Thursday, January 26, 2023

Eight New Permits; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 26, 2023

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $81.18.

Natural gas: $2.887.

Eight new permits, #39597 - #39604, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR (4); Hess (4)
  • Fields: Pembroke (McKenzie); Beaver Lodge (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for four BL-Iverson B wells, NWNE 9-155-95; 
      • to be sited 2207 FEL land between 275 FNL and 374 FNL
    • CLR has permits for four Brooks wells, SEESW 9-149-98; 
      • to be sited 1050 FSL and betwweeeen 2436 FWL and 2532 FWL

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38703, 2,808, MRO, Vernon 44-19TFH, Dunn County;
  • 38849, 2,368, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-5HR, McKenzie County;

The Grayson Mill Porter Wells In Alexander Oil Field -- January 26, 2023

First post: September 26, 2022.

Great example of how fast things can move in the Bakken when permitted by the state.

The Grayson Mill Porter wells in Alexander oil field. 

They are all on DRL status which means they are in the process of being prepared to be drilled, or already being drilled, or already drilled to depth, but not completed/fracked. 

  • 39265, drl, Grayson Mill, Porter 26-36 XW 1H, a line section well; Alexander, 
  • 39266, drl, Grayson Mill, Porter 26-36 3H, Alexander, 
  • 39267, drl, Grayson Mill, Porter 26-36 4H, Alexander, 
  • 39268, drl, Grayson Mill, Porter 26-36 5H, Alexander, 
  • 39269, drl, Grayson Mill, Porter 26-36 6H, Alexander, 
  • 39270, drl, Grayson Mill, Porter 26-36 XE 1H, a line section well; Alexander,

Nearest existing wells that were drilled years ago and are actively producing:

  • 23319, 1,271, Grayson Mill, Porter 35-26 1TFH, Alexander, t1/13; cum 159K 11/22;
  • 23320, 3,611, Grayson Mill, Porter 35-26 1H, Alexander, t1/13; cum 218K 11/22;

The maps:

The new Porter wells in relation to the existing Porter wells:

The rest of the maps:



The Investor Page -- January 26, 2023

Updates

Later, 6:39 p.m. ET: "new money" allocation / investment

  • my current "new money" investment allotment:
    • blue-chip, Berkshire (BRK) worthy, dividend-growth: 40%
    • beaten down tech: 20%
    • energy (mostly oil, Permian): 30%
    • mRNA (Big Pharma): 5%
    • Daimler truck: 5%
  • After today (the market in general; GDP, 4Q22; Schwab conference), moving toward, and likely effective March, 2023
    • blue-chip, Berkshire (BRK) worthy, dividend-growth: 40%
    • beaten down tech: 30%
    • energy (mostly oil, Permian): 00%
    • ?: 20%
    • mRNA (Big Pharma): 5%
    • Daimler truck: 5%
  • For February, 2023, the changeover / transition month
    • blue-chip, Berkshire (BRK) worthy, dividend-growth: 00
    • beaten down tech: 100%
    • energy (mostly oil, Permian): 00%
    • mRNA (Big Pharma): 00%
    • Daimler truck: 00%

Original Post

Most of this was posted earlier. ICYMI.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.     

Intel: analyst can't even explain it.

  • earnings release awful
  • shares drop more than 7% after hours:
  • "never seen anything like this before"
  • anyone following the blog could have seen this coming
  • started with posts regarding 10nm and 7nm chips 
  • went right off a cliff; this is not going to be a one-off


Raising dividends, announced so far today
:

  • ADM (Archer-Daniels)
  • Murphy Oil

Later, 3:04 p.m. ET: for investors. 

  • Comment: looking at the market today suggests to me that those "in the FOMO camp" are finally realizing they "MO."

Later, 3:30 p.m. ET: for investors. The Dow is not up all that much today in the big scheme of things, but energy is going through the roof. Having said that, XLE was not particularly remarkable, again pointing out to folks that individuals can do much better if they a) have a plan; b) stick to the plan; and, c) pay attention to what's going on in the world.

Two examples

  • VLO: up over 4% today; 
  • XOM: up 3.7% today
  • CVX: up 4.5% today;
  • MPC: up 3.6% today;
  • most of the others are running one- to two-percent in the green today.
The more I "see," the more I think "investors" conflate / confuse the terms used to define the stock market with terms used to define the economic cycle.

NDIC Hearing Docket -- February, 2023

Link here

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.  

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

See also cases of interest here.

Thursday.
February 9, 2023
One case.

The case. This is a case, not a permit:

  • 29836, Resonance Energy; pooling; Landa-Madison; Bottineau;

Wednesday
February 22, 2023
Ten pages.

 The cases. These are cases, not permits:

  • 29837, Petro-Hunt, Keene-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; sections 20/21/28/29/32/33-153-95, one well, McKenzie County
  • 29838, Petro-Hunt, Little Knife-Bakken, establish eight overlapping 1920-acre units, ...... 3 wells on each unit; 24 wells, Billings County;
  • 29839, Petro-Hunt, Little Knife-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; sections 18/19/30-144-97; three wells; Dunn County;
  • 29840, Petro-Hunt, Little Knife and/or Crooked Creek-Bakken; establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; section 31-144-97 and sections 6/7-143-97; three wells; Dunn County;
  • 29841, Petro-Hunt Dakota, #15013, temporary spacing, SENW section 9-148-102; McKenzie;
  • 29842, Kraken, Green Lake and/or Burg-Bakken; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; sections 12/13/24-159-100 and sections 7/18/19-159-99; one well; Williams County;
  • 29843, Kraken, Hebron-Bakken, establish two overlapping units; i) all of section 34 and W/2/W/2 of section 35-156-104; and, sections 3/10 and the W/2/W/2 of sections 2/11-155-104; and, iii) all of  sections 15/22/27 and the W/2/W/2 of sections 14/23/26-155-104; one well each unit; Williams County;
  • 29844, Whiting, Foreman Butte-Bakken; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; sections 1/2/11/12/13/14-150-103, one well; McKenzie
  • 29845, Oasis, Todd-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 29/30/31/32-154-101; one well; Williams and McKenzie counties;
  • 29846, Hess, Wheellock-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; sections 16/17/20/21- and sections 28/29/32/33-156-98; one well on each; Williams County;
  • 29847, Hess, Wheelock-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 2560-acre unit, sections 17/20/29/32-156-98; ten wells on that unit; Williams County;
  • 29848, Hess, commingling;
  • 29849, Hess, commingling;
  • 29850, Hess, pooling;
  • 29851, Hess, pooling;
  • 29852,Hess, pooling;
  • 29853, Grayson Mill; commingling;
  • 29854, Oasis, pooling;
  • 29855, BR, pooling;
  • 29856, BR, pooling;
  • 29857, BR, pooling;
  • 29858, BR, commingling;
  • 29859, BR, commingling;
  • 29860, BR, commingling;
  • 29861, BR, commingling;
  • 29862, Whiting, pooling;
  • 29863, MRO, pooling;
  • 29864, MRO, pooling;
  • 29865, MRO, Jim Creek-Bakken, amend; five wells on a standup 1280-acre unit; sections 9/16-145-96; Dunn County;
  • 29866: Kim Shade, conversion #13375 to freshwater well;
  • 29867; Kim Shade, conversion #16058, to freshwater well;

Thursday
February 23, 2023
Six pages

The cases. These are cases, not permits:

  • 29868, Spotted Hawk, Van Hook-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3520-acre unit, sections 16/17/18/19/20 and N/2 of section 2-150-91; eight wells; McLean, Dunn counties.
  • 29869, Enerplus, setback variance;
  • 29870, KODA Resources, Fertile Valley-Bakken, .... 15 wells; Divide County.
  • 29871, KODA Resources, Daneville and/or Fertile Valley-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, section 32-161-102 and sections 2/11-160-103; one well, Divide County.
  • 29872, CLR, fracking water reservoir, exception, Micahlucas wells.
  • 29873, Grayson Mill, pooling.
  • 29874, EOG, pooling.
  • 29875, EOG, pooling,
  • 29876, Jordan Exploration, pooling, Stonevieww-Winnipegosis, N/2 section 19-161-94. Burke County;
  • 29877, risk penalty legalese;
  • 29878, risk penalty legalese;
  • 29879, risk penalty legalese;
  • 29880, Slawson, commingling;
  • 29881, CLR, commingling;
  • 29882, XTO, commingling;
  • 29883, XTO, commingling;
  • 29884, WPX, commingling;

Thursday
February 23, 2023
Supplement
One page

The cases. These are cases, not permits:

  • 29885, Enerplus, McGregory Buttes and/or South Fork-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, sections 4/5/8/9/16/17-148-93; one well, Dunn County.
  • 29886, Slawson, pooling.

Off The Net -- WTI Up -- January 26, 2023

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Intel: analyst can't even explain it.

  • earnings release awful
  • shares drop more than 7% after hours:
  • "never seen anything like this before"
  • anyone following the blog could have seen this coming
  • started with posts regarding 10nm and 7nm chips 
  • went right off a cliff; this is not going to be a one-off


Raising dividends, announced so far today
:

  • ADM (Archer-Daniels)
  • Murphy Oil

Later, 3:04 p.m. ET: for investors. 

  • Comment: looking at the market today suggests to me that those "in the FOMO camp" are finally realizing they "MO."

Later, 3:30 p.m. ET: for investors. The Dow is not up all that much today in the big scheme of things, but energy is going through the roof. Having said that, XLE was not particularly remarkable, again pointing out to folks that individuals can do much better if they a) have a plan; b) stick to the plan; and, c) pay attention to what's going on in the world.

Two examples

  • VLO: up over 4% today; 
  • XOM: up 3.7% today
  • CVX: up 4.5% today;
  • MPC: up 3.6% today;
  • most of the others are running one- to two-percent in the green today.

The more I "see," the more I think "investors" conflate / confuse the terms used to define the stock market with terms used to define the economic cycle.

The Amazing Bakken -- It's All About TOC -- Technology Will Catch Up -- January 26, 2023

Re-posting.

Recent production below. Full production at this post.

Note: this well drilled in 2008, thirteen years ago. It was a lousy well. And then it's production jumped about a year ago.

This well, thirteen years old, will produce 50% of its oil production in six months in its thirteen year.

Look at initial production -- at the very bottom of this post.

This is not a one-off. One can find them everywhere.

This well was first drilled in 2008

Total production for this well:

  • 302,036 bbls crude oil;
  • it was first drilled back in 2008, fifteen years ago;
  • and, in five months in the past year or so, this well has produced: 130,675 bbls
  • 130,675 / 302,036 = 43%
30788
34679
1722
51
0
0
0
3907
5069
6372
11550
16004
20533

Well of interest:

  • 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 302K 11/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2022303078830897293544304741894945
BAKKEN10-2022313467934024472584307542642214
BAKKEN9-20225172216755530218321792
BAKKEN8-2022151790000
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-202217390742251511482446670
BAKKEN3-202217506948182902519149790
BAKKEN2-202224637266542750824479460
BAKKEN1-2022311155011608583514730143110
BAKKEN12-2021311600416229896919237188180
BAKKEN11-20213020533203411956322195217900
BAKKEN10-20216331930195476328832070
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-2021110001000
BAKKEN6-2021304575861178884960
BAKKEN5-202131500524829595400
BAKKEN4-202130477576788975050
BAKKEN3-202131515312939255060
BAKKEN2-2021284665582137543790
BAKKEN1-202131533936778794600
BAKKEN12-2020315140788834640

Look at initial production below, compared to recent production, thirteen years later:

BAKKEN11-20083035723000629429042900
BAKKEN10-200829395137101051379337930
BAKKEN9-20083039043883839323132310
BAKKEN8-200820292429241199239423940
BAKKEN7-200824503950141430455545550
BAKKEN6-200830575158983530413641360
BAKKEN5-20081207451682000
BAKKEN4-200824114062996425250
BAKKEN3-20081900552000

Biden's Energy Policy: No More Drilling -- January 26, 2023

CVX will support the president's energy policy.

CVX won't use al of their profits for more drilling -- will return some of that cash to shareholders: $75-billion-share buyback and an increase in the quarterly dividend from $1.42 to $1.51, a six percent increase.

By the way, NSC also increased its quarterly dividend. Remember: we're in a recession.  NSC is a railroad.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.     

Semis: The Trucks, Not The Chips -- Demand Is Surging -- January 26, 2023

Semis: remember, we're in a recession. Link here.

Semitruck makers have seen record demand for trucks in recent months and have pivoted from managing extremely tight supply constraints to filling orders now that parts are starting to flow more freely.

“Demand for trucks is, I would say, unprecedented,” said David Carson, SVP of sales and marketing for Daimler Trucks North America. “We’ve seen an incredible demand going through Covid and continuing well into [this year]. That demand actually exceeds our capacity and it exceeds the capacity of the entire industry.”

Somewhere between 95,000 and 284,000 new semitrucks are sold in America each year, and as of late 2022 sales were on track to be on the high end of that, said J.D. Power analyst Chris Visser. On average, a semi with a sleeper cabin will cost about $150,000. A fully loaded one can run above $200,000.

Four companies dominate U.S. truck manufacturing: Daimler Trucks, Paccar, Volvo and Traton. Daimler is the biggest: It has about 40% market share, mostly through its Freightliner brand.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.     

US Economy -- Remember, We're In A Recession -- January 26, 2023

"The downturn did not happen on time." -- CNBC anchor.

Semis: remember, we're in a recession. Link here.

To JPow: those Fed rates are really starting to show some effect. LOL. -- Jim Cramer.

Record results: Tesla. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

  • Musk: "I think we are seeing deflation."
  • Musk: no fan of JPow.

Unexpectedly: remember -- we're in a recession.

Breaking: 4Q22, first reading -- "better-than-expected" -- . Reminder: we're in a recession.

  • initial jobs claims 186,000 -- a new cycle low. Have to go back to April, 2022, to see numbers this low
    • despite all the headlines of all the layoffs
  • 4Q22 GDP: 2.9% vs 2.8%.
  • durable goods: very, very good; 5.6% vs 2.4%; incredibly good -- "best print since 2020."
    • Remember: we're in a recession.
  • pricing: 2.1%, down from 2.3%; have to go back to 2Q20 to see numbers this low; 
  • under 4%; very good -- I missed thee data point; will catch it later.
  • panel on CNBC
    • Liesman: 
      • living in two worlds: pretty strong economic growth right now, but lackluster future
      • the meme -- economy stops on a dime; Liesman: data suggests that's not gonna happen
      • jobs numbers just don't quit; despite all the layoffs, claims continue to drop
    • huge number 115% -- Liesman can't believe the numbers -- cars up huge; airplane orders up huge -- see "industrial space needed" below.
    • panel is agog with these huge numbers
    • now trying to explain it; says GDP will still go negative 1Q23
    •  "backward looking numbers; will only make the numbers going forward come in worse
    • doing all they can to talk the market down
    • as the panel goes on and on, it sounds more and more like an old "Muppets" skit
    • Dow liked what it saw when GDP reading announced

Reality: these numbers bring JPow's "50 basis points" back in play [remember: we're in a recession].

The US economy: headlines over the past six months -- in chronological order --

  • we're already in a recession -- people just don't know it yet: summer of 2022.
  • it's going to get much worse; the recession has just begun;
  • maybe not in a recession but when it comes, it's going to be worse on record;
  • recession will hit, but it will be shallow and short
  • JPow says "soft landing" possible
  • GDP numbers improving; maybe not as bad as we thought
  • no recession?
  • GDP report could show solid fourth-quarter growth but still signal a recession is coming; winter, 2023
  • 50 basis points back in play, February, 2023

*****************************
The Economy

I will only post a few links but I could do this all day. It's fascinating.

It started with a CNBC story yesterday.

While watching The Thomas Crowne Affair last night -- twice -- I googled ports los angeles news.

Port of New York: new threshold for empty container fee on ocean containers. 

Ports of Los Angeles: container dwell fee put on hold through November 18, 2022. New program announced October 25, 2021.

US supply chain congestion eases: carriers seek cargo. January 25, 2023:

Turning to the US west coast, they commented that: “The picture is not as bright in Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), where transit times increased by 41.7% and 24.5%, respectively, in December compared to November. That sets LAX back to a congestion level similar to last April, and LB to last June's levels. Oakland improved its average transit times by 26.4%. Vessels arriving from China and other parts of Asia were quicker to berth in Oakland than they were in LA/LB.”

Ports post strong volume: despite December drop-off. January 25, 2023. 

Despite a significant slowdown in the second half of 2022, two major West Coast ports approached the record-setting pace they had in 2021.

Port of Los Angeles officials said the facility still finished as the nation’s busiest container port for the 23rd consecutive year, processing 9,911,158 20-foot-equivalent units, down nearly 7.2% from 2021’s 10,677,609.

For December the port processed 728,871 containers, down 7.3% to 786,588 year-over-year.

Demand for industrial space? At the ports. January 19, 2023. What's driving that need for space? Cars. The report showed that the automotive industry has seen its demand increase by more than 156% since 2021 to servee an influx of electric vehicles. This correlates with huge numbers from first reading GDP -- see above.  

The report showed that the automotive industry has seen its demand increase by more than 156% since 2021 to serve an influx of electric vehicle and battery manufacturing endeavors across the country. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

And demand for construction, machinery and materials companies grew by more than 41% this year because of the oversized pipeline of commercial and residential demand for housing. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

JLL added that with companies reevaluating their existing operations and addressing the COVID-induced supply chain disruptions, demand will continue to increase for manufacturing and automotive users. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

From a macro perspective, supply chain woes continue to create backlogs at the ports. The concept and practice of reshoring have come into play, and many occupiers have placed this at the forefront of their business operations. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

Tight availability, high rents, and port congestion along the West Coast have pushed many occupiers to the Southeast region and to ports along the East Coast, such as Savannah and Charleston, which are seeing record TEU volumes. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

And don't forget about the third leg of this three-legged stool: New Orleans.

NEW ORLEANS — The pandemic-era collapse of supply chains spurred speculation that globalization was on the decline, as companies vowed to become less reliant on foreign providers of goods and services.
But if New Orleans is any example, the world is headed for less of a retreat from global trade and more of an overhaul to how it operates.
A critical gateway between the Mississippi River and global oceans, New Orleans has been an entry and exit point for the United States since before the Louisiana Purchase. The city is now betting that position will continue — and even deepen — as the world enters a new era of global integration.
The New Orleans port is one of the nation’s busiest for agricultural exports like soybeans and corn. But it has struggled to compete for the lucrative imports that are ferried on huge ships from Asia, in part because those vessels cannot fit under a local bridge. As global supply chains rearrange in the pandemic’s wake, New Orleans’ proximity to Mexico and its position on the Mississippi River could help make it a crucial stop in what many expect to be a more resilient supply chain of the future.
Executives at the New Orleans port are wagering on that transformation: They recently unveiled a plan to spend $1.8 billion on expanding the port to a new site that can handle more trade and accommodate bigger boats. That optimism about the future of trade breaks with some of the worst fears of the past few years, as pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, COVID lockdowns in China and Russia’s war with Ukraine shook confidence in the global trading system.
Policymakers and company executives vowed to become less reliant on China and to locate supply chains closer to home. That prompted predictions that the world was headed for a period of “de-globalization,” in which the trade and financial ties that have brought countries closer in recent decades would spin into reverse. So far, economic data shows few signs of such a sharp retreat. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

Anyway, do your own google search -- us ports los angeles news. I'm moving on. Remember: we're in a recession.

CVX: up almost 4% in pre-market trading.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.     

Another Great Day -- January 26, 2023

 

Semis: one word -- Daimler 

Ports: subject for the day. But first, I am taking Sophia to schooll.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $81.29.

Natural gas: $2.854.

Friday, January 27, 2023: 65 for the month; 65 for the quarter, 65 for the year
39046, conf,  CLR, Kelling 6-4H,
38917, conf,  Rampart Energy, Coteau 3
38731, conf,  Hess, EN-Neset-LW-156-94-0706H-1,
38162, conf,  Hess, BB-Budahn A-LN-150-95-0403H-1,

Thursday, January 26, 2023
: 61 for the month; 61 for the quarter, 61 for the year
39047, conf,  CLR, Kelling 7-4H1,
38583, conf, Whiting, Dexter TTT 11-26-2H,
38581, conf, Whiting, Maria TTT 11-26HU,

RBN Energy: credit system provides US refiners a way around Tier 3 specifications, part 4.

If you buy premium gasoline, you’ve probably noticed its price differential versus regular has been increasing in recent years. That is a sign of the rising value of octane, the primary yardstick of gasoline quality and price. In this blog series we’ve examined a new gasoline sulfur specification called Tier 3, which is causing complications for U.S. refiners looking to balance octane and gasoline production while still meeting the regulatory limits on sulfur. In today’s RBN blog, the fourth and final on this topic, we provide an analysis of the obscure Sulfur Credit Averaging, Banking and Trading (ABT) system, which allows refiners to buy credits to stay in compliance with the Tier 3 specs. The price of these credits quintupled in 2022, another sign of a tight octane market that will be attracting increased attention in the months and years ahead.