Wednesday, February 12, 2020

SARS-CoV-2 And COVID 19 -- Or As Some Call It, "The Wu Flu" -- February 12, 2020

Coronavirus: statistics. By country.

US seasonal flu: statistics, October 5, 2019 -- May 30, 2020 (eight-month season)

Personal protection: And by the way, those surgical masks? They don't work. Don't even come close.
  • micrometer = micron
  • one nanometer = 0.001 micrometers
  • one nanometer = 0.001 microns
  • coronavirus: around 100 nanometers (0.1 micron)
  • flu: 80 to 120 nanometers (0.1 micron)
  • SARS virus: 100 nanometers (0.1 micron)
  • CoV-19: unknown but probably in same range (0.1 micro)
  • easily passes through surgical masks
  • even the much larger tuberculosis "germ" can pass through surgical masks
  • wearing surgical masks outdoors, where virus-laden particles easily disperse, has even less value
  • health personnel caring for SARS patients need to wear a special mask called an N-95 respirator, and those are not 100% effective; range from 50% to 95% for particles down to 0.3 microns, if worn appropriately fitted
  • human coronaviruses are between 0.1 and 0.2 microns -- one to two times below the N-95 respirator cutoff
  • which begs the question: exactly how are health care personnel protecting themselves?
  • a micron is not to be confused with a Macron; the latter is a small political figure

February 26, 2020: an update. Out of control -- Schumer, Pelosi.

February 24, 2020: an update. Is anyone paying attention?

February 22, 2020: an update. The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

February 21, 2020: is South Korea next?

February 17, 2020: turning point or "dead-flu bounce"?

February 15, 2020: the Chinese are still "re-adjusting" their numbers after changes in the way they diagnose COVID-19:

February 14, 2020: yesterday the big news in north Texas was the fact that the first case of coronavirus-related illness had been confirmed in the great state of Texas. Really? I was curious.
It turned out that the patient was one of among several hundred US citizens that had been evacuated from China some days ago and were being quarantined on a USAF base (Lackland AFB, San Antonio, TX). I hardly consider this the first Texas case of COVID-19. At best, it should be considered a "federal" case, and if contracted in China, where it obviously was, is China also counting this as one of their cases? This individual obviously had the virus before he/she left China. But it will be a great public health case study. The patient exposed upwards of 250 people on that long, long flight from China, and who knows how many more were exposed at the airport before he/she departed.
The patient's' condition was not released. Upwards of 85% of cases are not much more than "colds" with a fever, around 10% are severe. Death rate is around 2% -- much less than SARS-1, and mostly affects those with other underlying conditions.

February 14, 2020:

February 13, 2020, 9:47 p.m. CT:
I did not hear this mentioned on any network today -- that the number of deaths -- day-over-day -- decreased by 51%, link here:

February 13, 2020: new names --
  • the new name for the virus: SARS-CoV-2
  • the respiratory illness it causes: COVID-19 (some call is the "Wu Flu")
  • for that other disease:
    • the disease: SARS
    • the virus: SARS-CoV
February 13, 2020, link:

In 50+ years of studying biology, medicine, and statistics, I have never, never seen an epidemiological graph that looked like this. The only explanation: the Chinese are using the DNC-Iowa app to tabulate deaths.

February 12, 2020:

Original Post

The EIA weekly report this week was quite fascinating.

1. The overall report suggests that China's coronavirus story is moderating; everything suggests that oil traders expect Chinese demand for oil to get back to "normal" soon.
  • a whopping increase in storage -- this was one of the highest builds in the last 64 weeks of re-balancing;
  • what amazes me most is that the EIA still says US crude oil in storage is still about 2% less than the average for this time of year; that may be true but the EIA fails to remind folks that US oil in storage has been increasing for the past few years due to shale revolution;
  • there was a huge increase in oil inventories, and yet WTI surged; does storage metrics even matter any more? It's all about Chinese demand, and global demand.
  • other data points suggest the Chinese coronavirus story is moderating
  • jet fuel supplied dropped week-over-week last week but this time week-over-week jet fuel supplied actually increased a bit -- another data point suggesting things might be getting back to normal. 
2. It's possible the fact that oil jumped in price despite a whopping jump in oil storage is related to the New Hampshire turnout in which Trump clearly dominated, despite the mainstream media completely missing (or at least not reporting) that story.
Without question, the big story in New Hampshire was the "Trump" story. Sure, we were all fascinated by Biden collapsing, but oil traders are more interested in global oil demand.
The price of WTI has dropped back a bit since 9:30 a.m. CT when today's report came out, but WTI is still up 2.6%.
3. I was also impressed by the change in oil imports. Last week it was close to flat; this week, up about 363,000 bopd from the previous week; not much in the overall daily imports, but notable. It's very possible it's simply due to one or two VLCC deliveries.

4. Same with jet fuel deliveries. Last week, jet fuel deliveries were down about 0.5%; this week, up about 0.7%.

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