; Lindsey Graham and John McCain had indicated earlier they, too, would vote to confirm. Pompeo confirmed.

January 20, 2017: Mike Pompeo: only one of three that was not confirmed on inauguration day (the two that were: SecDefense Mattis and Homeland Security Kelly). Democrats found away to delay confirmation vote on Pompeo until January 23, 2017, at the earliest. it should be noted that all eight of Obama's major cabinet choices were confirmed by inaugural day

January 18, 2017: likely to be former Georgia governor Perdue, now age 70, the first Republican to win governorship of Georgia in 130 years. 

January 12, 2017: it looks like two of Trump's key appointments could be voted down by the Senate: Tillerson and Sessions. If Tillerson is voted down, I would hope that Trump would simply leave the position open. The bureaucracy will run itself; the department has any number of under-secretaries that can run the basic bureaucracy (passports, visas, etc), but in the big scheme of things, what did John Kerry or Hillary Clinton really do in their positions as Secretaries of State. After about six months, the Senate will start to "panic" saying the US needs a SecState: Trump should simply reply he has made his nomination. Time to move on. With Sessions, it's a bit more complicated. But if Trump loses these nominations, he will be seen as an incredibly weakened president and the Senate will see that it can easily stand up to Trump. If he loses on Tillerson and Sessions, he will lose on at least two more nominees and for sure his first Supreme Court nomination will not be approved.

January 11, 2017; if Tillerson not approved, Marco Rubio will take the blame. If Marco Rubio votes against Tillerson, so will McCain. 

January 11, 2017: David Shulkin for VA Current undersecretary for health at VA; in that post since July, 2015.

January 5, 2017: very little being written on Veterans Affairs, but Washington Examiner suggests Lockheed Martin senior vice president Leo Mackay could be choice. 

January 5, 2017: front-runner for Director, National Intelligence - former senator Dan Coats (R-Ind); a traditional Republican; two stints in US Senate; ambassador to Germany under Bush II. 

January 2, 2017: new front-runner for Secretary of Agriculture -- former Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue declined to confirm or deny reports Monday that he's now the leading candidate to serve as Donald Trump's agriculture secretary.

December 22, 2016: Department of Agriculture. Only two more cabinet members need to be appointed: Veterans Affairs and Agriculture. Unless she messes up her interview, Elsa Murano is likely to be his top choice for Agriculture. [December 28, 2016, LA Times is reporting that Trump is now adding former California lieutenant governor to the list; he will meet with Murano and Abel Maldonado same day, December 28, 2016]. Trump cannot afford to be first president since Reagan -- 28 years -- to have no Latino in his cabinet. In addition, she was born in Cuba. She preceded Bob Gates at A&M. Bob Gates is emerging as Trump's #1 advisor. So, with Elsa, Trump does better than a two-fer; the nominee would be a three-fer: female; Latino (or more accurately, Latina); and, Cuban immigrant. How would that play in Florida looking toward 2020? As of December 28, 2016, four on the list.

December 13, 2016: Montana's freshman representative offered Secretary of Interior. Ryan Zinke. Job originally offered to Cathy McMorris Rodgers, but Trump or his advisors not impressed; wanted the search widened.

December 13, 2016: Tillerson to be nominee for SecState; Texan Rick Perry to Secretary of Energy who famously wanted to eliminate the Energy Department -- although he had forgotten.

December 10, 2016, 2:20 p.m. Central Time: sources tell media that Rex Tillerson, former CEO of Exxon Mobil will be nominated for Secretary of State.

December 9, 2016: Department of Interior, leading -- highest ranking Republican woman in the House of Representatives; strident advocate for increased oil and gas drilling on federal lands, Rep Cathy McMorris Rodgers.

December 9, 2016: the end of the line for Rudy Giuliani. 

December 9, 2016: Gary Cohn, senior GS banker; coordinate economic policy across his administration as White House National Economic Council; would join two other former Goldman execs in the Trump administration: Treasury Secretary -designate Steven Mnuchin and White House adviser Steve Bannon.

December 9, 2016: for those not paying attention, Rudy Giuliani was out of the running for SecState some weeks ago. To prepare Rudy, if he didn't already know, and to prepare his supporter, if they don't already know, it is being "leaked" (perhaps by Russian hackers) that Rudy Giuliani is out of the running for SecState -- breaking news on MSNBC's "Morning Joe." Chris Christi was kicked off the island even before Rudy Giuliani. The cabinet process really does seem to be a "reality show."

December 8, 2016: fast-food executive Andy Puzder for Secretary of Labor. Puzder, chief executive of CKE Restaurants Inc, which operates the Carl's Jr. and Hardee's fast-food chains, has been a vociferous critic of government regulation of the workplace. I've posted comments from Puzder on several occasions. 

December 5, 2016: official -- Ben Carson to HUD. Speaks volumes what the administration thinks of HUD. Even Obama did not think much of/about HUD. Does anyone remember his SecHUD. I do. Another lightweight.

December 2, 2016: two new names -- being considered for SecState? Rex Tillerson, CEO/Exxon Mobil and Lee Raymond, ex-CEO/XOM; VA? Scott Brown of Massachussetts -- even Elizabeth Warren supports him (of course, she does; she doesn't want to run against him again)

December 1, 2016: General James Mattis -- SecDef. 

November 29, 2016: we haven't heard much about SecDefense lately. One wonders if James Mattis has fallen out of favor after Trump's recent discussions with Petraeus and Romney. Perhaps there is a grand compromise being worked out. It's pretty much agreed that Trump would like both Petraeus and Romney in his cabinet. Despite Trump's strong endorsement of Mattis he doesn't fit the "Trump" picture. Just 24 hours ago, headline stories appeared the SecDefense should not be a retired general. In modern presidential history, appointing a retired general as SecDefense is not the norm. Putting all this together, might we see Petraeus for SecState and Romney for SecDefense? There is a bit of precedence for this. Quick: who was Bush II's SecState? Yup, a retired general officer. Who was Bush II's SecDefense? A civilian with great organizational skills. Rumsfeld did have three years Navy experience, and Romney has had none. It might be a bridge too far, but if Trump wants both men in his cabinet and he's leaning toward Petraeus this could be the grand compromise. It would also help explain the long delay in making an announcement: Mitt Romney may have to be brought up to speed on military matters before the announcement is made.  (posted this date, at 9:29 a.m. Central Time.)

November 29, 2016: sources, expected to name -- Steve Mnuchin, former GS executive.

November 29, 2016: sources -- Department of Transportation -- former Labor Secretary Elaine Chao.

November 29, 2016: sources -- Trump likely to select Representative Tom Price, Georgia, for HHS. A physician; previous chairman of the Republican Study Committee and the Republican Policy Committee; currently chairman of the House Budget Committee. 

November 25, 2016: Trump adds to national security team -- KT McFarland, deputy national security adviser. Campaign lawyer Donald McGahn will be White House lawyer. McFarland has an incredible resume (not surprising).

November 24, 2016: Wilbur Ross, Secretary of Commerce. Not officially announced, but apparently "confirmed." 

November 23, 2016: Betsy DeVos for Secretary of Education. 2nd woman chosen for his cabinet. Charter school advocate. Former Michigan Republican Party chairwoman.

November 23, 2016: Ben Carson for HUD. Very, very good move by Trump; Ben Carson very deserving. I personally don't care for Carson's views but as HUD, it's the best of both worlds. Trump rewards one of his real supporters but doesn't place him where he would be in front of the media every day. Quick: who is the current Secretary of HUD? Yeah, that's what I thought.

November 23, 2016: cabinet level position, US ambassador to the UN -- South Carolina governor, Nikki Haley

November 18, 2016: Third position filled (non-cabinet): National Security Advisor -- Lt Gen (Ret) Mike Flynn.

November 13, 2016: First two positions filled; great choices --
  • Chief of staff -- Reince Priebus, RNC chairman -- NY Times story;
  • Chief strategist, senior counselor -- Steve Bannon -- NY Times story; same link; Bannon is "Breitbart" -- there was talk during the campaign that Trump was thinking of starting his own television network. Excluding the "CNN" brand, there are four major networks; three of them are clearly elite northeast/Hillary/Bill; the fourth has had a good relationship with the GOP but those ties were strained with the Trump campaign. "Breitbart" is Breitbart News. When one looks at Bannon's resume and Trump's backing -- now the backing of the president-elect -- it's hard not to imagine an "alt-right news network."
November 13, 2016: The New York Times has a short list for the cabinet nominees. Note the distinction between the Interior Secretary and the Secretary of Energy:
  • despite its name, the primary purview of the Energy Department is to protect and manage the nation's arsenal of nuclear weapons. Despite being on the short list, Harold Hamm would not be the right choice for this position
  • Interior Secretary manages the nation's public lands and water. The next secretary will decide the fate of Obama-era rules that stop public land development; curb the exploration of oil, coal, and gas; and, promote wind and solar power on public lands. Although Harold Hamm is on the short list and seems an obvious choice, it appears Jan Brewer might be more appropriate. The Interior Secretary is more than just oil and gas 
  • the short list for Interior Secretary is not particularly exciting (it includes the President of Lucas Oil Products (manufactures automotive lubricants) and Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor and running mate of John McCain 
Original Post
For those folks watching closely early Wednesday morning, it appeared that President-elect Trump was introducing his cabinet nominees. These are some of my ideas.

I would re-organize the Department of Defense under two departments, one in the traditional role as we have come to know it. But, we need to be pro-active when it comes to dealing with global terrorists -- we need to go on the offense. Strike first, strike fast.

Likewise, I would break up Department of Energy into three departments: on-shore, off-shore, and renewables; or, Department of Interior into on-shore and off-shore.

Other than a few "spaceholders" below, the list below seems pretty solid.  Spaceholders are in italics.

Cabinet-Rank Positions

Cabinet Rank:
  • CIA: Mike Pompeo: only one of three that was not confirmed on inauguration day (the two that were: SecDefense Mattis and Homeland Security Kelly). Democrats found away to delay confirmation vote on Pompeo until January 23, 2017, at the earliest. it should be noted that all eight of Obama's major cabinet choices were confirmed by inaugural day. [Later, confirmed Monday, January 23, 2017.]
  • EPA: Oklahoma attorney general; said to share Trump's feeling on environment -- Scott Pruitt, December 7, 2016
  • Chief of staffReince Priebus, was RNC chairman
  • OMB: Rep Mick Mulvaney, fiscal hawk; South Carolina, US Rep
  • US Trade Representative:
  • Homeland Security: retired US Marine General -- John Kelly; immigration hawk; December 7, 2016; really, really well thought of;
  • US ambassador to China: Iowa Republican governor, Terry Branstad, December 7, 2016
  • SBA: Linda McMahon, wrestling magnate, WWE, December 7, 2016; sworn in February 14, 2017
  • NEC (National Economic Council): GS's Gary Cohn, once the heir apparent to CEO Lloyd Blankfein.
  • National Security Advisor: Michael Flynn; resigned mid-February, 2017; retired U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Robert S. Harward
  • Senior White House advisor: son-in-law Jared Kushner; Justice Dept says it does not violate any nepotism laws
  • Under-Secretary for Nuclear Surety: Jay Martin Cohen, retired rear admiral, US Navy 
  • RNC Chair: Ronna Romney McDaniel, niece of Mitt Romney; Michigan GOP chairwoman; one of the three states that put Trump over the top
  • Federal Reserve: two open positions for PEOTUS to fill
  • National Security Council, Strategic Communications, Senior Director: Monica Crowley , former Fox analyst; (Lt Gen Mike Flynn; Lt Gen Keith Kellogg -- National Security team)
  • Secretary of the US Army: Vincent Viola, Army veteran, billionaire owner of the Florida Panthers; 
Proposed Trump Cabinet
"Most Likely" -- a dynamic list

Department of State
Actual - Rex Tillerson, former CEO of Exxon Mobil will be nominated for Secretary of State.] Based on Senate confirmation hearings  if Tillerson not approved, Marco Rubio will take the blame. If Marco Rubio votes against Tillerson, so will McCain.
Confirmed: February 1, 2017, after many delays

Department of Treasury
Actual: Steve Mnuchin, former Goldman Sachs investor; Trump campaign finance manager
 Confirmed: February 3, 2017, after many delays

Department of Defense
Actual: General (ret) James Mattis 
Confirmed: January 20, 2017, Inauguration Day

Department of Justice
Actual -- Jim Sessions, Alabama, US Senator
Confirmed: February 8, 2017, after many delays, including an all-night speech-a-thon by the progs; 52 - 47;

Department of the Interior
Actual: Representative Ryan Zinke, MT freshman representative
Confirmed: confirmed early morning, March 1, 2017, after many delays; still four more nominees to be confirmed

Department of Commerce
Actual: Wilbur Ross, billionaire, king of bankruptcy turnaround
Confirmed: confirmed overnight, February 27, 2017, after many delays; 

Department of Labor
Actual: Andy Pudzer, CEO of holding company, Carl's Jr and Arby's withdraws his name, Feb 15, 2017; new nominee -- Alex Acosta
Confirmed: confirmed just days before President Trump's 100th day in office. This was the last of the cabinet nominations.
  Department of Health and Human Services
Actual: Tom Price; physician; US Congress
Confirmed: February 10, early morning, 2017, after many delays, including late-night speech-a-thon by the progs; 52 - 47; it looks like the GOP has quit making speeches; just letting the Progs talk themselves out;

Department of Housing and Urban Development
Actual: Ben Carson; neurosurgeon who grew up in government-housing

Department of Transportation
Actual: Elaine Chao, former deputy secretary transportation, under Bush II; wife of Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell
Confirmed: early

Department of Energy
Actual: Rick Perry, former governor of Texas
Confirmed: March 2, 2017, after many delays

Department of Education
Actual: Betsy DeVos; huge supporter of charter schools, home schooling
Confirmed: closest vote every; 50-50; VP Pence cast winning vote, February 7, 2017, after many delays; including an all-night speech-a-thon by the progs

Department of Agriculture
Actual: Sonny Perdue; former Georgia governor, age 70; first GOP'er to win governorship of Georgia in 130 years

Department of Veterans Affairs
Actual: David Shulkin, currently #2 at the department

Department of Homeland Security
Actual: General John F. Kelly
Confirmed: January 20, 2017, Inauguration Day 

White House Chief of Staff
Actual: Reince Priebus, RNC chairman

Environmental Protection Agency
Actual: Scott Pruitt, attorney general, OK; has man lawsuits against the EPA past and pending
Confirmed: February 20, after many, many delays

US Ambassador to the UN
Actual: Nikki Haley, governor of South Carolina
Confirmed: January 24, 2017

White House Press Secretary
Actual: Sean Spicer, RNC
US Army Corps of Engineers

This may be of interest in 2017:

US Customs and Border Protection
Mark: You're Fired
Fox News, January 31, 2017:
U.S. Customs and Border Protection said on Twitter than Ronald Vitiello has been appointed to lead the agency at a time when President Donald Trump has pledged to erect a wall on the U.S. border with Mexico and add 5,000 agents from the current level of about 20,000.
The National Border Patrol Council — an early and outspoken backer of Trump's presidential bid — openly supported Vitiello for the job and pushed for the ouster of his predecessor, Mark Morgan, who resigned Thursday at the request of the new administration.
Morgan stepped down only seven months after being named the first outsider to run the agency since it was created in 1924.
Vitiello, who was most recently CBP's executive assistant commissioner for operations support, was acting Border Patrol chief when Morgan was appointed last year and had been considered a leading contender for the job then. He joined the Border Patrol more than 30 years ago and served as deputy chief in the administration of President Barack Obama

Statoil Reports A High-IP DUC In The Bakken -- November 9, 2016

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3865193182192

No wells coming off the confidential list Thursday.

Six new permits:
  • Operators: BR (4), Petro Harvester (2)
  • Fields: Cross (McKenzie), Woburn (Burke), Stony Run (Burke)
  • Comments:
One producing well completed:
  • 29680, 4,135, Statoil, Richard 8-5 5H, Banks, t10/16; cum --; API 33-053-06370; this pad is permitted for 30 tanks; according to FracFocus, this well was fracked 5/29/16 - 6/21/16 with 9.5 million gallons of water; 87% water by mass; and 13% sand by mass;
One permit renewed:
  • WPX: an Elm permit in Dunn County 
The Apple Page

Apple launched a new 12-inch MacBook last April, 2015. That was about 20 months ago.

In its first five days after launch, the new MacBook Pro took in 78% of all the revenue generated by that 12-inch MacBook launched early last year. I cannot get my arms around that one. In five days?

From Macrumors:
Apple's latest MacBook Pro has already outsold all competing laptops this year.

The new MacBook Pro accumulated more revenue from online orders during its first five days of availability than the Microsoft Surface Book, ASUS Chromebook Flip, Dell Inspiron 2-in-1, and Lenovo Yoga 900, based on e-receipt data from 12,979 online shoppers in the United States.
The new MacBook Pro generated over seven times the revenue that the 12-inch MacBook did over its first five days of availability.
If accurate, that means it took the new MacBook Pro just five days to accumulate 78% of all the revenue generated by the 12-inch MacBook since its April 2015 launch.
Staggering. In five (5) days the new MacBook Pro accumulated 78% of all the revenue generated by the 12-inch MacBook since its April 2015 launch. Simply staggering. 

The Auto Page

GM will lay off 2,000 autoworkers in Michigan, Ohio, at The Washington Post.  
Shifting demand from cars to trucks and SUVs is forcing General Motors to lay off more than 2,000 workers indefinitely at two assembly plants in Ohio and Michigan starting in January.
GM said it will suspend the third shifts at factories in Lordstown, Ohio, and Lansing, Michigan, because of the market change, which is growing and shows no sign of abating.
About 1,250 workers will be furloughed at the Lordstown plant, which makes the Chevrolet Cruze compact car, starting January 23, 2016. Another 840 will be idled at the Lansing Grand River factory, which makes the Chevrolet Camaro and Cadillac ATS and CTS luxury cars, when their shifts end January 16, 2016. 
Bad, bad news coming on the heels of a Trump victory. But worse: the word "indefinitely" in that first paragraph. 

Somebody's Cryin', Chris Isaak

It Was All About The Uncertainty: It Had Nothing To Do With President-Elect Trump Per Se -- November 9, 2016


Later, 2:13 p.m. Central Time: the craziness continues. Over at Yahoo!Finance, this headline: "US stocks claw back losses after Trump shock." Unless you were trading in the futures market at 3 o'clock in the morning, you suffered no losses. The market opened up, and is now almost 300 points int he green. Anyone suffering losses today after yesterday is a poster child for bad market timing.

Later, 2:06 p.m. Central Time: the market is now up almost 300 points. This has nothing to do with Trump policies. The reason the market is up almost 300 points because:
  • the fear factor is gone; no threat of a constitutional crisis; the transition looks like it will go well;
  • the market had been down the last couple of week (folks may remember the headline, "longest losing streak since ..."; and, 
  • once the market goes past 100 points in either direction, the 'bots take over, following algorithms.
The 'bots are being "told" that there is a "rush" to buy (for whatever reason; to the 'bots it does not matter; no reason is needed); don't get left behind; and there is nothing on the horizon to suggest that prices could fall before the market closes today.

Original Post
Pet peeve: The New York Times provided a great summary of post-election speeches and tweets by and to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump but they still let their biases show. From that otherwise great summary:
The election returns on Tuesday sent stock futures into a dive and drew expressions of consternation from abroad.  
Accurate but not complete.  An act of omission. 

Yes, the article was written before the market opened and before congratulatory tweets had poured in from around the world, but this is the age of electronic immediacy. It would take almost no effort to update the article. Drudge is well-known to refresh rarely, but he can re-fresh immediately and spot-on when it's that important. There's a reason Drudge is successful and The New York Times reported a 98% drop in profits in 3Q16 earnings results.

That "dive in stock market futures"? That's all some people will read; they won't check the market for themselves.

The opening was green. There was a short period of red (about 20 minutes in red) and then back up about 40 points for most of the morning.

Now, in mid-day trading, this is quite amazing:

If the print is too small to read, the Dow 30 is up almost 200 points.

If this holds, it will be interesting to see what MSNBC and CNBC have to say about this tomorrow in their analysis. It will be interesting to see what Jim Cramer has to say about this later today.

The volatility confirms what every trader knows about the market. The market is all about greed and fear. And the worst fear is uncertainty.

When the results started coming in overnight, it was unclear how this was going to play out. It certainly did not look like it was going to play out as scripted.  Uncertainty was at its height.

James Carville noted the 700-point plunge and (infamously) said it would continue (implying, it seemed, that it would get worse).

There was talk of a constitutional crisis going into this election. Don Trump was on record saying he might not accept the results of the election. We all know the ferocity with which the Clinton dynasty can bring down on state secretaries of state if the vote is too close to call. Lawyers for both sides were pre-positioned in battleground states. The "market" in short, at midnight, was looking into Dormammu's throat of uncertainty. No wonder the market was in freefall.

Now that the results are accepted by all; now that President Obama has invited President-elect Trump into the White House tomorrow; now that Hillary and other national leaders have given statesmenly and stateswomenly speeches congratulating the President-elect; now that foreign leaders -- including Mexico's president and the Philippines president -- have called in their congratulatory phone calls, telegrams, and tweets; the "market" is comfortable again.

The "market" can get back to fear and greed. Wherever the market settles today it won't be because of Donald Trump's campaign speeches.

By the way, speaking of foreign leaders, for the record, Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was the first foreign leader to reach Trump to congratulate him. El-Sisi needs all the help he can get.

This really is a cool photograph isn't it? It beats a photograph of Bill, Hillary, and Chelsea, doesn't it?

Wall Street Journal Error Brought To Editor's Attention By Reader -- Correction (Sort Of) In Today's Paper -- November 9, 2016

This is pretty cool.

In The Wall Street Journal today, this correction showed up on page A2. The error that the newspaper referenced was noted by a reader and that reader brought it to the attention of The WSJ:
On Thursday, clergy members participated in a prayer circle and protesters faced off against police over the Dakota Access Pipeline on land in North Dakota owned by the Army Corps of Engineers, near the Standing Rock Indian Reservation.
A photo caption with a U.S. News photo on Friday incorrectly said the clergy members and protesters were on the reservation’s land.
And again, same error, and corrected (sort of):
Separately, police used tear gas Sunday on people protesting the pipeline who were occupying Turtle Island, which also is land owned by the Army Corps of Engineers near the reservation. A photo caption with a U.S. News photo on Monday incorrectly said the police and protesters were on the reservation’s land.
The reader wrote The WSJ:
You persist in misrepresenting the Dakota Access pipeline route. It does not cross the Standing Rock Indian Reservation. It is immediately adjacent to the Northern Border pipeline, a pipeline that has existed since the early 1980's. You will see the existing Northern Border pipeline as a diagonal yellow line in the lower center of this map.
The reader noted that the correction is still not quite right, but it's close enough for the mainstream media, I guess. It's my understanding the caption actually said that the pipeline ran through the reservation; in fact, the pipeline does NOT run through the reservation.

I was unable to find an electronic copy of that caption, but when/if I do, I will post it.

Hopefully I have that correct. If not, and if I'm made aware of the error, I will correct the correction to the original correction to the original error. Got it? Good.

By the way, the reader included a link to a pretty interesting letter from the US Army Corps of Engineers to the local sheriff to have trespassers removed from federal land. For protesters, the letter includes a really cool map that can be downloaded, framed, and placed on your wall to share with your grandchildren for years to come.

Off The Net For Awhile -- Biking -- November 9, 2016

Jeff Bezos Does It Again -- November 9, 2016

Link here.

This is not traditional house-keeping. They're not going to be vacuuming or washing or scrubbing or doing anything that really is associated with traditional house-cleaning. This is "house-keeping" or "tidying up," as they say.

But I may be wrong: the job description does include "help provide high-quality cleanings and meet any special requests." The key phrase is "help provide." The job description does not say comprehensive house-cleaning.

The Amazon employees will stop by your house on a daily basis and will help you "tidy up" -- LOL! Bring in your groceries and paper products. They will note what you need -- more toilet paper, more tuna, perhaps a new microwave oven, and they will ask the homeowner if they should go ahead and order anything.

Over time, the relationship between the Amazon employee and the customer will develop to the point that the Amazon employee won't even have to ask. He/she will simply order what's needed. Even a new microwave oven every so often.

This is incredibly clever.

Now, how would Jeff Bezos think of doing this?

Some years ago Jeff Bezos bought The Washington Post.

One day Jeff asked his distribution manager, "Hey, Bob, how do we get The Washington Post  to our subscribers? Not the electronic edition but the print edition. How do customers get the paper?"

"Well, Jeff, someone delivers it to their door."

"You mean, one of our employees has a daily route taking him/her to thirty or forty of our customers? Every day?

"Yes, day in and day out, one of our employees -- well, actually a subcontractor -- we generally don't do it ourselves. But yes, in a sense our employees visit our customers every day -- and they do it first thing every morning -- to make sure they get the daily newspaper."

Jeff: "Do you think that person could deliver, let's say toilet paper, at the same time?"

Bob: "I don't see why not."

Jeff: "Bob, could you call Heather in her? I have an idea for a new Amazon Prime service."

Ban On Fracking: That Silly Talk Is Finally Off The Table -- November 9, 2016

Futures (in the market) mean squat. At 8:33 a.m. Central Time, just after the market opened:

And, yes, I know the day is not over. A single swallow does not a spring make.
Politics: I don't know what's "on the table," but I do know this is off the table: any more silly talk of banning fracking

Politics: the media went into this election with eyes wide shut. This is being said over and over by talking heads.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3865193182192

RBN Energy: US Northeast natural gas providers gear up for winter, takeaway expansions.
Northeast production growth, the primary driver of overall gains in U.S. natural gas output in recent years, has largely stalled in 2016. Rig counts in the Marcellus/Utica dropped to near six-year lows, and the region has been facing constraints—from takeaway capacity and in the past month or two from storage injection capacity. But market factors are again about to roil the Northeast: 1) winter heating demand is on its way, and 2) more takeaway capacity has come online in the past month and still more is coming before the year is up. Today, we review recent Northeast natural gas production trends using pipeline flow data from Genscape and assess factors that will impact regional production this winter.
Since 2010, by far the most significant growth in U.S. natural gas production has occurred in the Northeast, where the Marcellus/Utica shale plays in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio have proven to be among the most productive in the world. To put that into perspective, while production from the rest of the U.S. has declined by nearly 7 Bcf/d over the last five years, Northeast production has climbed at an astounding pace, from less than 5 Bcf/d in 2011 to a record 22.8 Bcf/d in February 2016. Since February, volumes have bounced around but overall growth has flattened. With winter now just around the corner and pipeline expansions coming online, it’s time to revisit what’s happened with Northeast production this year and consider the prospects for supply growth in the coming months.

The Political Page

This may be the thing that irritates me most: the mainstream media says this nation has never been so divided.

Let's go to Hillary's fact-checker:  Between Election Day and Lincoln's inauguration, seven slave-holding Southern states declared their secession from the Union and formed the Confederacy. This later precipitated the Civil War that lasted until 1865.

Let's repeat that in case someone missed it: after Abraham Lincoln was elected president, "seven slave-holding Southern states decleared their secession from the Union and formed the Confederacy." And they did that before Abraham Lincoln even took the oath of office.

The election of 1860 is not ancient history. Folks, in 2016, still talk about the need for reparations for events that preceded the Civil War.