Monday, April 19, 2021

Portland, OR -- April 19, 2021

During the "riot" the other night in Portland, OR, the Apple store was set afire. Source did not provide details. 

The Silver Squeeze

Time magazine. Link here.

Life Is What You Make It

We recently moved to a new apartment. We are about a half-mile south of where we were but no longer in our beloved Grapevine, TX. Our address is now in the non-descript city of Euless, TX. Population, 53,000.

Our apartment is on the second floor. It is luxurious. It has a balcony. 

The view from the balcony is incredible. If one squints hard enough during the day one can almost make out  the Greek isles of Lesbos and Limnos (Lemnos). 

At night, if I look to the northeast, I can just barely make out the green light (lantern?) at the end of Daisy's dock -- the East Egg.  [The party scene.]

And in the morning, when the sun comes up, and the memories have faded away, I see the back of Target and several other big box stores and their loading ramps that were so busy the night before.


My favorite quote of all time

We had all the momentum; we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave... So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high water mark — that place where the wave finally broke, and rolled back. -- Hunter S. Thompson.

Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

My Memoirs

I finally have the idea for the memoir that I will leave the granddaughters. The grandsons won't care. LOL. 

Think: Palimpsest by Gore Vidal. 

The Bakken will not be mentioned. 

Book Recommendation

For the high school senior who plans to major in biology, perhaps go on to medical school: Life Ascending: The Ten Great Inventions Of Evolution, Nick Lane, c. 2010.

Full Speed Ahead, Damn The Torpedoes -- CLR WIth Eight More Permits; Active Rig Count Drops By One; WTI Holds Above $63 -- April 19, 2021

Saudi: oil in storage. Starting about now, Saudis will start increasing their domestic consumption of oil for generating electricity for air conditioning.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1632635950

Eight new permits, #38263 - 38270, inclusive --

  • Operator: CLR
  • Fields: Chimney Butte (Dunn County); Jim Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • 38263, conf, CLR, Pletan 9-18H1, Jim Creek, 365 FNL 1600 FEL NWNE 18-146-95,
    • 38264, conf, CLR, Pletan 10-18H, Jim Creek, 365 FNL 1555 FEL NWNE 18-146-95,
    • 38265, conf, CLR, Pletan 11-18H1, Jim Creek, 365 FNL 1510 FEL NWNE 18-146-95,
    • 38266, conf, CLR, Dvirnak 12-8HSL1, Chimney Butte, 325 FSL 760 FWL SWSW 8-146-95,
    • 38267, conf, CLR, Pletan 12-18HSL, Chimney Butte, 325 FSL 805 FWL SWSW 8-146-95,
    • 38268, conf, CLR, Jensen 8-8HSL, Chimney Butte, 325 FSL 850 FWL SWSW 8-146-95,
    • 38269, conf, CLR, Jensen 9-8H1, Chimney Butte, 325 FSL 895FWL SWSW 8-146-95,
    • 38270, conf, CLR, Mittlestadt 9-17H1, Chimney Butte, 325 FSL 940 FWL SWSW 8-146-95,
  • The CLR Pletan-Dvirnak pad is tracked here.  
  • The CLR Mittlestadt pad is tracked here.
  • The CLR Jensen wells are noted here.

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 34630, SI/A, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 34-20-1TFH, Sand Creek, first production, 2/21; t--; cum 29K over 19 days; Tarpon Federal wells are tracked here;
  • 34631, SI/A, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 34-20-1H, Sand Creek, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 37K over 26 days; Tarpon Federal wells are tracked here;
  • 35193, SI/A, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 34-20-3H, Sand Creek, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 40K over 24 days; Tarpon Federal wells are tracked here;
  • 36682, drl/A, Hess, BL-Iverson C-155-96-2314H-9, Beaver Lodge, first production, 6/20; t--; cum 110K 2/21; parent well, #16400, no halo effect; taken off line for several months; back line 9/20; producing since 2007, only 164K bbls;

Crude Oil Is Dead! Long Live Crude Oil -- Global Crude Oil Demand On Pace To Set All-Time Record By Next Year (2022) -- April 19, 2021

From Rigzone: global oil demand is predicted to jump six percent in 2021. That's this year. And the increase in demand only gets bigger in the out years.

  • for all of 2021: an average of 95.4 million bopd
  • April, 2021: should hit 93 million bopd
  • May, 2021: should hit 94 million bopd
  • June, 2021: 95.8 million bopd
  • 3Q21: 96.8 million bopd
  • 4Q21: 98.3 million bopd
  • 2022: 99.4 million bopd (see below -- this gets us back to the all-time record set in 2019)

Statista global oil demand, historical data here and projected data here, all in million bopd:

  • 2026: 104.1
  • 2025: 103.2
  • ....
  • 2022: 99.4 (next year will be back to the all-time record set in 2019)
  • 2021: 96.5
  • 2020: 91
  • 2019: 99.7 (an all-time record at that point)

CEIC historical data here for the us, through 2019:

  • 2019: 19.400 million bopd
  • 2018: 19.427 million bopd (appears to be the record)
  • 2017: 18.883 million bopd
  • .....
  • 2012: 17.594 million bopd (the low point since 2008)

Airline Update

American Airlines will triple the number of seats to Billings, MT, this year. 

The carrier will have triple the number of seats this summer to Billings, Mont., compared with 2019. St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands will be up 150%. CancĂșn—already a big destination—will be 36% bigger than 2019, Mr. Znotins says.

Link here.

Not Sure What This Might Mean

Our younger daughter received this message from her health care insurer / provider: she was twenty-two years overdue for her Covid-19 vaccine.

Who knew?

India: Got Coal? April 19, 2021

Reuters: India may build new coal plants due to low cost despite climate change. 

Obviously India is looking at what China is "getting away with" and asking, "are you kidding me?" 

John Kerry says China is committed to climate change.

It appears that according to Greta and John, the only country not doing enough is the US.

Oh, there it is, John Kerry says India is also committed to fighting global warming. Kerry's quote and I can't make this up:

"India was getting the job done on climate, pushing the curve." -- John Kerry, April, 2021

Look at the data points in the article re: India:

  • coal's contribution to electricity generation in India fell for the second -- repeat, second -- straight year;
  • marks a departure from decades of growth in coal-fired power;
  • coal still accounts for three-fourths (75%) of India's annual power output
  • India is the world's third-largest greenhouse gas emitter (a worthless metric, by the way)

India says if it adds new coal plants, the plants "should only deploy ultra super critical less polluting technologies or other more efficient technology."

I'm looking forward to that ultra super critical less polluting technologies.

My hunch: if India goes that route, China will add super-ultra super-dooper ultra-critical even less polluting technologies. 

More on India here, but until we get to post-Covid-19 normal, most of this data is meaningless as regards to the long-term trends. 

The War for Control of Mexico's Energy Industry


Link here.

DAPL: Where We Stand Today -- April 19, 2021

Where we stand today:

Friday, April 9, 2021, day 0:

  • US Army Corps of Engineers won't shut it down; will let judge decide
  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;


Saturday, April 17, 2021, day 8:
  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Sunday, April 18, 2021, day 9:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Monday, April 19, 2021, day 10:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Tuesday, April 20, 2021, day 11:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Wednesday, April 21, 2021, day 12:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Thursday, April 22, 2021, day 13:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Friday, April 23, 2021, day 14:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

NOTE: unless there is a significant update, it is likely "The DAPL: Where We Stand Today" will go on hiatus for the immediate future. 

Looking at the calendar, it appears this could be dragged out for weeks. The Bismarck Tribune posts a timeline at this link

Pipeline operator Energy Transfer faces a deadline Monday, April 19, 2021, to submit extra information to the court about the economics surrounding the Dakota Access Pipeline.

That filing is expected to include details about how the price of oil has risen in recent months, leading to a better outlook for the oil industry than last year. Attorneys also are expected to touch on the coronavirus vaccine rollout and how the demand for oil could increase as more people start to travel. [So, it looks like factors completely unrelated to the pipeline itself are being considered. Might as well throw "global warming" and Chinese coal plants into the argument.]

The case is before U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, who has given the Standing Rock Sioux and other tribes fighting the pipeline until Friday, April 23 April, 2021, to indicate whether they will respond to the update provided by Energy Transfer.

Boasberg likely will rule in the coming weeks on whether the pipeline must shut down for the duration of a lengthy environmental review. He's expected to decide once he receives the updates from the parties involved in the lawsuit.

Energy Transfer, meanwhile, has petitioned for a federal appeals court to rehear the case after it upheld parts of Boasberg's past rulings revoking a permit for the pipeline's Missouri River crossing and requiring the review.

The company has asked Boasberg to hold off ruling on a potential pipeline shutdown until the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit has decided what to do about its rehearing request. It's not clear whether Boasberg will follow the company's wishes or rule before the appeals court acts.

It appears that the judge is considering whether the rising price of oil will mitigate effects on shareholders before he makes his decision. I guess that makes sense. Why not? Picking winners and losers.

Four Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; WTI Holds Above $63 -- April 19, 2021

RBN Energy: E&Ps maintain conservative investment despite rising commodity prices

As the U.S. starts to emerge from under the dark cloud of the COVID-19 pandemic, one hopes that some valuable lessons have been learned as a result of the hardships and sacrifices so many have endured.  
While the most profound impacts were on government, healthcare and other essential services, the sudden drop in hydrocarbon demand a year ago triggered severe financial hardships for the E&P sector and provoked unpleasant memories of previous energy industry crises in 2008 and 2014-16. 
Producers have historically put the brakes on capital spending when commodity prices fell, then stomped on the accelerator like a race car heading into a straightaway when prices rose. But recently unveiled 2021 budgets for many E&Ps suggest that, even with the rebound in prices, they are maintaining a conservative investment paradigm that highlights strengthening balance sheets and rewarding shareholders at the expense of rapid production growth. Today, we’ll analyze the 2021 capital spending plans of the 39 E&Ps we monitor and the likely impact on their crude oil and natural gas output.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs

Active Rigs1732635950

Wells coming off the confidential list --

Wednesday, April 21, 2021: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 98 for the year:

  • None.

Tuesday, April 20, 2021: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 98 for the year:

  • None.

Monday, April 19, 2021: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 98 for the year:

  • 35803, F/A, Enerplus, Blizzard 149-93-07A-12H-TF, Mandaree, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 116K 2/21;

Sunday, April 18, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 97 for the year:

  • 37716, drl/NC,  CLR, Carson Peak 12-35H1, Oakdale, no production data,
Saturday, April 17, 2021: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 96 for the year:
  • 37794, drl/NC,  CLR, Carson Peak 13-35H, Oakdale, no production data,
  • 36922, AL/A,  MRO, Lang USA 41-8TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 206K 2/21, see this post.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Other data for the Lang well, posted elsewhere, also:

FracFocus (link here) -- 33-06-04594:

  • fracked 9/16/20 - 9/28/20:
  • 9.85 million gallons of water (not particularly remarkable; a moderate-size frack)
  • 86.3% water by mass;
  • friction reducers:
  • HVFR-100, DynaChem USA; CAS 64742-47-8;
  • HVFR-100, DynaChem USA; CAS 69011-36-5;

From the file report:

  • from a sundry form received November 13, 20219:
    • name change to Lang USA 41-8TFH;
    • hand-written NDIC note: target formation changed to TF B1;
    • SHL changed to 1184' FNL 845' FEL, section 8-151-93
    • BHL changed to 190' FNL 2460' FEL, section 12-151-94
    • administrative fee for this change: $25.00
  • original permit:
    • middle Bakken:
    • 3200-acre spacing unit: sections 5/6/7/8-151-93, E2 of sections 1 & 12 - 151-94
  • completion report
    • TD: 23,509'
    • target, Three Forks first bench, geologic top, top TVD: 10,638'.
    • IP: 
      • oil: 5,099 bbls
      • gas (MCF): 4,771
    • completion:
      • 17 million lbs proppant; huge frack;
      • stages: 52
      • volume: 234,497 bbls
  • geologist's report not yet scanned in file report