Saturday, November 30, 2019

Last Note For The Night -- November 30, 2019

After being gone for a week, Sophia is back in town. She and I have a play date tomorrow.

She wants to go to McDonald's. LOL.

According to her older sister and her dad, Sophia has a new "best restaurant": the Waffle House.

I kid you not. We have two Waffle House restaurants nearby. I can't wait to take her.

Off the net until tomorrow.

Permian Doldrums? -- November 30, 2019

Hey, how about Auburn? Killed #5 Alabama's hope of any bowl games. Go Auburn! 

By the way, Texas high school football: regional playoffs. As good as anything the NFL has to offer. LOL.

Don't believe the hype: Texas wildcatters "scoff" at growth predictions. From Bloomberg.
Texas wildcatters, after years eye-rolling at shale skeptics, are now saying global analysts are underestimating just how severe the industry’s slowdown is.
What’s ticking folks off these days is how the International Energy Agency in Paris and the Energy Information Administration in Washington still predict robust U.S.production growth next year, despite the dire reality on the ground. The IEA expects an increase of 900,000 barrels a day, while the EIA forecasts 1 million, which would mean practically replicating this year’s expansion.
Those projections don’t jibe with the vibe in Texas, home to about half of U.S. crude output. Capital-hungry producers are being starved of funding, stocks have plunged and there’s been zero appetite for public offerings, making the downturn potentially more enduring than previous price-related busts.
“All I know is, after 47 years, they’re usually wrong.” Frank Lodzinski, an industry veteran of almost five decades who’s chief executive officer at shale explorer Earthstone Energy Inc., said of the forecasts. “I can’t remember another time when oil was $55 and the industry was in such shambles.”
A drag: the Permian Basin is dragging down jobs in Texas -- Dallas Fed.
The world’s biggest shale patch is now officially a drag on jobs creation in the Lone Star state.
Employment in the Permian Basin of West Texas has fallen by 400 jobs through the first 10 months of the year, a massive change from the 16,700 jobs added through the same period last year, according to a report Wednesday from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
“Permian Basin job growth has been sluggish this year,” according to the report. “This marks the first time since 2016 that Permian Basin employment has lagged Texas job growth.”
Two comments:
  • Hey! That's the nature of oil booms, cycles; and,
  • I still agree with Lynn Helms: the Bakken is still the best play in North America. But then, at least one of us is very biased. LOL.

Global Warming -- Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- November 30, 2019

From Minnesota, an article that "no one" will read but an article that says it all.
The sad story of Minnesota’s green energy failure is one that no doubt is being replicated around the country. And one of the ironies of green energy is that it is terrible for the environment. Both wind and solar energy require enormous amounts of land compared with conventional, reliable energy sources. Minnesota has scarred its landscape with endless acres of giant windmills and, to a lesser degree, solar panels. When those windmills begin to rust and fall still, the environmental damage will be even greater. And the green cronies who are now making millions through their political connections will be long gone.
Bay area freezes. San Francisco ties cold record.

Wind power: incredibly impossible.
Using wind power to replace the 3.9 billion megawatt-hours that Americans consumed in 2018, coal and gas-fired backup power plants, natural gas for home heating, coal and gas for factories, and gasoline for vehicles – while generating enough extra electricity every windy day to charge batteries for just seven straight windless days – would require some 14 million 1.8-MW wind turbines.
Those turbines would sprawl across three-fourths of the Lower 48 US states – and require 15 billion tons of steel, concrete and other raw materials. They would wipe out eagles, hawks, bats and other species.
I don't care for karaoke, but the accordion brought me here:

OMG! Amazon Owns Two, And Will Have A Third, Whole Foods Stores In Baltimore, MD -- November 30, 2019

AmazonLink here.
Amazon owns two Whole Foods grocery stores in Baltimore and is opening a third, and recently began free delivery to Prime members without a fee. In a dozen convenience stores, it operates Amazon Lockers, where customers can pick up purchases. It has enlisted Kohl’s stores to handle returns. Its trucks and vans are everywhere.
Its trucks and vans are everywhere. Time to break up Amazon.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Suncor: Barron's -- 
  • a pipeline of cash
  • virtually unlimited reserves
  • "ample" dividend
  • P/E: 14
  • pays 4%
  • record data: December 3, 2019; pay date: Christmas Eve
  • and, the US needs heavy oil
Theme from Young Lovers, The Tornados

A Reporter Affected With TDS Is Fired -- November 30, 2019

I really don't care what her side of the story is.

Later: another reporter pays the price for TDS.
It turns out Newsweek was not amused. The reporter, Jessica Kwong, has been fired. She tells her side of the story:
Kwong told the Washington Examiner that she was assigned to write a story about what the president was doing on Thanksgiving a week in advance and filed it to her editors on Wednesday. Then, she explained that she sent a message to the editor on duty with the president’s latest actions and the editor published the piece. That editor decided to have a reporter write a new story on Trump’s surprise trip to Afghanistan, and neglected to update Kwong’s original piece in a timely manner.
The root of the problem, of course, is that Newsweek, like pretty much all news outlets, is interested in bringing down President Trump, not in reporting the news.
This is why we see such mistakes in the press, over and over, and always in the same direction.
The original post (previously posted):

Snopes To Fact Check?

I thought this was a joke -- that Newsweek was going to publish a story reporting that President Trump would be golfing over Thanksgiving.

But, according to talk radio here in Texas, Newsweek had the story all written -- that President Trump had spent the Thanksgiving holiday golfing in Mar-a-Lago, holding the story until the "facts, dates, specifics" were filled in.

Apparently the "news" outlet had to scramble to write the "real" story once it was learned that he was in Afghanistan -- the first trip he has ever made to Afghanistan. 

Slawson's Tempest In Big Bend, A Re-Entry Well -- November 30, 2019

A short note posted for a Slawson re-entry, second lateral drilled, a Tempest well in Big Bend.

Agent 99

Might These Be Extended Long Laterals? -- November 30, 2019

I'm getting ahead of my headlights.

This may be inaccurate.

If this important to you, go to the source; don't rely on this note.

This is based on the map and four wells on confidential status. Because these four wells are on confidential status, I do not for sure where the horizontals will run but based on several data points, it appears these four wells will be extended long laterals running north. These wells will come off the confidential list January 9, 2020.

The wells:
  • 36010, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 LW 1H, Sanish:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36011, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 2TFH, Sanish:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36012, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 3H, Sanish:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36013, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 4TFH, Sanish:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

The graphic:

In addition, section 23-153-92, the sourthernmost section of the 3-section drilling unit, is also a 640-acre drilling unit with three producing wells (short laterals, of course), and Kraken is asking to put a fourth 640-acre well in that section (December, 2019, dockets, case #28175.

Those wells, all short laterals:
  • 16935, 780, Kraken, Frandson 11-23H, Sanish, t6/08; cum 195K 9/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 22563, 704, Kraken, Hukkanen 11-23H, Sanish, t6/012; cum 155K 9/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 22853, 687, Kraken, Isaac 11-23H, Sanish, t7/012; cum 134K 9/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Keeping America Great -- November 30, 2019

I could be wrong, but it was my perception that the mainstream media was suggesting this would be a flat Black Friday.  This was the banner on Drudge Report for almost two full days, but as soon as the numbers came in, this banner was dropped and replaced by a non-story. Wow, everyone's a nayayer.

But not to be.

Recession Is Just Around The Corner

From another source; google phrases if you want to find source:
Don't throw in the towel on the U.S. economy just yet.

Black Friday sales are the latest sign that the U.S. consumer, which makes up about 70 percent of the economy, is alive and well.

"All this talk of recession, and you know I thought that was ridiculous talk, it's not going to happen," Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz Global Investors, told FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo on Monday. "The U.S. consumer is in a really good place and the U.S. consumer is the main driver of this economy."

Spending figures from the Black Friday weekend showed online shoppers spent a record $7.4 billion, almost as much as the $7.9 billion they spent during last year's Cyber Monday. That’s in addition to the $4.2 billion they spent online on Thanksgiving Day, which was 14.5 percent higher than last year's spending.
So let's take a look.

Link here.

From the linked story:
This year's Black Friday was the biggest ever for online sales, as fewer people hit the stores and shoppers rang up $7.4 billion in transactions from their phones, computers and tablets.
That's just behind the $7.9 billion haul of last year's Cyber Monday, which holds the one-day record for online sales, according to Adobe Analytics. Adobe measures sales at 80 of the top 100 U.S. online retailers.

So, now, on to Cyber Monday. 

XTO Well Goes Over 500,000 Bbls Cumulative -- November 30, 2019

See this post: XTO plans injection EOR pilot operation

The well:
  •  29673, 1,987, XTO, Werre Trust 44X-34G, Bear Creek, t6/15; cum 505K 10/19;
Period of production interest, production has since decreased to 6,000 bbls/month, 10/19:

Independence Day -- November 30, 2019

Before getting started, from August 22, 2019:

Never mind.

By the way, if you ever want to find that clip quickly, search "doofus."

US energy independence: top story of the week. "Everybody" is reporting this story -- except the mainstream media, CNBC, network news, NPR, and/or The Rolling Stone:

From the Bloomberg story:
The U.S. solidified its status as an energy producer by posting the first full month as a net exporter of crude and petroleum products since government records began in 1949.
The nation exported 89,000 barrels a day more than it imported in September, according to data from the Energy Information Administration Friday. While the U.S. has previously reported net exports on a weekly basis, today’s figures mark a key milestone that few would have predicted just a decade ago, before the onset of the shale boom.
President Donald Trump has touted American energy independence, saying that the nation is moving away from relying on foreign oil. While the net exports show decreasing reliance on imports, the U.S. still continues to buy heavy crude oil from other nations to meet the needs of its refineries. It also buys refined products when they are available for a lower cost from foreign suppliers. [Bloomberg conveniently omits the reason the US needs to import heavy crude oil from the Mideast.]
“The U.S. return to being a net exporter serves to remind how the oil industry can deliver surprises -- in this case, the shale oil revolution - that upend global oil prices, production, and trade flows,” said Bob McNally, a former energy adviser to President George W. Bush and president of the consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group.

EIA's official production data for September, 2019: link here

The shale revolution: earlier this year, the EIA added new production plays to its weekly oil reports.

This is perhaps most surprising news of the day, however.  "Everyone" knew the US was on its way to energy independence; no one saw this coming. Link here.

Previously Posted

Peak oil? What peak oil? US September crude oil production at 12.463 million bopd vs 12.397 (revised up from 12.365) million bopd in August; about a half-percent increase month-over-month, but September numbers will probably be revised up also. STEO report forecast 12.59 million bopd for September. So, actual production came in at a bit less than projected.

Also from twitter earlier today:

And The Trend Will Continue

From a SeekingAlpha contributor:
  • US oil production has been the least surprising variable this year.
  • the growth trajectory is so far in-line with previous estimates with year-end figures ranging between ~12.8 to ~12.9 mb/d
  • one thing is of certainty now though - the weekly + adjustment US oil production in the weekly EIA reports no longer explains production
  • in September, weekly + adjustment showed an implied US oil production of 13.156 mb/d, while EIA 914 showed ~12.463 mb/d. This is a delta of ~693k b/d
  • according to our US oil production matrix, we have US oil production at ~12.7 mb/d for October, which is ~240k b/d higher m-o-m. 
  • for the year-end, the exit appears to be ~12.9 mb/d with Q1 showing slightly lower production

Week 48: November 24, 2019 -- November 30, 2019

There were a number of energy records broken this past week. Those stories are posted elsewhere.

Top international non-energy story:
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Friday, November 29, 2019

Production Data For A CLR Angus Well Recently Coming Off Confidential List -- November 29, 2019

This page won't be updated. The CLR Angus wells are tracked here; and, Angus Federal and other related wells tracked here.

The well:
  • 33965, 2,746, CLR, Angus Federal 6-16H2, Elm Tree, nice production; 37K first full month; 26K in 16 days extrapoloates to almost 50,000 bbls/month;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The Staggering Bakken -- EIA -- November 29, 2019

Link here.

I'm taking the rest of the night off. Good luck to all. I won't be answering e-mail or comments.

Nothing About The Bakken -- But A Great Soccer/Goalie Video -- November 29, 2019

Yes, goalies can use their paws. 

Link here.

The Comic Page

Thanksgiving Day in pictures.

Global Warming? Now It's Down To Two Years, Maybe One Year -- November 29, 2019


December 2, 2019: now it's down to one year. LOL. Link here.  

Original Post 

Did anyone catch this?

Some "experts"  now suggest we have only two years when it comes to global warming.

I cannot make this stuff up.

From S&P Global Platts:
While major economies are yet to commit to extending Paris Agreement commitments, more than 70 countries, 10 regions and 102 cities, including California, New York State, Tokyo and Rio de Janeiro, have committed to work towards net zero emissions status by 2050, according to the UN.

Data gathered by Platts show the vast majority of emissions are focused on energy and transport, where cleaner technologies already exist and, in electricity generation at least, the costs are reaching grid parity after 20 years of support.

"Unless in the next one or two years countries double or triple their pledges and fully implement them, we won't meet Paris, and we will be on a pathway of greater than 2 degrees Celsius with profoundly negative consequences," Watson told the BBC on Wednesday.

"When the US pulls out it will make it harder to make 2 degrees, while sending the signal to the rest of the world that, if one of the richest counties can't be bothered, why should anybody else?" Watson said. [To be more precise, he "asked."]
Two years:
  • double or triple their pledges
  • fully implement them
  • otherwise we are all toast, literally and figuratively
Two years.

This, by the way, will be the issue for the 2020 presidential election: global warming.

Most ridiculous graphic I've seen in years.

The "title": eight major economies ... can anyone name any major economy other than these eight?
  • China: and this is before China starts building those hundreds of new coal plants.
  • US
  • EU
  • India
  • Russia
  • Japan
  • Brazil
  • Indonesia
Oh, I guess there's South Korea, and OPEC.

Largest Economies In The World

Link here, November 4, 2019:
In 2018, China was the world's largest economy for the fourth year in a row. It produced $25.3 trillion in economic output according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund. It contributed 19% of the world's total gross domestic product of $135.2 trillion.
The European Union was in second place, generating $22 trillion. Together, China and the EU generate 35% of the world's economic output.
The United States remained in third place, producing $20.5 trillion. The world's three largest economies combined produced 50% of the world's total economy.
No other economy is even close to any of these three. The fourth-largest economy was India, producing $10.4 trillion. Japan was fifth, at $5.6 trillion. Germany, the strongest country in the EU, produced $4.4 trillion.
These measurements use purchasing power parity to account for exchange rate changes over time. It also adjusts for government rate manipulation.

WTI Drops 4.6% -- Fourteen Permits Renewed -- November 29, 2019

Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:

Active Rigs5766553964

The only item on today's daily activity report was fourteen permit renewals:
  • CLR (5): one Nuthatch permit and one Tanager permit, both in Divide County; two Thronson permits and one Sorenson permit, all three in Mountrail County
  • Petro-Hunt (3): two Hagen permits and one Sabrosky permit, all in Billings County
  • NP (2): two Audrey permits in Golden Valley permit
  • EOG: one Clarks Creek permit in McKenzie County
  • Oasis: one Borden Federal permit in Williams County
  • Enerplus: one Hall permit in McKenzie County
  • RimRock: one Two Shields Butte in Dunn County

Another Nice CLR Carus Well To Be Reported Today -- November 29, 2019

This page will not be updated. The CLR Carus wells are tracked here

The well:
  • 35587, conf, CLR, Carus 12-28HSL1, Cedar Coulee, another nice Carus well;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

A Huge MRO Tommerdahl Well To Be Reported Today -- November 29, 2019

Off the confidential list today, this huge well:
  • 35332, conf, MRO, Tommerdahl USA 11-2H, Reunion Bay,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Neighboring wells, from the south:
  • 22455, 1,780, MRO, Mylo Wolding 24-11H, ReunionBay, t6/12; cum 342K 8/19; off line 8/19; remains off line 10/19;
  • 18491, SI/NC, MRO, Mylo Monitor 1, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
Farther east, running north to south:
  • 21199, 1,764, MRO, Lucky One 21-2TFH, Reunion Bay, t6/12; cum 299K 8/19; offline 5/19; with some intermittent production, 6/19 ,7/19; remains off line 10/19;
  • 21457, 1,829, MRO, Lucky One 21-2H, Reunion Bay, t6/12; cum 298K 6/19; offline 6/19; remains off line 10/19;
Further east, running south to north:
  • 25099, 1,274, MRO, Jenson 34-11TFH, Reunion Bay, t8/13; cum 213K 10/19; production dropping quickly; minimal production, 9/19 - 10/19;
Graphics: pending

Shell -- EVs -- PG&E -- And All That Jazz -- November 29, 2019

Shell: thinking about side the box -- getting ready for a carbon-free world (LOL):
Faced with this conundrum, Shell has promised to halve its net carbon footprint by 2050 from the 2016 level. It has gradually moved away from oil toward lower-carbon gas and has been adding electricity to its product mix. It is also applying its trading and retailing expertise to products other than oil and gas. With 45,000 stores—more than Starbucks or McDonalds—Shell serves 30 million customers daily.

In recent years, the company also has invested an average of between $1 billion and $2 billion annually on small-scale experiments in new energy sources including power, biofuels, solar, wind, batteries and hydrogen. Most don’t make a profit, but don’t cost too much relative to the more than $20 billion a year that Shell generates in free cash flow.

The experiments give the company information about new markets and the opportunity to shape customer expectations and regulations as they develop. More speculatively, they could also provide a first mover advantage in lower-carbon businesses that might eventually deliver the big profits oil and gas investors expect.
But what I haven't seen yet, is even one EV charging station at Shell stations. What am I missing? So, let's check. Maybe I am missing something. There it is, over at
Shell is excited to launch our electric vehicle program that will advance adoption of electric vehicles in California through the deployment of EV charging infrastructure at commercial, retail, public and government locations as well as multi-unit residential dwellings.

Shell is supporting the transition to electric vehicles by looking at how EV charging can be successfully integrated to the power grid. We have developed a new EV smart charging service called Shell RechargePlus that allows the charging of vehicles to be shifted to times when it would be most beneficial for the power grid and that will provide cost advantages for customers.

This new service is available to you when you select Shell as your service provider within the Pacific Gas and Electric Company EV Charge Network Program when you participate under the “EV Charge Owner” option.
Y'all know PGE -- the company that is blamed for starting some of worth wildfires in California's history.

Snopes To Fact Check?

I thought this was a joke -- that Newsweek was going to publish a story reporting that President Trump would be golfing over Thanksgiving.

But, according to talk radio here in Texas, Newsweek had the story all written -- that President Trump had spent the Thanksgiving holiday golfing in Mar-a-Lago, holding the story until the "facts, dates, specifics" were filled in.

Apparently the "news" outlet had to scramble to write the "real" story once it was learned that he was in Afghanistan -- the first trip he has ever made to Afghanistan. 

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- November 29, 2019

Top retail picks for holiday season: Target, Five Below, and TJX Maxx parent -- Barron's. The analyst considers all three discounters. I'm not so sure about Target. Yes, compared to Best Buy and Tiffany, Target is a discounter, but I've always looked at Target as a "full-price discounter." LOL.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Apple AirPods Pro: without question, one of the best tech products ever to hit the market. Bar none. Stories everywhere. Here's two:
  • Apple AirPods will be the star of Black Friday, analyst says -- Barron's
  • Airpods Pro demand is so strong that Apple is reportedly doubling production -- MacRumors.
Reviews; generally speaking, Apple products get "bad / snarky" reviews on social media. For the AirPods Pro I'm not seeing many negative articles. Some folks are surprised people are willing to spend $249 for ear buds. I think these folks are unaware how much money is "really out there."

Pork: swine flu taking huge toll on China demand.

The Soccer Page

Olivia is now out in Los Angeles for a second soccer tournament this Thanksgiving week.

She just completed a four-day natioanl tournament in Miami, FL, her team finishing first in their division. This was the first half of this national tournament. The second half, another four-day tournament will be held in Las Vegas in March, 2020. In this tournament, she is a "guest player" playing on a girls team her own age. Finishing first in their division, the team will get a great seed going into the second half.

Last night she arrived in Los Angeles about midnight to join her regular team for a three-day national tournament. On this team she is playing "up." She is one year younger than the rest of her team.

Olivia and her mother spent Thanksgiving day in Louisville, KY, with the rest of the family and their other grandparents. So, it was DFW to Miami, to Louisville, to Los Angeles, returning to DFW Sunday night. And yes, she does have "frequent flyer" miles. LOL.

I will probably have to buy some carbon offsets to pay for all the CO2 emissions. Or maybe just plant a real Christmas tree this year.

WTI Drops 2.4%; Eight Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today, Yesterday -- November 29, 2019

Peak oil? What peak oil? US September crude oil production at 12.463 million bopd vs 12.397 (revised up from 12.365) million bopd in August; about a half-percent increase month-over-month, but September numbers will probably be revised up also. STEO report forecast 12.59 million bopd for September. So, actual production came in at a bit less than projected.

Also from twitter earlier today:

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5766553964

Wells coming off the confidential list yesterday and today -- Friday, November 29, 2019: 102 for the month; 203 for the quarter:
  • 36316, conf, Petroshale, Anderson North 1MBH, Croff,
  • 36135, conf, XTO, Sorkness state Federal 34X-36G, Sorkness, 
  • 35637, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HY, Mandaree,
  • 35332, conf, MRO, Tommerdahl USA 11-2H, Reunion Bay, see link here;
  • 30108, conf, Oasis, Jensen 5501 43-7 6B, Missouri Ridge; a nice well;
Thursday, November 28, 2019: 97 for the month; 198 for the quarter:
  • 36136, conf, XTO, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36C, Sorkness, 
  • 35638, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HC, Mandaree,
  • 35587, conf, CLR, Carus 12-28HSL1, Cedar Coulee, another nice Carus well; see link here;
RBN Energy: Just because it worked, it doesn't mean you were right. My dad always said it was better to be lucky than smart.
In 2019, there has been a significant shift in crude oil and natural gas markets. Prices have remained stubbornly low, even when faced with the risk of significant turmoil like the Saudi drone attacks. Investors are far less forgiving, and energy-related equity values continue to lag most other sectors, despite most companies returning more of their earnings to shareholders. Oil and gas producers are focused on their sweetest of sweet spots, wringing every crumb of financial return from their investments. The risk-return equation has changed. All this makes now a good time to examine the strategies and tactics necessary for survival in this challenging phase of the Shale Era. That is especially true for the players who seem to be doing everything right, because some of the worst management mistakes can occur when performance is good.

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Whiting Koala Well WIth Jump In Production -- November 28, 2019

On a 6-well pad next to an older 3-well pad; no recent activity noted. 

The well:
  • 32549, 4,214, Whiting, Koala 31-25-2H, Poe, t8/17; cum 213K 9/19;
Look at recent production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare