Thursday, July 14, 2011

For Investors Only -- Alcoa Earnings Double; Now Google Reports a Blowout Quarter

Alcoa reported doubling earnings earlier this week and now Google reports a blow-out quarter.

My hunch: major oil companies will report a great quarter; regional companies heavily weighted in the Bakken will report great earnings, but production below targets.

A reminder: "earnings central" linked on the sidebar at the right. Nothing else to report yet, however.

This Is Why Folks Remain Excited About The Bakken -- Results of Eleven (11) Producing Wells Reported -- Five (5) New Permits -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Daily activity report, July 14, 2011 --

Operators:  Kaiser-Francis (2), Crescent Point Energy, Hess, Petro-Hunt

Fields: Colgan, Oliver, Dublin, Gooseneck

Kaiser-Francis hasn't had a permit since 2004, and has had very permits overall in North Dakota according to the NDIC. Both permits are in Colgan field, which I had not heard of before.

Colgan and Gooseneck oil fields are both in northern North Dakota, west and southwest of West Ambrose and Ambrose fields.  Crescent Point Energy is well-known to be involved in wells in this part of North Dakota; it is a Canadian company. For more on Crescent Point Energy click here.  I had forgotten about Crescent Point Energy and EOR (waterflooding). I now have three EOR companies to think about: DNR, Crescent Point, and WLL.

Here is what should excite everyone, the list of produced wells that have been completed and now reporting IPs:
  • 19181, 1,088, Marathon, Elk USA 11-17H, Mountrail County
  • 19245, 660, Cornerstone, Linda Hinds 8-7H, Burke
  • 19372, 1,057, Marathon, RMJK 31-26H, Mountrail
  • 19388, 980, CLR, Nordeng 1-8H, McKenzie
  • 19412, 1,425, BEXP, Kalil Farms 14-23 1H, Williams
  • 19435, 2,836, BEXP, Tufto 7-6 1H, Williams
  • 19485, 880, Slawson, Loon Federal 1-24-25H, Mountrail
  • 19661, 999, BEXP, MacMaster 11-2 1J (typo?), Williams
  • 19795, 2,029, Newfield, Johnson 150-99-34-27-1H, McKenzie
  • 19838, 1,069, Marathon, Debbie Baklenko USA 12-26H, McKenzie
  • 19868, 2,541, BEXP, A. Tufto 18-19 1H, Williams
These are not unusual IPs for BEXP, but lately I've been seeing better IPs for Marathon. At one time, the scuttlebutt was that MRO couldn't bring in a well better than an IP of 500 or so. Newfield has been very, very interesting, with some great wells.

New Name in the Bakken: Select Energy

I would have completely missed this, but thanks to "Neil," we can add another name to those operating in the Bakken: Select Energy.

From their website:
Select Energy Services, LLC, an oilfield service and supply company headquartered in Houston, TX, announced today the acquisition of The Western Company of Texas, Inc., a Fort Worth, TX, based water transfer company with operations in the Bakken, Barnett, Eagle Ford, Granite Wash and Haynesville.
News story link. (the same story)
Select Energy Services announced the acquisition of The Western Company of Texas, a Fort Worth, TX, based water transfer company with operations in the Bakken, Barnett, Eagle Ford, Granite Wash and Haynesville.

This acquisition represents Select Energy Services commitment to become the leading water solutions and oilfield service provider in shale plays throughout the U.S.

Coal: First Time Since 2004 -- Competitive Bidding for Coal Lease -- BLM -- Not a Bakken Story But Speaks Volumes Where Fossil Fuel Is Headed

Link here.
In an uncommon move, a coal company has outbid another firm for mining rights to millions of tons of coal in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming.

Peabody Coal Energy Corp., through a subisidiary, outbid Alpha Coal West for a lease to mine coal that is adjacent to mines owned by the companies.

The BLM announced the winning bid Thursday. BLM spokeswoman Mary Wilson told the Star-Tribune this sale was the first with bid competition since 2004.



Active Rigs in North Dakota: Two Away From All-Time High -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

I normally wouldn't post this until we hit a new high, but the rapid rise from a recent low of 166 last week (or whenever it was) to 178 today is almost breath-taking, even to an inappropriately exuberant Bakkenite like me.

But here we are at 178 active rigs in North Dakota. The all-time record is 179.

The record number of rigs is updated at the sidebar at the right. 

Minnesota Shut Down Over?

Link here.

Apparently the shut down is almost over.

More later, too much news right now, catching up.

How Much Are Bakken Acres Worth? $8,800 -- July 12, 2011 -- BLM Sale

Link here (regional link will break).

Here's the headline:

Oil, gas lease sale in Montana brings in $66.3 million


111 parcels: all received bids.
Two North Dakota parcels received the highest bid per acre at $8,800, which were submitted by Irish Oil and Gas of Bismarck and Continental Resources of Williston.
The $8,000/acre is about the highest I've seen. There have been some higher, but not many, and not by much.

Highest single-parcel bid: Hess, 732-acre parcel, $6.2 million.

By the way, the headline:

Here is the map of the sales: http://www.mt.blm.gov/oilgas/leasing/leasesales/july11/final/SaleMap.pdf

Notice something? I would not have even pulled up the map to look at it today -- I did not have time -- that would have to wait, but then "Don" noted something very, very odd about the sale. Can you see what he saw? Hint: look at the headline again. Now, can anyone explain why? "Don" has a theory.

From a November 23, 2010, story and a February 7, 2011, story. After awhile, the judges will even get tired of these cases.

COP spikes 7 Percent: Will Split Downstream / Upstream

Updates

July 19, 2011: Upside Less Than Expected, SeekingAlpha.com

Analysis:  COP gives up "super-major dream."
ConocoPhillips has hit on a neat trick for dealing with its unwanted oil refineries at a time when plenty of plants are on the block and there are few buyers: it has decided to give them away.

Is it the unwinding of the supermajor movement from the late 1990s that saw the biggest oil companies race to bulk up, arguing they needed massive scale to tackle costly projects like deepwater and oil sands?

Is it also an admission that the Golden Age of refining, which saw even the least efficient U.S. refineries become hugely valuable as fuel demand soared before collapsing in 2008, is at an end?

It's hard to say, but there seems to be more at play here than just responding to equity investors' demand for more "pure play" companies. Refining may be struggling but in some places, like the U.S. Midwest, it is again enormously profitable.
Certainly all the supermajors, even ExxonMobil, are selectively cutting refining.

Shell, Chevron and Total have all closed or sold refineries in Europe recently and BP is exiting much of its U.S. portfolio after cutting back sharply in Europe.

But they all seem to see some value in retaining at least their best performing refineries.
Attribution: The original post was slightly incorrect. Technically "Don" was the first to alert me to the story. I happened to read "Charley's" e-mail first but they both sent me the news, almost at the same time, but "Don's" was there a few minutes earlier. I just hadn't gotten to it.

Connecting the dots: There are some interesting perspectives on why MRO and COP might be doing this (splitting upstream/downstream).

Remember this story back in 2008? XOM to sell its branded service stations? I think there are dots to connect among these stories, this one involving XOM, MRO, and COP. Remember, XOM is considered the best strategic player among "Big Oil."

Original Post

Link here. And here.

ConocoPhillips led gains in the sector, rising 6.6 per cent to $79.34 after the company announced its plan to split its refining and production businesses into two different publicly traded companies.  

“We estimate the value range on a split-up is between $73 and $92 per share. Essentially, we see little downside to owning the stock at current levels. Overall, we estimate we can comfortably get to $80 per share on a break-up value”, said Faisel Khan and analyst with Citi investment research.
COP in the Bakken, one of the bigger players -- I believe the number one producer through its subsidiary BR.

MRO recently announced same split (upstream/downstream). Will others follow? Do bears ... ?

More on this later.

A big "thank you" to Charley for alerting me to the story. I would have eventually seen it but I'm behind all the rest of you because a) I'm in Los Angeles (time difference); b) I am sleeping in late due to staying up late; and, c) I'm away all day with family.

Bear with me.

I Honestly Cannot Make This Up -- Posted With Minimal Comment

The German government wants to encourage the construction of new coal and gas power plants with millions of euros from a fund for promoting clean energy and combating climate change.

The plan has come under stiff criticism, but the Ministry of Economics and Technology defended the idea. A spokeswoman said it was necessary as the government switches from nuclear to other renewable energy sources and added that the money would promote the most efficient plants possible.

Funding for the initiative is limited to five percent of the energy and climate change fund’s annual expenditure between 2013 and 2016.

Link here for perhaps the most incredible story so far this year. 


By the way, this was completely predictable.

North Dakota's Two Senators Launch EOR Initiative

Link here.
North Dakota’s two US senators kicked off the National Enhanced Oil Recovery Initiative, which they described as a comprehensive effort to increase US oil production while sequestering carbon dioxide, at a July 12 press conference with oil industry executives, state officials, and technical experts.

Kent Conrad, a Democrat who chairs the Senate Budget Committee, and John Hoeven, a Republican serving his first term after 10 years as North Dakota’s governor, noted that the state already has one of the world’s only commercial-scale carbon sequestration operations, and has become the nation’s fourth-largest oil producer.
Others calling for increased government support. Unfortunately, now that "big business" wants to get into carbon capture championed by the administration, there will be efforts by same administration to squash it. I'm not holding my breath for any support from this administration.

By the way, I have lost the bubble on this. I don't know where things stand. Back in September, 2010, I understood the Basin Electric project at Beulah to be shelved, but according to their website, it sounds like it is up and running.

FYI.

More Oil Is Going To Be Needed in The Third Quarter -- Not Next Year, This Year, Starting Next Month

Link here.
In its report IEA discussed last month’s coordinated release of 60 million bbl of strategic oil stocks among its members as a response to the ongoing Libyan crisis. The so-called “Libya collective action” aimed to provide a bridge between rising oil demand in the third quarter and extra supplies made available by major producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the agency said.

As a result of higher non-OECD demand—despite OECD weakness—and some supply outages in addition to Libya’s, the market looks tighter to IEA than it did a month ago. So the call on OPEC crude and stock change is now 31.3 million b/d for this year’s third quarter, with a sizeable but still unquantifiable portion of this demand to be met by the Libya collective action, according to the report.
Yup.

Fox Article on US Energy Policy -- or Lack Thereof

A big "thank you" for Mike alerting me to the linked article below. 

Link here.
The battle over oil shale has now landed in the halls of Congress. The Bush Administration had come out with a plan to develop oil shale leases on federal land, which includes much of the Piceance Basin. But after it was sued by environmental groups, the Obama White House put those plans on hold and has ordered a review. That prompted Wyoming Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) to recently introduce a bill that would put it back on the fast track. 
The American Energy And Western Jobs Act is now before the Senate committee on Energy and Natural Resources.
Glen Vawter has spent 40 years chasing the promise of oil shale. Can it be done this time? “I hope it can,” he says. “And you know, I believe it might be, because we have this new technology.”
The old joke around western Colorado goes like this: Oil shale is the fuel of the future…..and always will be.
Now consider this: Estonia is developing oil shale. So is Brazil, China, too. The U.S. has far more than any of those countries.

Twelve (12) New Permits -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Daily activity report, July 13, 2011 --

Operators: Hess (4), CLR (4), BEXP (2), Oasis, Vecta 

Fields: Banks, Upland, Todd, Antelope, Camp, Plaza, Midway, Ray, and two wildcats.

The two wildcats belong to Hess, both in Williams County.

Two of the CLR permits will be on the same pad in McKenzie County, Antelope field.

Vecta has a second permit; this one in Mountrail County. Their first permit (yesterday) was in Ward County.

The two Hess permits are either on the same pad in Williams County, or very closely co-located.

EOG reported two nice well:
  • 18828, 1,066, EOG, Liberty LR 16-36H, Mountrail County
  • 19721, 1,063, EOG, Liberty LR 19-23H, Mountrail County