Friday, February 3, 2017

Two Bakken Wells With Incredible Post-Shut-In-Jump In Production -- February 3, 2017

The Norfolk Wells
North Tobacco Garden

The usual disclaimer applies: in a long note like this, there will be factual and typographical errors. In addition, I may be seeing things that don't exist. If this is important to you, go to the source.

32036, 365, CLR, Norfolk 8-1H1, Three Forks, 36 stages, 8.8 million lbs, t10/16; cum 142K 6/19;
32035, 630, CLR, Norfolk 9-1H, middle Bakken, 37 stages, 8.8 million lbs, t10/16; cum 142K 6/19;
32034, 460, CLR, Norfolk 10-1H1, Three Forks, 54 stages, 9.3 million lbs, t10/16; cum 145K 6/19;
32033, 540, CLR, Norfolk 11-1H, middle Bakken, 57 stages, 9.8 million lbs, t10/16; cum 248K 6/19;
29000, 1,249, CLR, Norfolk 7-1H, middle Bakken, 40 stages, 4.6 million lbs, t5/15; cum 406K 6/19;
28999, 960, CLR, Norfolk 6-1H1, Three Forks, 30 stages, 4.4 million lbs, t5/15; cum 184K 6/19;
24508, 1,153, CLR, Norfolk 4-1H, middle Bakken, 41 stages, 8.1 million lbs, t6/14; cum 358K 6/19; (see production profile well down the page below)
24507, 679, CLR, Norfolk 5-1H, middle Bakken, 41 stages, 8.4 million lbs, t7/14; cum 177K 6/19;
23087, 395, CLR, Norfolk 3-1H, Three Forks, 30 stages, 2.8 million lbs, t12/12; cum 202K 6/19;
23086, 894, CLR, Norfolk 2-1H, middle Bakken, 30 stages, 2.8 million lbs, t12/12; cum 437K 6/19;
20676, 567, CLR, Norfolk 1-1H, middle Bakken, 30 stages, 2.6 million lbs, t8/11; cum 477K 6/19;

Original Post
 
We are being told that any well that is taken off for a significant period of time (for purposes of discussion, about 3 - 7 months) will show an increase in production when it is returned to production. Another example. 

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20161819362393489634823733109
BAKKEN11-20162912522123682096022183942312760
BAKKEN10-20162511695113151987315971135612410
BAKKEN9-201610013000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-20166553926445127912790
BAKKEN6-20163032773025243310877108770
BAKKEN5-20163136363811252410884108840
BAKKEN4-201630343538142526947694760
BAKKEN3-201631373734242622974597450
BAKKEN2-20162936683455243068976510387
BAKKEN1-20161825362382190337862996790
BAKKEN12-20152028203218175954444774670
BAKKEN11-201530407040572706733261851147
BAKKEN10-201519306429681820606148011260
BAKKEN9-20153051705343340575906670920
BAKKEN8-2015316055604239351046310018445
BAKKEN7-20152444154366304179387418520
BAKKEN6-20153060115782380911718117180
BAKKEN5-2015316214635454041046194111050
BAKKEN4-201516233219773579372437240
BAKKEN3-20152055095778257713817125671250
BAKKEN2-2015288748905440821905018250800
BAKKEN1-2015311080910691559625340219363404
BAKKEN12-20143110266102645368131311311516
BAKKEN11-201430948494095780173811736615
BAKKEN10-201429871985195759152531523617
BAKKEN9-20143013315136509488254952547124
BAKKEN8-20143112951132599273273992738217
BAKKEN7-20142813802129451280624227219232304
BAKKEN6-2014242521249161784601453269
BAKKEN5-201410150128000
BAKKEN4-201415151218027002938292612
BAKKEN3-2014313642389617167337730631
BAKKEN2-2014283259321515486177614928
BAKKEN1-2014313660356717717088705731
BAKKEN12-2013314161401719898001797031
BAKKEN11-2013303650344616826524649430
BAKKEN10-2013313898403119266878684731
BAKKEN9-20133036513602173459845880104
BAKKEN8-2013304139384731737038700929
BAKKEN7-2013151550182155727212026695
BAKKEN6-2013304405460516688253822231
BAKKEN5-2013315045480320999489947217
BAKKEN4-201330557057732336100659454611
BAKKEN3-201331586458212713103429388954
BAKKEN2-20132857565591315499149470444
BAKKEN1-2013316106625448041061410441173
BAKKEN12-20123172047660983313775137750
BAKKEN11-201212241919032203508350830
BAKKEN10-20123166546636226017753177530
BAKKEN9-20123075867696258422538225380
BAKKEN8-20123177867604224815325153250
BAKKEN7-20123188088782273018408184080
BAKKEN6-20123097319937263019633196330
BAKKEN5-2012311055310533256718990189900
BAKKEN4-2012301087710979261018985189850
BAKKEN3-2012311189611925291620821208210
BAKKEN2-2012291183511663286620009200090
BAKKEN1-2012311058910600281817755177550
BAKKEN12-2011311230712739352219971199710
BAKKEN11-2011301257612361347620845208450
BAKKEN10-20113190499118261712113121130
BAKKEN9-2011301944219068742134121326111510
BAKKEN8-20118329029983967525841801078

Just by taking this well off-line for a  month or two, one notes the huge jump in production.

A huge thank you to a reader. I was unable to find frack data for this well. A reader found the data for me and I updated the post. Thank you. As the reader noted, the completion data was at the file report (page 75; I did not look long enough or hard enough); but I re-checked FracFocus and, again, noted no data. (I last checked FracFocus on February 1, 2018.)

For the archives:
  • 20676, 567, CLR, Norfolk 1-1H, North Tobacco Garden, API 33-053-03555; 30 stages, 2.6 million lbs; t8/11; cum 412K 12/16; 
The graphic of this area:


*************************************************

500 Miles, Peter, Paul, and Mary

This is an incredibly important video. Anyone who doesn't believe in God after listening to Mary sing this solo is not listening. I'll talk more about it at a later date, but I'm too tired now; going to bed so I can get up early to see President Trump's early morning tweets.

Good luck to all.


*****************************************************

 Another example of post-shut-in-jump in production:
  • 24508, 1,153, CLR, Norfolk 4-1H, middle Bakken, 41 stages, 8.1 million lbs, t6/14; cum 272K 12/16
Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20162161546406491510740107400
BAKKEN11-20163017610178502151034745332131532
BAKKEN10-20163112890125303329129250292500
BAKKEN9-201611188116654926359213002292
BAKKEN8-20161500515150
BAKKEN7-20160000000
BAKKEN6-20163055245797397815078150753
BAKKEN5-2016287652744151241837817538840
BAKKEN4-20161942844407274210343103430
BAKKEN3-20163179648123483116469164690
BAKKEN2-20162971587019415612505125050
BAKKEN1-2016317761778847461324812331917
BAKKEN12-20151848385038293377437254489
BAKKEN11-2015287337743852381177511625150
BAKKEN10-20153173087024539111887118870
BAKKEN9-201527682469754730852561202405
BAKKEN8-2015318758910553951341213026386
BAKKEN7-2015318717823165031282211933889
BAKKEN6-20153068837016805310310103100
BAKKEN5-201531757974751120113340121401200
BAKKEN4-201517449141987530762176210
BAKKEN3-20152484809285153615360
BAKKEN2-2015251007310138450118609186090
BAKKEN1-2015311297812751548226201262010
BAKKEN12-2014311561516151598622295222950
BAKKEN11-2014301829617904713926372263720
BAKKEN10-2014311997619951805533518335180
BAKKEN9-201430915091534899140641402935
BAKKEN8-20143110900109705935174641744717
BAKKEN7-20143119732197099386348313481120
BAKKEN6-20142313065125941586919459130326427
BAKKEN5-2014100859000

WTI: $54.49 At The Close, Friday, February 3, 2017

US House: Votes To "Repeal" Obama Methane Emissions Rule -- February 3, 2017

Can't touch this:

U Can't Touch This, MC Hammer
From Rigzone:
US House repeals Obama rule on methane emissions from oil and gas operations; Senate expected to follow; Trump will sign
My hunch: American school kids are getting a huge education in how government works. Up front, in-your-face, we have an activist president who has distracted / attracted the mainstream media, while behind the scenes, the US House and US Senate just keep moving along with business.

More Obama rules to follow, including:
This is the first repeal of President Obama's policies that Congress is sending to President Trump’s desk,” said House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wisconsin, in a statement.
“Fittingly, it will bring relief to Americans hurt by years of overreach and over-regulation.
We are repealing the Department of Interior’s stream protection rule—a rule the Obama administration pushed through at the last minute that was designed to decimate coal country.”
Meanwhile, it's just a matter of time before the president makes it official: the US will be withdrawing from Paris climate accord, joining other countries, including Canada, which, if I remember correctly was the first country to withdraw -- some years ago.

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Oil Patch Workers Being Recalled To Work

From Rigzone:
Now that oil prices are stable and above $50 per barrel, the energy industry’s depleted workforce is being called back into the field – but there are far fewer candidates with an ear to the ground.
As many as 350,000 oilfield workers lost their jobs during the downturn, which stretched beyond two years in a much lower for much longer down cycle. But the U.S. rig count is on the upswing, led by a frenzy in the Permian Basin, and companies need bodies at the wells.
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Unintended Consequences
Politics 101

Pundits suggest President Trump was a "bit rash" in some of his tweets and actions in his first two weeks as president.

It should be noted that during much of this period he had the advice of only two "White House counselors," the wild and crazy Kellyanne Conway and Steve Bannon because the progs refused to confirm his cabinet nominees who, compared to KC and SB, were seasoned, middle-of-the-road, calm, deep-thinking men and women who might have tempered some of Trump's actions, and provided a counter-point to KC and SB.

But the progs refused to confirm his nominees, and Trump was talking to himself, KC and SB. What could possibly go wrong?

Once his nominees like Wilbur Ross, Rex Tillerson, and others are on board, one can expect a somewhat-different White House. Or not.

 ****************************
Unintended Consequences
Protesting 101

Dakota Access oil pipeline protesters who tried to set up a new camp on private land undermined the Standing Rock Sioux tribe's efforts to stop the $3.8 billion project, tribal Chairman Dave Archambault says.
Archambault in recent weeks has been pushing protesters to leave their flood-prone main encampment on federal land between the reservation and the pipeline route and asking that activism be spread around the U.S. He said efforts by some to establish a camp Wednesday on nearby higher ground "do not represent the tribe."
Authorities arrested 74 protesters, including American Indian activist Chase Iron Eyes, after they set up teepees Wednesday on land owned by Texas-based pipeline developer Energy Transfer Partners.
Protesters said they were peacefully assembling on land they believe rightfully belongs to American Indians. The Morton County Sheriff's Office initially reported 76 arrests but later said two were protesters accused of unrelated drug offenses.
The new camp site was west of the main encampment that for months has housed hundreds and sometimes thousands of people who support the tribe's position that the pipeline threatens their drinking water and Native American cultural sites. The pipeline would carry oil from North Dakota through the Dakotas and Iowa to a shipping point in Illinois. The route would go under Lake Oahe, a large reservoir along the Missouri River.
Energy Transfer Partners disputes the tribe's arguments and says the pipeline will be safe.
A few hundred people still remain in the main camp, which is being cleaned up this week in advance of spring flooding that could carry any remaining refuse into the Missouri River. Archambault in recent weeks has called for the camp to disband, and late Wednesday he urged people who have left to stay away.
"In these past few weeks at camp, I see no reflection of our earlier unity, and without unity we lose," he said.
Iron Eyes, who made an unsuccessful bid for Congress last fall, remained jailed Thursday and unavailable for comment, a spokesman said. Iron Eyes told The Associated Press last week that he and others feel a need to "keep up the pressure" because "right now the will of the public is being expressed by a president that does not represent the majority in this country."

Week 5: January 29, 2017 -- February 4, 2017

For the archives: Donald Trump has been president for two weeks.

I might come back to this later. A lot of important national and international news that was not noted in the links below, notably: ExxonMobil doubles down in the Permian

Bakken 2.0
Twenty-eight (28) permits renewed

Operations
Statoil's Skarston wells in Banks oil field all seem to be back on line
Two-month production record for Oasis?
Random look at post-shut-in-production jump in the Bakken
Another random look at post-shut-in-production jump in the Bakken
Another example of post-shut-in-production jump in the Bakken
Another example of post-shut-in-production jump in the Bakken
Huge jump in production after neighboring well, different formation fracked
Huge CLR well back on status
EOG reports a huge oil well in the Parshall oil field
CLR's Bridger - Bonneville wells -- getting ready for completion? 

Pipelines
Several posts regarding DAPL:

Fracking
Bakken101 - testing different completion methods
Re-completed QEP well with updated frack data 

Bakken economy
Update on $2 billion fertilizer plant planned for North Dakota

Miscellenaeous
Most under-reported story: drop in gasoline demand
North Dakota, South Dakota ranked high for raising a family
North Dakota ranked #1 for raising a family 

The End Of The Beginning Of The End Of The Beginning Of The End -- DAPL Update -- February 3, 2016

From The Bismarck Tribune:
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers issued notices on Friday to protesters, warning that corps-managed federal property adjacent to the Cannonball River would be closed on Feb. 22. In addition, the Bureau of Indian Affairs pledged its support in helping the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe in closing the protest camps within its reservation boundary.
Meanwhile, two days after an anti-Dakota Access Pipeline demonstration took place at Backwater Bridge, former Congressional candidate Chase Iron Eyes was charged on Friday with inciting a riot and trespass.
Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., lauded the federal government for its assistance.
Don't you just love politicians, always out in front? I could be wrong, but I think this is the first I've heard something from the senator on this issue.

*************************
The Sports Page

The Tiger Woods update.

After a 16-month layoff, he was expected to play four times in five weeks.

Last week: Farmers Insurance Open, Torrey Pines, missed the cut.

Today: Dubai Desert Classic (which he never, never, ever, ever misses): opening round 77 -- atrocious; withdraws, citing muscle spasm in lower back. 

The ND Levang Wells, QEP, Grail Oil Field -- February 3, 2017

From a post dated January 18, 2017:
One permit canceled:

  • QEP: an ND Levang permit in McKenzie County; it was also noted that QEP is changing the target formation on one ND Levang well from the Three Forks third bench to the middle Bakken based on name change (#33267: the ND Levang permit that was 3-16-21T3HD is now ND Levang 7-16-21BHD).
The ND Levang permits/wells:
  • 33333, loc, QEP, ND Levang 6-16-21BHD, Grail,
  • 33332, loc, QEP, ND Levang 2-16-21T2HD, Grail,
  • 33331, loc, QEP, ND Levang 5-16-21BHD, Grail,
  • 33270, PNC, QEP, ND Levang 5-16-21T2HD, Grail,
  • 33269, loc, QEP, ND Levang 8-16-21BHD, Grail,
  • 33268, loc, QEP, ND Levang 4-16-21T2HD, Grail,
  • 33267, loc, QEP, ND Levang 7-16-21BHD, Grail, see note above,
************************************

The ND Levang wells:


The Closer, T+14, February 3, 2017

Active rigs:


2/3/201702/03/201602/03/201502/03/201402/03/2013
Active Rigs4044143188187

Seven (7) new permits:
  • Operators: XTO (4), QEP (3)
  • Fields: Bear Den (McKenzie), Grail (McKenzie)
  • Comments: in Bear Den, SENE 36-149-96; in the Grail, NWNW 16-150-95
Producing wells completed:
28739, 564, EOG, Parshall 86-29H, Parshall, t1/17; cum -- ; TD = 14,389; 1280-acre spacing;
28740, 697, EOG, Parshall 161-2928H, Parshall, t1/17; cum -- ; TD = 15,242; 1280-acre spacing;
31904, 900, BR, CCU Golden Creek 3-1-26TFH, Corral Creek, t1/17; cum --
31905, 1,065, BR, CCU Golden Creek 2-1-26MBH, Corral Creek, t12/16; cum --

Bakken 2.0: Testing Completion Methods -- February 3, 2017

See BR's Gudmunson wells in Elidah oil field, note:
  • one well with 24 stages (old school); 10 million lbs (new school)
  • another well with 61 stages (new school); 14 million lbs (new school)
**********************
Turmoil At FERC

Won't affect DAPL, Keystone. The turmoil at FERC would not affect the proposed Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines. FERC does not issue permits for oil pipelines.

************************
Closing Out A Poll

OPEC, Russian cuts in crude oil production will result in a spike in oil prices in late 2018:
  • agree: 39%
  • disagree: 60%
  • even sooner: 1 vote
I'm in the camp that says the price oil will "melt up" in an orderly fashion. I'm not alone: "It is unrealistic to expect that the commodity will reach $65 a barrel in the near term, an analyst at the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) told CNBC.

*******************************
New Poll

Making America greater than ever before -- quick, without a google search, how many private jets will descend on Houston this weekend for the NFL Super Bowl? [Later, February 4, 2017: Results of the poll:
  • 13: 2%
  • 130: 28%
  • 1,300: 55%
  • 13,000: 15%
Correct answer 1,300.]

This is a huge, huge deal. In the future, the Super Bowl can only be held where local airfields can handle 1,300 private jets.

Climate warming? Are you kidding?

********************
Lockheed 

A single Trump tweet saves over $700 million on 90 new F-35 fighters. One link here but being reported everywhere.

Politics On T+14; "Clock Boy" Clocked; February 3, 2017

As I'm sitting here watching Fox Business News, the news is non-stop with regard to Trump and the White House. Trump is everywhere, 24/7. Has he even gone golfing yet? Yes, he has but one would never know it. Progs are not seen on television -- has anyone seen Schumer lately? Except when he cried over the Feinstein-Obama-Trump immigration plan. By the way, that immigration flap? It's old news. The protestors can't keep up.


********************************

Morning reality show: Trump getting ready to meet with CEO advisory council.

Putin's a/c carrier: nearly home; in the Barents Sea, north of Sweden.

Dodd-Frank to be eviscerated; banks will surge.

Berkeley burning. Old news. Now NYU out of control. This will help the optics, the prog narrative.

"Clock Boy" clocked. Case dismissed; ordered to pay attorney fee, court fees



*********************************
Timelines

The Obama Timeline: "drawing a red line"
  • announcement via a long, Harvard-law-professor-like speech; uses the pronoun "I" not less than a dozen times
  • six months -- watchful waiting -- more speeches
  • red line fades away; nothing happens
The Trump Timeline: "put on notice"
  • two days later, a crawler on television announcing new sanctions 
  • no speech; just happens -- two days later 
  • complete transparency: says he will act; acts

Market Stories On T+14: Huge Jobs Report For Donald Trump; Can't Wait For Tweet -- February 3, 2017

Market late morning: up 180 points. 

Market surges on Trump's job numbers: surges 112 points on the opening!  Dow 30 back up over 20,000. Wow!

Another fake story? I'm waiting for The New York Times to wade in. Yesterday it was the "bacon shortage." Today it's the "severe vegetable shortage in Europe, depriving Europeans of spinach, broccoli." Why? Oh, it's global warming -- "European consumers have been plunged into crisis by a vegetable shortage caused by severe weather. I can't make this stuff up.

Here in Texas? Vegetables are in season:


 *******************************
Pre-Market

Jobs day: everyone watching for first monthly jobs report under President Trump. Forecast: economy will add 175,000 jobs; unemployment will remain unchanged at 4.7%. Some on Fox Business News think we could see a blow-out number of over 200,000, some even say 225,000. The whisper number is 230,000; now talking heads saying much higher numbers. Analyst says Houston oil jobs coming back faster than expected. Market is up 50 points in anticipation.

And the numbers are: 227,000. Unemployment rate ticks up to 4.8%. Labor force participation up. Hourly wage up 0.1%. Labor participation up to 62.9% -- first movement in some time.
  • retail: 46K
  • construction: 36K
  • manufacturing: 5K
Government jobs? Down 10,000
Analysis: Trump deserves credit; enthusiasm under Trump. Market jumps; futures now up 84 points.  Fox News gives much credit to Trump; CNBC says it has nothing to do with Trump. Now CNBC says the "great moves (stock market, jobs) not due to Trump winning, due to Hillary losing." Wow, I'm glad I've moved to Fox News

Jobs: Japan putting together package to bring 700,000 jobs to the US; putting finishing touches on a package that could create a $450-billion market. Finally mentioned on Fox Business "Morning With Maria" at 7:43 a.m. Central Time. Finally, Stu Varney, 7:52 a.m. Central Time excited about this news, but Maria and others change subject again. I guess everyone is waiting for Abe's package. But remember: when you see Abe's package, you heard about it here first.

**********************************
Oil

WTI: just under $54 before jobs report.

OPEC crude oil cut: OPEC and Russia are "shielding Asia from supply cuts agreed in a landmark deal last year as they fight to protect their market share in Asia." Data points:
  • Asia is OPEC's core and growing market
  • re-balancing will be slower in Asia unless regional demand picks up
  • signs of an ongoing Asian oversupply
  • ~ 30 chartered supertankers, known as Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) are sitting in the waters outside Asia's oil trading hub of Singapore and southern Malaysia
**************************************
Natural Gas

Warmists tell us this winter has been the warmest winter in the US in a gazillion years. The warmest winter.

One assumes, with the warm weather, REX 3, and the Marcellus, natural gas stores should be surging. Not so fast! Natural gas stores have dropped below the five-year average. Who wudda thoughts? A warm winter and the Marcellus? Can you say "war on coal" and "nuclear energy plants closing":




*************************
Making America Greater Than Ever

Another huge story today: Japan putting together a package to create 700,000 jobs in America; will use Japanese cash reserves to pay for infrastructure builds in the US. Makes one think: what's going on?

Some things to think about:
  • cheapest energy in the world, and plenty of it; much of it "green"
  • corporate tax reform on the horizon
  • repeal ObamaCare: huge corporate tax relief; huge regulatory relief 
  • end of "climate change" craziness
  • end of huge "multi-national deals that compromise toward mediocrity; America on short end; return to bilateral negotiations; friends of US at front of the line

The Opener, T+14 -- February 3, 2017

Active rigs:


2/3/201702/03/201602/03/201502/03/201402/03/2013
Active Rigs4044143188187

RBN Energy: why vertically integrated midstream companies hold an edge.

Scott Adams: President Trump and the other countries.

Active rigs? Staying alive. At 40 rigs, near what it was last year:

Stayin' Alive, Bee Gees