US Economy -- Remember, We're In A Recession -- January 26, 2023

"The downturn did not happen on time." -- CNBC anchor.

Semis: remember, we're in a recession. Link here.

To JPow: those Fed rates are really starting to show some effect. LOL. -- Jim Cramer.

Record results: Tesla. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

• Musk: "I think we are seeing deflation."
• Musk: no fan of JPow.
  

Unexpectedly: remember -- we're in a recession.

Breaking: 4Q22, first reading -- "better-than-expected" -- . Reminder: we're in a recession.

• initial jobs claims 186,000 -- a new cycle low. Have to go back to April, 2022, to see numbers this low
• despite all the headlines of all the layoffs
  
• 4Q22 GDP: 2.9% vs 2.8%.
  
• durable goods: very, very good; 5.6% vs 2.4%; incredibly good -- "best print since 2020."
• Remember: we're in a recession.
  
• pricing: 2.1%, down from 2.3%; have to go back to 2Q20 to see numbers this low; 
• under 4%; very good -- I missed thee data point; will catch it later.
  
• panel on CNBC
• Liesman: 
• living in two worlds: pretty strong economic growth right now, but lackluster future
• the meme -- economy stops on a dime; Liesman: data suggests that's not gonna happen
• jobs numbers just don't quit; despite all the layoffs, claims continue to drop
• huge number 115% -- Liesman can't believe the numbers -- cars up huge; airplane orders up huge -- see "industrial space needed" below.
  
• panel is agog with these huge numbers
• now trying to explain it; says GDP will still go negative 1Q23
•  "backward looking numbers; will only make the numbers going forward come in worse
• doing all they can to talk the market down
• as the panel goes on and on, it sounds more and more like an old "Muppets" skit
• Dow liked what it saw when GDP reading announced
  

Reality: these numbers bring JPow's "50 basis points" back in play [remember: we're in a recession].

The US economy: headlines over the past six months -- in chronological order --

• we're already in a recession -- people just don't know it yet: summer of 2022.
  
• it's going to get much worse; the recession has just begun;
• maybe not in a recession but when it comes, it's going to be worse on record;
• recession will hit, but it will be shallow and short
• JPow says "soft landing" possible
• GDP numbers improving; maybe not as bad as we thought
• no recession?
• GDP report could show solid fourth-quarter growth but still signal a recession is coming; winter, 2023
• 50 basis points back in play, February, 2023
  

*****************************
The Economy

I will only post a few links but I could do this all day. It's fascinating.

It started with a CNBC story yesterday.

While watching The Thomas Crowne Affair last night -- twice -- I googled ports los angeles news.

Port of New York: new threshold for empty container fee on ocean containers. 

Ports of Los Angeles: container dwell fee put on hold through November 18, 2022. New program announced October 25, 2021.

US supply chain congestion eases: carriers seek cargo. January 25, 2023:

Turning to the US west coast, they commented that: “The picture is not as bright in Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), where transit times increased by 41.7% and 24.5%, respectively, in December compared to November. That sets LAX back to a congestion level similar to last April, and LB to last June's levels. Oakland improved its average transit times by 26.4%. Vessels arriving from China and other parts of Asia were quicker to berth in Oakland than they were in LA/LB.”

Ports post strong volume: despite December drop-off. January 25, 2023. 

Despite a significant slowdown in the second half of 2022, two major West Coast ports approached the record-setting pace they had in 2021.

Port of Los Angeles officials said the facility still finished as the nation’s busiest container port for the 23rd consecutive year, processing 9,911,158 20-foot-equivalent units, down nearly 7.2% from 2021’s 10,677,609.

For December the port processed 728,871 containers, down 7.3% to 786,588 year-over-year.

Demand for industrial space? At the ports. January 19, 2023. What's driving that need for space? Cars. The report showed that the automotive industry has seen its demand increase by more than 156% since 2021 to servee an influx of electric vehicles. This correlates with huge numbers from first reading GDP -- see above.  

The report showed that the automotive industry has seen its demand increase by more than 156% since 2021 to serve an influx of electric vehicle and battery manufacturing endeavors across the country. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

And demand for construction, machinery and materials companies grew by more than 41% this year because of the oversized pipeline of commercial and residential demand for housing. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

JLL added that with companies reevaluating their existing operations and addressing the COVID-induced supply chain disruptions, demand will continue to increase for manufacturing and automotive users. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

From a macro perspective, supply chain woes continue to create backlogs at the ports. The concept and practice of reshoring have come into play, and many occupiers have placed this at the forefront of their business operations. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

Tight availability, high rents, and port congestion along the West Coast have pushed many occupiers to the Southeast region and to ports along the East Coast, such as Savannah and Charleston, which are seeing record TEU volumes. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

And don't forget about the third leg of this three-legged stool: New Orleans.

NEW ORLEANS — The pandemic-era collapse of supply chains spurred speculation that globalization was on the decline, as companies vowed to become less reliant on foreign providers of goods and services.

But if New Orleans is any example, the world is headed for less of a retreat from global trade and more of an overhaul to how it operates.

A critical gateway between the Mississippi River and global oceans, New Orleans has been an entry and exit point for the United States since before the Louisiana Purchase. The city is now betting that position will continue — and even deepen — as the world enters a new era of global integration.

The New Orleans port is one of the nation’s busiest for agricultural exports like soybeans and corn. But it has struggled to compete for the lucrative imports that are ferried on huge ships from Asia, in part because those vessels cannot fit under a local bridge. As global supply chains rearrange in the pandemic’s wake, New Orleans’ proximity to Mexico and its position on the Mississippi River could help make it a crucial stop in what many expect to be a more resilient supply chain of the future.

Executives at the New Orleans port are wagering on that transformation: They recently unveiled a plan to spend $1.8 billion on expanding the port to a new site that can handle more trade and accommodate bigger boats. That optimism about the future of trade breaks with some of the worst fears of the past few years, as pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, COVID lockdowns in China and Russia’s war with Ukraine shook confidence in the global trading system.

Policymakers and company executives vowed to become less reliant on China and to locate supply chains closer to home. That prompted predictions that the world was headed for a period of “de-globalization,” in which the trade and financial ties that have brought countries closer in recent decades would spin into reverse. So far, economic data shows few signs of such a sharp retreat. [Reminder: we're in a recession.]

Anyway, do your own google search -- us ports los angeles news. I'm moving on. Remember: we're in a recession.

CVX: up almost 4% in pre-market trading.

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All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.