Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Notes From All Over -- The 8:00 P.M. Portland, Oregon Edition -- May 26, 2021

First things first. All that hand-wringing over inflation? The price of WTI fell today because the dollar got stronger

Solar panels: The other day -- two days ago, in fact --  I wrote:

I do know that for the first time in years solar panels are increasing in price. From China. I wonder what that's all about? But I digress.

Hold that thought. 

I don't know if folks are paying attention, but things are starting to "break" right for Saudi Arabia:

  • IEA says all "new" exploration needs to cease immediately;
    • Saudi would be exempt; the country doesn't do "new" exploration;
  • XOM shareholders vote for two "activist" directors;
  • Shell ordered to cut emissions by state court;
  • Chevron shareholders vote in favor of cutting emissions including from the fuels they produce;

On the other hand, more and more evidence that without (more) US offshore exploration and production, supply won't meet demand.

Snowflake: announced today it is moving its executive office from California to ... drum roll ... to Montana. Bozeman, Montana.

Amazon: buys MGM catalogue. Next move? Physical pharmacies / corner drugstores.

Crypto-mining: how much energy does it take? Iran is banning all crypto-mining during the hot summer months.

Gasoline demand: link here:

  • apparently this chart that gets reproduced every week is based on the amount of gasoline delivered to service stations; it is not the amount of gasoline actually bought by retail consumers (like you and me);
  • so, although the chart looks "bullish," it's simply service stations simply replenishing the run on gasoline from the Colonial Pipeline shutdown;
  • we'll have a better idea of what's really going on next week and the week after that when Memorial Day driving is included

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here: in a word, "bullish" as weekly reports go.
caveat: all that "5-year-average" stuff is a bit of smoke and mirrors; the last five years have been anything but "average."

  • US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.7 million bbls from the previous week;
  • US commercial crude oil in storage now stands 2% below the five-year average (of course, much of this was the pendulum swinging the other way when the Colonial Pipeline got back to normal)
  • refiners are operating at 87% of their operable capacity; unchanged for weeks;
  • US crude oil imports: down slightly last week; perhaps a reflection of the Colonial Pipeline overhang;
  • total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million bbls; about 3% below the five-year average;
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.0 million bbls; almost 8% below the five-year average;
  • jet fuel supplied double that of a year ago (up 109.6% compared to a year ago

Solar panels. Are you still holding that thought (from the first entry above)? After noting in passing the higher cost of Chinese solar panels, this story popped up over at

A Closer Look At EOG's Six New Liberty LR Permits Today -- May 26, 2021

EOG with six new permits, #38326 - #38331, inclusive:

  • Comments: EOG has permits for six Liberty LR permits
    • four of them will be sited in NWSE 23-151-91; two will be sited in NWNE/NENW 26-151-91;
      • the four in section 23 will be sited between 2465' FSL and 2330' FEL and 1025' FSL and 2300' FEL
    • the two (#38330, #38331) in section 26-151-91 will be sited in exactly the same spot, 1200' FNL and 2350' FWL according to the NDIC daily activity report, but that is incorrect according to the scout ticket:
      • 38331, Liberty LR 125-2629H, 1150 FNL 2350 FWL
      • 38330, Liberty LR 66-2629H, 1200 FNL 2350 FWL

    The six new permits:

    • 38326,Liberty LR 59-2320H,
    • 38327,Liberty LR 121-2320H,
    • 38328,Liberty LR 123-2320H,
    • 38329,Liberty LR 62-2329H,
    • 38330,Liberty LR 66-2629H,
    • 38331,Liberty LR 125-2629H,

    Producing wells and permitted sites in these two sections:

    • 19720, 510, EOG, Liberty LR 14-23H, Parshall, t4/11; cum 310K 3/21;
    • 30593, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 29-2321H, Parshall,
    • 30594, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 108-2321H, Parshall,
    • 30595, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 30-2321H, Parshall,
    • 19721, 1,063, EOG, Liberty LR 19-23H, Parshall, t3/11; cum 404K 3/21; F;
    • 18971, 894, EOG, Liberty LR 09-23H, Parshall; 320-acre spacing,  t9/10; cum 258K 3/21;
    • 26601, 1,045, EOG, Liberty LR 27-23H, Parshall, t3/14; cum 222K 3/21;
    • 26602, IA/1,135, EOG, Liberty LR 28-23H, Parshall, t3/14; cum 215K 3/20; offline;
    • 20255, 892, EOG, Liberty LR 15-26H, Parshall, t4/12; cum 389K 3/21; 
    • 20254, 980, EOG, Liberty LR 20-26H, Parshall, t12/11; cum 357K 3/21; huge jump in production, 3/21;
    • 18065, AB/369, EOG, Liberty LR 100-26H, Parshall; 320-acre spacing, t8/10; cum 100K 1/19;

    The graphics:

    CLR Brings A Rig Into The Long Creek Unit; CLR Now With Six Rigs In The Bakken; Seven New Permits; Three DUCs Completed -- Nineteen Active Rigs -- May 26, 2021

    Nvidia: up $2.09 at the close; down $4.51 after the close;

    • quarterly earnings: gaming revenue spikes 106%; data center by 79%;
    • revenue: $5.66 billioin vs $5.41 billion expected;
    • EPS: $3.66 vs $3.31 expected
    • cryptocurrency miners have been grabbing Nvidia's cards as fast as possible to use them in their mining rigs

    That’s put Nvidia in a tough spot. The last time the company saw a big run on its cards due to crypto miners, it ended up with a huge inventory overhang when the crypto boom went bust in 2018. Nvidia shares fell from a high of $281.02 in September 2018 to $129.57 in December 2018.

    To keep crypto miners from snagging all of the latest cards out there, Nvidia has moved to reduce the rate at which they mine for certain currencies, making them less appealing to miners. The idea is to show that Nvidia is set on ensuring gamers can access the cards they want.

    Which leads to the obvious question: were the superb earnings due to gamers buying Nvidia cards or to gamers buying Nvidia cards? Does it matter?

    Back to the Bakken

    Active rigs (includes two SWD rigs):

    Active Rigs2114656550

    Operators with active oi and gas rigs:

    • CLR (6): Gordon Federal, Gale, Jensen, Pasadena Federal, Harrisburg, LCU Truman Federal
      • one up from this morning; note: active rig in the Long Creek Unit
      • also has a SWD rig;
    • MRO (3): Jake, Goddard USA, Evans USA,
    • Ovintiv: Rolfsrud,
      • down one from yesterday
    • Rimrock: FBIR Guyblackhawk,
    • Slawson: Mauser Federal,
    • Enerplus: Lynx
    • Iron Oil Operating: Antelope,
    • Whiting: Cvancara,
    • Petro-Hunt: Jorgenson,
    • Oasis: Cliff
    • Crescent Point Energy: CPEUSC Burgess
    • Hess: GO-Braaten 
      • also has a SWD rig;

    Seven new permits, #38326 - #38332, inclusive:

    • Operator: EOG (6); Resonance
    • Field: Parshall (Mountrail); Westhope (Bottineau)
    • Comments: EOG has permits for six Liberty LR permits
      • four of them will be sited in NWSE 23-151-91; two will be sited in NWNE/NENW 26-151-91;
        • the four in section 23 will be sited between 2465' FSL and 2330' FEL and 1025' FSL and 2300' FEL
      • the two (#38330, #38331) in section 26-151-91 will be sited in exactly the same spot, 1200' FNL and 2350' FWL according to the NDIC daily activity report, but that is incorrect according to the scout ticket:
        • 38331, Liberty LR 125-2629H, 1150 FNL 2350 FWL
        • 38330, Liberty LR 66-2629H, 1200 FNL 2350 FWL
    • Comments: Resonance has a permit for a Resonance Ballantyne injection well
      • the well will be sited in SESE 19-163-80, 725' FSL and 165" FEL

    Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

    • 23792, TA/A, CLR, Monroe 2-2H1, Banks, no production data,
    • 23793, TA/A, CLR, Monroe 3-2H, Banks, no production data,
    • 35083, drl/A, CLR, Carson Peak 9-35H, Oakdale, first production, t--; cum --;

    Most Recent CDC Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout Data --May 26, 2021

    CDC data is here.

     The most interesting data point in today's CDC data is in the top row (2nd row), fourth column.

    The government distributed the vaccine based on how much is likely to be needed (reservations and recently, walk-ins). Except for the two weekend days, the government generally distributes 2.5 to 3.5 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine. 

    In the most recent 24-hour reporting period, the government distributed less than a million doses (844,080 doses).

    Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

    Change from day before

    Vaccinations given

    Change from day before

    Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered


    May 26, 2021







    May 25, 2021







    May 24, 2021







    May 23, 2021







    May 22, 2021







    May 21, 2021







    May 20, 2021







    May 19, 2021







    May 18, 2021







    May 17, 2021







    May 16, 2021







    May 15, 2021







    May 14, 2021







    May 13, 2021







    May 12, 2021







    May 11, 2021







    May 10, 2021







    Spotlight on Fryburg, ND

    From wiki:  

    A reader tells me the population of Fryburg, ND, is about twenty people. Don't ask how this came up in conversation. [Back in 2012, Fryburg was also mentioned on the blog back on May 20, 2012. At that time, too, it was noted that the google maps were wrong with regard to location of Fryburg.]

    Fact check.

    Google search:

    Not only are folks not sure which county Fryburg is in (Billings County or Stark County) there is a huge difference of opinion regarding the population.

    One reader suggests twenty people.

    One "google hit" suggests 800 people in "the" Fryburg that is located in Stark County, ND.

    The "preferred" internet/google answer is 23,133 people in "the" Fryburg that is located in Billings County, ND.

    Here is a photo of downtown Fryburg (the one probably located in Billings County):

    At 23,133, Fryburg would be the seventh largest city in North Dakota, beating out Dickinson (22,882), Mandan (22,301), Jamestown (15,289), and, Watford City (6,912). This is data from the US Census (no year indicated; perhaps the 1900 census).

    A Closer Look At The Slawson Case For Additional Wells In Big Bend -- May 26, 2021

    From the June 17, 2021, NDIC hearing dockets, this is a case, not a permit:

    Case 28832, Slawson, Big Bend-Bakken; i) establish an overlapping 640-acre unit; six wells on that unit; N2 sections 13/14-151-92; ii) establish an overlapping 960-acre unit; five wells on said unit; S2 sections 13/14-151-92 and the S2 section 18-151-91; iii) two additional wells along the center line of an existing 1920-acre unit; Mountrail County;

    Already sited in section 14:

    • 19010, 847, Slawson. Armada Federal 1-14-13H, two-section spacing, sections 14/13, t10/10; cum 399K 3/21;
    • 34525, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 7-14-18TFH, Big Bend, name suggests horizontal is a "3-mile" super-extended long lateral, under the river;
    • 34526, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 6-14-18TFH, Big Bend, name suggests horizontal is a "3-mile" super-extended long lateral, under the river;
    • 34619, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 3-14-18H, Big Bend, name suggests horizontal is a "3-mile" super-extended long lateral, under the river;

    Note: case 28832 regards six wells on a 640-acre spacing unit, the northern halves of the two sections in which the Armada Federal wells are already permitted; and, the southern halves of the three sections in which the Armada Federal wells are already permitted.

    Of interest: the various sizes of spacing units in same sections. There will certainly be 1920-acre spacing, already shown on the NDIC map. The case requests two wells along the center line of an existing 1920-acre unit. Possibly:

    No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- May 26, 2021

    10-yr Treasury: despite all that hand-wringing some months ago, 1.569%.

    Amazon-MGM: will happen. $8.4 billion. 

    Dividend stocks: ten bet, Mario Gabelli, FWIW, link here.

    • MPC
      • The company announced earlier this month that it signed a deal with One Energy Enterprises LLC for the installation of five wind turbines that will generate 2.3 megawatts of renewable energy at its renewable diesel plant in North Dakota. The wind turbines will help reduce MPC’s carbon footprint. For Q1 2021 the company reported a net loss of $(0.37) compared to a net loss of $(14.25) in Q1 2020. Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC) board of directors recently declared a Q1 dividend of $0.58 per share.
    • CVX
    • FirstEnergy Corp
    • AbbVie, Inc
    • T -- article doesn't mention cut in ATT's dividend
    • H&R Block, Inc
    • XOM
    • IBM
    • OKE
    • EPD

    Back to the Bakken

    Active rigs, includes one SWD rig:

    Active Rigs1914656550

    No wells coming off the confidential list.

    RBN Energy: the tremendous promise, gold-rust potential, and remarkable paradox of CO2 sequestration.

    There’s a fresh breeze blowing through the energy patch. Oil and gas companies seem to have turned a corner and are piling on the climate change bandwagon. They’re talking green, walking green, and many are in hot pursuit of government subsidies and tax breaks that are here today, with expectations that more incentives are on the way. Carbon dioxide is their primary target — it’s by far the most prevalent greenhouse gas and technologies already exist for permanently depositing captured CO2 deep underground. In fact, the U.S. is #1 in the world at this, accounting for about 80% of all the CO2 being stored globally. But it may surprise you to learn that much of the CO2 being squirreled away for eternity isn’t captured from industrial processes or exhaust. Instead, a lot of it comes from CO2 reservoirs in Colorado and New Mexico, tapped on purpose to bring vast volumes of CO2 to the surface. Why? So that CO2 can be put right back into the ground. Sound crazy? Well, it’s not. In the blog series we begin today, we explore the rapidly evolving CO2 market and the huge opportunities that await those with the ambition to pursue them.