Monday, December 16, 2024

Rambling -- Monday Night -- December 16, 2024

Locator: 44472ARCHIVES.

It's definitely a "Gerry Rafferty" kind of night. 

Wind, rain, Scottish night here in north Texas. Reminds me of north Yorkshire, specifically Pateley Bridge and River Nidd. Pitch black, drizzly, somewhat uncomfortable, skies covered with stars and me feeling -- literally feeling -- my way along the river between Summerbridge and Pateley Bridge. 

Wow, what memories. Link here.

The saxophone really makes the song.

When I was "deployed" to Menwith Hill Station, Yorkshire, England, some twenty years ago, this is where I often stayed. Heaven on earth many memories. Barnhill HG3 5DH was the postal code.

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US Equity Markets

One word: amazing.

Two words: animal spirits.

Six words: we're not in Kansas any more. 

Broadcom (AVGO): up 40.72% in five days.  NVDA up 163.58% in one year. And their gains are holding after hours tonight.

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Pardons

I see a headline that Trump would consider a pardon for the NYC mayor. I hope that happens, if necessary. It's probably a bridge too far for the president (Biden) but it would be appropriate -- if that's the right word -- for Trump to pardon the mayor. Frankly I'm getting tired of the press seemingly more concerned with peccadillos than with covering real problems. Other than making some folks feel good, did the Hunter (Biden) outcome really amount to anything to anyone? There's a reason Kash Patel wants to shut down the Hoover Building. 

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My Alma Mater: USC

Link here.

You can go your own way.


Wow, those were the good old days.

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Vikings Win Tonight.

NFC: Vikings, Lions, and Eagles atop the NFC. Wow. This is almost like the good ol' days.

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The Atlantic

Current issue. January, 2025. 

"The Fraudulent Science of Success" by Daniel Engber,a senior editor at The Atlantic.

Business schools are in the grips of a scandal that threatens to undermine their most influential research -- and the credibility of an entire field.

Remember these names: Francesca Gina, Juliana Schroeder, and Alison Wood Brooks. 

The article will probably be behind a paywall.

For anyone who teaches at a business school, the blog post was bad news. For Juliana Schroeder, it was catastrophic. She saw the allegations when they first went up, on a Saturday in early summer 2023. Schroeder teaches management and psychology at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business. One of her colleagues—­­a star professor at Harvard Business School named Francesca Gino—­had just been accused of academic fraud. The authors of the blog post, a small team of business-school researchers, had found discrepancies in four of Gino’s published papers, and they suggested that the scandal was much larger. “We believe that many more Gino-authored papers contain fake data,” the blog post said. “Perhaps dozens.”

The story was soon picked up by the mainstream press. Reporters reveled in the irony that Gino, who had made her name as an expert on the psychology of breaking rules, may herself have broken them. (“Harvard Scholar Who Studies Honesty Is Accused of Fabricating Findings,” a New York Times headline read.) Harvard Business School had quietly placed Gino on administrative leave just before the blog post appeared. The school had conducted its own investigation; its nearly 1,300-page internal report, which was made public only in the course of related legal proceedings, concluded that Gino “committed research misconduct intentionally, knowingly, or recklessly” in the four papers. (Gino has steadfastly denied any wrongdoing.)

Schroeder’s interest in the scandal was more personal. Gino was one of her most consistent and important research partners. Their names appear together on seven peer-reviewed articles, as well as 26 conference talks. If Gino were indeed a serial cheat, then all of that shared work—and a large swath of Schroeder’s CV—was now at risk. When a senior academic is accused of fraud, the reputations of her honest, less established colleagues may get dragged down too. “Just think how horrible it is,” Katy Milkman, another of Gino’s research partners and a tenured professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, told me. “It could ruin your life.”

Wiki's entry

Googling will provide more background.

The wiki entry on Juliana Schroeder is interesting for what is not being reported. 

Interestingly enough, there is no wiki entry for Alison Wood Brooks, who is apparently still at Harvard.

EOG Continues To Be Surprisingly Busy In The Bakken -- December 16, 2024

Locator: 44471B.

WTI: $70.66.

Active rigs: 36.

Three new permits, #41428 - #41430, inclusive:

  • Operator: EOG. It's interesting to see EOG all of a sudden quite busy in the Bakken.
  • Field: Spotted Horn (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
  • EOG has permits for three Bear Den wells, SESE 20-150-94, to be sited between 342 FSL and 247 FSL; and, between 361 FEL and 393 FEL.

Three permits renewed:

  • Enerplus: #32410 and #32411in Eagle (Dunn County) and #39511 in McGregory Buttes (Dunn County).

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 39568, 1,672, Prima Exploration, Elzy Lay 2H,
  • 39577, 2,092, Prima Exploration, Elzy Lay 1H,

Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- Manic Monday -- December 16, 2024

Locator: 44470CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

Is Canada next? Source -- December 16, 2024, 1:20 p.m. CST.

  • Deputy PM resigns.
  • Justin Trudeau suggesting he may resign.

Germany's government collapses. 

Consumer confidence: all-time record set after Trump elected president. As far back as 39 years, it's a record. It may be longer than that.

Softbank: to invest $100 billion in the US; 100,000 jobs; over four years. 

Biden's CHIPS Act: $289 billion but with strings attached. Much of it was tax credits.

Apple: eventually -- sooner than later -- all American airlines will use Apple's "Find My Lost Luggage." This is a no-brainer. Folks will be tracking their baggage every time they fly. Later, midday: AAPL up $2.26, up almost 1% today. One year, down 16%.

US automakers: Ford in the news today.  Later: F closed down 3.85%; down 40 cents; closed just under $10/share at $9.99. Down 7% in last five days. Down 16% in one year. Meanwhile, BRK-B up 26% in one year.

Same ol', same ol.' Not sticking around. See y'all later. 

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • Longer version here

Large Data Centers -- North Dakota -- December 16, 2024

Locator: 44469LDC.

Link here.


Requirements: uninterruptible power; affordable electricity costs; cooling.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- Manic Monday -- December 16, 2024

Locator: 44468CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC. 

Walmart:


WMT:

Dow: losing streak, seven days. Longest losing streak in many years, but all major US equity indices are in the green, pre-market. 

Personal investing: Sophia -- in no particular order -- MU, AAPL, TSM, NVDA, SGHD, SGHB, SGHG, LNG, GLW, EPD but new positions, all equal weight.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • Longer version here

History Doesn't Repeat, But It Often Rhymes -- December 16, 2024

Locator: 44467INVESTING.

Softbank CEO: to make a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago. Will commit to $100 billion in US investment. Link here. Trump 2.0 is tracked here.

CNBC: segment this morning -- Trump 2.0; CEOs meeting with Trump; the Trump-Musk relationship. The next four years are going to be incredible for media and media advertising. The economy? This could be 1929 all over again -- Trump presidency, assuming he doesn't leave office prematurely and assuming I have my dates correct -- both huge assumptions -- 2025 - 2028 and will usher in 2029. 

Manic Monday -- December 16, 2024

Locator: 44466B.

News: federal government to deploy "drone detection system" (DDS) over New York.

Now, isn't this interesting? What is one of the most serious military hardware national security issues right now? Drones. What do we need? A DDS. What would have happened had Biden announced this two years ago? No way would "they" let the Feds do that. So, how to expedite rolling out DDS? Get folks and state governments panic, demand that something be done. And, here we go. 

Palantir: by the way, name a company that is well-positioned to collect and mine all that data generated by a DDS. Name a company whose share price has just received an upgrade this morning? 

US equity: futures suggest a "green" open.  

Softbank CEO: to make a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago. Will commit to $100 billion in US investment. Link here. Trump 2.0 is tracked here.

SEC, Chairperson of the SEC Commission: Gary Gensler. Later: agrees to resign on January 20, 2024. Hangs on to the very last minute. Trump's nominee: Paul Atkins. Forbes. Also here.Wiki simply states he is married with three sons. In fact, his wife and one of his wife's two brothers are the only two grandchildren of one of the richest men in the US. Absolutely fascinating. They are each estimated to have a net worth greater than $1 billion. Trump is playing 3D chess.

Despite his career in the public eye, Atkins’ link to one of the wealthiest families in the Midwest has not been previously reported. His wife Sarah Humphreys Atkins, whom he married in 1990, is the only granddaughter of Tamko Building Products founder E.L. Craig. An entrepreneur who had started and sold several ventures including a boxing gym and frozen custard shop, Craig started the roofing business in 1944 at the age of 69 in an old streetcar barn in Joplin, Missouri. [Only granddaughter, but one of three grandchildren.]

CNBC: segment this morning -- Trump 2.0; CEOs meeting with Trump; the Trump-Musk relationship. The next four years are going to be incredible for media and media advertising. The economy? This could be 1929 all over again -- Trump presidency, assuming he doesn't leave office prematurely and assuming I have my dates correct -- both huge assumptions -- 2025 - 2028 and will usher in 2029.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.48.

Today's well of interest:

37585, conf, Enerplus, Yttrium 147-93-16A-21H, coming off confidential list. on Enerplus' "Heavy Metal Pad #1":

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20242450215307
9-20241793712116
8-20242592421238
7-20243418110006
6-2024209389579

Tuesday, December 17, 2024: 26 for the month; 129 for the quarter, 656 for the year

  • None.

Monday, December 16, 2024: 26 for the month; 129 for the quarter, 656 for the year

  • 40038, conf, Hess, BL-Hersel-156-95-0910H-1,
  • 38489, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 153-95-17B-16-3H,
  • 37585, conf, Enerplus, Yttrium 147-93-16A-21H,
  • 35512, conf, Enerplus, FB Clinton 148-94-29B-32-10B,

Sunday, December 15, 2024: 22 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 654 for the year

  • None.
Saturday, December 14, 2024: 22 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 654 for the year
  • None.

RBN Energy: US LNG at a standstill waiting out construction, regulatory, legal delays.

U.S. LNG was poised for a year of massive growth in 2024, with new terminals and expansions set to cause feedgas to rise and commercial success in the years following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine set to spur further LNG project development.

Instead, construction delays have pushed projects back and feedgas in the past three months has averaged about 500 MMcf/d less than the same period last year. Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s pause on non-free trade (FTA) export licenses, lengthy delays to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) authorization process and the resulting legal challenges to both have brought project development to a near-standstill. In today’s RBN blog, we look at current U.S. LNG feedgas demand and how construction delays have shifted expectations for the next few years. 

EVs, Coal, And LNG -- Monday, December 16, 2024

Locator: 44465COAL.

EVs: Trump to roll back regulations across the board that favor EVs. Stories everywhere this morning.

LNG: a history of sorts from the blog.

  • Calcasieu, #7
  • Plaquemines, #8

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China Coal

Coal, China -- hits all-time high for coal production, 2024 -- stories everywhere.

Coal, from Monday, February 27, 2023:

Coal:

  • energy transition is dead; we just don't know it yet -- Peter Zeihan;
  • China: link here.
    • the numbers are staggering
    • thumbing their nose at Kyoto, Paris, Biden, Kerry