Monday, April 26, 2021

Ramblng On A Monday Night -- A Couple Of "A-Ha" Moments -- April 26, 2021

Updates

April 30, 2021: yeah, it's gonna take a lot more natural gas

April 27, 2021: I posted the original note below, last night, and not less than 24 hours later, Charles Kennedy provides an incredibly good example of what I'm taking about.

Link here

I'll fill this in later, but this is the thing. The US Secretary of Energy is warning that US oil and gas companies need to diversify so they don't go the way of "Kodak" or Blockbuster Video. Great, great example. The US oil and gas companies need to diversify into EVs and the infrastructure needed to meet the needs of those EVs. There's not nearly enough wind and solar energy to meet even the slightest increase in electricity demand that will be driven by EV economy. The EV economy is going to need more oil (diesel fuel) and gas than ever.

Original Post

Note: in a long note like this there will be typographical and content errors. Facts and opinions are interspersed and it is difficult to tell the difference in many cases. 

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Original Post

This is one of those "aha" moments. 

It's going to be a rambling note. I'm not sure there is any way I can post it in a linear fashion. 

Bear with me. 

So many things. 

Part 1

First we will start with "white privilege." Does it exist; does it not exist? I don't know, but it seems the debate is between those who rely on critical race theory and those who rely on rationalism to form their arguments and/or worldviews.

For critical race theory, see the wiki entry

My shorthand:

  • CRT: relies on story-telling; use of narrative; the opposite of rationalism; Kipling's "just-so" stories; the Bible.
  • rationalism: western rational thought; the scientific method; critical thinking;

Now, modulate from white privilege to EVs. [I don't think that's the way most folks would use the verb "to modulate" in a sentence, but it's exactly the right word. I learned that from Sophia's first grade music teacher.]

Those who argue that fossil fuel for personal ground transportation must be banned and replaced with EVs, are using a variation of the CRT argument. I suppose we could call it "critical EV theory" (CEVT).

Those who argue the fallacy of replacing all fossil fuel automobiles with EVs use classical rational thought, AKA critical thinking, AKA the scientific method.

 CRT/CEVT seems almost "religious/mystical" unlike rationalism or the scientific method. The bible is a series of narratives, a book of story-telling, but I digress.

Identifying that distinction (CRT/CEVT vs rationalism) doesn't get us anywhere but it was an a-ha moment for me. It explains why some folks are so fanatical about EVs while others are 180 degrees in opposition.

So, we're never going to get past that. 

It is what it is. That explains why I quit following Ice Age Now or Deplorable Climate Science [although they are still linked at the sidebar at the right]. I'm in the same camp as the "rationalists." The other camp is made up of the CRT/CEVT thinkers. To think a debate between these two camps would get us anywhere is insane.

So, that was the first "aha" moment I had over the weekend. For me, to argue the insanity of the EV movement is also insane. 

I'll still post EV stories but my heart is not in it. The outcome does not matter to me at all any more.

Okay. End of Part 1.

 Part 2

So, let's assume, "we" go down the EV road, that like Governor Newsom (D-California) declares, we all agree that by some date in the future, ground transportation using fossil fuel is outlawed. Only electric vehicles will be allowed / will be legal after some future date. [There will be some exceptions, like those cars in Jay Leno's garage.]

The CEVT folks say Governor Newsom's vision is possible. The rational folks say his vision is not possible. The CEVT folks know they are right; the rationalists are wrong. On the other hand, the rationalists know they are right; the CEVT folks are wrong. 

So, I have to, like deus ex machina, lift myself out of rational thinking and try to figure out how "this" works: going to 100% EVs.  This is not binary: rationalists vs CEVT. There's a third way.

Rationally I know 100% EV by some future date cannot possibly work but we are headed down that road, now that the CEVT folks appear to have "won" that argument. 

And this is where the second "aha" moment came over the weekend (or maybe it was this morning) when  a reader sent me this photograph:

That's how it works. Both the CEVT folks and the rationalists are correct. At some future point down the road, we can be 100% electric when it comes to ground transportation. 

Part 3

There is a second point to be made about the photograph above. The first point is obvious. The rationalists all know that the electric grid will never be able to support 100% electric ground transportation. But yet, at some point in the future, America will be 100% electric when it comes to ground transportation. It seems to be a paradox until one sees the obvious solution, as seen in the photograph above. 

The second point made by that photograph is this: wind and solar energy cannot replace fossil fuel. The rationalists know that; the CEVT folks say hogwash. The CEVT folks say wind and solar energy can replace fossil fuel.

At this point, I can take this rambling essay in one of two different directions. I can fall into the trap and argue why wind and solar energy will fail but that's the CEVT vs rationalist argument and will get me nowhere. As noted above it will drive me insane.

What I want to know, is how do I make this argument, regardless of what side I'm on, work for me, as an investor? 

The answer is staring me in the face. How do I make this argument, regardless of what side I'm on, work for me as an investor in fossil fuel? It's obvious.

Part 4

The answer for a fossil fuel investor like me: get on the EV bandwagon now. The faster we move to an all-EV world the sooner it will be obvious that we're going to need a lot of natural gas and a lot of diesel fuel (which means a lot of crude oil, especially the heavy kind, the most dirty kind; we may even need coal). And for an investor like me that's music to my ear: the requirement for lots of natural gas and diesel fuel.

Part 5

Decades ago, "they" say there was a wonderful light rail system in southern California. A successful light rail system would threaten the oil companies (Rockefeller} as well as the great automobile companies (Ford) and the rubber tire companies (Firestone). Did the oil companies and the great automobile companies and the rubber tire companies fight the light rail system in southern California. No. They bought the light rail systems and then buried them. That may be an apocryphal story; I don't know if it's true or not but I've heard it over the years. 

So, it's interesting to see the great automobile companies (Volkswagen, GM, Ford, Toyota) are doing exactly that. They are committing to 100% EVs. They've been through this rodeo before. 

Unlike light rail, they won't bury EVs, but they know the grid can't handle it. They know that because they are engineers and engineers are rationalists. 

They know that diesel generators are really, really, really inexpensive in the big scheme of things.

Part 6

By the way, diesel generators accomplish something else. With diesel generators in every neighborhood providing electricity for EV charging stations there is no need for a more robust grid. Each of those diesel generators is completely off the grid. 

And, then this: once folks get tired of neighborhood diesel generators it's just a hop, skip, and a jump to micro thorium nuclear reactors. Which, of course, will never happen. If CEVT folks are frightened of fracking, there's no way they will accept mini-nuclear reactors in their neighborhoods. 

It's all diesel. It's all natural gas. The CEVT folks just don't know it yet. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

The Two MRO Wells That Came Off The Confidential List Today -- April 26, 2021

The two MRO wells that came off the confidential list over the weekend:

  • 36923, AL/A/4,806, MRO, Thorson USA 41-8H, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 187K 2/21; stimulated 8/16/20; 52 stages; 17.1 million lbs proppant; target, middle Bakken;
  • 37515, F/A/5,556, MRO, Pelarske USA 44-5TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 160K 2/21; target: second bench, Three Forks; 52 stages; 11.3 million lbs proppant;

Production data:

  • 36923:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20212822299222861546541128397461226
BAKKEN1-20213133596337702420050432484181848
BAKKEN12-2020316195061982457477814874423117
BAKKEN11-2020214773747558409116226759299342
BAKKEN10-2020821575212821914721302188861146
  • 37515:
    • Note; 29949 bbls over 10 days extrapolates to 89,847 bbls crude oil.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20212620987209462796229015264992401
BAKKEN1-20213128679287383706540506388321543
BAKKEN12-20203034288345484656345357433120
BAKKEN11-20202146434471636045457867551280
BAKKEN10-20201029949285534113839322324025159

Texas Gains Two US House Seats -- Monday, April 26, 2021

Census results are in. Link here.

Congressional seat changes:

  • gains 2: Texas (+2)
  • gains 1: Oregon, Montana, Colorado, Florida, and NC (+5)
  • loses 1: California; New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois (- 7)
  • yup, the math works.

Corn, from social media:

  • after a staggering year-to-date rally, corn is now knocking at the $7-per-bushel door.
  • record imports by China and concerns about the weather are boosting prices
  • spill-over effect into the oil and refinery market via ethanol
  • note: a reader wrote me saying it cost him upwards of $6 - $8 to plant/fertilize/de-weed/harvest a bushel of corn

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Wow, Doesn't This Look Like Something
Warren Would Dream Up?

All things being equal, this looks superb. I would love this. A one-year holding period to be considered capital gains as it is now, I've always thought somewhat ridiculous.

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Global Warming: Hey, Not So Fast

A top Obama scientist is not rebutting much of the dominant political narrative. WSJ

Must be one of them there Neanderthals. 

Tesla, 1Q21 -- Beats Expectations Across The Board; Active Rig Count Drops To Fourteen -- April 26, 2021

Tesla, 1Q21, beat expectations across the board, despite a chip shortage and still facing Covid-19 pandemic headwinds.

  • record net income: $438 million
  • EPS: 93 cents vs 79 cents forecast; that's a huge beat;
  • revenue: $10.39 billion vs $10.29 forecast, up 74% from a year ago; very, very impressive;
  • revenue from sales of regulatory credits: $518 million (about 5% of total revenue)
    • perhaps that will end the meme -- one that I often posted -- that Tesla made its money off regulatory credits;
    • one analyst said: "looks like Tesla lost $80 million in the quarter excluding the massive $518 million regulatory credit sales"; 
    • another analyst: "Tesla's revenue declined 3.3% quarter-over-quarter; excluding regulatory credits its revenue declined 4.6% Q/Q;
  • deliveries, Model 3 and Model Y: 184,800; a record; beating expectations;
  • guidance:
    • expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year;
  • apparently "no one" can make sense of this earnings report based on comments on social media; one analyst has TSLA ttm P/E 1153x;
  • from the linked article:

The fact the company grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but only grew service centers by 28% and its mobile service fleet by 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.

The WSJ analysis: here.

Definitions: there seems to be some "disagreement" on the definition of "revenue" and "income" in this release.

TSLA: during the day, TSLA had been up n1.2%; up almost $9; trading at $738;
after-hours, profit-taking: TSLA dropped 2%; dropped $15; trading at $723.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Scary Headline

Non-story:

  • headline: Canadian government halts Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in Burnaby, BC:
  • "suspension" will last for four months;
  • ruling comes after complaints about construction activity impacting the birds
  • "temporary suspension" to last until August 20, 2021, when the hummingbirds said they will be done with their own nesting season;

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Alaska

The Newsom announcement. Yesterday it was California, down to less than 400,000 bopd production. Now, today, EIA on Alaska:

  • oil production in Alaska reaches its lowest level in more than 40 years; graphic suggests Alaska's production is down to slightly less than 500,000 bopd.

Link here.

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China Electricity

China's electricity consumption this year (2021) will increase by 7 to 8 percent from 2020 on stronger domestic activity. Source.

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Back to the Bakken

Bakken economy: Basin Electric set to expand grid in area between Tioga, Parshall due to all the growth. Link here

Active rigs:

$61.96
4/26/202104/26/202004/26/201904/26/201804/26/2017
Active Rigs1429646348

No new permits.

Three permits renewed:

  • Lime Rock Resources (2): one Brew permit and one Emerson permit, both in Dunn County.
  • Resource Energy Can-Am: one Ranger permit in Divide County;

The Trend Is Not The CDC's Friend -- April 26, 2021

Would you take the JNJ vaccine if the mRNA variants were available and you had a choice.

A four-day review and everything was copacetic, okey-dokey? 

Link here

Did the "JNJ pause" derail the vaccine rollout?

That drop from 3.127 million to 2.741 million was not trivial. It represents a 12% decrease from 3.127 million, and oh, by the way, the pool of those now "allowed" to get the vaccine has dropped all the way down to everyone over the age of 16. The most recent average should have soared. 



Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered

Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday

Average number of doses given / day in past seven days

Monday

April 26, 2021

290,692,005

0

230,768,454

2,107,046

79.39%

26,186,280

2,741,021

Sunday

April 25, 2021

290,692,005

6,350

228,661,408

3,020,948

78.66%



Saturay

April 24, 2021

290,685,655

4,590,470

225,640,460

3,318,230

77.62%



Friday

April 23, 2021

286,095,185

3,911,270

222,322,230

3,374,587

77.71%



Thursday 

April 22, 2021

282,183,915

4,245,040

218,947,643

2,995,734

77.59%



Wednesday

April 21, 2021

277,938,875

5,908,080

215,951,909

2,563,671

77.70%



Tuesday

April 20, 2021

272,030,795

7,525,070

213,388,238

1,806,929

78.44%



Monday 

April 19, 2021

264,505,725

0

211,581,309

2,174,495

79.99%

26,709,420

3,127,038

Sunday

April 18, 2021

264,505,725

6,010

209,406,814

3,534,901

79.17%



Saturday

April 17, 2021

264,499,715

5,996,900

205,871,913

3,589,620

77.83%



Friday

April 16, 2021

258,502,815

3,102,150

202,282,293

3,965,253

78.25%



Thursday

April 15, 2021

255,400,665

4,402,400

198,317,040

3,525,204

77.65%



Wednesday  

April 14, 2021

250,998,265

5,633,460

194,791,836

2,509,055

77.61%



Tuesday

April 13, 2021

245,364,805

7,568,500

192,282,781

2,590,736

78.37%



Monday

April 12, 2021

237,796,305

200

189,692,045

2,644,914

79.77%

29,904,910

3,214,893

Sunday

April 11, 2021

237,796,105

4,370

187,047,131

3,579,422

78.66%



Saturday

April 10, 2021

237,791,735

4,199,780

183,467,709

4,629,928

77.15%



Friady

April 9, 2021

233,591,955

4,193,270

178,837,781

3,958,065

76.56%



Thursday

April 8, 2021

229,398,685

4,104,250

174,879,716

3,403,061

76.23%



Wednesday

April 7, 2021

225,294,435

6,100,220

171,476,655

2,884,580

76.11%



Tuesday

April 6, 2021

219,194,215

11,302,820

168,592,075

1,404,280

76.91%

 

 

Monday

April 5, 2021

207,891,395

100

167,187,795

2,134,049

80.42%

27,244,830

3,053,566

Sunday

April 4, 2021

207,891,295

24,650

165,053,746

3,365,324

79.39%



Saturday

April 3, 2021

207,866,645

3,147,310

161,688,422

4,081,959

77.78%



Friday

April 2, 2021

204,719,335

4,222,700

157,606,463

3,975,059

76.99%



Thursday 

April 1, 2021

200,496,635

4,914,910

153,631,404

3,358,112

76.63%



Wednesday

March 31, 2021

195,581,725

6,130,440

150,273,292

2,670,947

76.83%



Tuesday 

March 30, 2021

189,451,285

8,804,720

147,602,345

1,789,510

77.91%



Monday

March 29, 2021

180,646,565

100

145,812,835

2,350,144

80.72%

23,912,010

2,757,586