Apparently Someone Missed The Three-Day Forecast -- June 21, 2018; Long-Term Forecast -- Arctic Sea Ice Volume Growing At Alarming Rates

Updates

June 27, 2018: Arctic Sea almost completely frozen over. It's summer in the northern hemisphere. Source here.

Original Post 

Pardon the interruption. I was going to post this "growing ice" story at the bottom of this post but in certain respects it's more important than the Garrison story.

Huge correction: a huge "thank you" to a reader. I posted this as an "Antarctic" story originally -- no wonder I was confused. It's my understanding that the Antarctic is declining a bit this year, so when I saw the story below, I was confused. Then a reader noted that this was an article on the Arctic and not the Antarctic. It's been corrected.  

I've been following the Antarctic/Arctic ice story this year closer than usual. We're getting a lot of conflicting information -- apparently it depends which source one uses to follow the Antarctic/Arctic ice volume. This story and the graphic below pertains to the Arctic.

This is from the recognized best source -- the DMI -- the Danish Meteorological Institute. In addition to the graphic, there is an explanation why the story is so confusing this year -- lots of "fake news."

The blackest line (on the chart below) shows current Arctic sea-ice volume. Note that it is greater than in 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and is on track to break the 2004 to 2014 mean.

“Actually the current news should not be that there is less sea-ice, but more,” says ready Caleb Shaw. “How much more? The DMI “volume” graph suggests there is 4500 km³ more ice this year than last year. But the media? Crickets.”

Crickets.

The graphic:

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Back to the Bakken

 
Three days ago, it was reported that the US Army Corps of Engineers would be increasing the Garrison Dam release from the usual 44,000 cfs to 52,000 cfs.

We know that the earth is going to be 0.2 degrees warmer a hundred years from now but apparently we all missed the forecast for more rain.

This from The Bismarck Tribune:

Operations manager Todd Lindquist confirmed Wednesday evening that water releases from Garrison Dam will be increased again from 52,000 cubic feet per second, equal to 388,987 gallons per second, to 60,000 cfs by Saturday. On Wednesday, the flows had reached 48,700 cfs, according to a daily report by the corps.

Just on Monday, the levels were expected to reach the 12-foot stage overnight near Bismarck, but now those water levels will reach 13 feet by Saturday, Lindquist said. 

“The increased flows from the Garrison Dam represent a real concern for downstream communities,” said Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., on Wednesday. “We need to ensure the entire river system is being managed in a way that prevents an unexpected rise in river levels, that includes releases from Garrison Dam as well as from dams further downstream."

And this from MyNDNow:

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers today made it official today: Garrison Dam water releases will increase to 60,000 cfs by Friday.

In a statement issued this morning, the Corps' Missouri River Basin Water Management Division said releases will be stepped up from 52,000 cfs to 60,000 cfs over the next three days.

The Garrison reservoir is currently at 1851.6 feet. It is expected to peak near 1852.4 feet in the next two weeks as runoff from the remaining mountain snow pack tapers off.

The 60,000 cfs release rate is expected to continue into mid-July.

The increased release means the river stage near Bismarck will rise from 11.5 feet to 13 feet.

Flood stage at Bismarck is 14.5 feet.

Garrison releases are being increased due to recent rains in the area from Fort Peck to Garrison.

“Widespread rains across much of the Missouri River Basin have increased inflows into the System dams and have also increased flows on tributaries downstream of the System,” said John Remus, Chief of the Missouri River Basin Water Management Division.

One can't make this stuff up.  

And then more, from Don. Thank you. This is from MyNDNow.com. 

The rising levels of the Missouri River. The water level has raised concern as the Army Corps of Engineers continues to release more water from the Garrison Dam. For a lot of North Dakotans, it's creating fear of a repeat of the 2011 flood.

Our Malique Rankin has been researching water releases from the Army Corp.
She compares and breaks down for us how those numbers look in 2018, in comparison to 2011.

During the 2011 flood, on May 30th, water was released from the dam at 85,000 CFS.

To put that in perspective, that's 25,000 CFS more than the rate we are expected to hit this weekend. In 2011, releases hit a high on June 17th, at 150,000 cubic feet per second. Releases were rising on a near daily basis for weeks in June. 

There is a tag for the 2011 flood at the bottom of the blog. 

So, We Should Not Expect Flooding In The Bakken This Spring, Huh? Missouri River Spring Run-Off

The Billings Gazette is reporting:

Based on the current soil moisture and snowpack conditions, runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, is forecast to be 26.1 million acre feet in 2014, up slightly from the 25.1 MAF recorded in 2013, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. 

Normal runoff is 25.2 MAF.

“Although drought conditions in the Missouri River Basin improved significantly in 2013, the Missouri River mainstem reservoir levels remain below normal due to the lingering effects of the 2012 drought,” said Jody Farhat, chief of the Corps' Water Management Division.

The upper three reservoirs, Fort Peck in Eastern Montana, Garrison in North Dakota, and Oahe in South Dakota, remain 5 to 11 feet below the desired operating levels.”

I'm always amazed at the preciseness of these forecasts.

Aerial Photos and Video of Flooding South of Williston -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here.

There was a story yesterday that the flooding is receding and likelihood of flooding in the city of Williston has lessened.

Image #24 is of the Halliburton Vancouver Olympics Housing Unit east of Williston, along the Little Muddy River.

Images #16 - #21 are of White Bridge northeast of Williston. When I visited, the road was open again; the flooding over the road probably comes and goes, but should be resolved by now.

Video of flooding south of Williston along US-85 found on YouTube:

Flooding south of Williston, North Dakota, on US-85

Zoos Around The Country Helping Out Minot Zoo -- Due To Flooding -- Penguins Already There; Bears Eager to Arrive

Great human interest story.

They came 507 miles by truck, 13 of them packed in small plastic pet crates, a flood-ravaged home behind them and a capital city before them.

The African penguins from Minot, N.D., waddled into their public display at Como Zoo in St. Paul on Thursday morning, just a few of the approximately 230 animals evacuated from the Roosevelt Park Zoo that now is under 4 to 14 feet of water.

They zipped around a 5-foot-deep pool, slid down faux rockwork and loudly hee-hawed like donkeys (hence their colloquial name, jackass penguins) as senior zookeeper Allison Jungheim slipped silvery fish into their gaping beaks.

The penguins, which include the Como-hatched male, Squirt, join three bears and 13 frogs evacuated to Como Zoo. The penguins were the first to go on display; the bears are quarantined and will follow in about a week.

No, Virginia, they are not fattening up the penguins for the polar bears.

Video of Lake Darling, Souris River Flooding, Minot, North Dakota. AMTRAK Across ND Suspended Until Further Notice

It's just a minute long, but may interest some folks.


Link here. I doubt the link will last long.

Meanwhile, Amtrak across North Dakota has been suspended until further notice. 

Rigzone: North Dakota Floods Idle Five Rigs, Shut Down 45 Wells

Link here.

Bad weather, flooding and road restrictions are disrupting oil production in North Dakota, shutting down the transportation by rail of 50,000 barrels a day of crude, a state official said.

"No one was prepared to deal with floods that are breaking records set 130 years ago," said Lynn D. Helms, director of the North Dakota Industrial Commission's Department of Mineral Resources said in an e-mail sent late Monday. Helms said the temporary shutdown of the rail transportation will last until it can be re-routed west, but didn't give an estimate as to when that might occur.

The weather has forced the shut in of 45 wells and idled five drilling rigs and is delaying the arrival of service crews to 500 wells waiting to be fractured, Helms said.

Significant, but not overwhelming.

Mouse River Flooding -- Canadian Border To Minot -- No Wells Involved

Update

I was wrong in the post below. I should have written "minimal" activity rather than "no" oil activity. Regardless, the flooding has had some impact, but mostly with regard to railroad oil transport.

Original Post

I could be wrong, but looking at the NDIC GIS map server, the Mouse River coming down from Canada does not go through any oil fields in North Dakota except for three minor fields, none of which have any new activity. The three fields: Donnybrook, Newporte, and Northgate.

South and east of Minot where the Mouse River flows out of Minot, there is no oil activity.

Headwaters of the Missouri -- Where It All Starts

Link here.

A nice blog on the headwaters of the Missouri River.

Water from Hell Roaring Creek will be barreling through the Oahe Dam, hundreds of miles from where it started. And this creek, like much of the Missouri, is flooding. The creek had pushed its banks and was running through the low meadow surrounding it. And hey, I’m no weather or water guru, but there is a lot of snow up there for this time of year. It’s all everyone we ran into was talking about. I’ve spent summers up there every year of my life since I was just a bump in my mom’s belly. And I’ve never seen that much snow in June. Especially not mid-June. May, maybe. The west is a big mess of water this spring and summer.

Beautiful pictures; nice post. 

North Dakota Flooding -- Garrison Dam, Depth, Inflow and Outflow; Minot Photos

Garrison Dam inflow, depth, and releases:

Source:  http://www.greatplainsexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Missouri_River_Depth-for-web1.jpg

If I read the "squiggles" correctly, it looks like there is a new spike in the inflow of water into the Garrison Reservoir.

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Elsewhere: Minot flood photos.

Flooding in Western North Dakota

Links

US Army Corps of Engineers

Photos:

• June 1, 2011

Updates

August 31, 2013: Update on repairs --

Work is also being done on the dam's massive flood control gates, all 28 of them. The gates have the capacity to release 660,000 cfs at maximum operating pool of 1,854 feet. A record level of 1,854.8 feet occurred in 1975. Lake Sakakawea reached 1,854.6 feet on July 1, 2011.

"The gates had never been used prior to 2011," noted Lindquist. "We're conducting testing to insure the welds and structural integrity of the gates. We'll be painting them and replacing seals. Meanwhile, everything remains operational."

Corps preparing for rest of summer, looking to 2012. High levels will persist; wet areas receding very slowly, and still huge amounts of water to pass through. July 29, 2011.

Leak in the Dike At Williston; Corps Closes Levee to the Public, June 1, 2011

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has restricted all public access to a seven-mile portion of the levee around Williston.

Corps officials said crews have been working to fix a small "boil", or leak in the levee as well as conduct inspections.

Wolf Point, Montana, to see flooding, Billings Gazette, May 31, 2011.


In the middle of the worse flooding on the Missouri in its history, the US Army Corps of Engineers found time (May 31, 2011) to release the results of this study:

The Army Corps of Engineers has released a final environmental study on the impact of building nesting habitat for endangered birds on the Missouri River.

Parts of the river between Fort Peck, Mont., and Sioux City, Iowa, are designated as critical habitat for the piping plover and interior least tern. Both species build nests on sandbars and sandy shoreline.

Something tells me the Corps releasing water from Ft Peck dam has inundated all those sandbars. May 31, 2011.

First time ever: Corps Will Raise Spillway Gates at Garrison; Public Cleared Out, May 31, 2011

From a Bismarck resident, Sunday, May 30, 2011:

"...Many of the homes near the river are already 3 feet deep in water and they haven’t even started the really high water releases yet from the dam.  They were releasing 12 cubic feet per second....today they are 120 cfs and will go to the max of 150 csf in a week.  They are estimating about $300,000,000 worth of homes will be lost.  They are also saying there will be water filling the basements for 2 months.......and the whole town could lose water and sewage (in 3 to 4 weeks).   The National Guard is here plus about 8,000 to 10,000 people are volunteering with sandbagging, etc.  They have moved a lot of the animals from the zoo....can’t move the big Kodiac bears as they are about 20 years old and would not survive the anesthetics.  So, if it gets too bad they will destroy them.  It is really sad here.  Will likely hit the national news in a week or two when the pictures are more shocking..."

May 30, 2011: South Dakota flooding due to release of water at Garrison Dam. Cities affected: Pierre, Yankton.

From Neil (again, not sure exactly when these numbers apply, due to fact, I got to e-mail late, and still catching up:

Fort Peck power house 10,000
Fort Peck spillway 40,000
Milk River 10,000
Yellowstone 75,000 - unsure if this will maintain.
Expected gauge at Culbertson after a few days 60,000-probably Sunday or so.
Expected gauge are Williston after a few days 135,000
I am also told that the Milk River watershed in Canada has seen some major rain and that might bump the Milk substantially during these high releases.

Sunday, May 29, 2011: Corps to release more water at Garrison.

Neil sent this note, Saturday evening, May 28:

On Thursday Fort Peck will go to 50,000 cfs. With the Milk River and others the flow at Williston bridge will be 140,000 cfs.

Gregg sent this note, Saturday, May 28, 5:05 p.m.:

The corp of engineers,state,city, and county officials are having a briefing, 5:30 Bismarck time. KFYR radio will be broadcast it over the internet.
Its a real drama playing out down there.

http://www.kfyr.com/main.html

Original Post

For those interested in a "almost-instantaneous" information on water flowing into Sakakawea Lake (behind Garrison Dam, North Dakota) and water being released, this is some interesting information.

I have to thank "Don" for putting all this information together and sending it forward:

The total inflow to Garrison/Lake Sakakawea from these three (3) sources is (as I) type: 121,400 cubic feet  per second.

The release is 90,000 cubic feet per second.

These flows will go up or down. But there is only 4 ft in the Lake Sakakawea before it breaches the spillway locks on the east side of Garrison Dam. 

76,900 cft per sec from the Yellowstone River;  25,200 from the Missouri (Big MO), and 19,300 from the Little Missouri.

The Yellowstone River near Sidney, Montana:

http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/mt/nwis/uv?site_no=06329500

BIG Missouri near Culbertson, Montana:

http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/mt/nwis/uv?site_no=06185500

Little Missouri in Medora, North Dakota:

http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/nd/nwis/uv?site_no=06336000

I cannot even imagine 30,000 cubic feet of water per second net inflow into the lake. Per second.