Saturday, March 14, 2020

Best (And Worst) States To Drive In -- WalletHub -- March 14, 2020

I've said any number of times on the blog that I love the Texas highways.

Two years ago, Texas was ranked #1 by some site as the best state in the US for driving on its roads. Looking for a more recent update, here it is, WalletHub, January 21, 2020. The top five:
  • Iowa
  • Tennessee
  • North Caroline
  • Texas
  • Nebraska
Others of note:
  • North Dakota: 28
  • Minnesota: 27
  • Montana: 41
  • California: 47
  • Hawaii: 50
  • Colorado: 46
Closing the Loop

Someone asked: if everything has been canceled, why were the students allowed to take the SAT test at Lewisville (Texas) high school today. The official reason: not one diagnosed case of coronavirus in Denton County, Texas. So, there you have it. In addition, although it was not a factor per se, there were less than 150 students taking the test. It should be noted that, to the best of my knowledge, there has been no statewide closure of schools. School closures are still being done on a case-by-case basis.

Also, to the best of my knowledge, Beto O'Rourke has not yet been given the authority to take guns away from law-abiding citizens of Texas. Including AR-47s. Or whatever it was he said.

Catching Up On Old News -- DUCs -- March 14, 2020

I thought I had posted this note when it first came out, but a quick search of the blog and I couldn't find it. I would have posted it when we had that discussion about the number of DUCs in the US shale sector.

From S&P Global Platts, September 27, 2019: US producers criticize  EIA estimates clouding production outlook.
US producers may be growing increasingly skeptical of the US Energy Information Administration's estimates of drilled but uncompleted wells in shale plays, an indication that domestic output may not be able to respond to a price spike or supply disruption as rapidly as forecasts may indicate.
In its latest quarterly energy survey, the Federal Reserve of Dallas said roughly half of the oil and gas executives polled claimed EIA's was overestimating the number of drilled but uncompleted wells, or DUCs, in the Permian Basin. Roughly a quarter of those executives said EIA's Permian DUCs estimates were significantly higher than their own.
"My sense is the EIA DUC number implies more production capacity than actually exists and leads to downward revisions of supply estimates, which we have seen in the last six months," one executive from an exploration and production company wrote.
"The EIA has no clue on their estimated number of DUCs, in my opinion," wrote another, claiming that a loose definition of DUC is causing EIA to count smaller "spudder" wells and overestimate DUCs by thousands.
The survey, conducted earlier this month and released Wednesday, polled 164 energy companies, including 108 exploration and production firms, and 55 oilfield services firms.
"Not surprisingly, the majority of survey respondents believe the EIA is overestimating the number of DUCs," Sasha Sanwai, an analyst with UBS, wrote in a report Wednesday.
"Common pushbacks including the lag with reporting completions/underreporting and inclusion of spudder wells/legacy wells unlikely to be completed."
Re-posting the lede: 
" ... an indication that domestic output may not be able to respond to a price spike or supply disruption as rapidly as forecasts may indicate."
Well, so much for that concern. LOL.

Bakken DUCs are tracked here.

European Majors Reduce Refining Footprints

They see the writing on the wall:
  • the US juggernaut; and, 
  • Saudi Aramco, Prince Salman's 2020 plan
From S&P Global Platts: Shell explores sale of two US refineries --
  • Washington state: Anacortes
  • Alabama: Mobile
  • Both facilities are modest in size:
    • Mobile: 79,000 b/d; oriented toward chemicals;
    • Puget Sount: 145,000 b/d; selling this one would limie Shell's US refining presence to the Gulf coast;
      • the more complex plant
      • capable of making the low sulfur transportation fuels required by the region
  • West Coast refiners are economic; holding above $10/bbl

FracFocus -- Firefox May Not Support -- March 14, 2020

This is my "FracFocus" link.

Tonight, clicking on that link, I got a geeky dialogue box that said Firefox could no longer access that site due to some change in software -- unfortunately I did not take a screenshot.

I went back to it several hours later and got the same dialogue box. This time I clicked on "Enable TI1 / TI2" or something to that effect. Again, I made a mistake of not taking a screenshot before clicking on that "enable" option.

The dialogue box said that sometime in the future, Firefox would not be able to access that site (FracFocus) if the browser was not updated. Again, something to that effect.

I certainly don't understand it. But for now FracFocus works.

Maybe others have some insight.

I just went to the Safari browser and it worked fine.

The FracFocus URL:

Bakken Updates -- March 14, 2020

Moving along: CLR's Long Creek Unit, ten sections; about 60 wells; all wells are now on drl status or conf status; no more wells on loc status;

Hawkinson well hits 500K bbls crude oil cumulative; see this post:
  • 24224, 681, CLR, Hawkinson 5-22H, 33-025-01954; Oakdale, middle Bakken, 30 stages, 2.8 million lbs, t9/13; cum 495K 1/20, recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Interesting, see this post --
  • 33113, A/IA/1,563, CLR, Bailey 12-24H, Pershing, t6/18; cum 22K 1/20 off line a lot; remains off line 11/19; minimal production since being fracked in 2018; taken off line, never produced much at all; then all of a sudden, 7K over nine days in January, 2020:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The Equinor Cheryl/Richard wells have always been good, but they certainly seem to get better with age. They are tracked here. Two of the better ones, full production here:
  • 32289, A/IA/2,491, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 1H-R, Banks, t11/16; cum 168K 3/18; off-line 3/18; still off-line 9/18; back on linke 11/19;
  • 29610, 3,651, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 5H, Banks, t12/16; cum 329K 1/20; off-line 2/18;back on-line 5/18; huge jump in production; off line as of 12/18; back on line 5/19;

Are We About To See Some (More) Great CLR Bailey Wells In Pershing Oil Field -- March 14, 2020

I've "lost the bubble" on these CLR Bailey wells in the Pershing oil field, in the sense I recall posting something on these wells (or one of these wells) recently but can't remember what. Tonight, reviewing a couple of these wells certainly suggests something interesting is about to be reported.

The CLR Bailey/Wiley wells are tracked here.

First the wells with updated production data:
  • 33117, 1,962, CLR, Bailey 8-24H, Pershing, 66 stages; 16.1 million lbs, t6/18; cum 377K 1/20;  see this note; see this note;
  • 33116, 1,733, CLR, Bailey 9-24H2, Pershing, t6/18; cum 316K 1/20;
  • 33115, 1,950, CLR, Bailey 10-24H, Pershing, t6/18; cum 123K 4/19; remains off line 11/19; back on line 1/20;
  • 33114, 1.495, CLR, Bailey 11-24H2, Pershing, t6/18; cum 209K 1/20;  remains off line 11/19; back on line 1/20;
  • 33113, A/IA/1,563, CLR, Bailey 12-24H, Pershing, t6/18; cum 22K 1/20 off line a lot; remains off line 11/19;
  • 33112, 2,526, CLR, Wiley 8-25H, Pershing, t7/18; cum 282K 1/20;
  • 33111, 1,881, CLR, Wiley 9-25H2, Pershing, t7/18; cum 219K 1/20; off line all of 10/18; back on line as of 12/18;
  • 33110, 1,720, CLR, Wiley 10-25H, Pershing, t7/18; cum 289K 1/20;
  • 33109, 1,923, CLR, Wiley 11-25H2, Pershing, t6/18; cum 257K 1/20;
  • 33108, 1,547, CLR, Wiley 12-25H, Pershing, t7/18; cum 234K 1/20;
Now let's look at the newest production from several of these wells that were fracked back in 2018 but have been off line all of 2019.
  • 33108: typical Bakken decline; a great well, but unremarkable profile;
  • 33109: began as a nice well but declined quickly; 
  • 33110: a very good well; starts to decline slightly, then huge jump in September, 2019;
  • 33111: held high production for quite some time; remained on line since frack missing only a couple of months early on;
  • 33112: a huge well with 53K in July, 2018, and 45K in August, 2018; off line November and December, 2018, but then huge production for six months before typical Bakken decline;
  • 33113: like the others, fracked in 2018; never produced much; off line from October, 2018, to December, 2019, fifteen months; and then in January, 2020, 7K over nine days which extrapolates to 22K over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 33114: almost identical story as #33113:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 33115: almost identical story as #33113 and #22114:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 33116: a very, very good well; production has remained good; there are suggestions that there may have been a workover on this well or neighboring well in late, 2019; production jumped (or at least did not decline) and remained at a high level September, 2019 - January, 2020:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 33117: huge well; typical Bakken production

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- The Comic Page -- March 14, 2020

No sooner does former President Obama and his supporters claim they were responsible for the Trump economy and it all goes into the toilet. Literally.

Link here.

Link here.

... and if the 2020 election is canceled this is why:

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- March 14, 2020

Link here:
Meanwhile, I can’t believe it hasn’t occurred to any leftist conspiracy theorists that this whole virus thing is a conspiracy of Big Toilet Paper. After all, the dreaded Koch brothers own Georgia-Pacific, which manufactures . . . toilet paper.
Question / quote of the day: from Sophia, our 5-year-old granddaughter, soon to be six: "Are they really fake?"
Her mom: "What are you talking about?"

Sophia: "Fake newtons." She was eating "fig" newtons. LOL.
My thoughts exactly, from a reader:
My [Chicago] suburb's library is closing after today ... (I think all the suburbs libraries are closing for like 2 weeks). My area has a large population of Polish immigrants that came after Berlin Wall came down... here is what one lady said... conversation I just overheard at my library. Polish woman appeared middle age talking to another woman... says, 
"I remember growing up in Poland as a 4 year old and nothing on the shelves, but here in the United States"? 
Most libraries are well below the 500-people-at-one-time threshold. In fact, I would wager that there is no suburban library in the US that has a density of even 150 people in one room. The idea that suburbs are closing their libraries is purely ludicrous. My hunch: the librarians are refusing to show up for work. This is not rocket science. 

Week 11: March 8, 2020 -- March 14, 2020

Top international non-energy story:
  • Coronavirus.
  • First it was Italy, now it's the entire continent: out of control (coronavirus);
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota stories:
  • Oil prices plunge;
  • ND governor urges citizens not to panic 
  • Dinosaur exhibit at ND's Heritage Center and State Museum
  • Road restrictions update
  • ONEOK will cut Demicks Lake expansion; scale back Elk Creek pipeline; this should have been the top story;
  • Death of coal exaggerated as banks finance projects in China, Japan -- Bloomberg;

Bakken economy:

Bakken 101:


Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- March 14, 2020

Coronavirus: overheard at Starbucks this morning -- the next phase -- folks like me will avoid testing at all costs. I still have a life. The last thing I want to do is be confined to my little hovel for a month. So, unless I'm in the emergency room with seasonal flu symptoms and difficulty breathing, I'm not going to the doctor to see if my fever, back pains, and general malaise is due to coronavirus. The dumbest thing Tom Hanks and his wife Rita did was get tested. They are now under house arrest with minimal symptoms (she minimal; he, none) and their lives are on hold.
Hey, there's no cure for the disease once you get it. You will either get through it on your own or require medical intervention/life support. If the latter, then they will test you. But other than that, stay away from testing. If your employer is really, really generous, sure, get tested. Stay away from work and get paid for the month you are at home. But if your boss is not that generous, think twice about seeing a doctor, getting tested. Eighty percent of folks won't even know they had the virus; nineteen percent will have fever, back pain, and general malaise but not severe enough to require medical attention. One percent will require medical attention and of those one percent a handful will require hospitalization. I don't know if that's true but that's the buzz in the almost empty Starbucks, although it's starting to fill up.
Starbucks: I mentioned just a few days ago that I don't go to Starbucks any more. My place of work is now McDonalds. There are exceptions, such as days like this when I'm up at oh-dark-thirty to take a granddaughter to SAT testing and then have four hours of bliss. McDonalds is good for 2.5 hours, but four hours? Starbucks. Thank you very much.

That didn't take long: I just saw a mainstream media headline -- why have so many Americans not yet been tested for coronavirus? LOL. I did not read the story, but go back to the first note above. 

Math: prevalence of coronavirus in the US --
  • seasonal flu: 59 / 100,000 -- fifty-nine per one hundred thousand;
  • corona virus: 7 / 1,000,000 -- seven per one million [NYT: that would be like seven times worse in dog lives]
By the way, getting back to that first paragraph above -- is anyone talking about "false negatives"? No test is perfect. My hunch is that five to ten percent of folks with flu symptoms who have coronavirus and get tested will test negative. That's called a "false negative." They have the coronavirus, they have the disease, COVID-19, and they test negative. And so they are reassured, and go back into work, school, or whatever.

Back to Tom Hanks: I bet they've already broken their house arrest. Unless they ended up in the hospital -- apparently which happened, but not because they were sick enough to be hospitalized, but for quarantine. Whatever. When I was in training, we quickly learned that the last place you want to be if you do not need to be there: the hospital. Can you spell "nosocomial"? And where is the highest concentration of drug-resistant bacteria? Three guesses and the first two don't count. Something my dad always said.

Wow, this is incredible: the streets are "empty"; the parking lots are "empty"; and, no long lines for coffee and a donut at QT. Combine spring break with cornavirus panic and that's what you get. A wonderful, wonderful day for those still with a life (literally and figuratively).

How Low Can We Go? -- March 14, 2020

Gas Buddy, Oklahoma City:

How far can one drive on $1.24-gasoline?
  • the price of two NBA tickets: $124
  • $124 / $1.24 = 100 gallons
  • 30 mpg * 100 gallons = 3,000 miles
  • can that be correct? Someone might want to check that. NYT editorial board? Brian Williams?
Wow, I'm in a great mood. I was up at oh-dark-thirty to take our oldest granddaughter to SAT testing center. Wow, what a beautiful drive. I am free until noon. Four hours of bliss. My wife is still on the west coast, flying between Los Angeles (her family's home) and Portland, OR, to see the twins. She's been gone for two weeks, will be gone another two weeks. The kids have an extended school break and thus my Uber-driving is much diminished.

On her way:

I've got mine:

Happy pi day:

Wow, I'm lovin' this: I'm not missing any live sports today. I can drive the granddaughters wherever they need to go; I can take Sophia to the park; I can disinfect the apartment -- and I'm not missing anything on television. LOL.