Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Wuhan Flu: SARS-CoV-2 And COVID 19 -- February 12, 2020

This is Page Two

Coronavirus: statistics. By country.

US seasonal flu: statistics, October 5, 2019 -- May 30, 2020 (eight-month season)

Contagion factor: link here

Personal protection: And by the way, those surgical masks? They don't work. Don't even come close.
  • micrometer = micron
  • one nanometer = 0.001 micrometers
  • one nanometer = 0.001 microns
  • coronavirus: around 100 nanometers (0.1 micron)
  • flu: 80 to 120 nanometers (0.1 micron)
  • SARS virus: 100 nanometers (0.1 micron)
  • CoV-19: unknown but probably in same range (0.1 micro)
  • easily passes through surgical masks
  • even the much larger tuberculosis "germ" can pass through surgical masks
  • wearing surgical masks outdoors, where virus-laden particles easily disperse, has even less value
  • health personnel caring for SARS patients need to wear a special mask called an N-95 respirator, and those are not 100% effective; range from 50% to 95% for particles down to 0.3 microns, if worn appropriately fitted
  • human coronaviruses are between 0.1 and 0.2 microns -- one to two times below the N-95 respirator cutoff
  • which begs the question: exactly how are health care personnel protecting themselves?
  • a micron is not to be confused with a Macron; the latter is a small political figure
So, if masks are protective, which they seem to be, why is that possible: they keep folks from touching their faces. 
For The Record

I'm a coronavirus survivor. I had the coronavirus about three weeks ago. Recovered after a brief but fairly severe respiratory disease two weeks ago. I didn't mention it to anyone at the time for obvious reasons, but I am now "clear" and no longer infectious.

March 20, 2020: coronavirus update. This is incredibly fascinating. "Everyone" tells me how deadly the coronavirus is compared to seasonal flu. I'm beginning to doubt it. As of today the US has reported 16,058 cases. Most folks agree this is probably half (if not a whole lot more) than what really exists: most are asymptomatic; most of the symptomatic won't be tested, yada, yada, yada) and there have been 219 deaths (many of them from one nursing home, and from repatriated citizens early in the pandemic). But let's go with the numbers as presented:
  • 219 / 16,058 = 1.4% fatality death rate
Now, let's suggest that there are in fact, 75,000 cases in the US which is very, very, very likely. The number of deaths are as "exact" as one can get; the number of cases not.

So, we stick with the number of deaths because we know those are "exact" and move the denominator to 75,000:
  • 219 / 75,000 = 0.3% -- just about where seasonal flu is, and a whole lot less deadlier for younger folks than seasonal flu.
Italy may want to re-think its unfettered relationship with China. From the March 19, 2020, report:

5322 new cases and 427 new deaths in Italy. Italy now has the highest number of coronavirus deaths in the world, surpassing China. Italian army trucks form a long line in the center of Bergamo to transport the coffins from the Bergamo cemetery to cremation sites in other regions, as morgues can't cope with more coronavirus deaths [source and video] Obituaries in the local newspaper went from 1.5 pages on February 9, 2020, to 10 pages on March 13, 2020.
Comment: I can't remember if I posted it, but I also calculated that it was likely that within 15 days, Italy's total number of cases (not just deaths, but total number of cases) would surpass that of China. That is frightening. Consider the denominator.
March 19, 2020: season flu update. Headline round-up:
March 18, 2020, headline round-up:

March 17, 2020: articles of note --
March 14, 2020: irony -- Democrat governors from across the US are working with, coordinating with, President Trump and VP Pence. All governors have sounded positive and very appreciative of their dealings with the administration. Democrats "taunted" the president to be tested after coming in contact with that had tested positive for coronavirus. President Trump was tested and is negative. Mexico is talking about closing its border with the US because of the rapidly increasing number of cases in the US. I'll believe it when I see it. Mexico has reported no coronavirus-associated deaths, and has reported only 26 cases. First 2 deaths in New York State (United States): a 65-year old man from Suffern with “significant health problems” who passed away on Thursday and an 82-year old woman suffering from emphysema who died in Brooklyn on Friday.

March 13, 2020: Brazil president tests positive for coronavirus. Last Saturday, March 7, he was in Washington, DC, and dined with President Trump. President Trump declares coronavirus a national emergency. This is clear the tail wagging the dog. The tail being fake news / mainstream media. The dog being national governments. Ad revenue will plummet on television. This will be amazing. Two questions:
  • are emergency precautions and massive quarantines working?
  • exactly to what degree are countries being affected?

March 12, 2020: the face of death --

March 11, 2020: Italy is out of control. It has two problems, perhaps three --
  • epicenter of EU coronavirus crisis; we're not being told why;
  • unable to report accurately;
  • health care system is unlikely unable to cope
March 7, 2020: Italy is truly out of control. Italy plans large-scale lockdown in country's north to fight coronavirus. Quarantine, if approved, would ban movement into/out of northern provinces, including Milan, Venice, and Parma. Italy probably should have done this a week ago. A little late now. Infected most of the EU. Lombardy is Italy's major industrial region; would wreak havoc on Italy's fragile economy. I believe Italy may be the second largest economy, after Germany, in the EU. 

March 5, 2020:
  • Italy out of control: 769 new cases. Compare with --
    • China: 160
    • South Korea: 467
    • Iran: 591  
  • Deaths 
    • With 41 new deaths today, Italy has recorded more new deaths than China (32) today. The Chinese number is "final" for the day; the Italy number could yet rise.
March 4, 2020: County of Los Angeles declares emergency; nine new cases in California; six in Los Angeles County; Democrats declare for "open borders."

March 1, 2020:
  • US: second death; also in Seattle area; only two deaths in US, both in Washington state; first case in New York state; women traveled from Iran where there is a huge outbreak; tell me again why we are allowing flights originating in Iran to come to US;
  • Italy: Italy in deep doo-doo. Outside of China, Italy had the most new deaths in the past 24 hours, even more than Iran (although I have doubts about accuracy of Iran's numbers). Most concerning, the Diamond Princess cruise ship reports another death; the good news for the Diamond Princess: another day, no new cases. Italy is clearly the "super spreader" right now. Most of the new EU deaths can be traced back to Italy. If President Trump hopes to save his presidency, he needs to be much more forceful. He needs to quit the "politics" and the "joking" -- he needs to focus completely on coronavirus. He can tweet all he wants but he needs to focus on the science of coronavirus, not the politics. Monday he needs to ban all air flights that originate in Italy until Italy shows they've got a "handle on this." American Airlines has announced it is suspending flights to and from Milan, Italy, from both New York and Miami from March 1, 2020 until April 25, 2020, citing reduced demand. The announcement comes only hours after the U.S. State Department said it was raising its travel warning to Level 4: Do Not Travel for parts of Italy due to the coronavirus outbreak. "Parts of Italy" does not cut it; complete travel ban on any flights that originate in Italy, and then "back off" as numbers improve. Look at the surge in new cases in Italy; compare to South Korea.

February 29, 2020: major update; commentary; Diamond Princess case study; season flu update.

February 26, 2020: an update. Out of control -- Schumer, Pelosi.

February 24, 2020: an update. Is anyone paying attention?

February 22, 2020: an update. The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

February 21, 2020: is South Korea next?

February 17, 2020: turning point or "dead-flu bounce"?

February 15, 2020: the Chinese are still "re-adjusting" their numbers after changes in the way they diagnose COVID-19:

February 14, 2020: yesterday the big news in north Texas was the fact that the first case of coronavirus-related illness had been confirmed in the great state of Texas. Really? I was curious.
It turned out that the patient was one of among several hundred US citizens that had been evacuated from China some days ago and were being quarantined on a USAF base (Lackland AFB, San Antonio, TX). I hardly consider this the first Texas case of COVID-19. At best, it should be considered a "federal" case, and if contracted in China, where it obviously was, is China also counting this as one of their cases? This individual obviously had the virus before he/she left China. But it will be a great public health case study. The patient exposed upwards of 250 people on that long, long flight from China, and who knows how many more were exposed at the airport before he/she departed.
The patient's' condition was not released. Upwards of 85% of cases are not much more than "colds" with a fever, around 10% are severe. Death rate is around 2% -- much less than SARS-1, and mostly affects those with other underlying conditions.
February 14, 2020:

February 13, 2020, 9:47 p.m. CT:
I did not hear this mentioned on any network today -- that the number of deaths -- day-over-day -- decreased by 51%, link here:

February 13, 2020: new names --
  • the new name for the virus: SARS-CoV-2
  • the respiratory illness it causes: COVID-19 (some call is the "Wu Flu")
  • for that other disease:
    • the disease: SARS
    • the virus: SARS-CoV
February 13, 2020, link:

In 50+ years of studying biology, medicine, and statistics, I have never, never seen an epidemiological graph that looked like this. The only explanation: the Chinese are using the DNC-Iowa app to tabulate deaths.

February 12, 2020:

Original Post

The EIA weekly report this week was quite fascinating.

1. The overall report suggests that China's coronavirus story is moderating; everything suggests that oil traders expect Chinese demand for oil to get back to "normal" soon.
  • a whopping increase in storage -- this was one of the highest builds in the last 64 weeks of re-balancing;
  • what amazes me most is that the EIA still says US crude oil in storage is still about 2% less than the average for this time of year; that may be true but the EIA fails to remind folks that US oil in storage has been increasing for the past few years due to shale revolution;
  • there was a huge increase in oil inventories, and yet WTI surged; does storage metrics even matter any more? It's all about Chinese demand, and global demand.
  • other data points suggest the Chinese coronavirus story is moderating
  • jet fuel supplied dropped week-over-week last week but this time week-over-week jet fuel supplied actually increased a bit -- another data point suggesting things might be getting back to normal. 
2. It's possible the fact that oil jumped in price despite a whopping jump in oil storage is related to the New Hampshire turnout in which Trump clearly dominated, despite the mainstream media completely missing (or at least not reporting) that story.
Without question, the big story in New Hampshire was the "Trump" story. Sure, we were all fascinated by Biden collapsing, but oil traders are more interested in global oil demand.
The price of WTI has dropped back a bit since 9:30 a.m. CT when today's report came out, but WTI is still up 2.6%.
3. I was also impressed by the change in oil imports. Last week it was close to flat; this week, up about 363,000 bopd from the previous week; not much in the overall daily imports, but notable. It's very possible it's simply due to one or two VLCC deliveries.

4. Same with jet fuel deliveries. Last week, jet fuel deliveries were down about 0.5%; this week, up about 0.7%.

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