Tuesday, October 18, 2016

GDP Now Forecast For 3Q16 Drops Below 2% --- October 18, 2016

GDP Now:
Latest forecast, October 14, 2016: 1.9 percent.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 1.9 percent on October 14, down from 2.1 percent on October 7.
The forecast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.9 percent to 2.6 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau. 
The next update is tomorrow!

Recent Silver Coin Purchase -- FWIW

From JM Bullion:

The Royal Canadian Mint’s Canadian Wildlife Series coins consisted of six individual designs on 1 oz., .9999 pure, silver coins. All of the coins in the series had a face value of $5 (CAD) that was backed by the Canadian government. The release schedule for the coins in the series consisted of two coins released each year over a three-year period.
Each animal chosen to represent Canadian wildlife on the coins holds a special place in the heart of Canadians, and has deep roots in the vast frozen tundras and wooded forests of the country.
Each of the six coins in the original Canadian Wildlife Series was limited to a mintage of 1 million bullion coins. The relatively limited mintage of these coins, their short, three-year production run, and the one-time designs made the original coins in the series immensely popular. By the time the final coins were released in 2013, demand for the products was off the charts.
I sort of doubt the demand was "off the charts." The coins were selling for not much more than bullion. LOL. 

Minor Spill At Treater Site Being Cleaned Up In Mountrail County -- October 18, 2016

From PennEnergy:
  • 3,000 gallons of oil and saltwater (about 70 bbls)
  • spill occurred at a site operated by Arsenal Energy USA Inc near Stanley, ND
  • treater (separates and conditions oil-gas-saltwater mixtures prior to transportation) 
The Apple Page

It appears that Apple will be updating/refreshing its computers. Rumors are that Apple will be removing all slots (including all older USB slots and the SD card slot) and replacing those slots with four USB-C slots. For those requiring the old slots, click here.

This is going to get a lot of negative press, but again, Apple is moving the industry forward. Good for them. Courage.

Night Out On The Town

Sophia in front of a Super Nash, downtown Grapevine, Friday night, October 14, 2016.

Enjoying mussels and French fries at our favorite French restaurant in Texas.

I had the mussels and frites. Sophia had a huge slice of "Le Bombe."

The best part of the evening, other than the French fries, was blowing out all the candles on the tables. LOL. And, yes, she was having a bad hair day. It was a humid evening and we had been running up and down Main Street.

Seventeen Bakken Permits Renewed In North Dakota; PDVSA Could Default As Early As Next Week -- My Hunch: One Big Bluff; Update On The ObamaCare Trainwreck -- October 18, 2016

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3267190184186

No wells coming off confidential list Wednesday.

Three new permits:
  • Operator: Oasis
  • Field: Siverston (McKenzie)
  • Comments: permits for a 3-well pad, Patsy, section 17-151-98 
Seventeen (17) permits renewed:
  • CLR (11): three Elveida permits and three Bliss permits, all in Divide County; three Cuskelly permits in Dunn Count; two Boulder Federal permits in McKenzie County
  • Whiting (2): two niemitalo permits in Mountrail County
  • QEP (2): two MHA permits in Dunn County
  • Petro-Hunt: one Hoiby permit in Mountrail County
  • EOG: one  West Clark permit in McKenzie County
No DUCs reported as being completed

The 2017 Trainwreck

Finalized rates for big health insurance plans around the country show the magnitude of the challenge facing the Obama administration as it seeks to stabilize the insurance market under the Affordable Care Act in its remaining weeks in office.
Market leaders that are continuing to sell coverage through HealthCare.gov or a state equivalent have been granted average premium increases of 30% or more in Alabama, Delaware, Hawaii, Kansas, Mississippi and Texas, according to information published by state regulators and on a federal site designed to highlight rate increases of 10% or more.
In states including Arizona, Illinois, Montana, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Tennessee, the approved rate increases for the market leader top 50%.
In New Mexico, the Blue Cross Blue Shield plan agreed to resume selling plans through the online exchanges after sitting out last year, but has been allowed to increase rates 93% on their 2015 level.
Dominant insurers in Connecticut, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland and Oregon have been allowed to raise premiums by 20% or more, and rate increases from similarly situated carriers in Colorado, Florida and Idaho are brushing up against that threshold.
Does anyone even care any more? At least you can keep your insurance plan if you like it.

HillaryCare will solve problem overnight: Federal government will be payer of last resort for those unable to find "affordable" rates. By executive order.

Tic, Tic, Tic: Venezuela's Giant Oil Company Could Fail Next Week

Link here.  Probably a bluff. The company wants its debt repayment schedule to be delayed three .... years. One would think that if PDVSA defaults, the government default won't be far behind.

Sway, Dean Martin
Connecting The Dots -- Or Note

I'm sure I'm completely wrong on this one, but it's kind of fun. One of my favorite movies is Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. One of the supporting characters is Toby Esterhase, "a self-serving Hungarian refugee hungry for promotion." There are a number of "interpretations" for this particular name.

Today, while reading something inconsequential, I came across the "Dreyfus Affair" -- which I finally understand after all these years -- and then discovered this name: Ferdinand Walsin Esterhazy, "an officer in the French Army from 1870 to 1898. He gained notoriety as a spy for the German Empire and the actual perpetrator of the act of treason of which Captain Alfred Dreyfus was wrongfully accused and convicted in 1894 (see Dreyfus affair)."

The names are too similar to be completely coincidental. But perhaps they are.