This is Page Two
Coronavirus: statistics. By country.
US seasonal flu: statistics, October 5, 2019 -- May 30, 2020 (eight-month season)
Contagion factor: link here.
Personal protection: And by the way, those surgical masks? They don't work. Don't even come close.
- micrometer = micron
- one nanometer = 0.001 micrometers
- one nanometer = 0.001 microns
- coronavirus: around 100 nanometers (0.1 micron)
- flu: 80 to 120 nanometers (0.1 micron)
- SARS virus: 100 nanometers (0.1 micron)
- CoV-19: unknown but probably in same range (0.1 micro)
- easily passes through surgical masks
- even the much larger tuberculosis "germ" can pass through surgical masks
- wearing surgical masks outdoors, where virus-laden particles easily disperse, has even less value
- health personnel caring for SARS patients need to wear a special mask called an N-95 respirator, and those are not 100% effective; range from 50% to 95% for particles down to 0.3 microns, if worn appropriately fitted
- human coronaviruses are between 0.1 and 0.2 microns -- one to two times below the N-95 respirator cutoff
- which begs the question: exactly how are health care personnel protecting themselves?
- a micron is not to be confused with a Macron; the latter is a small political figure
For The Record
I'm a coronavirus survivor. I had the coronavirus about three weeks ago. Recovered after a brief but fairly severe respiratory disease two weeks ago. I didn't mention it to anyone at the time for obvious reasons, but I am now "clear" and no longer infectious.
March 20, 2020: coronavirus update. This is incredibly fascinating. "Everyone" tells me how deadly the coronavirus is compared to seasonal flu. I'm beginning to doubt it. As of today the US has reported 16,058 cases. Most folks agree this is probably half (if not a whole lot more) than what really exists: most are asymptomatic; most of the symptomatic won't be tested, yada, yada, yada) and there have been 219 deaths (many of them from one nursing home, and from repatriated citizens early in the pandemic). But let's go with the numbers as presented:
- 219 / 16,058 = 1.4% fatality death rate
So, we stick with the number of deaths because we know those are "exact" and move the denominator to 75,000:
- 219 / 75,000 = 0.3% -- just about where seasonal flu is, and a whole lot less deadlier for younger folks than seasonal flu.
5322 new cases and 427 new deaths in Italy. Italy now has the highest number of coronavirus deaths in the world, surpassing China. Italian army trucks form a long line in the center of Bergamo to transport the coffins from the Bergamo cemetery to cremation sites in other regions, as morgues can't cope with more coronavirus deaths [source and video] Obituaries in the local newspaper went from 1.5 pages on February 9, 2020, to 10 pages on March 13, 2020.
Comment: I can't remember if I posted it, but I also calculated that it was likely that within 15 days, Italy's total number of cases (not just deaths, but total number of cases) would surpass that of China. That is frightening. Consider the denominator.March 19, 2020: season flu update. Headline round-up:
- a fiasco in the making; as the pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data;
- going to calm you down;
- Wahun virus: it's not a coincidence;
- your CDC at work; a most interesting article; researchers were concerned about such a pandemic back in 2007;
- a fiasco in the making;
- Baltimore gun control, not working (https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/18/baltimore-mayor-residents-quit-shooting-each-other-we-need-hospital-beds-virus-victims/).
- an optimistic take on COVID-19;
- for nervous investors;
March 17, 2020: articles of note --
- a single traveler from China infected 39 people in Washington state (https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/03/17/wuhan-report-one-traveller-from-china-infected-39-people-in-washington-state/.)
- one quarter of all US deaths, to date, have come from one nursing home in Washington state;
- the case that mainstream coronavirus forecasts are too gloomy;
- coronavirus mortality varies by country; deaths in Italy and Spain are increasing much more rapidly than they did in China;
- why Italy and Iran;
- what price chloroquine?
- slightly high ambient temperature helps stop the spread of coronavirus;
March 13, 2020: Brazil president tests positive for coronavirus. Last Saturday, March 7, he was in Washington, DC, and dined with President Trump. President Trump declares coronavirus a national emergency. This is clear the tail wagging the dog. The tail being fake news / mainstream media. The dog being national governments. Ad revenue will plummet on television. This will be amazing. Two questions:
- are emergency precautions and massive quarantines working?
- exactly to what degree are countries being affected?
March 12, 2020: the face of death --
March 11, 2020: Italy is out of control. It has two problems, perhaps three --
- epicenter of EU coronavirus crisis; we're not being told why;
- unable to report accurately;
- health care system is unlikely unable to cope
March 5, 2020:
- Italy out of control: 769 new cases. Compare with --
- China: 160
- South Korea: 467
- Iran: 591
- With 41 new deaths today, Italy has recorded more new deaths than China (32) today. The Chinese number is "final" for the day; the Italy number could yet rise.
March 1, 2020:
- US: second death; also in Seattle area; only two deaths in US, both in Washington state; first case in New York state; women traveled from Iran where there is a huge outbreak; tell me again why we are allowing flights originating in Iran to come to US;
- Italy: Italy in deep doo-doo. Outside of China, Italy had the most new deaths in the past 24 hours, even more than Iran (although I have doubts about accuracy of Iran's numbers). Most concerning, the Diamond Princess cruise ship reports another death; the good news for the Diamond Princess: another day, no new cases. Italy is clearly the "super spreader" right now. Most of the new EU deaths can be traced back to Italy. If President Trump hopes to save his presidency, he needs to be much more forceful. He needs to quit the "politics" and the "joking" -- he needs to focus completely on coronavirus. He can tweet all he wants but he needs to focus on the science of coronavirus, not the politics. Monday he needs to ban all air flights that originate in Italy until Italy shows they've got a "handle on this." American Airlines has announced it is suspending flights to and from Milan, Italy, from both New York and Miami from March 1, 2020 until April 25, 2020, citing reduced demand. The announcement comes only hours after the U.S. State Department said it was raising its travel warning to Level 4: Do Not Travel for parts of Italy due to the coronavirus outbreak. "Parts of Italy" does not cut it; complete travel ban on any flights that originate in Italy, and then "back off" as numbers improve. Look at the surge in new cases in Italy; compare to South Korea.
February 29, 2020: major update; commentary; Diamond Princess case study; season flu update.
February 26, 2020: an update. Out of control -- Schumer, Pelosi.
February 24, 2020: an update. Is anyone paying attention?
February 22, 2020: an update. The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.
February 21, 2020: is South Korea next?
February 17, 2020: turning point or "dead-flu bounce"?
February 15, 2020: the Chinese are still "re-adjusting" their numbers after changes in the way they diagnose COVID-19:
February 14, 2020: yesterday the big news in north Texas was the fact that the first case of coronavirus-related illness had been confirmed in the great state of Texas. Really? I was curious.
It turned out that the patient was one of among several hundred US citizens that had been evacuated from China some days ago and were being quarantined on a USAF base (Lackland AFB, San Antonio, TX). I hardly consider this the first Texas case of COVID-19. At best, it should be considered a "federal" case, and if contracted in China, where it obviously was, is China also counting this as one of their cases? This individual obviously had the virus before he/she left China. But it will be a great public health case study. The patient exposed upwards of 250 people on that long, long flight from China, and who knows how many more were exposed at the airport before he/she departed.
The patient's' condition was not released. Upwards of 85% of cases are not much more than "colds" with a fever, around 10% are severe. Death rate is around 2% -- much less than SARS-1, and mostly affects those with other underlying conditions.February 14, 2020:
February 13, 2020, 9:47 p.m. CT:
I did not hear this mentioned on any network today -- that the number of deaths -- day-over-day -- decreased by 51%, link here:
February 13, 2020: new names --
- the new name for the virus: SARS-CoV-2
- the respiratory illness it causes: COVID-19 (some call is the "Wu Flu")
- for that other disease:
- the disease: SARS
- the virus: SARS-CoV
In 50+ years of studying biology, medicine, and statistics, I have never, never seen an epidemiological graph that looked like this. The only explanation: the Chinese are using the DNC-Iowa app to tabulate deaths.
February 12, 2020:
The EIA weekly report this week was quite fascinating.
1. The overall report suggests that China's coronavirus story is moderating; everything suggests that oil traders expect Chinese demand for oil to get back to "normal" soon.
- a whopping increase in storage -- this was one of the highest builds in the last 64 weeks of re-balancing;
- what amazes me most is that the EIA still says US crude oil in storage is still about 2% less than the average for this time of year; that may be true but the EIA fails to remind folks that US oil in storage has been increasing for the past few years due to shale revolution;
- there was a huge increase in oil inventories, and yet WTI surged; does storage metrics even matter any more? It's all about Chinese demand, and global demand.
- other data points suggest the Chinese coronavirus story is moderating
- jet fuel supplied dropped week-over-week last week but this time week-over-week jet fuel supplied actually increased a bit -- another data point suggesting things might be getting back to normal.
Without question, the big story in New Hampshire was the "Trump" story. Sure, we were all fascinated by Biden collapsing, but oil traders are more interested in global oil demand.
The price of WTI has dropped back a bit since 9:30 a.m. CT when today's report came out, but WTI is still up 2.6%.3. I was also impressed by the change in oil imports. Last week it was close to flat; this week, up about 363,000 bopd from the previous week; not much in the overall daily imports, but notable. It's very possible it's simply due to one or two VLCC deliveries.
4. Same with jet fuel deliveries. Last week, jet fuel deliveries were down about 0.5%; this week, up about 0.7%.