Sunday, June 16, 2013

Bakken Construction Summit, Bismarck Civic Center, Sept 25 - 26, 2013; $1 Billion In Construction Value In 2012 In North Dakota's Oil Patch

The press release:
The Bakken Construction Summit, slated for Sept. 25 and 26, 2013 at the Civic Center in Bismarck, ND, brings together the construction and real estate development industries, service providers and other stakeholders to connect and explore construction and development markets and opportunities throughout the Williston Basin.
Although the energy industry is the driving force of economic activity in the Williston Basin, it's the construction and real estate development industries that are needed to build out the housing, industrial, commercial and other infrastructure imperative to sustaining energy and economic development in the Bakken.
"Bakken development actually started in 2000 with discovery of the Elm Coulee field in Sidney, Montana and took off in earnest in 2006 in North Dakota with EOG's Parshall Discovery. With more than twelve or six years of energy development behind us, depending on which benchmark you use, the construction industry still has a long ways to catch up to the needs of the region."
In 2012, three cities in western North Dakota logged over $1 billion in building permit valuations. Williston, Dickinson, and Minot recorded roughly $440 million, $408 million, and $247 million, respectively. Factor in Watford City, Stanley and Tioga valuations, western North Dakota's construction activity well surpassed $1 billion in construction values.

A Reminder: NDIC Archives Presentations At Its Site

June 3, 2013, presentation: 98 slides; Bakken activity update

The Burlington Resources Everlades Wells In Keene Oil Field

25237, 2,966, BR, Everglades 31-3TFH, Keene, t9/13; cum 362K 11/18;
25236, 2,954, BR, Everglades 31-3MBH, Keene, t9/13; cum 304K 11/18;
25235, 2,285, BR, Everglades 21-3TFH, Keene, t8/13; cum 327K 11/18;
25234, 2,879, BR, Everglades 41-3TFH, Keene, t8/13; cum 331K 11/18;
25233, 1,836, BR, Everglades 31-3BMH, Keene, t8/13; cum 426K 11/18; a subtle jump in 11/18;
20560, 2,124, BR, Everlades 11-3TFH, Keene, t8/12; cum 374K 11/18;
18210, 1,755, BR, Everglades 11-3H, Keene, t11/09; cum 386K 11/18;

************************************
Note bump in production between 7/13 and 2/14 after well was taken off-line while neighboring wells were fracked.
  • 20560, 2,124, BR, Everlades 11-3TFH, Keene, t8/12; cum 373K 10/18; 
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS5-201831326830161022638163040
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS4-201830355535281181748274080
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS3-201831305129151001597258950
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS2-201828433142821123816780970
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS1-20183184088838133715153150760
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS12-2017271156311448140915936158690
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS11-20171100000
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS10-201700850000
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS9-20172718061748358368936240
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS8-20173122391966371419141140

Note bump in production between 7/13 and 2/14 after well was taken off-line while neighboring wells were fracked.
  • 18210, 1,755, BR, Everglades 11-3H, Keene, t11/09; cum 359K 12/16:
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS3-2014311443214547104118029617011782
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS2-2014281595215729143030621705923493
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS1-201423942396561502775961341568
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS12-201310041200
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS11-201342400440735362
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS10-20132000500
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS9-2013105170200
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS8-20131275851996229422640
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS7-2013313091316237658545674103
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS6-20133028132770239686767920

****************************************




Other wells in graphic above:
  • 25286,  2,809, BR, Everhorse 41-3MBH-ULW, 2560-acre spacing, 30 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t8/13; cum 505K 11/18; workover May 10 - 18, 2016; original name: EverHorse 41-3MBH; permit for Three Forks;
  • 4089, PA/30, Texaco, C. O. Felland 1, a Madison well, t8/66; cum 137K 10/87
  • 3118, PA/225/22/19, Texaco, A. S. Wisness 3, Madison (1/65); Birdbear (8/62); BakkenThree Forks (5/62); cum 144K 12/89 (almost all from Madison)

The Hess EN-Weyrauch Wells

These Weyrauch wells are on multiple pads in different drilling units; later, I will separate them by pads.

6-well pad, 19-154-93
  • 26846, 753, Hess, EN-Weyrauch 154-93-1918H-9, Robinson Lake, TF B1 (sundry form: original target TF1, but requested change to target TF2; t7/14; cum 234K 5/19;
  • 25294, 953, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A 154-93-1918H-8, Robinson Lake, TF NOS (according to geology report, though sundry form originally said "Bakken"); no frack data as of 8/14; t7/14; cum 184K 5/19;
  • 25295, 729, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A 154-93-1918H-7, Robinson Lake, TF NOS, geology report not seen yet; 34 stages; 2.5 million lbs sand; t6/14; cum 139K 5/19;
  • 25296, 522, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A 154-93-1918H-6, Robinson Lake, middle Bakken, 35 stages; 1.7 million lbs sand; t10/13; cum 140K 5/19;
  • 25297, 566, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A 154-93-1918H-5, Robinson Lake, middle Bakken, 34 stages, 2.1 million lbs sand; t10/13; cum 124K 5/19;
  • 25298, 1,012, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A 154-93-1918H-4, Robinson Lake, lower TF D and upper TF C facies, 34 stages; 2.1 million lbs sand; t9/13; cum 196K 5/19;
5-well pad, 19-154-93, 100-feet south and parallel to the 6-well pad above:
  • 20902, 970, Hess, EN-Weyrauch B-154-93-3031H-2, Robinson Lake, middle Bakken; 38 stages; 4 million lbs sand/ceramic; t12/11; cum 338K 5/19; off-line as of 5/17; back on line 8/17;
  • 20901, 1,232, Hess, EN-Weyrauch B-154-93-3031H-1, Robinson Lake, middle Bakken, 38 stages; 1.7 million lbs sand/ceramic; t12/11; cum 383K 5/19;
  • 19570, AB/IAW/612, Hess, EN-Weyrauch-154-93-1918H-3, Robinson Lake, F, t10/11; cum 110K 9/14; off-line as of 9/14;
  • 19569, 600, Hess, EN-Weyrauch-154-93-1918H-2, Robinson Lake, t6/11; cum 230K 5/19; off  line as of 7/17; on line 2/19 and earlier;
  • 19568, 602, Hess, EN-Weyrauch-154-93-1918H-1, Robinson Lake, pump; t4/11; cum 231K 5/19;
4-well pad, 20-154-93, one mile to the east of the 5-well pad above:
  • 20651, 934, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-2, Robinson Lake, middle Bakken, pump; 38 stages; 2 million lbs sand/ceramic, t3/12; cum 364K 5/19;
  • 20649, 878, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-1, Robinson Lake, middle Bakken, no frack data; pump, t12/11; cum 409K 5/19;
  • 19622, PNC, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A-154-93-2017H-3PNC, Robinson Lake, (almost identical location as #20649); the pad was originally going to be a 3-well pad, but at time of PNC, the pad was reconfigured for a 4-well pad; very interesting: proposed was a stacked lateral: lateral 1 to be a Three Forks horizontal; lateral 2 to be a middle Bakken; TVD of #1 at 10,810 feet; TVD of #2 at 10,685 feet;
  • 19621, 949, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A-154-93-2017H-2, Robinson Lake, middle Bakken, runs N 20 - 17; toe ends up 200 feet from head of #25311; no frack data but everything suggests this was a middle Bakken; very interesting: proposed was a stacked lateral: lateral 1 to be a Three Forks horizontal; lateral 2 to be a middle Bakken; TVD of #1 at 10,770 feet; TVD of #2 at 10,645 feet; it looks like only the middle Bakken horizontal was drilled/fracked; t11/11; cum 136K 6/14;t1/12; cum 254K 5/19;
  • 19620, 878, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A-154-93-2017H-1, Robinson Lake, middle Bakken; 38 stages; 4 million lbs sand/ceramic; F, runs N 20-17 opposite/along #24371 TF NOS, very interesting: proposed was a stacked lateral: lateral 1 to be a Three Forks horizontal; lateral 2 to be a middle Bakken; TVD of #1 at 10,740 feet; TVD of #2 at 10,615 feet; it looks like only the middle Bakken horizontal was drilled/fracked; t11/11; cum 189K 5/19;
5-well pad, 20-154-93, just south of the pad above (same section):
  • 30301, 810, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-9, t11/16; cum 185K 5/19;
  • 30300, 961, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-8, t10/16; cum 157K 5/19;
  • 30299, 1,076, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-7, t10/16; cum 91K 5/19;
  • 30298, 794, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-6, t10/16; cum 109K 5/19;
  • 30297, 1,385, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-5, t10/16; cum 261K 5/19;
4-well pad, 20-154-93, just to the east of the pad above (same section):
  • 30318, PNC, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-13,
  • 30317, 1,685, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-12, Robinson Lake, t12/18; cum 89K 5/19;
  • 30316, 2,2159, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-11, Robinson Lake, t12/18; cum 107K 5/19;
  • 30315, 791, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-10, t10/16; cum 164K 5/19;
6-well pad, 8-154-93, two miles north of the 4-well pad above:
  • 25311, 970, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A 154-93-1720H-9, Robinson Lake, TF NOS, 35 stages; 1.8 million lbs sand; runs S 17 - 20 ; t1/14; cum 246K 5/19;
  • 25312, 939, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A 154-93-1720H-8, Robinson Lake, middle Bakken, 36 stages, 2.3 million lbs sand; runs S 17 - 20; t1/14; cum 232K 5/19;
  • 25313, 998, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A 154-93-1720H-7, Robinson Lake, TF NOS, 35 stages, 2.2 million lbs sand; runs S 17 - 20; t1/14; cum 243K 5/19;
  • 23512, 676, Hess, EN-Fretheim S-154-93-0805H-6, t9/13; cum 151K 5/19;
  • 23513, 620, Hess, EN-Fretheim S-154-93-0805H-5, t10/13; cum 159K 5/19;
  • 23514, 620, Hess, EN-Fretheim S-154-93-0805H-4, t10/13; cum 179K 5/19;
4-well pad, in 17-154-93, one mile north of the 4-well pad in 20; toes of these four wells span 1,690 feet; 950 - 200 - 530 feet
  • 24371, 842, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A 154-93-1720H-6, Robinson Lake, TF NOS, 30 stages; 2 million lbs sand; t8/13, runs S-17-20; cum 244K 5/19;
  • 24370, 770, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A 154-93-1720H-5, Robinson Lake, middle Bakken, 30 stages; 1.6 million lbs sand, runs S-17-20; t8/13; cum 195K 5/19;
  • 24369, 1,240, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A 154-93-1720H-4, Robinson Lake, TF NOS, 30 stages; 1.9 million lbs sand, runs S-17-20;  t7/13; cum 212K 5/19;
  • 24368, 1,259, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A 154-93-1720H-3, Robinson Lake, middle Bakken, 30 stages; 2 million lbs sand, runs S-17-20;  t7/13; cum 254K 5/19;
Proposals for some of the Weyrauch wells suggested stacked laterals: one lateral in the middle Bakken and one lateral in the Three Forks. This is not the first time I have seen such proposals, but it is the first time I have posted a schematic (August 18, 2014); I think Slawson and/or CLR might be doing something like this in Montana. It appears that as of August, 2014, only one horizontal had been drilled. Here is an example of stacked lateral proposal (this was for #19621, but was similar to at least two other proposed well -- see above):

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Over The Weekend, Monday; 8/14 Bakken Wells On DRL Status; Whiting With A Nice Well

Monday, June 17, 2013
  • 21257, 2,078, Whiting, Cherry State 21-16H, Pleasant Hill, t12/12; cum 44K 4/13;
  • 22723, 489, Whiting, Cherry State 21-16TFH, Pleasant Hill, t12/12; cum 11K 4/13;
  • 23304, drl, WPX, Blackhawk 1-12HW, Moccasin Creek, no data,
  • 23434, drl, Statoil, Roger Sorenson 8-5 5H, Alger, no data,
  • 23909, drl, Emerald, Arsenal (Federal) 1-17-20H, Charbonneau, no data,
  • 23945, drl, Statoil, Sanders 34-27 3TFH, Ragged Butte, no data,
Sunday, June 16, 2013
  • 23855, 700, CLR, Hamlet 5-2H, Hamlet, 4-section spacing; t5/13; cum --
  • 21841, 1,216, Zenergy, Knels 17-8H, Dore, t3/13; cum 21K 4/13;
  • 22759, 594, Zavanna, Martinez 36-25 1TFH, Foreman Butte, t2/13; cum 29K 4/13;
Saturday, June 15, 2013
  • 23743, 311, Whiting, Kuntz 34-31PH, Ukraina, t12/12; cum 11K 4/13;
  • 23936, IA, Whiting, Faiman 32-14, Hoot Owl, Red River formation; doesn't look good
  • 23944, drl, Statoil, Sanders 34-27 1H, Ragged Butte, no data,
  • 24131, drl, XTO, FBIR Walterpackswolf 31X-12H, Heart Butte, no data,
  • 24368, drl, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A-154-93-1720H-4, Robinson Lake, no data,
  • 24370, drl, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A-154-93-1720H-5, Robinson Lake, no data,
*******************************

21257, see above, Whiting, Cherry State 21-16H, Pleasant Hill:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-2013627014323
3-2013650611231
2-2013932812426
1-201383050
12-2012128060

22723, see above, Whiting, Cherry State 21-16TFH, Pleasant Hill:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-201318633967
3-201320794197
2-201329343773
1-201318830
12-201222890

21841, see above, Zenergy, Knels 17-8H, Dore:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-201365591167
3-2013137173005

22759, see above, Zavanna, Martinez 36-25 1TFH, Foreman Butte:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-201387042847
3-2013121610
2-201367510

23743, see above, Whiting, Kuntz 34-31PH, Ukraina:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20137780
3-201338830
2-201313960
1-201324500
12-201220670

Long Term, The US Energy Revolution Will Disappoint -- The Legendary Jim Rogers

Updates

Later, 1:55 pm: in the original post below I mention that I only had a snippet of the Jim Rogers interview. Don sent me the link to the full interviewI read through it quickly; it's a wide-ranging interview, and it appears the snippet below is about all that he said about the US energy revolution. Even with the full interview, I would not change a thing I wrote below regarding his comments on shale.

Original Post

That was the headline at the SeekingAlpha article -- that long term, the US energy revolution will disappoint. The writer posted a short  (one answer) from a longer interview with "the legendary Jim Rogers":
Q: Many believe the U.S. shale revolution is going to solve our energy problems? Is it over-hyped?
A: Yes, I believe it is. Regarding natural gas, the fundamentals on the ground are not nearly as good as the hype. The number of rigs on the ground has gone down 75% the last couple of years, as the wells are very short-lived, and it takes an enormous amount of money to keep them up. A number of companies have had to lower estimates of their reserves. As for oil shale, typical wells deplete at 38 percent the first year. Thus you need a lot of drilling, money, and a high price to keep up production rates. All you have to do is go out in the oil patch. I believe the investment world will be disappointed with the notion that supply is so great that oil will collapse.
We don't have the full interview but it seems the headline is misleading for investors like me, and/or I'm missing something (probably the latter).  But that last line in Jim Rogers' response didn't seem all that concerning:
I believe the investment world will be disappointed with the notion that supply is so great that oil will collapse.
Why would the investment world be disappointed with the notion that supply is so great that oil will collapse?

I'm seeing mixed messages in that reply. I guess it depends on where one is invested.

So, that's one point.

The second point: Jim Rogers does have one flaw in his argument: tracking rig counts as a 30-second proxy for the state of the oil patch. We've talked about that ad nauseum. Rig count is only one data point and is less useful for tracking/anticipating production; more useful for tracking "activity."

I, too, once tracked rig count as a proxy for production, but about a year ago or so, I realized that was no longer a valid metric for that purpose. I now track rig count in the Bakken to give me a feeling for the level of "activity" in the Bakken: jobs, trucks, pipeline being laid weekly, etc. For the operator, less rigs might be seen as "good"; for the oil service companies, less rigs might be seen as "not good."

Rig count is not even indicative of pad development any more. Once upon a time, a rig meant a new pad; now with 4, 6, 8, who-do-we-appreciate, wells on one pad, the number of rigs and/or the number of new wells correlates poorly with the number of pads.

I have to run, celebrate Father's Day, but there is one more data point that is missing from the little snippet in the Jim Rogers interview. And that data point is generally missing in every interview or story that I listen to or read about the Bakken and the US energy revolution.

I agree with the writer of the linked article. There are some great investment opportunities in the Bakken.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Dickinson Native Back In Town: Moving Up; Unrelated: An NSA Story But I Had To Put It Somewhere For The Archives

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
Erin Wanner grew up in a family that owned an oil service company, but she never thought about the industry as a career option for herself.
That all changed after the Dickinson native earned a master’s degree in business and the best job she could find was managing a Walgreens.
“That was the only choice I had. There were not jobs,” said Wanner, who was working in Dallas at the time. “And I had a master’s degree and it was really disappointing.”
In 2005, Wanner decided to return to North Dakota and work with the company owned by her father and uncle, now known as MBI Energy Services.
See the rest of her story at the linked article.  Another great "face of the Bakken."

********************
Lies, Lies, And More Lies

Wasn't it just last week we were told that the NSA was only collecting "meta-data"? Meta-data includes telephone numbers, ISPs, times, locations, but not actual monitoring of phone calls or reading e-mail.

Well, it turns out: not so fast. The NSA admits to warrentless wiretapping.  An "expert" this week on CNBC or some news show said that the NSA "leaker" was aggrandizing his position, that despite has assertions to the contrary, he was not able to listen in on conversations or read e-mail. He was a systems administrator. Now from the NSA:
National Security Agency discloses in secret Capitol Hill briefing that thousands of analysts can listen to domestic phone calls. That authorization appears to extend to e-mail and text messages too.
Systems administrators would, I assume, be among the thousands of analysts. Daily the "leaker" seems to be more credible than our government.