Update On The Devon Brakken "Discovery Well" -- March 9, 2026

Locator: 50177B. 

The Devon energy Brakken 30-31 1-H ("discovery well") has been off line since 2/25, suggesting that the four new Brakken wells were recently fracked. Generally, "discovery" wells are brought back on line quickly if they are going to be put back into production. This suggests the original Brakken well may not be going back into production. The good news: it's still listed as "IA." 

See this post for four new Brakken wells soon coming off confidential list. 

The well:

• 19008, 2,804, Devon Energy/Grayson Mill/Equinor/Statoil, Brakken 30-31 1-H, Catwalk, t12/10; cum 314K 1/25; a good well; two-section spacing; stimulated 12/03/2010; 30 stages; 3,484,740 lbs proppant; 69,510 bbls fluid; at the time, a wildcat well; initial production:

BAKKEN	5-2011	16	2740	3084	3978	2464	0	2464
BAKKEN	4-2011	24	4339	4437	3283	3077	0	3077
BAKKEN	3-2011	31	8266	8952	7737	6708	0	6708
BAKKEN	2-2011	28	11103	11723	8761	9657	0	9657
BAKKEN	1-2011	28	12123	11545	9242	14882	0	14882
BAKKEN	12-2010	31	29888	28285	22114	49258	0	49258

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Jiu-Jitsu

Link here. 

A Step Down Memory Lane -- The Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum -- Reposting -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48431MUSEUM.

Note: decades ago, the first love-of-my-life -- we were both in our early20's, I suppose -- maybe in our mid-20s -- she was a Harvard medical school student doing rotations at Mass General. I was going down a a similar road but out in Southern California. Linda lived in a brownstone apartment on Beacon Street, in the 400-block. It was a gorgeous location and a gorgeous apartment. How she could afford it, I do not know but she had the highest tastes so it did not surprise me. 

Years later I learned that Isabella Steward Gardner and her husband lived out their entire lives on that same street in Back Bay, Beacon Street in the 100-block. If she walked, it would have been a 16-minute walk for Linda from her apartment to Ms Gardner's apartment. I doubt either of us knew that at the time. 

Our lives were way too busy with other things. 

Beacon Street:

Some say the American dream is owning a big house.

Not me. My American dream would have been ....

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The note below was posted back in 2012. I happened to be reading about the Isabella Stewart Gardner museum again the other day and then happened across this post from thirteen (wow, thirteen!) years ago. It's worth posting again for the grandchildren and the archives.

******************* 

A note to the granddaughters

[After posting the note below, I got a few comments from others including Arne C. who directed me to his blog: http://miscbaseball.wordpress.com/2010/06/11/a-very-brief-historical-tour-of-fenway-park/]

Now I know why you love this art museum, Boston's Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum.

You have visited at least once, but that was before the new "wing." I visited it for the first time yesterday, and I was simply overwhelmed. I had never seen anything like it before, and my first impression was this is the best art museum I had ever seen.

Now, 24 hours later, reflecting on it, maybe it's a bit much to say this is the best art museum in the world, but it may be the best art museum experience in the world.  It certainly is a museum no one should miss. If you visit Boston and have time for only one museum, I think this would be it. And that's a tough call. Competing for your time: the Museum of Fine Arts in Boston; the JFK Library and Museum south of Boston; and, the Peabody Essex Museum, north of Boston in Salem/Essex. But whereas the MFA is a "typical" big city fine arts museum, the ISG is unique. The ISG Italian palace is part of the experience; for some (including me) the palace may be THE experience.

I was overwhelmed. Even though the new wing has been open now for several weeks, the line to purchase tickets still exceeded my expectations.  We walked through a long glass corridor to get to the palace. Immediately upon entering, one realizes one is in a different kind of museum. The three-story structure is built around a classic Italian courtyard. I was immediately reminded of the Roman baths in Bath, England. Absolutely spectacular. I explored three or four rooms/corridors/hallways in the immediate area after emerging from the glass corridor -- the rooms around the courtyard on the ground floor, and I realized I was overwhelmed. It was a unique experience. I did not have the same experience in the Louvre. I assume I had some idea of what to expect when visiting the Louvre for the first time, but I had no idea what to expect when visiting the ISG for the first time.

I went back to the new wing to collect my thoughts. In the opposite quadrant from the restaurant, is the "living room." Isabella Gardner loved books; in fact, I believe she started collecting books before she started collecting art, and throughout the museum -- I hate to call it a museum -- it's a palace -- are shelves of her books. I could spend hours in the "living room." With comfortable sofas and individual chairs, surrounded by books to be read by visitors, it is a most relaxing room. It is "outside" the palace proper and thus no admission charge. There were several books I spent some time with, but my two favorites: the 2012 anniversary edition celebrating the Boston Red Sox and Fenway Park; and the collected letters of Isabella Gardner and her co-conspirator in art collecting, Bernard Berenson. 

This is my snapshot of the ISG Museum story. Isabella loved life. She married a New York City man who created his own wealth through smart investments; they moved to Boston where they settled in the newly filled in Back Bay. She was not well educated but she more than made up for that by self-education for the rest of her life. She was devastated by the death of her 2-year old son. To get her out of her depression, her husband took her to Europe. That began her love for travel, Europe, particularly Italy, and an eye for collecting. She had taken some "adult courses" under a history professor at Harvard which was probably the life-altering event in her life with regard to art and history.

Through serendipity, she met a young (incredibly handsome) Harvard undergraduate Bernard Berenson who wanted to be the intermediary identifying, buying, and collecting art for a rich patron. He began scouring the continent for art work for Ms Gardner who had just inherited $1.6 million from her father upon his death.

She and Berenson collected art at the turn of the century and became a very, very close and successful team. The stories coming out of the museum suggest they had had a "come-to-Jesus" moment when she discovered he was being paid a handsome commission by European dealers from whom he bought art, as well as a five percent commission from Ms Gardner. Obviously it was to his advantage for the dealer to increase his prices. Berenson must have been extremely persuasive (and very, very good looking); Ms Gardner stuck with him. The relationship appears to have grown stronger and closer.

Unexpectedly her husband died about this time; I believe she was in her late 40's or 50's. (Let's see: she was born in 1840; the palace opened in 1903 -- so late 50's I guess.) Knowing she had little time left in her life, she began immediately designing and building an Italian palace to house her art collection. She chose an empty lot near where Fenway Park came to be. Fenway Court, as she called her palace, opened in 1903; Fenway Park in 1912. The ISG Museum is now just a few blocks (within walking distance of the Boston Museum of Fine Arts) on the Green Line.

For more, visit the ISG Museum website.

Incidentally, there's a little nook, a little corner on the first floor with two chairs, a table with a dozen books, and a lamp. I don't know if Ms Gardner placed that ensemble there herself but it has "her" feeling. I don't think many visitors realize it provides an opportunity for folks like me, who become overwhelmed, to simply sit and reflect on this most personal of personal museums, as some have described this palace.

Oh, and by the way, the lunch menu was very unique and the food excellent, including affordable wines. I had a Samuel Adams -- you know, I was just reminded that Paul Revere was captured before he completed his midnight ride. Walt Whitman admitted he used artistic license to write his poem. But, Paul Revere was able to warn his close friends Sam Adams and John Hancock before he was captured. But I digress.

Notes From All Over -- Nothing About The Bakken -- July 16, 2020

Locator: 23456BIO.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

I normally don't link these kind of articles, but because of one of the nine stocks mentioned I thought it interesting for the archives. From US News & World Report, nine dividend stocks to buy and hold forever. The nine:

• Novartis 
• National Health Investors
• PetMed Express
• Amcor
• Verizon Communications
• Toronto-Dominion Bank
• Duke Energy Corp.
• Oneok
• Chubb

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What's In A Name?

This is a very long vignette, for lack of a better word. It has nothing to do with the Bakken, and I'm only posting it for the archives.

First, a little bit from White Mischief, by James Fox.

Shortly after the murder of her lover, Josslyn Hay, Diana set off on a safari with her husband, Jock Broughton, who was charged with the murder of Joss. Diana was one of the best hunters, male or female, on African safaris, at the time.

From the book, pp. 90 - 91:

Then, later in February, less than three weeks after the murder, Broughton and Diana set off, incredibly, on a full-scale shooting safari, into the Southern Masai Reserve along the Mara river. They were accompanied by the famous white hunter, John Hunter, and Hugh Dickinson, whom they hadn't seen since the end of January.

The safari lasted eight days, and the party traveled by truck, open car, and on foot. It was already clear that Diana was deeply suspicious of her husband and their relations were severely strained.

It seems astonishing that such a trip should have been contemplated in the circumstances. Eight days in the bush can break the closest of friendships and Broughton, at the best of times, had been known to make terrible scenes on hunting trips with Vera (his first wife), on one occasion overturning all the tables in the camp, and then kicking Vera until her shins bled.

But as at Muthaiga (their club in Nairobi), where lunch could never be suspended merely for reasons of bad feeling (sic), so the ritual task of shooting lion and buffalo took precedence over personal crises, and provided its own therapeutic bloodletting.

Diana had recovered enough of her composure to shoot the first lion. She even took three photographs of her trophy before taking aim.  

So I had read that some weeks ago; in fact I had read that passage several times, and it stuck with me, long enough that I was able to find it again tonight.

So, hold that thought.

Today, I was continuing to read Christian Meier's "biography" of Athens. It seems that along with Zeus, perhaps one of the most important god/goddess for the Athenian Greeks was Artemis. The name of Artemis keeps popping up in the biography of Athens. Of course, Athene (Athena) had the top spot, but having said that, Artemis really shows up a lot in the book.

From pp. 116 - 117, Athens: A Portrait of the City in Its Golden Age:

In time, Greek thought seized upon the gods to exemplify basic principles.

The highest god, Zeus, for example, came to be associated with the demand for justice, and his name was linked to the concept of political order.

Interestingly enough, even Artemis, a goddess not claimed by any ethical authority, was said in one contemporary source to take pleasure not only in "bows, hunting, shade groves, stringed instruments, and dances" but in the existence of a "city of just [honest] men."

The fact that several gods worshipped by all Greeks were concerned about justice also contributed to the Greek sense of unity. Their shared understanding of what constituted law set them apart from the barbarians.

Reading that short passage on Artemis, I immediately thought back to Diana in Kenya two thousand years later.

From wiki, Artemis was the Greek goddess of the hunt, the wilderness, wild animals, the Moon, and chastity.

Of course, except for "chastity," this described Diana of Nairobi to a "t" as they say.

Artemis: the Greek name for this goddess.

The Roman name for this goddess of the hunt, the wilderness, wild animals? Diana.

One wonders if these safari hunters, around the campfires at night, ever talked about the Greek and Roman gods. 

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Tusk!

Tusk, Fleetwood Mac and My Alma Mater

WTI Slips Below $53 -- January 27, 2020

Active rigs:

$52.98	1/27/2020	01/27/2019	01/27/2018	01/27/2017	01/27/2016
Active Rigs	55	65	57	38	47

No new permits today.

No permits canceled.

No permits renewed.

No producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed.

No runs, no hits, no errors. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Hedging: it should be noted that how oil companies hedge their contracts, the sudden drop in oil prices could benefit some oil companies, at least on paper, for the immediate short term. However, overall, I don't think anyone bullish on oil would be happy with price of oil right now.

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The Book Page

 

Updates

Can you spot the "Sixth Extinction"? Link here.

 

The Original Post

Now that I'm reading John Hands' Cosmo Sapiens again, c. 2015, it is fun to go back and read The Sixth Extinction by Elizabeth Kolbert. Actually I've never read the entire book but I've seen the title often and have often paged through it while standing in Barnes and Noble. I couldn't imagine spending that much time reading one book with such a title but a "reader's digest" version would be welcome. It turns out there is, over at The New Yorker, May 18, 2009. Archived.

Kolbert's essay addresses early on the "fallacy" of her own title, the sixth extinction. In fact, there have been at least twenty global extinctions, but five were particularly huge, and so, for marketing, no doubt, this book was titled the "Sixth Extinction."

Depending upon how this all turns out, there is a question whether this "sixth extinction" will even be ranked among the top twenty, much less the top ten. And I guess it's agreed that it won't make the top five. I guess is if we don't kill off all the cockroaches, we won't see another global extinction make the top five. But I digress.

Reading the "reader's digest" version at The New Yorker suggests my initial hunches were correct. The sixth extinction had mostly to do with amphibians and buried deep in the article:

But, as the number of examples [of disappearing amphibians] increased, the evidence only seemed to grow more confounding. Though amphibians in some remote and—relatively speaking—pristine spots seemed to be collapsing, those in other, more obviously disturbed habitats seemed to be doing fine. Meanwhile, in many parts of the world there weren’t good data on amphibian populations to begin with, so it was hard to determine what represented terminal descent and what might be just a temporary dip.

I've never gotten too excited about the link between man and the potential extinction of amphibians. After all, as Kolbert herself noted:

The fifth [extinction] occurred at the end of the Cretaceous period, sixty-five million years ago. The end-Cretaceous event exterminated not just the dinosaurs but seventy-five per cent of all species on earth.

To the best of my knowledge, neither men in general nor one man in particular, Trump, had anything to do with the fifth extinction. And yet it occurred. Of the dinosaurs, only the birds survived. 

On another note: for me, amphibians have always been a transitional clade, one of two clades that solved the problem of preventing eggs from drying out for those adventurous animals that tried to move from the sea to the land. Amphibians never really pulled it off; they return to the "sea" to lay their egg; the amniotes succeeded where amphibians failed.

I'm always been more surprised by the fact that amphibians have survived this long, much less surprised that they might go extinct in the next several million years. With or without the help of man.

Along that same line, I always thought "reptiles" were a grab-bag of animals assigned to a clade (or better said, a grade) that really didn't fit anywhere else. The term "Reptilia" is falling out of favor to "Sauropsida" (wiki) and it appears Reptilia/Sauropsida are defined more by what they are not, than what they are. Despite their small number, it appears "Reptilia/Sauropsida" are gaining more "stature" among biologists, at least based on the amount of new information printed since I last studied them in high school.

From the internet/wiki: there are about 7,500 species of extant reptiles. There are approximately 8,000 species of amphibians, of which 90% are frogs.

From John Hands, page 279,

Estimates of the number of living eukaryotic species range from five million to 30 million, of which around two million have been described.
Only about 4,500 prokaryotic species (bacteria and archaea) have been described, but estimates of their total number in the top  one kilometer of the Earth's crust alone range from 10^8 to 10^17 (a hundred million to a hundred thousand trillion).

Mammals? 5,416 species.

And as long as I've gone this far, insects?

1.5 million beetle species and 5.5 million insect species, with about 1 million insect species currently found and described.

This is depressing.

Time for some music:

The Age of Aquarius, The Fifth Dimension   I've often wondered what the equivalent of the anaerobic St Greta of Thunberg would have "said" during the great oxidation event, also called the "oxygen holocaust," 2.4 billion years ago which not only caused almost all life on earth to go extinct but it happened relatively quickly, in the big scheme of things.

And Prince Charles is worried about a few inches in the rise of the Earth's oceans.

The Good Life -- Nothing About The Bakken -- January 6, 2020

TCM tonight: "The Maltese Falcon," 1941. [Same ensemble, one year later, "Casablanca."]

Nabisco Premium Saltines, jalapeno cheese, and Shiner Smokehouse "Original Pit Smoked Summer Sausage."

I had a lot of summer sausage while growing up in Williston; it must have been inexpensive those days because I know my mom did not have much money to spend on groceries. I have been unable to find a really good summer sausage --- until now. This was a Christmas gift from family, and it's the best summer sausage I have ever had. It's the same consistency/flavor of the summer sausage I grew up with but it also has that smoked flavor. It's really, really good.

Over the years, we've bought any number of "higher-priced" crackers for cheese, meat, etc. I generally do not care for any of them ... except Nabisco Premium Saltines. Difficult to improve on the original. Tuna fish spread (homemade) with dill pickles, olives, and jalapenos on saltines is incredible.

A pretty simple life. 


Sophia is back in town after being gone for two weeks. Sophia says she is so happy not to be sleeping in a hotel/motel tonight.

Goodnight, being carried up to bed by her oldest sister, Arianna:

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Back to Business

Futures mean squat, but, wow! Right now, futures look really, really interesting. All major indices could set new all-time highs; WTI is down.

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- December 9, 2019

Christmas gifts. Fortunately her teacher clarified that we're just talking about a toy and not the real thing. Real unicorns are in such short supply around the holidays.

Orcadian Picts? Quick! Everyone knows what a Pict is but does anyone know what "Orcadian" means?  From The Vikings: A History, Robert Ferguson, c. 2009, page 66. There are two interesting things about this story:

• there were Northern Picts, and there were Southern Picts; who knew? and,
• it appears that somewhere between the 8th century and the 9th century, practically all native Picts were wiped out.

By the Vikings.

On another note, the only two "tribes" the Romans were unable to subdue/subjugate: the Germanic tribes (think Goths and Vandals) and the Vikings.

My paternal heritage: Norwegian Vikings.

My maternal heritage: Germanic tribes, just not sure which one(s).

Scary. And then the children/grandchildren have a Japanese samurai warrior in their background.

I can't wait until Sophia is asked to write a family history essay in third grade: I'll provide her a great theme.

What Condition Is My Condition In? -- December 8, 2019

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The Artist On Her Way To Her Studio

Wind Farm Update -- Williston Herald -- December 2, 2019

From The Williston Herald, data points:

• Williams, Mountrail wind farm to use newest, largest turbines in the nation (Aurora Wind Farm; 
• one mile away fromt he Lindahl Wind Farm, near Tioga; 
• latest in a line of nine other wind energy projects either seeking permits or under construction;
• together they will add another 2,435 MW to North Dakota's already impressive energy portfolio; by itself, Aurora will produce 299 MW (nameplate, though historically, wind farms produce about 25% of nameplate capacity); 
• two types of turbines; the larger turbine will stand 181 meters from ground to tip-top blade, and product 4.8 MW; the rotor diameter of the wind turbine is 149 meters; 39 meters longer than Lindahl; 
• the federal credit was available in full for projects started by 2016, and is gradually phased out thereafter
• this year marks the last year for 40 percent of the credit; the Aurora Wind Farm, while breaking ground this year, was actually begun in 2016 due to the purchase of its turbines in that year;
• it will be receiving 100 percent of the original tax credit.

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Sophia Hitchhiking To Pre-School

Three Western North Dakota Newspapers Call It A Day -- Bismarck Tribune -- November 27, 2019

 Updates

December 4, 2019: two of the three have been purchased; "business as usual."

Original Post

 Link here.

Three official county newspapers serving thousands of readers in western North Dakota will publish their last editions on Friday.

The Adams County Record, in Hettinger; the Dunn County Herald, in Killdeer; and The Herald, in New England, are closing.

Salem, Ore.-based owner Country Media Inc. informed the association this week of the pending closures.

Very, very sad.

From a reader:

I grew up with the Slope Messenger, later consolidated with the Hettinger County Herald, I remember Earl Rundel being the publisher. He was a local rancher and legislator. He was a pretty colorful figure. I think the saying "they don't make 'em like that anymore applies." 

I guess it's a sign of getting old but I miss those days. Those old timers were also the ones that came over to see me when I came home from Viet Nam and recruited me into the Republican Party where I served on the [local] district executive commission until I moved to Fargo in the early 90's. I also remember Senator Mark Andrews, at a meeting in Medora, giving me a flag that had flown over the US capitol because "you served your country in war."  No press releases or fanfare, that's just how they did it.  

Yes, the older I get, it seems, the better my memories of the old days. Great note. Thank you. The more I read about the Vietnma War, the more it appears the country really let our enlisted US Army troops down, and the USAF POWs. Reminds me a lot of the British and French generals during WWI -- again, based on my readings. No personal experience.

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Sophia With Her Horse And Closest Friend

Housing Starts -- November 19, 2019

Link here.

• prior: 1.256 million
• prior revised: 1.266 million
• forecast: 1.320 million
• actual: 1.314 million

The narrative:

Upward acceleration for residential investment is the indication from housing starts and permits.

October starts just missed Econoday's consensus but at a 1.314 million annual rate they are, outside of August's 1.391 million, the strongest showing since May last year.

Permits are the big positive in today's report, well above expectations at a 1.461 million rate which is the strongest since the subprime housing bubble in 2007.

Three-month averages for the key single-family category confirm the strength. Starts are running at a 923,000 rate on the average which is another 12-year high and up sharply over the last two months. Single-family permits are at an 888,000 rate which is likewise pivoting higher and also the strongest in 12 years.

Multi-family homes are further contributing to October's strength, up 8.6 percent for starts and 8.2 percent for permits. Another major plus in the report is a 10.3 percent surge in housing completions to a 1.256 million, offering immediate supply and a further boost to the new home market.

The housing sector broke out its year-and-a-half slump last quarter and looks to be breaking out further so far this quarter. Low mortgage rates and high levels of employment are two very strong positives for housing where emerging strength will help offset extending weakness in the global economy and domestic manufacturing.

This an incredible report.

I normally would not have posted this but I happened to catch Steve Liesman report these numbers on CNBC this morning. He seemed absolutely depressed. I've never seen him seem so "down," so depressed. My hunch: he was thinking this absolutely should not be happening under Trump.

It also explains why the market is down today.

Consensus outlook, from Econoday;

Starts and permits have been volatile month-to-month but have been showing accelerating trends for single-family homes.

Starts in October are expected to come in at a 1.320 million annual pace, sharply higher than September's 1.256 million. The consensus for permits is pointing to a slight decline, at 1.378 million versus 1.391 million in August (revised from an initial 1.386 million).

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Actions Have Consequences

My hunch: a lot of folks "voted" for "emission-free by '53" assuming that if it didn't work out, it could all be changed anyway. After, 2015 is decades away from 2053. What folks did not understand was once those "regulations" or "feel-good policies" were in place it would affect urban planning in the near term. People's exhibit A (Brookline, MA, bans new natural gas hook-ups):

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FedEx Closes Pension Plan To New Hires

Link here. 

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The Herb Page

For Arianna

Sage, rosemary, and thyme. Link.

Note that common sage and rosemary are of the same genus. 

Sage: Lamiaceae family

• common sage, Salvia officinalis,
• a member of the mint family, Lamiaceae, native to the Mediterranean region
• evergreen
• leaves are oblong
• lavender flowers, late spring, summer 
• taste: mild to slightly peppery with some touches of mint

Rosemary: Lamiaceae family

• Salvia rosmarinus (as of 2017)
• Rosmarinus officinalis (until 2017, now a synonym)
• a member of the mint family, Lamiaceae; native to the Mediterranean region
• evergreen, needle-like leaves
• flowers in spring and summer, but can be in constant bloom in warm climates
• has been know to flower as late as early December
• taste: a strong, even pungent, pine-like fragrance and flavor

Thyme: Lamiaceae family

• Thymus vulgaris
•  a member of the mint family, Lamiaceae, native to the Mediterranean region
• evergreen
• huge in French cooking
• importance in Middle Eastern cooking cannot be understated
• along with oregano and marjoram, it is a crucial element of za'atar
• za'atar: a condiment; Arabic for both thyme and marjoram
• za'atar: contains many of the essential oils found in thyme
• dried thyme is widely used in Armenia in tisanes (called urc) --  herbal teas

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- November 19, 2019

I thought the Permian boom was over. Weren't there stories just a few weeks ago that things were slowing down in the Permian? Whatever. Link to this story here. Also at zerohedge.

I thought the Permian boom was over, part 2:

From the linked Bloomberg story via Rigzone:

The New York city area may boast the largest share of personal income in the U.S., but pay is growing the fastest in the much smaller oil-boom towns of Odessa and Midland, Texas.

Indeed, Midland’s per capita personal income of more than $122,000 a year was higher than that of San Jose, San Francisco, Boston or New York last year.

Midland and Odessa -- bases for Permian basin shale production -- have benefited from a boom that last year drove the U.S. to surpass Russia to become the world’s largest oil producer.

Still, personal income in the New York-Newark-Jersey City area last year rose to almost $1.5 trillion, or 8.3% of the U.S. total -- the largest share in the U.S. The NYC metro area was followed by Los Angeles with a 4.8% share and Chicago at 3.3%. Among the top 20 largest, Denver surpassed Riverside, California for the 18th spot last year.

For the fifth year in a row, metropolitan areas in the U.S. outpaced rural and small towns in per capita personal income -- total pay divided by population.

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Backyard News

McKesson: previously posted, about a year ago. Company's headquarters moving from San Francisco to "a suburb of Dallas." Apparently that move is now taking place. Headline story of 329 folks at San Francisco headquarters who elected not to move to Texas. I was curious -- exactly to which Dallas suburb is McKesson moving. I see why the name of the suburb was not mentioned. It's a bit confusing. The company is moving to a "planned community" inside the city of Irving, TX, pretty much in between (and north) of Dallas/Ft Worth. The "planned community" is Las Colinas.

Las Colinas? Sounds like a city in southern California or Arizona or New Mexico. I had never heard of it. Here's the wiki entry. Very, very interesting. It turns out the city is closer to my apartment than it is to Dallas or Ft Worth. It's literally just down the road from where we live. I could bike there if the twelve-lane divided highways weren't such a problem between my house and Las Colinas.

The migration of businesses to Texas is truly incredible.

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The Vikings
For The Granddaughters

The names of the three long-ships that excited the "Viking Age" literature:

• the Tune ship, unearthed at Rolvsøy, 1867; dated to about 900 AD
• the Gokstad ship, unearthed at Sandar in Vestfold, 1880; overshadowed the Tune find
• the granddaddy of them all, the Oseberg ship, unearthed at Slagen in Vestfold, 1904; dated to about 820 A.D. based on tree-ring dating; the ship's active life ended in 834 A.D., when her presumptive owner died

820 A.D. -- this would be about the same time as Constantinople reaching mid-life as a Christian city. About a century after the burial of this ship (834 A.D.),

On the other side of the Viking world from Oseberg and the Norwegian Vestfold and about a century later, the Arab diplomat and Islamic teacher Ibn Fadlan noted down his detailed description of the rites surrounding the cremation of a Viking chieftain on the banks of the Volga which he witnessed in 921.

When I was in eighth grade, my dad took my grandfather (Paul Oksol) and me to Norway. The trip to Oslo-Trondheim-Bergen-Copenhagen-Berlin-Luxembourg-Paris took lasted about three weeks I suppose. Maybe only two weeks but it was a long trip measured by everything we saw.

Early in the trip -- perhaps the first "thing" we visited  --  we were taken to the museum where one or all (?) of these long ships were on display having been restored to pristine condition. At the time I did not know what the big deal was. Things are now starting to fit together. What a great story.

My three books for the week:

• Lost To The West: The Forgotten Byzantine Empire That Rescued Western Civilization, Lars Brownworth, c. 2009.
• The Vikings: A History, Robert Ferguson, c. 2009.
• And I'm re-reading 1421: The Year China Discovered America, Gavin Menzies, c. 2008.

EOG -- 3Q19 -- Earnings

EOG press release here.

• exceeded crude oil production target range
• raised full-year 2019 crude oil growth target from fourteen to fifteen percent
• CAPEX near low end of target range
• generated "significant" net cash from operating activities and free cash flow
• reduced year-to-date well costs by five percent
• added 1,700 net premium locations to inventory now totaling 10,500 locations
• net premium locations now total over fourteen years of drilling inventory 
• new Delaware Basin Wolfcamp M and Third Bone Spring plays add 1.6 billion boe net resource potential
• "highly economic" at $40 oil and flat $2.50 natural gas price (company's definition of premium inventory)
• Wolfcamp M: an initial 855 net premium drilling locations; net resource of 1.0 billion boe across its 193,000 net acre position
• Third Bone Spring:
• 585 million boe across its 200,000 net acre position 
• net income for 3Q19: 
• $615 million vs $1.2 billion one year ago
• $1.06/share vs $2.05/share one  year ago
• adjusted: $1.13/share vs $1.75/share a year ago
• the Bakken was not mentioned in the press release except in the financial tables (mentioned once)
• brought 15 gross wells on line in the quarter
• brought 13 net wells on line in the quarter
• lateral length: 10,600 feet (longer than any other play)

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Coloring Inside The Lines

Shaleprofile.com Estimates North Dakota August, 2019, Production Up 2%, Month-Over-Month; Legacy Well Production Will Add More -- October 15, 2019

My hunch is that Shaleprofile.com estimates their numbers on pretty good data.

A reader sent this to me.

A huge "thank you" to the reader:

Shaleprofile.com put out a story on the 14th, that ND production was up about 2% (~35,000 bopd).

Their report was preliminary as the Director's Cut not out--not sure how they access the data, but oh well.

Shaleprofile only covers the modern hz production, but if you add legacy wells, of about 40,000 bopd, would put ND at something close to 1.475 MM bopd.

See: https://shaleprofile.com/2019/10/14/north-dakota-update-through-august-2019/.

The Director's Cut with August, 2019, data is scheduled to be released Friday, October 18, 2019.

Director's Cut tag: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/search/label/DirectorsCut.

Preliminary July, 2019, crude oil production was:

• 1,442,459 bopd -- new all-time high -- up 1.2% month-over-month

*******************************

Healthy Diet

Interview With Sophia.

Bakken Daily Oil Per Well -- Random Update -- October 12, 2019

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. I often see things that do not exist in the real world. I often misread stuff. There will be factual and typographical errors in all my posts. If I find them, I correct them. If any of this is important to you, go to the source.

Note: there's a big difference between what physically happens in the oil patch and what happens on Wall Street. I would never make a recommendation about investing. I track Wall Street "stuff" to help put the Bakken in perspective, and more importantly, keep me from getting bored. Having said that, I would say this: there are a lot better places to invest than in US oil. LOL.

This was taken from the second half of this post. This is so interesting, I'm going to re-post the second half of that post:

EIA dashboards:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Wow, wow, wow. I haven't looked at this in a long, long time. This is incredible.

To get to the spreadsheet:

• go to this link: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/statisticsvw.asp.
• at that link, click on "Historical monthly Bakken oil production statistics" -- about the 8th bulleted item under the first major heading; a pdf will download

This is huge.

I followed this data for years, posting updates every so often. And then about two years ago I quit tracking it for various reasons. Mostly because I wasn't interested in the data any more; I understood what was going on. Remember, the purpose of the blog is to help me understand the Bakken; it's not about capturing all the Bakken data or archiving it all. Once I understand something about the Bakken, I often lose interest.

But look at this: during the boom, in the early days of the Bakken and continuing into 2013, on a "daily oil per well" basis, the wells were setting records, as high as 140 bbls/day/well across the entire Bakken (including all the old wells and the dreaded Bakken decline rate).

Then starting in early 2016, "daily oil per well" dropped below 100 bbls/day and gradually leveled off at about 90 bbls/day. I assumed it would go lower and lower as older Bakken wells grew older and older.

Had the "daily oil per well" continued to drop we would have seen any number of "negative" stories about the Bakken. I would have become depressed.

But out of curiosity, after seeing the ShaleProfile report today, I was curious. What does the "Bakken daily oil per well" show?

Wow, wow, wow. The Bakken is back above 100 bbls/day per well.

That's huge. Folks don't realize this. This was not supposed to happen.

Almost no Bakken wells are abandoned. There are thousands of Bakken stripper wells; thousands of Bakken wells that are producing less than 500 bbls/month -- that's less than 20 bbls/day/well. It would seem impossible for the few wells that start production each month to "offset" these old, old, old wells.

One would expect the overall Bakken daily oil per well to keep falling. But to see the number turn the corner (from 94) and bounce back to 104 is, to say the least, quite incredible.

Anecdotally, I've noticed how incredible the wells are -- MRO, CLR, WLL, WPX -- incredible  work but I never expected this:

When did we last see numbers above 100 bbls/well/day? Back in 2015. Four years ago.

Peak oil? What peak oil?

Hubbert.

And the wells are costing much less now (2019) than they did in 2015.

One last thing. Up above I wrote:

Almost no Bakken wells are abandoned. There are thousands of Bakken stripper wells; thousands of Bakken wells that are producing less than 500 bbls/month -- that's less than 20 bbls/day/well. It would seem impossible for the few wells that start production each month to "offset" these old, old, old wells.

Know what else is interesting?

The old, old, old Bakken wells don't get worse, and worse, and worse. Most of them level off / plateau off at 300 to 500 bbls/month. (Meanwhile, the new wells simply get better and better).

But some of the old, old, old Bakken wells jump in production (halo effect; parent-child uplift).

My hunch is that "Bakken daily oil per well" will be fodder for Bakken naysayers, but I'm not sure. This could be quite interesting.

*************************************** 

Sophia Visiting Corky's Relatives

This is actually quite funny. There is "Calvin and Hobbes" and there is Sophia and Corky.

Yesterday, Sophia and I stopped by the local farm that opens its gates to urban folks for the entire month of October. One of the highlights: the animals -- cows, donkeys, pigs, llamas, sheep, goats, roosters, chickens.

One of the bigger delights are the those little miniature pigs.

Later, while enjoying some kettle popcorn, sitting at the picnic tables, I mentioned to Sophia that it was nice for Corky to get to see her relatives.

And swear to God, I'm not making this up. Sophia seemed downright sad when she said, "I thought [her relatives] were all dead."

Sophia was not sad that Corky was able to see her relatives. I think Sophia was sad because she (Sophia) had erroneously told Corky that her (Corky's) relatives were all dead. And now Sophia was depressed that Corky might think that she (Sophia) had lied to her. Sophia did not mean any harm; she really thought that Corky's relatives were dead.

Corky's relatives, according to Sophia, were from Colorado, but had moved to Wisconsin (or maybe, it was Michigan, I forget). But after that move, Sophia lost track of Corky's relatives. She thought maybe they had moved to Hawaii, which, of course, would explain the demise of Corky's relatives -- the Hawaiians love pork barbecue. 

[Note: it did not help matters that my wife -- Sophia's grandmother -- thought the same, that all of Corky's relatives were dead -- after all, she sees Corky's relatives every week at Albertson's, Kroger's, Tom Thumb. And not in a "good way."]

Wow, Wow, Wow --- I Just Checked -- Jason Garrett On The Hot Seat -- October 6, 2019

Cowboys lose two in a row.

34 - 24.

Ten points.

Apparently at one time, the Cowboys trailed 34 - 3.

Just Dropped In, The First Edition   ************************************* Udon Noodles and Edamame  

Udon noodles though having a subtler flavor than their counterpart, ramen noodles, easily absorb the flavor of the broth it is made in. Ramen noodles come either curly or straight whereas, udon noodles are usually straight. Udon noodles are more filling, compared to ramen, due to their thickness.

And, yes, Sophia prepares udon noodles to ramen. 

Illinois -- Drifting Away -- October 6, 2019

The article is over at ZeroHedge.

Illinois is second to Alaska in net outbound. Many move out, but few move in.

But look at that graph above. What do you notice? I missed it. Don caught it. Answer at bottom of post.

See also the IRS map on folks moving across the US; but only as recent as 2011, but it is nice because it goes back several years.

United Van Lines, 2018. For 2018, of all the United Van Line moves in/out of Illinois, 66% of folks were moving out of state; 34% were moving to the state.

Chicago Tribune has similar story, May 23, 2019. Again, like those opting to move out of NYC, I would assume, the largest segment of movers are those in the upper half socioeconomically, the ones that would "add" something to the state, not take something away from the state.

More recently, September 25, 2019, the Chicago Tribune takes a closer look at the "Illinois exit."

This is probably one of the most interesting data points:

The Illinois Policy Institute reports [Despite taxing both sales and income, Illinois has higher property taxes than every single state that does not charge an income tax](Despite taxing both sales and income, Illinois has higher property taxes than every single state that does not charge an income tax.).

State income tax rates here. It appears that the Illinois state income tax, one of the highest in the country, is 4.95% across the board.

Answer to question, hint before I post the answer: note which state Illinois residents are not moving to.

Answer later.

************************************

Corky At The Piano

Clearing Out The In-Box -- October 5, 2019

Jobs in America: record number employed; unemployment rate best in 50 years; folks are actually asking "how low can the unemployment rate go?" Mainstream media's headline: job growth slowing down. Well, duh. Unemployment:

• for whites: 3.2%
• adult men: 3.2%
• adult women: 3.1% (will go lower if Biden's plan to bring 720 million women back into the workforce)
• teenagers: 12.5%
• Asians: 2.5% (no typo: 2.5%) -- I find that interesting that Asian unemployment is actually lower than "white" unemployment -- reverse discrimination? Harvard has a plan to stop that, I know.
• Hispanics: at 3.9%, a record low; has never been this low; never;
• African-Americans: maintains record low of 5.5% set in August

Less than a week away, 10/10/19:

Apple: strong demand for the new iPhone 11;

• here; 

Pacific Northwest: looking forward to higher gasoline prices; link here at Platt's --

• west coast refineries operating at just 78% of capacity
• the lowest since November, 2016
• almost 20% lower than this time last year
• why: can't get enough crude oil
• why: Pacific Northwest limiting CBR
• much more at the linked site

Wind capacity in the US: EIA link here, September 27, 2019;

So, how do you interpret this headline (link here):

At the linked article:

• 3,204 MW of solar gas canceled in ERCOT
• 284 MW ok'd for operation -- 
• yeah, that's what I thought; "284" is such a small number, I thought it was all wind/solar; wrong
• I thought was solar
• nope, here's the data:
• fifteen projects (wind, solar, natural gas) were canceled in September
• two projects went forward
  a 100-MW natural gas plant
• a 184-MW wind farm (at 25% likely production, translates to 46 MW)

Later: regarding the ERCOT story above, I was "appalled" to the degree which the ERCOT folks would try to spin this story. Apparently another reader saw the very same thing; that reader wrote me:

The quotes trying to make this great news for solar seems to be a real stretch.

Of the 3,204 MW of generation canceled in September, 2,491 MW was solar and 713 MW was gas-fired. Manan Ahuja, S&P Global Platts Analytics manager of North American Power analytics, noted that the number of projects canceled was not unusual, exactly equal to last September's project cancellations.

I first saw that story at twitter:

Fake news: "jobs drying up in the Permian" -- read the story to see for yourself and if still confused, read the comments; first hint that it's fake news -- it's an "oil" story by Bloomberg

Social Security:

• for all those folks who were worried that "Social Security" would run out of money, not gonna happen; need proof? 
• politicians who make the Social Security laws are now looking at increasing benefits across the board; 
• it's going to be hard for a senior to vote "against" Pocahontas when she promises an increase of $200/month for all Social Security recipients;
• Paul Krugman: debt doesn't matter; 
• the story is not in some left-leaning tabloid; it's in The Wall Street Journal;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Investing: will Enbridge (ENB) beat estimates again? Clickbait: the article doesn't give estimates for the 3Q19 report, unless I missed that, which is very possible. So, what are estimates for ENB this quarter?

• mean estimate: 39 cents (EPS last quarter: 50 cents)
• high: 42 cents
• low: 30 cents

For the next fiscal year:

• range: $1.60 to $2.15
• mean estimate: $2.00

Do you really want to park your Tesla in your garage, attached to your McMansion? Unless you have a mother-in-law bedroom above the garage? Link here.

• Close reading of the article suggests that "over-charging" the batteries is the problem. Tesla fixed that problem by over-the-air software updates to prevent over-charging. The updates reduced the range of the involved Teslas by 25 miles. 
• Murphy's law of EVs: when you have but 20 miles range remaining, the map reveals the next EV charging station 25 miles away.

Best quote of the day, from a reader: "I hope Ruth Bader Ginsburg lives long enough to see Trup re-elected."

*********************************

For The Granddaughters

Wow, After A Long Week -- Nothing But Linda Ronstadt Tonight -- October 4, 2019

So much to post, but if I do post anything, it will simply be some incredible wells in the Bakken.

Have a great weekend.

Belated happy birthday to this Cedar Creek / Ordovician well:

• 2949, 260, Denbury Onshore, Cedar Creek Unit 8B 14X-2A-8, Cedar Creek, unitized, t8/61; cum 480K 2/20; producing for 60 years;

From an earlier post:

Recently, the oldest actively producing well, #35, was put on the AB list.

• 35, 503, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian unit H-310, Beaver Lodge, t4/52; cum 216K 7/17;
• 35, 263, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian Unit H-310, Beaver Ldoge, t3/160; cum 2.091755 million bbls;  

I had to go through a lot of permits to find the current oldest actively producing wells. These appear to be the five oldest actively producing wells. They are vertical wells with a depth of around 9,000 - 12,000 feet. They are Madison wells, and the oldest will turn 65 years old this year.

These Madison wells have each taken 50+ years to produce 500,000 bbls.

The wells:

• 498, 292, Hess, Tioga-Madison Unit L-132 HR, Tioga, t7/54; cum 534K 8/19; still active, but barley;
  
• 554, 408, Hess, Tioga-Madison Unit L-128 HR, Tioga, t8/54; cum 282K 8/19;
• 629, 159, Hess, Tioga-Madison Unit O-151 HR, Tioga, t9/54, cum 786K 2/20;
• 637, 350, Rim Operating, Hofflund 18HR, Hofflund, t12/54; cum 403K 8/19;
• 774, 156, Petro-Hunt, CMSU D0216, Charlson, t6/55; cum 475K 8/19;

It looks like #1987, Mr Woodrow Star "A" 1 in the Antelope-Sanish is finished, though it did produce 58 bbls over 4 days in 6/19; now "IA";

Then this one:

• 3983, 234, Enduro Operating, North Dakota C A 3, a Devonian well, vertical, 320-acre spacing, t1/66, cum 1.40 million bbls; 8/19; celebrated its 53rd anniversary January, 2019; 

From an old, old post, but such a good post:

********************************

Notes To The Granddaughters

I tell the oldest granddaughter to never complain about or be fearful of work. Work and play hard; work and play til you get exhausted. Go to bed exhausted. Never worry about not being able to sleep. You will sleep when you have to. Never pass up an opportunity to try something new. Don't assume you will never see a certain person again. It is amazing how often paths cross and even more interesting how often one thinks of people you've met throughout life. Treasure each one of your classmates, elementary, middle, high school, college. Never quit reading. Always count your blessings. When things get tough/bad, just tell yourself, "this, too, will end."

I remember years ago running into a childhood friend who was several years younger than I. Perhaps I was in middle school when he was in elementary school. He says the one thing he remembers most about me: I was always saying, "this, too, will end." He says that mantra (?) more than any other, got him through some tough times in life. [It's funny; he grew up to be much more successful than I.]

*********************************

Summer of '42, Michel Legrand
This song becomes even more poignant when one recalls world events in 1942, and especially while reading The Making of the Atomic Bomb, Richard Rhodes, c. 1986.

Two comments from the YouTube link regarding this song:

You should read the book, it is hilarious, from chapter 8 on. OMG, laugh-out-load funny.

Hermie was a real character, and this was his biography, all the things said and done were all real. He said the book started out as a tribute to his mother and his best friend, Oscy, aka Oscar, who was killed during the Korean war as a medic on Hermie's 24th birthday, after that he never celebrated his own birthday again.

The book and movie evolved from a tribute to Oscar and their friendship to a love story and coming of age.

Hermie originally sold the screenplay as a screenplay, then after they filmed the movie, the producers asked him if he could write a book.

Hermie finished the book in two weeks, and the book became an instant best seller. Also, the producers of the movie weren't sure if it would be a hit, and offered Hermie a percentage instead of a salary. Hermie accepted and the movie became the sleeper hit of 1973. He said the movie and book made him so much money he never had to work again just from the residuals.

Jennifer O'Neil when she acted in this film this was the exact age of Dorothy character was in real life when Hermie met her. Dorothy was a 20-21 newlywed bride. Jennifer O'Neil bought the rights to the book, in hopes of making a sequel but obviously that never happened as Mrs. O'Neil is in her seventies now.

When the movie came out in 1973, about twelve women wrote to Hermie claiming to be Dorothy. One of them was the real Dorothy, Hermie could tell because of the hand writing and the contents of the letter. This was in 1973, and the movie took place in 1942, so the real Dorothy who was then 20, would have been in her 50's. The letter suggested they let things lie, because Dorothy remarried and was happy and was a Grandmother. So neither of them revisited the past. The whole movie was real, the only thing made up was the Packet Island, which was supposed to be Nantucket Island off of Massachusetts. But the movie was filmed in California up north of San Francisco, off of Mendocino. It's funny because it was filmed on the west coast they had to film the sunset as a sunrise where Dorothy says to Hermie as she's finishing writing her letter to her husband. "What a beautiful morning!" was actually a sunset.

The second comment, I could have written:

My favorite movie theme.   I could easily identify because when I saw the film, I was in my teens, one year older than central character Hermie.  That was 43 years ago.  Forty-three years have come and gone, and no movie or theme ever affected me so poignantly.   Today this song still  brings me to tears.

Summer of '42 is one of my "top ten" movies. I have only seen it once. I cannot watch it a second time. Anyone who has had their own "summer of '42" would understand. I have had more than my share of such "summers."

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- October 2, 2019

Commission-free trades: it is surprising how fast things changed. This, in fact, was telegraphed at least a year ago (?) -- Schwab mentioned they might, in fact, go to commission-free trades quite some time ago. Schwab needs to encourage more "margin trading." LOL. I wonder if that's legal/ethical -- to encourage "margin trading"?

US shale decline in production: the link is to a Yahoo!Finance site but is in fact a "Nick Cunningham”/oilprice story. It begins:

U.S. oil production fell in July, another worrying sign for the shale industry.

The latest EIA data shows that oil output fell sharply in July, dipping by 276,000 barrels per day. The decrease can be chalked up to outages related to a hurricane that forced oil companies to temporarily idle operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Offshore Gulf of Mexico production plunged by 332,000 bpd in July.

As a result, the dip in output might easily be dismissed as a one-off aberration. However, U.S. output has stagnated in 2019, ending several years of explosive shale growth. Compared to December 2018, total U.S. production was only up 44,000 in June 2019, which essentially means that despite heady forecasts and lots of hype, U.S. shale has plateaued this year.

The premise may be correct, that (US) shale production faces a steep decline, but even in the lede it was noted that the drop in US oil production in July, 2019, had nothing to do with shale, and everything to do with weather in the Gulf of Mexico. What a doofus. 

North Dakota shale oil production: second consecutive month to set an all-time production record, July, 2019. 

Production vs "rate of growth" of production: need ot keep that in mind when reading these stories. We discussed this after the WSJ story on same subject just a couple days ago.

Anyway, enough of this.

Market: looks like another huge "down day" for the market.

Automotive sales: Investor's Business Daily yesterday, October 1, 2019. Asian carmakers' sales "plunge" -- American automakers data due out today (?).  The link will take you to an article behind a paywall. The lede: the Asian carmakers saw sales "plummet" in September, reporting double-digit declines in "higher-priced" SUVs and trucks. Doesn't surprise me. The only thing that surprised me is how long this took. I don't know about you, but I find prices of vehicles these days exorbitant.

Tesla on tap.

Ford: apparently will report just before the market opens. American car makers GM and Ford (others?) report on a quarterly basis, now instead of annual. If things go really badly, will htey start reporting annually? Ford scheduled to report 3Q19 earnings October 23, 2019. At link, note this: ACM = after market close. 

**********************************

Notes For The Granddaughters

Two articles to which I might come back. Came across these articles while reading a book on insects. 

Human anatomy: anatomy of the anterolateral ligament (ALL) of the knee. First discovered / reported in 1879, but article "lost" and the ALL unknown to physicians, et al, until "re-discovered in 2013. Researchers still do not agree on what the ALL does. Wiki entry here. Segond fracture here. 

Antibiotics: the second article is based on a medieval concoction that kills 90% of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) -- from a 2015 "throw-away article in New Scientist. Researchers still don't know why the concoction works. MRSA is associated with the group of "flesh-eating bacteria." Yuch!

Global warming? The science is settled. And expert du jour? St Greta from Sweden.

Perfect timing. From a reader, link here.

St Greta: one card short of a full deck.