Updates
January 29, 2017: I received this comment after posting the note below:
I watch the Bakken more than you and I worked for Hess 45 years ago. I can tell you without any reservations that a well shut in for any significant time will display an increase in production. The amount of increase is based on duration of being shut in.You can see the original comment at this post; it's the first comment there.
For those who have been following the blog know the background story to this, so I won't go through it again. I address the issue in more depth at "FAQs", question #81.
Bottom line is this: folks who understand oil much better than I do; who have followed the oil industry longer than I have; who have often worked in the oil industry; who have written me on this issue, all agree that any increase seen in production after a neighboring well is fracked is due to simply to increased pressure that has built up while the well was shut-in or taken off-line to protect it while the neighboring well was fracked.
For readers: I would listen to the folks who understand the Bakken much better than I; who have followed the oil industry long than I have; who have often worked in the oil industry.
I think it's a fascinating phenomenon, production jumping from 9,350 boe/month to 32,000 boe/month after being shut in for three months. That data point alone begs the next question. Actually that raises several questions. Perhaps another day.
Original Post
Check out the production profile for this well drilled/completed back in 2012. Note that it was off-line for about four months back in late summer/autumn, 2016:
Monthly Production Data
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 12-2016 | 31 | 18890 | 18619 | 3905 | 60345 | 52280 | 8005 |
BAKKEN | 11-2016 | 30 | 22710 | 22443 | 6011 | 54512 | 45465 | 8988 |
BAKKEN | 10-2016 | 21 | 19472 | 19607 | 7581 | 33363 | 17446 | 15876 |
BAKKEN | 9-2016 | 1 | 1493 | 1077 | 998 | 2356 | 174 | 2180 |
BAKKEN | 8-2016 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 7-2016 | 8 | 1543 | 1629 | 386 | 3718 | 3560 | 144 |
BAKKEN | 6-2016 | 30 | 6674 | 6624 | 1878 | 16056 | 15996 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 5-2016 | 11 | 2500 | 2619 | 904 | 4282 | 3537 | 728 |
BAKKEN | 4-2016 | 24 | 4763 | 4642 | 1266 | 14040 | 13228 | 764 |
BAKKEN | 3-2016 | 31 | 6618 | 6860 | 1650 | 18814 | 18542 | 210 |
BAKKEN | 2-2016 | 29 | 7237 | 7278 | 1665 | 18816 | 18758 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 1-2016 | 31 | 8287 | 7981 | 2027 | 22133 | 21630 | 441 |
A neighboring / new well was fracked late summer/autumn, 2016, API: 33-053-06747-00-00, fracked 9/17-23/2015; 2.9 million gallons water; total mass, 19% proppant;
Monthly Production Data:
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 11-2016 | 30 | 23163 | 23797 | 6210 | 77575 | 77406 | 58 |
BAKKEN | 10-2016 | 31 | 35844 | 36084 | 10758 | 89424 | 87090 | 2217 |
BAKKEN | 9-2016 | 4 | 5464 | 4368 | 2234 | 9309 | 9275 | 3 |
BAKKEN | 8-2016 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 7-2016 | 13 | 10524 | 10759 | 1940 | 46534 | 46414 | 71 |
BAKKEN | 6-2016 | 30 | 29145 | 29290 | 6278 | 112794 | 112636 | 48 |
BAKKEN | 5-2016 | 31 | 34739 | 34823 | 7064 | 111921 | 108678 | 3136 |
BAKKEN | 4-2016 | 30 | 37617 | 37083 | 4467 | 122637 | 121577 | 960 |
BAKKEN | 3-2016 | 31 | 44583 | 44923 | 5288 | 141867 | 140859 | 903 |
BAKKEN | 2-2016 | 24 | 43519 | 43447 | 9698 | 108313 | 108095 | 142 |
BAKKEN | 1-2016 | 31 | 54350 | 54271 | 10297 | 134072 | 132061 | 1922 |
BAKKEN | 12-2015 | 31 | 63293 | 63835 | 15005 | 152601 | 147947 | 4556 |
BAKKEN | 11-2015 | 15 | 35158 | 34953 | 11139 | 63018 | 49687 | 13271 |
BAKKEN | 10-2015 | 14 | 17528 | 16796 | 13243 | 40796 | 30295 | 10445 |
The earlier well:
- 22361, 4,971, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 21-4-3H, a middle Bakken well, t12/12; cum 499K 11/16;
- 30774, 1,844, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-5TFH; a Three Forks well;
*******************************************
Another well in the immediate area did not show any increase in production, except perhaps the first full month coming back on-line; it was also off-line about 2.5 months:
- 30776, 1,345, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-3TFH, a Three Forks, t10/15; cum 235K 11/16;
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 11-2016 | 30 | 11187 | 11493 | 3798 | 52165 | 52051 | 39 |
BAKKEN | 10-2016 | 31 | 17313 | 16853 | 6581 | 60133 | 58564 | 1491 |
BAKKEN | 9-2016 | 1 | 348 | 401 | 180 | 825 | 822 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 8-2016 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 7-2016 | 14 | 5354 | 5439 | 1250 | 32961 | 32876 | 50 |
BAKKEN | 6-2016 | 30 | 12849 | 12917 | 3356 | 76260 | 76154 | 32 |
BAKKEN | 5-2016 | 31 | 15508 | 15542 | 3656 | 84073 | 81636 | 2356 |
BAKKEN | 4-2016 | 30 | 16616 | 16388 | 3558 | 73073 | 72441 | 572 |
BAKKEN | 3-2016 | 31 | 21449 | 21670 | 4070 | 78193 | 77637 | 498 |
BAKKEN | 2-2016 | 24 | 25532 | 25529 | 4190 | 70867 | 70724 | 93 |
Disclaimer: the NDIC map was hard to read due to all the horizontals; there may be errors. In addition, the narrative was done quickly and there are likely to be factual and typographical errors. Again, no conclusions/analyses are being drawn; this is simply being posted as an observation.
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