Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Los Angelinos Proposing $35 Million Overpass For Mountain Lions -- September 2, 2015


October 25, 2020: project is still "on." 

Original Post 

Los Angelinos are proposing to build a $35 million wildlife bridge over Interstate 101 for mountain lions to cross over. Where would they get the money? From "public coffers." Taxpayers. LOL.

Artist's rendering of proposed mountain lion overpass:

To ensure the mountain lions use this overpass, the city will hire Tyrolian shepherds to stage their sheep on either side of the overpass. Both white and black sheep will be staged and integrated at both sheep-holding areas. Animal activists have also been assured that no "live" sheep will actually be injured in this endeavor. Max's Deli over on Figueroa Street will get the contract to place mutton chops on the overpass; the meat will be imported from Australia. St Bernards will protect the "live" sheep.

PETA will provide 24/7 oversight of the overpass / underpass. The Tyrolian shepherd will be bonded due to the litigious nature of Californians. The overpass will meet or exceed California earthquake standards.

Construction will result in 350 jobs for about 18 months. Al Gore, the inventor of wildlife overpasses, will be the on-site consultant-advisor and will represent the mountain lions. Once the overpass is completed, approximately twenty full-time employees will manage the project, including one more PETA observer than necessary; two Tyrolian shepherds; one St Bernard handler; two "overpass park rangers" who will remove sheep droppings and mountain lion waste; and one mutton chop courier. Wildlife specialists will be posted at regular intervals on both sides of the freeway leading up to the overpass to ensure no humans accidentally wander into the protected area.

This is why I remain inappropriately optimistic about the future of the United States. We apparently have a) no shortage of money; and, b) no shortage of really, really good ideas.

Great Article On America's Super-Abundance Of Oil -- Investor's Business Daily -- September 2, 2015

This article is a keeper; one that needs to be archived. This should put the final nail in Mr M King Hubbert's coffin. From wiki:
Hubbert's Peak was thought to have been achieved in the United States contiguous 48 states (that is, excluding Alaska) in the early 1970s. Oil production peaked at 10,200,000 barrels per day (1,620,000 m3/d) and then declined for several years since.
Yet, recent advances in extraction technology and optimistic production forecasts has led to widespread skepticism of Hubbert's theory.  However, the 1970s peak has not been reached, despite assertions to the contrary.
I wonder if wiki will ever have to update that entry.

Oil production peaked at 10,200,000 barrels per day (1,620,000 m3/d) and then declined for several years since. According to this link at Investor's Business Daily,
Last month the Energy Department reported that the U.S. hit an energy milestone: We produced 9.52 million barrels a day. That was very close to the highest output level in recorded history. So much for running out.
  • Flashback, 2011: "The United States of America cannot afford to bet our long-term prosperity, our long-term security on a resource that will eventually run out, and even before it runs out will get more and more expensive to extract from the ground." -- President Barack Obama.
  • Flashback, 1980: Jimmy Carter declared that by 2000 we'd be nearly out of oil — running on empty.
  • Flashback to the era of The Great Gatsby, before WWI: Famously in the 1920s, the Interior Department projected less than a few decades' worth of recoverable oil in the country.
There's so much oil, the price of oil has plummeted below $40, and adjusted for inflation ... well, it's pretty cheap.

Anyway, enough of that. You get the picture.


With that as backdrop, apparently President Obama, a lame duck president, will be meeting with the new king of Saudi Arabia sometime this week or next. I hope he enjoys couscous because that's probably the best he will get out of the meeting.

Saudis have already met with Putin, last July, in Moscow. The chess game continues.

Unfettered, the Bakken was projected to produce 2 million bopd sometime later this year or next. Production would have gone on through 2100 A.D. Now at 1 million bopd, the reservoir will last that much longer, but most likely Bakken production will flatline at 750,000 bopd if the Saudis maintain their production. (I doubt they will, but with all the other oil being produced, my hunch is that Bakken will plateau at 750,000 bopd before it's all over.)

The New 53-Mile Extended Reach Chevrolet Volt Is Here -- Well, It's Almost Here -- It's On Its Way To Canada (Really?) And California; EV Sales Plummet 27% Year-Over-Year -- September 2, 2015

(Memo to self: is "plum-et" spelled with one "em" or two "em"s?)

Wow, can you believe it! The 2016 Chevrolet Volts are finally here. The second generation, 53-mile extended range Chevy Volts are now on their way to California and Canada. (You might have to scroll to the bottom of that link to find that information).

[It used to go 60 miles on a single charge. See below.]

Well, that's not quite accurate. The 2016 Chevy Volt won't be in "full, national production mode until November."

But wow, 53-mile extended range. 

Back on October 27, 2013 -- almost two years ago, Chevrolet was telling us the Chevrolet Volt could run up to 96 miles on batteries. The link is here if you don't believe me. That story ran for months. And it was never corrected. The headline said 96 miles; the story was 96 kilometers -- a huge, huge difference. Ninety-six kilometers is ... 57.6 miles.

So, this debacle has gone from bad to worse. First, the Chevrolet headline said the first generation Volt could run 96 miles on a single charge, when in fact, that was a misprint (intentional?) -- the first generation Volt could only get 96 kilometers on a single charge, which is about 60 miles.

Now, two years later, they have an extended reach, new and improved Chevrolet that can go ... 53 miles on a single charge.

Are we making progress here? Like the government's revised GDP figures, I guess, pick a number, any number: 53, 60, 96. What does it matter anyway?

Speaking of progress, or lack of progress, buried deep in that link (this one) EV sales for August, 2015, this past month, were .... drum roll ... 27% below sales one year ago.

The very last sentence in that story: "The Chevrolet Volt's strongest sales year was in 2012."

Really? Three years ago.

Thank goodness the 2016, extended reach, 53-mile range new and improved Chevrolet Volt is finally here.

I'm holding out for a Tesla.

For The Archives: California's Dependency On Domestic Oil And Gas Industry -- September 2, 2015

For the archives. The Breitbart article has to do with fracking and California's drought. It's really a two-piece article. The first half of the article is on the Monterey Shale formation; the second half is one California's dependency on oil.

I linked this article earlier with the emphasis on Monterey Shale. This time, the stand-alone post has do with California's dependency on the oil and gas industry. If I was unaware of this, I assume most Californians were unaware of it, and certainly all of those "Jaywalkers" on Jay Leno's late night show are unaware of it.

Some very interesting data points:
The Sacramento Bee reported that up to half of the hundreds of new wells drilled each year in the San Joaquin Valley are being “fracked,” according to a study required by the 2013 law regulating the practice. [By the way, note the spelling of "fracked" by the Sacramento Bee.]
Zack Malitz of the environmental group Credo complained to Reuters: “Governor Brown is forcing ordinary Californians to shoulder the burden of the drought by cutting their personal water use while giving the oil industry a continuing license to break the law and poison our water.”
He added, “Fracking and toxic injection wells may not be the largest uses of water in California, but they are undoubtedly some of the stupidest.”
Gov. Brown has tried to sound high-minded about water use, but the real issue is that California’s State Budget is highly reliant on the oil industry revenues. 
The blog calculated that the oil and gas industry contributed $21.55 billion to the state’s public fiscus. That amounts to over twice the salary compensation for state employees last year. If Brown cuts oil industry water, he will have to fire state workers.
Still, crude oil production in California has fallen for 27 of the last 30 years, from about 1.15 million to 566,000 barrels per day. California used to be self-sufficient, but now imports 62.8 percent of the petroleum it uses.
Last year, California spent about $32 billion to import 400 million oil barrels of oil.
The oil and gas industry contributes over $20 billion to the state coffers. You know that intermittent energy (wind, solar) takes money away from state coffers through tax breaks, subsidies, and grants.

Five (5) New Permits, BR Reports Four High-IP Wells -- North Dakota -- September 2, 2015

Active rigs:

Active Rigs75194185192198

Four (4) wells coming off confidential list Thursday:
  • 29208, 2,533, MRO, Lun USA 11-14H, Reunion Bay, t6/15; cum 46K 7/15 (45 days);
  • 29611, SI/NC, Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 8TFH, Banks, no production data,
  • 30469, SI/NC, EOG, Shell 22-2819H, Parshall, no production data,
  • 30604, drl/NC, SM Energy, L. Johnson 4-30HS, no production data,
Five (5) producing wells completed:
  • 29425, 1,608, BR, Kings Canyon 5-8-34UTFH, Camel Butte, 4 sections, t7/15; cum 12K 9 days;
  • 29431, 1,848, BR, Kings Canyon 6-1-27MBH, Camel Butte, 4 sections, t7/15; cum 14K 9 days;
  • 29433, 1,464, BR, Kings Canyon 4-1-27MTFH, Camel Butte, 4 sections, t7/15; cum 12K 9 days;
  • 29466, 2,124, BR, Kings Canyon 7-8-34MBH, Camel Butte, 4 sections, t7/15; cum 14K 9 days;
  • 30358, 85, Enduro Operating, MRPSU 19-33-H1, Mouse River Park, a Madison well, t8/15; cum --
Five (5) new permits --
  • Operators: Statoil (4), Whiting
  • Fields: Banks, Bell (Stark)
  • Comments:
Whiting renews three permits: two Koppinger permits and one Cymbaluk permit, all in Stark County.

OXY USA temporarily abandons #16989, a Meyer well, in Cunn County.

EOG temporarily abandons four fairly recent wells in Parshall oil field (#27391, #28401, #28726, #28727, and @28728), Mountrail County.

I Never Saw This Coming

Quick! Name the state with the highest poverty rate! California is #1, by far, using "alternative" Census Bureau statistics; #2 if one uses "traditional" methods to define poverty.

Traditional methods: New Mexico is #1 at 22%. California follows at 15%.
Alternative methods based on "realistic" parameters: California #1 at 23%. New Mexico at 16%.

I did not know this. Stumbled across it while reading about Monterey Shale on which Jerry Brown is basing California's economic future.

I bet if I ask my wife she will say Alabama or Mississippi, but certainly not California.

New Diesel Refinery For The Bakken? -- September 2, 2015

The Bismarck Tribune reports the following short stories:

A new refinery
  • Burke County Planning and Zoning board supports
  • Company: Ash, Inc
  • will process 20,000 bopd --> naphtha, diesel, butane/propane in equal amounts
  • where Truax Trayer coal mine once operated; south of Columbus, ND
  • construction: 350 workers; up to 2 years
  • annual operation: 80 people; annual payroll of slightly less than $5 million
  • no mention of EPA, state, federal regulatory status

Tioga LNG plant back on track
  • construction of Phase II continues
  • last month, construction stopped when city noted that the developer had not paid the $39K bilding permit fee
  • co-located with Hess gas plant
  • first phase began operations in October, 2014, at 10,000 gallons of LNG per day; will grow to nearly 85,000 gallons when complete
Details, details

Alexander Public School
  • $15 million project has started 
Motels/Hotels In Williston

The Dickinson Press is reporting status of hotel/motel vacancy in Williston. At 55% is it now on par with Dickinson and Minot. Don sent me the link; I responded:
From the article: "The city's hotel demand, which reached an apex of 88.2 percent in June 2012, is on par with Minot and Dickinson, two other North Dakota oil communities.
Williston has added 1,500 hotel rooms since the state's latest oil boom began in earnest five years ago, a step that has helped push the average daily hotel room rate in the city down to about $122 per night.
Hotel prices still trend higher than that average. Williston's Hampton Inn, a division of Hilton Worldwide, charges $286 per night."
My comments: But it has to be concerning. It is very likely we could see some consolidation; two motels/hotels merging in some way; keeping one open, mothballing the other.
They might be able to close completely surrounding man-camps and move those folks to motels/hotels.
A long time I posted that "quality" of hotels/motels are not factored in to a story like this. There are many, many hotels/motels that should be condemned in Williston. I assume they will be the first to close. Such hotels/motels represent a small percentage, I assume, but it wouldn't take many to close to make a difference.
Hope Springs Eternal

Breitbart suggests California is on the cusp of an oil fracking boom that will rival North Dakota, but it depends on Biblical proportions of heavenly water from El Niño. The story was published June 17, 2015, but either I did not see it or I forget reading it. The story is here.
California may be on the cusp of an oil fracking boom along its 1,750-square-mile Monterrey Shale Formation, which is potentially the richest shale oil reserve in the United States.
Earthquakes have disturbed the layers of shale rock that run under most of the western state, making fracking more challenging than in a region like North Dakota. But when the next cyclical El Niño brings the huge amounts of water necessary for fracking, California could experience an economic boom similar to North Dakota’s oil rush.
Breitbart News recently noted that “California Is Greece, but with Capital Gains.”
A state with terrific beauty and fabulous tech entrepreneurs, [California] mimics Greece as a failed experiment in liberalism that has the highest poverty rate in the U.S. at 23.4 percent. California is grossly insolvent over the long term with about $500 billion in debt, but remains alive – on life support – as long as the $12 billion of extra capital gains taxes hit each year.
In response to the state’s three-year drought, Gov. Jerry Brown signed an executive order implementing California’s first-ever mandatory water restrictions, which require cities and towns to cut their water usage by 25 percent. In doing so, he specifically exempted oil company water use for fracking. Brown hopes that California can be rescued by a fracking economic renaissance, just like the one that lifted North Dakota from the bottom fifth to the second-richest state by per-capita GDP in just one decade.
The article re-tells North Dakota's remarkable boom.

Much more at the link about Jerry Brown, a rock, and a hard place.

Saudi Production, Consumption, Export -- June, 2015, Data

Previously posted but needs a stand-alone post.

Update on Saudi Arabia's production / export -- June, 2015, data
Saudi Arabia's crude exports recovered to 7.365 million b/d in June after falling to 6.935 million b/d in May.
Apart from the dip in May, the kingdom's exports have been above the 7 million b/d level since the beginning of this year.
And, following Riyadh's refusal to cut output late last year as oil prices plunged, Saudi production has held above 10 million b/d since March, climbing to 10.564 million b/d in June.
The volume of crude processed in Saudi refineries inside the kingdom fell to 2.099 million b/d in June from 2.423 million b/d in May while the volume of crude burned directly in the kingdom's power plants rose to 894,000 b/d from 677,000 b/d.
Domestic use:
Saudi Arabia's high use of crude oil in power generation, especially during the searing summer heat when demand for air conditioning soars, is well known.

The June volume represented 8.5% of Saudi crude production. But it's not just in Saudi Arabia that direct-burn volumes have been rising.

Iraq's use of crude to generate electricity has climbed sharply over the past two years, with a record volume of 190,000 b/d -- 5.3% of its total official production -- burned in power plants in June.

The direct-burn volume first climbed above 100,000 b/d in July 2013, soaring to 133,000 b/d from 89,000 b/d the previous month.
I'm still not particularly impressed with "10.6 million bopd" production coming out of Saudi Arabia.  I've said this many, many times; see previous posts for background.

Poll -- Straight Out Of Left Field -- September 2, 2015

The three most recent polls are completed; results posted elsewhere (tag: Poll).

This next poll is way out in left field, as they used to say. But there is a reason I'm posting it.

In the current pricing AND political environment, should Bakken operators simply suspend all fracking operations until next summer?

Jack Kemp's Weekly Data Has Been Posted

Over at twitter; great graphics. I won't re-post/link. Easy to follow over at Twitter.

Several data points:
  • US gasoline consumption edged down for the 4th week as driving season winds down, but still almost 500,000 bopd greater than 2014;
  • US gasoline stocks still high but closer to 5-year average; 4 million bbls over 2014; 8 million bbls over 10-year seasonal average;
  • US gasoline stocks almost exactly (but slightly below 10-year average) in line with 22.4 days worth of consumption;
  • propane stocks hit another record;
  • California finally getting some relief: west coast refinery throughout well above average at 150,000 bopd above 2014-level; and,
  • California finally getting some relief: west coast gasoline stocks rise almost 1 million bbls; reverse decline from the previous week; still 1.5 million bbls below 10-year average.
For The Granddaughters

Sometimes it is amazing how things turn out. I have pretty much gotten through my Santa Fe Railroad; Santa Fe, New Mexico; Grand Canyon; Fred Harvey girls; Mary Colter phase. I have plans to return to Santa Fe next summer; very excited to return after reading books on all the above in the past few weeks. I am ready to move on. But ... not so fast.

Coincidentally, this past weekend my son-in-law / daughter flew to Santa Fe, New Mexico, to attend a wedding. My daughter brought back a gift for me: softcover, Peggy Pond Church's The House at Otowi Bridge: The Story of Edith Warner and Los Alamos, c. 1959, and later.

It's a small book; I assume I could read it in one evening. But the story and the writing is so good that I will read a bit each day, probably no more than three to six pages, not even a whole chapter, so that I can make it last.

Interestingly enough -- and that's why I started this note out as "it is sometimes amazing how things turn out." I might not have enjoyed this book as much had I not just been through my Santa Fe phase. This little biography is almost like a small piece of chocolate dessert following a large meal.

It is "fun" to see the little details that I would have missed had I had not read the other books first. For example, early on in the book it helped -- or at least made the story that much more enjoyable -- to know the relationship between the Santa Fe railroad, the city of Santa Fe, and the town of Lamy. Next summer I will get to see for myself that relationship. I can hardly wait.

Ms Heitkamp Can Vote "No" On Iran Plan -- September 2, 2015; Update: No Friend Of Bakken Oil


September 3, 2015: Ms Heitkamp will support President Obama; give Iran the bomb. 

Original Post
The AP is reporting:
Sen. Barbara Mikulski of Maryland became the crucial 34th vote Wednesday morning, declaring the agreement is the best way to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Results of the poll:
  • she will support Obama, as a loyal Democrat, supersedes her NoDak roots: 55%
  • she will support the Bakken: 23%
  • she will vote "present": 19%
  • won't vote: 3%

Fifteen Least Friendly Cities In The World To Visit -- The (London) Telegraph; September 2, 2015


Later, 2:27 p.m. Central Time: not to be out-done, The (London) Mail  has the list of US cities -- just US cities -- that seem to hate tourists. Arlington, TX, leads the list. It was interesting how this list (other than Arlington, TX) seems to corroborate the international findings in The (London) Telegraph story below.  

Among the cities that are least loved by tourists, several show up on both lists: NYC, Boston, Los Angeles, and Los Vegas, Nevada. It was interesting to see Boston and Las Vegas end up on both lists.  
Among US cities, Chicago was the most welcoming (hey, didn't I just say that below) followed by Atlanta (also mentioned by me below). Philadelphia and Miami came next, both of which were on the list of cities disliked by British travelers. Then came Portland, Oregon, and Seattle, WA. Folks in Washington, DC, apparently like US tourists but not British tourists. 

Original Post
This is right up my alley, as they say: a list of the fifteen most unfriendly cities in the world to visit.

This was a good time to post the "survey." The summer travel season is just ending and world travelers have their most recent visits still fresh in their memories. 

However, note: the list was compiled in a British publication, The (London) Telegraph and there might be a bit of bias. It was based on a readers' poll, apparently. In reverse order, the world's least friendly cities:
15: Boston
14: Frankfurt, Germany
13: Washington, DC
12: Miami, FL
11: Beijing, China
10: Cannes, France
9: Las Vegas, Nevada
8: Baltimore, MD
7: Philadelphia, PA
6: New York City, NY
5: Los Angeles, CA
4: Marseille, France
3: St Petersburg, Russia
2: Atlantic City, New Jersey
1: Moscow, Russia
I haven't read the reasons yet, but my two cents worth follows.

1. Obviously The Telegraph did not include destinations off the beaten path. For example, I doubt most cities in Russia or China or or any cities in Africa or the Mideast were even considered. Tripoli? Baghdad? Riyadh? Kampala? It looks like South America was also not considered. Caracas? Brasilia? So having said that, I have to assume the following cities were considered and did NOT get into the top 15 of least friendly cities:
  • Rome, Venice, Florence; Italy
  • Amsterdam, Brugge, Luxembourg City; the Low Countries
  • Bern, Basel, Zurich; Switzerland
  • Edinburgh, Glasgow; Scotland
  • York, Leeds, Cambridge, Oxford; England
  • Belfast, Dublin; Island of Ireland
  • Lisbon, Portugal (off the beaten path?)
  • Madrid, Barcelona; Spain
  • Tokyo, Japan
  • Sydney, Australia
  • Athens, Greece 
  • Shanghai, Hong Kong, Chian
  • Quebec City, Toronto, Calgary, Canada
  • Chicago, San Francisco, Atlanta; US
2. Wow, The Telegraph really hates America (of the top fifteen, no less than nine were in the US).

3. I can't talk much about San Francisco; it's been a long time since I spent time there and it's changed a lot, I assume. Chicago, on the other hand: I was really, really surprised how friendly the folks were there, even downtown; and the Chicagoans really, really love their city.  I was happy to see Chicago not on the list -- mostly because it comes as a surprise.

4. I wonder if The Telegraph readers visited any cities in Texas (Houston, Dallas-Ft Worth, San Antonio)? If they did, I'm not a bit surprised to see none of these cities make the list. Even my wife is surprised how friendly everyone is down here. My wife is Hispanic-Japanese; more Hispanic than Japanese; had a bad experience in North Dakota --all three years that we lived there -- she was a professional working there and she felt folks thought she was part of the migrants working the fields; did not get served in local restaurant. Here in Texas, she has felt most welcome by the non-Hispanic community as well as the entire community.

5. I'm not a bit surprised Boston is on the list. If it had not been on the list, I would not have been surprised either. Boston is a hard city to understand. In the big scheme of things, of all the places I've lived (and I've lived in a lot of places) Boston seemed the most cliquish. If you weren't part of Boston, you weren't part of Boston, if you know what I mean. My impression is that Boston is more cliquish than New York City.

6. Some time ago I posited that what I find most amazing about the US: it really does not have any world-class cities. NYC perhaps was at one time, but outsiders' perception of NY politics, squalor, drugs, poverty, homelessness, prevent NYC from becoming considered a world-class city. The perceptions may be all wrong, but ... And if NYC is not a world class city, then nothing in the US can rise to that level. I've never been to all of them, but I would think the world class cities are: Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, London, and Paris. Maybe Berlin.

7. Perhaps more later. On my way to the library.

CLR Studying Fracking Results -- September 2, 2015

Sometime in the recent past, I posted a note about CLR studying completion (fracking) strategies. CLR reported a nice well in the Avoca oil field today with a typical number of frack stages but high amount of proppant -- about 6 million lbs.

Perhaps more to follow. 

The CLR well reported today:
  • 29366, 963, CLR, Rader 2-24H, 30 stages, 5.8 million lbs, t3/15; cum 61K 7/15; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

I don't see geologist's report yet.

Avoca Oil Field

Permits (starting with September, 2015).

Permits prior to August, 2015, posted in Original Post.


32872, loc, Statoil, Knoshaug 14-11 8H,
32871, loc, Statoil, Knoshaug 14-11 7TFH,
32870, loc, Statoil, Knoshaug 14-11 6H,
32869, loc, Statoil, Knoshaug 14-11 5TFH,
32868, loc, Statoil, Knoshaug 14-11 4H,
32867, loc, Statoil, Knoshaug 14-11 3TFH,
32866, loc, Statoil, Knoshaug 14-11 2TFH,


Original Post

The nice well that CLR (#29366 -- see below) reported today in the Avoca oil field reminded me that I had never posted a stand-alone post on the Avoca oil field.

The Avoca oil field is a very small field, 8 sections, that cannot get any bigger. It sits smack dab between the highly prolific Stockyard Creek to the east, and the nice Catwalk field to the west (and just west of of that is Todd and Williston, the heart of the Bakken, if not necessarily the very best spot in the Bakken. The Stockyard Creek is turning out to be one of the best fields in the Bakken, and Avoca is immediately to the west.

Stony Creek is to the north, and Crazy Man Creek is to the south.

Avoca has been fairly inactive, and almost "dead" compared to Stockyard Creek, with the exception of activity in the northeast sections. All sections are held by production.

These are the current wells and permits:
  • 23979, 2,852, Statoil, Rose 12-13-5TFH, t10/13; cum 142K 5/16;
  • 22840, 3,107, Statoil, Rose 12-13-3H, t10/13; cum 173K 5/16;
  • 23978, 3,810, Statoil, Rose 12-13 6H, t10/13; cum 183K 5/16;
  • 22841, 2,627, Statoil, Rose 12-13 4TFH, t10/13; cum 105K 5/16; only 18 days in 5/16;
  • 23972, 3,249, Statoil, State 36-1 4TFH, t8/13; cum 214K 5/16;
  • 23973, 2,995, Statoil, Rose 12-13 2TFH, t8/13; cum 156K 5/16; 
  • 23974, 3,997, Statoil, Rose 12-13 7H, t8/13; cum 317K 5/16;
  • 23397, 969, CLR, Collison 1-23H, t12/12; cum 172K 5/16;
  • 29367, 651, CLR, Rader 3-24H1, t3/15; cum 77K 5/16;
  • 29366, 963, CLR, Rader 2-24H, t3/15; cum 160K 5/16;
  • 21294, 591, CLR, Rader 154-100-24-25-1H, t8/12; cum 287K 5/16;
  • 19406, 3,761, Statoil, Knoshaug 14-11 1H, t1/11; cum 284K 5/16;
  • 9468, 60, Citation Oil, Etzel 1-23, Madison, t6/82; cum 106K 5/16;
  • 8646, 113, Citation Oil, Donahue 1-23, Madison, t12/81; cum 153K 5/16; 35 years and counting;
  • 8256, Galaxy Oil, SOC Minerals 1; multiple payzones, Red River (1,332, 5/81); Madison (16, 7/83); Bakken (2, 8/95); only the Madison is still active, cum 29K 5/16; Red River cum 19K; Bakken cum 2K;

Struggling To Find Good News -- September 2, 2015

Not many good news stories out there right now except that, I guess, the president has decided to open the Arctic to Big Oil and maritime shippers.

2Q15 productivity strongest in one-and-a-half years, along with a 3.7% GDP growth in 2Q15, we now have corroborating data that things are hunky-dory in America. The revisions really, really, really help:
The Labor Department on Wednesday revised productivity to show it rising at a 3.3 percent annual rate, the quickest since the fourth quarter of 2013, instead of the 1.3 percent pace reported last month. 
One can only wonder how much massaging the Labor Department had to do to revise from 1.3 percent to 3.3 percent. If that doesn't sound fishy, I don't know what does.  A revision from 1.3 percent to 3.3 percent? Call me ... skeptical.

Remember, the GDP was likewise revised upward from 2.3 percent to 3.7 percent. 

"Magic Numbers" 
< 200,000 new jobs = economic stagnation

US private sector added 190,000 jobs in August. These were the ADP private jobs data. The government will release the "more comprehensive" number on Friday which will include both private and public sector jobs.

I've long forgotten the "magic numbers." These numbers were posted near the beginning of the Obama presidency when we were deep in the recession and a gazillion dollars were being helicoptered over Wall Street to stimulate "the economy." I had a hunch that the long-accepted jobs criteria for economic growth would be changed over time, so I posted the "magic numbers" as they stood then and have never changed them, though I have commented on how others have changed them.

Here are the "magic numbers":
The Magic Numbers

First time claims, unemployment benefits: 400,000 (> 400,000: economic stagnation)
New jobs: 200,000 (< 200,000 new jobs: economic stagnation)
So, let's see how Reuters at the linked story interpret 190,000 new jobs in August:
U.S. private employers added 190,000 jobs in August, short of economists' expectations.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 201,000 jobs.
Economists polled by Reuters are looking for total U.S. employment to have grown by 220,000 jobs in August, a modest climb from July's 215,000 figure.
 It appears "total jobs" will beat the 200,000 threshhold for "economic growth."

Blame It On El Nino -- Wind Not Profitable -- BloombergBusiness -- September 2, 2015

Previously posted; important story, needs to be re-posted as a stand-alone post.

BloombergBusiness is reporting what the rest of us already know. Utilities aren't making money off wind. If it weren't for tax credits and state mandates, intermittent energy would have died years ago.
Power producers who invested billions in turbines are finding that making money off the wind can be as unpredictable as the energy source itself.
NextEra Energy Inc., NRG Yield Inc. and Duke Energy Corp. all said a lack of sufficiently windy days cut into second-quarter sales. And neither power generators nor forecasters seem to know exactly why.
“There was a definite trend with several utilities talking about weak wind resources,” said Shahriar Pourreza, a New York-based analyst for Guggenheim Partners LLC. “This isn’t something that has been major in the past so definitely a phenomena worth following to see if it’s sustainable or an anomaly.”
Weak wind resources. LOL. A lack of "sufficiently windy days." LOL.

Tax credits?
Tax credits for wind production are expected to more than double to $2.4 billion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, according to an August 2014 estimate, the latest available from Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation. Wind credits may reach $3.6 billion annually by the fiscal year ending in 2018, the committee reported.
Developers have been installing turbines in the gusty plains of the Midwest and Texas as well along mountain passes in California and other western states. Wind provided nearly 10 percent of electricity production in Texas and 7 percent in California last year.
 Blaming El Nino. My hunch is they were snookered by some fast-talking snake oil salesmen.

The Math Adds Up

In New England, the "cost" of wind:
Wind projects in New England receive such enormous payments for their generation, they will offer their output to the grid even when prices go negative.
Clearly, when low or negative pricing occurs, the best course for the electric power providers is to reduce the production of energy. That's common sense, unless the power producer can be paid handsomely for products attached to their output, " the enhancers."
Real time wholesale prices in New England averaged $40 per megawatt/hour for the last quarter of 2014.
Wind power entering the grid normally is a "price taker"( they would take the price other generators offered the market ), therefore they would receive, on average, $40 per megawatt/hour delivered. They also would receive $62 per megawatt/hour for the renewable energy credit entitled to them by State Government Renewable Portfolio Standard Programs. They also receive $35 per megawatt/hour entitled them through a federal government program named the Production Tax Credit.
Some wind plants also receive about $8 per megawatt/hour for "capacity payments," meaning they cash in for the annual promise to "be there" three years in the future.
Normally, wind doesn't affect the wholesale real time price of electricity, but, because of the ancillary products( " the enhancers" ), which are outside the wholesale energy market ( REC, PTC, capacity guarantee ), the retail, customer price absorbs these payments in the monthly bills. That's a $145 per megawatt/hour gift from the taxpayers and ratepayers. 
Let's break that down:
  • wholesale prices in New England, per MWH: $40
  • State program, renewable energy credit, from the state, per MWH: $62
  • Federal government, Production Tax Credit (PTC), per MWH: $35
  • Capacity payments, per MWH: $8

Total: $145/MWH for wind energy; real time wholesale prices in New England averaged $40/MWH. What's not to like.

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Active rigs:

Active Rigs76194185192198

RBN Energy: update on propane supply growth -- near largest centers of demand. (Archived.)

Over the past two years, propane production has grown like crazy, and in several past blogs we’ve discussed the impact of those increased supplies on exports.  That has been a very big deal for propane markets. But an equally significant development is the location of that production growth.  Because much of the new propane supply is right next door to the two largest propane markets in the U.S. – the Northeast and the Midwest.  Considering what happened to the propane market during the Polar Vortex winter of 2013-14 (shortages and price spikes), the importance of production growth near to demand cannot be overstated.  It is very good news, both for the market in general and propane consumers in particular.  Today we start a new series examining what has happened to propane supply and what it means to propane markets.

This blog and others to come in the series are based on an analysis recently completed by RBN for the Propane Education and Research Council (PERC).  PERC is a unique organization, authorized by Congress in 1996 with the passage of the Propane Education and Research Act.  PERC’s mission is to promote the safe and efficient use of propane, particularly the “odorized” variety used in residential, commercial, agricultural and transportation markets. A few months back PERC engaged RBN to assess market developments that could impact the prospects of disruptions similar to the one that occurred in the winter of 2013-14, and to suggest actions that could alleviate the risk of such market turmoil. That project was completed in August and with the permission of PERC, this blog series summarizes some of RBN’s analysis and conclusions.