Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- May, 2025, Update -- Posted July 1, 2025

Locator: 48630SAUDI.

Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- just posted overnight. Link here.

Russia, link here, May data:

China, link here:

Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- April, 2025, Data -- Russia's Foreign Exchange Reserves -- May, 2025, Data -- Posted June 6, 2025

Locator: 48695SAUDI.

Link here.

Russia, link here, May data:

China, link here:

Foreign Exchange Reserves -- Russia, Saudi Arabia -- March 21, 2025

Locator: 48546SAUDI.

Russia: link here.

Saudi: link here.

Thursday, March 20, 2025

Locator: 48535B.

Gold: hit a new record high -- $3,051.96. 

Copper: hits a record; hits $10,000 in rally fueled by Trump's tariff threats.

China grid: China accelerates grid spending to absorb deluge of solar power.

Russia's oil price: drops 24% below budget target. Link here.

Most wanted:

• under Biden's administration, the FBI captured a total of four on the "Most Wanted" list
• under Trump, the FBI has already captured three on the "Most Wanted" list; new FBI director has been in office less than one full month

March Madness: Texas falls to Xavier in the final play-in game last night. My NCAA "March Madness" bracket has already crashed.

• first round, all 64 teams playing: today and tomorrow

Pemex: nationalized, again? Link here. 

In fact, it appears the entire Mexican energy sector -- fossil fuel, electricity, renewable energy -- has been nationalized. But I may have lost something in translation. 

California headlines:

• PSX plans to shut down it's refinery in Los Angeles this year; link here;
• this one refinery supplies 10% of the gasoline on which the state relies; ten percent;
  
• costly health care expansion -- for uninsured criminals -- worsens California's chronic budget deficit;
• LA city budget shortfall grows to nearly $1 billion, with layoffs "nearly inevitable";
• California's Medicaid (Medi-Cal) budget shortfall: $6.2 billion;
• University of California system begins hiring freeze amid threats to budget;
• "California's bullet train may deserve a mercy killing" -- the headline seems to be an op-ed but it's being reported by a most prestigious and credible source, CalMatters.
• Governor Newsom suggests the project connecting Sacramento to San Diego simply isn't going to happen; will now concentrate on that all-important, highly traveled corridor from Merced to Bakersfield
• Expedia shows no flights between these two cities

Sixth industrial revolution: link here. 

Sixth industrial revolution, link here:

**************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.16.

New wells:

• Friday, March 21, 2025: 52 for the month, 167 for the quarter, 167 for the year,
• None.
• Thursday, March 20, 2025: 52 for the month, 167 for the quarter, 167 for the year,
• 41022, conf, CLR, Alfsvaag Federal 8-31H, 
• 40156, conf, Hess, EN-Schroeder-157-94-1102H-3,

RBN Energy: Mexico hoping for boom in LNG exports, but major hurdles remain.

Mexico’s LNG sector has seen notable advancements in the past year, including new export project announcements and strategic investments. But many of the proposed LNG projects require extensive pipeline buildouts — no easy task south of the border and perhaps the biggest impediment most of the export projects face. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at where things stand with Mexico’s LNG sector and the export projects under development.

Saudi Arabia, Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- February 28, 202

Locator: 48439SAUDI.

Saudi:

Link here. 

Russia: link here.

Reserve Assets -- Saudi Arabia, Russia -- December 24, 2024

Locator: 44522SAUDI.

 

Link here.

Link here.

Russia. Link here.

Saudi, September, 2024, link here:

Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- September 5, 2024

Locator: 48533SAUDI.

Link here.

Link here.

Saudi Foreign Exchange Reserves Posted — November, 2023

Locator: 46463SAUDI. Posted January 5, 2024.

Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves: posted overnight. Link here.

Just Released -- Russia's Foreign Exchange Reserves -- May, 2023

Locator: 44886OIL.

Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves.

Link here. 

See this note to explain the jump in late 2022 -- January 18, 2023 --  it was Putin simply moving money from one pocket to another pocket, in this case, converting the country's pension fund (held/paid in rubles) into foreign exchange reserves (generally western currency).

For those still confused: Putin doesn't pay his pensioners their social security in dollars.

The chart was re-set in October 2022 when Putin began having trouble financing his war.

OPEC In A World Of Hurt -- June 6, 2023

Locator: 44849B.

If you have time for only one energy story today, this is is. 

From the link:

Saudi Arabia over the weekend slashed 10% of the kingdom’s oil output to boost prices, and the returns so far suggest it could be a costly bet.

After warning speculators that OPEC+ could cut oil production again, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced Sunday that the world’s biggest crude exporter would reduce 1 million barrels of its own output in July after other cartel members refused to join the effort.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-led allies account for close to half of the world’s oil production.

An output cut was expected to prop up prices amid concerns about a slowing global economy crimping energy demand. On Monday, oil prices opened sharply higher but gave up most of those gains. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose 0.8% to settle at $76.71 a barrel.

Oil prices remain about 18% lower than they were when OPEC+ first jolted the market in October with output cuts, which some members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, expanded in April.

Saudi officials familiar with the matter acknowledged that Monday’s increase in oil prices was less than expected by Abdulaziz, who privately defended the move to cut output and push back against short sellers after the contentious meeting, they said.

In other words, Abdulaziz remains an unhappy camper.

The two big stories today:

• OPEC+ is really, really in a world of hurt.
• Apple's headset.

OPEC+:

• Saudi's inability to raise prices. Link here.

• Citi: oil prices unlikely to hit $80 despite Saudi's production cut. Link here.

• Russia: takes huge hit in May, 2023. Link here. So much for all that talk about futility of sanctions. This is from Charles Kennedy so you know it's good and it's important.

***************************
How Bad Is It?

Previously posted:

Locator: 44842SA. 

Link here.

The "y-axis" has been changed from last month's posting making things look better than they really area.

Today's one year view:

The five-year view is better and other time-spans also show how badly Saudi Arabia must be hurting.

Years ago, Saudi's budget was based on $100-oil. From there it went to $80-oil. Currently running about $75 but could be selling oil at greater discounts.

Biden Administration: Will "Investigate" Why Gasoline Prices Are Not Falling -- I Can't Make This Stuff Up -- September 16, 2021

Updates

September 22, 2021: I wonder if there has been any progress?

Original Post 

Link here.

Link here.

Link here.

Link here.

No Good Deed Goes Unpunished: Saudi Agrees To Lower Output; Prices Rise And Customers Buy From Russia, Others -- February 10, 2021

What's worse for Saudi Arabia?

• selling oil for $50/bbl
• selling no oil when it's trading at $60/bbl

LOL.

This is the headline: European interest in Saudi crude wanes.

Wanes? 

The Europeans lose interest in Saudi crude oil.

Link here.

Four of Saudi Arabia's term crude customers in northwest Europe and the Mediterranean have opted to request no March-loading cargoes, while two other regional buyers have only asked for the minimum under their contractual obligations.

The waning interest from Europe follows state-controlled Saudi Aramco's decision to lift its official formula prices for March crude exports to northwest Europe and the Mediterranean by $1.30-1.40/bl compared with February. It could free up additional March-loading cargoes for Aramco's core customer base in Asia-Pacific. 

Aramco has had to carry out a delicate balancing act between retaining its share of the sour crude market and meeting Riyadh's Opec+ production pledges. Early last month, Saudi oil minister Abdulaziz bin Salman surprised the market by announcing his country would voluntarily reduce its crude output by 1mn b/d under its official Opec+ quota of 9.12mn b/d in February and March. The move is likely to be reflected in Saudi crude exports. 

Saudi exports to destinations west of Suez were already declining. January-loaded shipments to Europe and the Americas — including volumes discharged into Egyptian storage in Sidi Kerir, where many western buyers collect their crude — has reached 805,000 b/d so far. This accounts for just 13pc of last month's 6.12mn b/d of exports from Saudi crude terminals, excluding shipments from the Neutral Zone that Riyadh shares with neighbouring Kuwait, according to Argus tracking. An average 1.27mn b/d headed west of the Suez Canal last year, or around 19pc of total Saudi loadings. 

More at the linked article. 

More:

Refiners in northwest Europe and the Mediterranean may look to offset lower Saudi imports with a higher intake of more competitively priced Russian Urals or Iraqi Kirkuk blend marketed by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), according to traders. Ample supply and weak long-haul buying has seen Baltic Urals values shed $1.40/bl over the past two weeks, with Black Sea cargoes of the Russian grade losing $1.55/bl over the same period. Meanwhile, spot price assessments of KRG-sold Kirkuk cargoes have dropped by 50¢/bl on the week, with traders pointing to a slump in interest from Chinese buyers.

Other Mideast Gulf crudes could also benefit from weaker European demand for Saudi crude. Although Iraq's Somo and Kuwait's KPC followed in Aramco's footsteps with month-on-month increases in their official formula prices for customers in the region, the rises were not as steep.  

Market participants have suggested that European refiners might show greater interest in North Sea grade Johan Sverdrup. Like Russia's Siberian Light and Libya's Es Sider, Johan Sverdrup is used by some refiners as an indirect substitute to meet either light sweet or sour crude requirements.

The Most Colossal Debacle In The History Of Oil -- Saudi Threatening To Flood The World With Oil -- March 25, 2020

Updates

S&P Global Platt: Saudi wants to pump more way more oil than it ever has, a major test for Aramco. Summary:

• Aramco says will pump at max 12 million b/d capacity
• some doubt its ability to produce that much crude
• finding buyers a challenge in distressed market

In a week's time [starting April 1, 2020], Saudi Arabia is set to turn its taps to the max and unleash a surge of crude oil that refiners increasingly say they don't want nor need.

But the kingdom has yet to prove that it can follow through on its plans to pump an unprecedented 12 million b/d of crude — almost 1 million b/d higher than it has ever produced before.

It is only recently recovered from last September's missile attack on its critical Abqaiq crude processing facility, and pumping at that volume will be a massive test of state oil company Aramco's capabilities and infrastructure.

"My sense is that they can do it but they need time to deliver the full capacity," said long-time Saudi analyst Bill Farren-Price, a director at consultancy RS Energy Group, adding that additional rigs would need to be hired to tap the kingdom's vast reserves. "The terminal and midstream capacity is there, but the wellhead capacity needs... at least 90 days to be delivered."

Saudi officials, piqued by Russia's rejection of an OPEC proposal for deeper production cuts to prop up prices, have ordered Aramco to supply a record 12.3 million b/d of crude starting April 1, flooding a coronavirus-impaired market that has seen oil demand collapse. Aramco has said 300,000 b/d of that supply will come out of its vast global inventories, leaving the remaining 12 million b/d to come from the ground, implying the company will be using its entire production capacity.

Much, much more at the link. Perhaps one of the best summaries to date where we stand.

We've been through this before. The article ends:

Saudi crude inventories have not swelled in preparation for an export rise, according to geospatial intelligence firm Ursa, standing at 100.2 million barrels as of last week, in line with the year-to-date average of 101 million barrels.

Saudi crude exports have also yet to accelerate, with March volumes averaging 6.84 million b/d, down from February's 7.19 million b/d, according to trade flow tracker Kpler.

Market realities may mean that whether or not Saudi Arabia is able to max out its production, its will to supply record volumes may run up against buyers' lack of appetite for crude.

Original Post

If everything below looks familiar, it is because I have re-posted an earlier post with new screenshots from twitter in the last 24 hours. The "shelter-in-place" orders now in effect will drop US gasoline demand to/by unprecedented levels which were never predicted in any modeling. It's impossible to predict how this plays out, but I am blown away by the timing of my original post yesterday.

From a contributor over at SeekingAlpha.

• The reality will start to set in for everyone in OPEC+. Russian oil producers will be the first to refuse to increase oil production into a lower oil price environment.
• With Brent trading at $27/bbl and the discount needed to match Saudi crude to Europe at $15 to $17/bbl, Russian oil producers will be forced to sell crude at close-to-breakeven.
• But this sickening reality will start to hit the Saudis soon as well.
• With the contango for month 1 and month 6 Brent trading at -$8.46/bbl, the Saudi OSP discount offered on top of this will guarantee profits of almost $20/bbl to any oil trading firm that has the infrastructure to hold the crude for just 6 months.
• The takeaway from this is that this price war doesn't benefit anyone. The damage to the pocketbook will far outweigh any egos.

Something tells me Putin is not a bit happy with the Rosneft CEO who started this whole thing.

Two things with regard to my post yesterday.

First: immediately after opining that Saudi Arabia was not going to flood the world with oil as they threatened (for any number of reasons), "analysts" over at twitter started saying the same thing. See below. The country to watch today: Saudi Arabia. 

Second: the OPEC+ spat (Russia vs Saudi Arabia) has to be one of the most colossal debacles in the history of oil. Russia has blinked. The House of Saud in a fight for its very survival. Fifteen-thousand princes know that it was MBS' decision alone to flood the world with crude oil. And here we are: modeling suggesting that Brent will go well under $20/bbl. 

Updates

March 25, 2020:

March 25, 2020:

Later, 10:41 p.m. CT: isn't this interesting? After posting the note below three items from twitter:

• "Russia no longer considering adding production."
• "So Saudi are not ready to go to 12.3 mbpd. Also suggests they will have increase Ghawar production to achieve it. Will be interesting to see how the 70-year-old field handles the extra stress over long periods."
• "Saudis seek to speed up repairs at Abqaiq complex."
• you mean to tell me this complex has not yet been fully repaired; the attack was six months ago

Original Post

Before we get started:

• Saudi Arabia reported 205 new Wuhan flu cases in the past 24 hours (March 24, 2020).
• The day before, Saudi Arabia reported 51 new cases in 24 hours (March 23, 2020). 
• That's a four-fold increase in one day.
• The number of cases is obviously severely under-reported. 

Facts or at least what I think are the facts (folks can fact-check me on these). Maybe I should call these observations:

• Saudi Arabia and Russia were quibbling about less than a million bopd one way or the other
• the argument was whether to extend the quotas after they expire at the end of March, 2020 (one week from now)
• the argument was less about the quotas (and price) and more about protecting one's market share
• a digression:
• 30% of the market share at $70/bbl vs 35% of the market share at $20/bbl -- but we need to move on
• Saudi Arabia's budget is based on $83-oil and that is after a cut in the budget; 
• much evidence that the kingdom has been in financial difficulty for several years, maybe starting in 2014 (previously posted)
• at one time, not many years ago, Saudi Arabia's budget was based on $100-oil;
• Saudi Arabia cannot print rials (as opposed to the US which can print dollars) -- actually the country can print rials but you get the point
• so far, no increase in crude oil has reached the US from Saudi Arabia;
• to meet its export goals, Saudi Arabia will first empty its crude oil storage tanks;
• at the time of the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil sites, about six months ago (Sept, 2019), it was estimated that Saudi Arabia had 190 million bbls of crude oil in storage; in the big scheme of things, not particularly remarkable;
• Saudi oil in storage represents less than a month of exports based on last year's numbers;
• after Saudi crude oil in storage is exhausted, Saudi has to increase production to:
• increase exports by one to two million bbls /day to achieve its rhetoric to flood the world with oil;
• increase production for domestic use (occurs every summer to run air conditioners)
• increase production from the fields to replace oil for storage

All of this just in time for Wuha flu to hit the mideast. Saudi often fell short of production goals in the best of times; it will be interesting to see what the kingdom can do with the threat of Wuhan flu looming.

It's hard for me to believe that the world will remain in "lockdown" past April 30th. If the world returns to normal / begins to return to "normal" by May 1, 2020, oil demand will increase significantly.

At that time, one could see:

• max oil demand in the US; summer driving season; economy gets back on track;
• US injects $2 trillion in stimulus;
• China injects $7 trillion in stimulus;
• Saudi storage depleted;
• Russia can't make up the difference (for any number of reasons);
• Saudi production stressed (see above)

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. 

The above will be added to "how we got here," linked at the sidebar at the right.

Wuhan flu is tracked here. 

Are Higher California Margins Worth The Hassle For Refiners? -- RBN Energy -- September 22, 2017

Updates

Later, 11:27 a.m. Central Time: see first comment. I've brought the reader's comments up here for easier access:

The reader's comments:

Californians pay dearly for their environmental activism.

• Retail price of regular gasoline:
• California: $3.01
• Texas: $2.16
• https://s26.postimg.org/tfessjo49/Captura_de_pantalla_1457.png
• Retail price of industrial electricity:
• California: 12.07₡ per kilowatthour
• Texas: 5.22₡ per kilowatthour
• https://s26.postimg.org/s471k2sih/Captura_de_pantalla_1389.png
• Do the high energy prices have anything to do with the following?
• Growth in economy 2006 to 2015:
• California: 12.6%
• Texas: 35.8%
• https://s26.postimg.org/azyx8vzdl/Captura_de_pantalla_535.png
• California has the highest real poverty rate in the United States (adjusted for prices and other local factors):
• https://s26.postimg.org/3le6u92vt/Captura_de_pantalla_990.png
• Violent crime in California in 2016 was up 15.4% over 2014, and property crime was up 5.8%
• http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article167879952.html

This is important enough to be posted more than once or twice. Expect to see this data posted at least a few more times over the next few months.
 

Original Post

Active rigs:

$50.45→	9/22/2017	09/22/2016	09/22/2015	09/22/2014	09/22/2013
Active Rigs	57	33	68	196	185

RBN Energy: Are higher California margins worth the hassle for refiners? Bottom line:

Caught in a stifling regulatory environment and with the state chipping away at their market share in favor of electric cars and renewables, California’s refiners have to weigh the rewards of higher margins today against a questionable future tomorrow.

During years like 2015 when the Torrance refinery was offline, higher margins benefited those refineries left standing. And similar price spikes are bound to recur whenever unexpected outages bring down one or more plants in the future.

But such boosts in margin are limited and random in nature and arguably don’t compensate for an environment in which plant upgrades and expansions face a minefield of regulatory constraints. Unfortunately, the situation is unlikely to improve as electricity and renewables grab a bigger bite of the transport fuel market.

Saudi: their challenges never end. Russia is now adding more pipeline to China, stepping up race with Saudis -- Reuters via Rigzone.

Chinese oil refineries are gearing up to receive more Russian oil transported through an expanded Siberian pipeline network from January, likely cementing Russia's position as China's largest oil supplier in a close race with Saudi Arabia.

The planned ramp-up in pipeline supplies agreed in contracts signed in 2013 comes amid a pledge by producers to cut output to tighten global markets and illustrates the nip-and-tuck contest between the world's top oil exporters, Russia and Saudi Arabia, for dominance in the biggest crude importer, China.

Russia's top oil producer Rosneft said it is set to supply under government agreement 30 million tonnes of ESPO Blend crude to PetroChina in 2018, or 600,000 barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 50 percent from this year, after completion of the second East Siberia Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline, which has a main spur to Chinese border town Mohe.

"Rosneft has enough resources to supply under all its existing contracts, including the planned increase of supplies to China by 10 million tones next year," Rosneft said in a statement emailed to Reuters on Thursday.

Top state oil firm PetroChina has designated three refineries in northeast China as the main receivers of Russian oil, with one of them undergoing an $880 million upgrade.

California Blue, Roy Orbison

Russia Losing Dominance In The European Energy Market -- February 26, 2016

Two interesting data points show up today. The first from the EIA:

In Europe, the combination of low winter heating demand, high refinery runs, and increased imports have kept distillate fuel oil inventories in the Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp (ARA) area far above normal. Higher inventories have lowered distillate futures prices in the ARA area to a point where inventories are being held in floating storage and imported cargos are being diverted to longer voyages. --- EIA

The second, from The Wall Street Journal, front page, big story: Europe's energy escape valve -- US Gas -- Gulf Coast exports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, are expected to loosen Russia's dominance in the European energy market.

ABOARD THE INDEPENDENCE, Lithuania—On the deck of this floating gas terminal, Mantas Bartuska awaits a tanker to pass a narrow inlet on the Baltic Sea with the first natural gas shipments from the Gulf Coast that many hope will transform Europe’s energy market.

“Soon, hopefully, U.S. gas will come,” said Mr. Bartuska, chief executive of the operator of the Independence, the gas terminal docked at the port city of Klaipeda, Lithuania.

After a yearslong effort, a tanker chartered by Cheniere Energy, an American company, left a Louisiana port this week with the first major exports of U.S. liquefied natural gas, or LNG. This shipment isn’t going to Europe, but others are expected to arrive by spring.
“Like shale gas was a game changer in the U.S., American gas exports could be a game changer for Europe,” said Maros Sefcovic, the European Union’s energy chief.

Many in Europe see U.S. entry into the market as part of a broader effort to challenge Russian domination of energy supplies and prices in this part of the world. Moscow has for years used its giant energy reserves as a strategic tool to influence former satellite countries, including Lithuania, one of the countries on the fringes of Russia that now see a chance to break away.

Some are building the capacity to handle seaborne LNG, including Poland, which opened its first import terminal last year. In Bulgaria, which buys about 90% of its gas from Russia, Prime Minister Boyko Borissov said last month that supplies of U.S. gas could arrive via Greek LNG facilities, “God willing.”

The shale boom has reshaped the world energy market over the past decade, with the U.S. emerging as a new energy exporter, and the beginning of gas exports represents a big moment in this new world. Deutsche Bank estimates the U.S. could catch up with Russia as Europe’s biggest gas supplier within a decade, with each nation controlling around a fifth of the market. Russia supplies about a third of Europe’s gas via pipeline.

U.S. gas exports will improve energy security for its allies, said Chris Smith, assistant secretary at the U.S. Energy Department. Those include Lithuania, which was the first Soviet republic to declare independence in 1990 but remains reliant on Moscow for energy.

Until 2014, Gazprom owned 37% of Lithuania’s national gas company, Lietuvos Dujos, and dominated its boardroom, said current and former officials.

“There was no negotiation about gas prices,” said Jaroslav Neverovic, Lithuania’s energy minister from 2012 to 2014. He said Gazprom would send Lietuvos Dujos a list of gas prices, which the board automatically approved.

Mr. Neverovic said negotiations always took place on New Year’s Eve, when Gazprom would threaten to cut off supplies during winter’s coldest days. Gazprom denied setting unfair prices.

This is a huge story. Yesterday I had a long note on the headwinds facing both Russia and Saudi Arabia, ending with:

As Russia's footprint grows larger in the Mideast, it may behoove Saudi Arabia to find a better working relationship with Russia. This business about Saudi Arabia and US shale "living together" is not the story. The story is whether two arch enemies, Russia and Saudi Arabia can coexist.  

It appears Russia now faces another headwind, competition from the US to supply Europe with natural gas.

The story gets more and more interesting.

And in a sense, the story continues with a post by RBN Energy, today, of all things. How coincidental. Natural Gas Flowing To Sabine Pass LNG Export Plant – Part 2.

After years of debate and speculation regarding prospects for U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the first cargo left the Gulf Coast around 8:30 pm EST Wednesday (February 24, 2016) from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass terminal, according to Genscape’s global LNG cargo monitoring service. The vessel carrying a little more than 3.0 Bcf of LNG is reportedly bound for Petrobras in Brazil. The incremental export demand that this LNG cargo and others like it to follow represent, is potentially good news for U.S. gas producers, with benchmark futures prices at Henry Hub, LA closing yesterday (February 25, 2016) near record seasonal lows at $1.711/MMBtu in the face of mild winter demand, record production and brimming storage levels.

Today we look at how this first cargo was supplied and what that tells us about current and future impact to flows and regional prices.Last time, in Part 1 of Commencing Countdown, we looked at gas flows into the Sabine terminal in preparation for this historic cargo and showed that since Dec. 1, 2015 Sabine Pass received close to 7.5 Bcf of gas supply from two separate pipelines – Creole and NGPL –as part of start-up testing and commissioning activities for the first two liquefaction trains. Since then, receipts have climbed to more than 8 Bcf. Of that, 4.0 Bcf (50%) has come from Creole Trail while the other half has come from NGPL. These volumes are not large enough to make a dent in the overall U.S. supply/demand balance. However, they may provide an early indication of how the terminal and subsequent exports will be supplied. So this time we look at where the gas is coming from.

Saudi Arabia Regains Lead In Oil Sold To China -- November 23, 2015

Some data points. It looks like China imports about 4 million bopd. It appears all of it comes from Russia and the Mideast. In October, shares of imports by county of crude oil into China (numbers rounded, conversion calculator here):

• Saudia Arabia: 3.99 metric tons / month = 29 million bbls / month = 975,000 bopd
• Angola: 3.62 million metric tons / month = 27 million bbls / month = 880,000 bopd
• Russia: 3.41 million metric tons / month = 25 million bbls / month = 830,000 bopd
• Oman: 2.84 million metric tons / month = 21 million bbls / month = 700,000 bopd
• Iraq: 2.32 million metric tons / month = 17 million bbls / month = 570,000 bopd

In the linked article, Bloomberg says Saudi regained its lead over Russia in this metric (amount of crude oil sold to China); and that Angola, also, sold more oil to China than Russia in October, 2015.

The most recent reporting period for US crude oil imports is still August, 2015 (a dynamic link), reported earlier.

***************************

Venezuela Warns Oil Could Go To Mid-$20s 

The linked article above reports that OPEC meets "next week" -- a regularly scheduled meeting. The article reports that Venezuela says oil could drop as low as the mid-$20s if "OPEC does not take action to stabilize the market. That is the third source I've seen in the past several weeks citing the "mid-$20 figure."

*****************************

Meanwhile, Back in the Bakken Economy

For years, or probably as long as anyone can remember, Alexander, situated midway between Williston to the north, and Watford City to the east, has partnered with Watford City when it came to high school sports.

That may be about to change.

The Williston Herald is reporting:

Alexander has in the past partnered with Watford City’s athletic program, though due to the influx in student body, Watford City is refraining from the co-op this year so they can remain under 325 enrolled students to maintain their Class B status.

Alexander Superintendent reached out to Williston High School to see if it was possible to create that partnership for the school year that would allow their students to participate in baseball, softball, and track.

In baseball, they are only talking about 6 or 7 students.

November 12, 2015

350 miles of I-80 shut down due to massive winter storm, between Cheyenne and Evanston; reported by LIveTrucking. That's practically the entire state of Wyoming along I-80; Evanston is not all that far from Salt Lake City, and, of course, Cheyenne is at the other end of the state.

Active rigs:

	11/12/2015	11/12/2014	11/12/2013	11/12/2012	11/12/2011
Active Rigs	64	188	181	191	201

RBN Energy: The Strange Magic of Turning BTUs into Kilowatt-Hours, part 1 of a 3-part series.

It used to be the case that if natural gas even came up in power-industry discussions of generation, it  happened at the end of a meeting—“Well, we’re done with our nuclear and coal plans, anyone have anything else to discuss before we go to dinner?  Oh, that’s right—anything happening with gas?”  Now it’s the other way around.  It seems like every discussion starts with gas, whether it’s about the plants being low-cost and easy to site, about concerns around reliability and price volatility, or around the impact of the gas market on coal investments.  And power is clearly the fastest growing segment of the U.S. natural gas market.  But does all this attention from the power market mean that the natural gas industry really understands the power side?  Perhaps not.  In fact, we’ve found that frequently, as soon as we get beyond the marketers and analysts who deal specifically with supplying gas-fired power generation, there’s a lot the natural gas industry (and the energy markets in general) can learn about power plants, electricity markets, and how natural gas fits in.  So for that reason, we’ve concluded that now is a good time for a primer on how gas-fired generation works, how it fits together with energy markets and how it might be affected by national policy changes.   Today we take on this challenge with the first installment of a three-part series.

There are, of course, a lot of ways to make power.  The most popular for a long time has been to burn coal to generate steam, and run the steam through a turbine.  You can also burn other things—oil, natural gas, different kinds of waste—as long as you can produce enough steam.  Second most popular, especially over the last 20 years has been to run natural gas through a combustion turbine, basically a jet engine that uses its power to turn a shaft, instead of firing out the back and sailing off into the wild blue yonder.  Neither of these methods on its own has been very efficient.  In both cases, steam and combustion turbines, for every three units of energy you put in you only get one out, at least that’s the way it used to work historically.  But today power generators are combining these technologies in a way that is much more efficient.

********************************
Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, And Europe
Russia: Between Iran and A Hard Place

Updates

November 16, 2015: Saudi Arabia will wage war of attrition on Russia. OilPrice is reporting:

Russia’s central bank recently warned about the growing financial risks to the Russian economy from Saudi Arabia encroaching upon its traditional export market for crude oil. Russia sends 70 percent of its oil to Europe, but Saudi Arabia has been making inroads in the European market amid the oil price downturn.

The result is a heavier discount for Russia’s crude oil, the so-called Urals blend. Bloomberg reported that the Urals typically lands in Rotterdam, a major European destination, at a discount to Brent of around $2 or less. But the discount has widened to $3.50 lately due to increased competition from Saudi Arabia. “Oil supplies to Europe from Saudi Arabia are probably adversely affecting Urals prices,” the Russian central bank warned in a recent report.

Russian officials have accused Saudi Arabia of “dumping” its oil in Europe, a move that Rosneft chief Igor Sechin said would “backfire.”

Russia’s economy has been battered by the collapse in crude prices, compounded by the screws of western sanctions. The Russian economy could shrink by 3.2 percent this year.

Much, much more at the link. For Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela, oil is an existential issue. This is not going to look pretty, or end pretty. Russia has moved into the void in the Mideast which developed when the US, under President Obama, withdrew from the Mideast and told Saudi Arabia, in no uncertain terms, Saudi was on its own.

Original Post

Bloomberg/Rigzone is reporting:

Competition is growing in Russia’s biggest oil market. While Saudi Arabia’s encroachment in Europe is getting all the attention, the biggest threat comes from another part of the Middle East -- Iran.

The world’s largest oil exporter has started shipping crude to traditional Russian markets like Poland and Sweden, but Saudi supplies to Europe won’t increase by enough to reduce prices.

In contrast, a surge in Iranian exports after the lifting of sanctions could erode the value of Russian shipments to the region as soon as next year.

Tougher competition in Europe, the destination for almost 70 percent of Russia’s oil exports, comes as the country is already battling recession. Oil and gas sales account for about half of government revenues and the commodity-price slump has amplified the economic blow from international sanctions over Ukraine. An increase in Iranian exports following a nuclear deal with world powers could make matters worse.

“Eastern European refineries are geared to process Russian crude, the Urals blend, and the closest sort to it would be Iranian oil,” said Michael Nayebi-Oskoui, senior energy analyst for Middle East and South Asia at Stratfor.

For Saudi shipments to push prices down “they would have to be significantly rerouted from Asia towards Europe, and we don’t see that happening,” he said.

*********************************
 Columbia 

Bloomberg/Rigzone is reporting that Columbia's oil production will drop below 1 million bopd next year as exploration collapses and major fields age. Columbia's oil exports to the US have remained steady and probably increased over the past few years. Total Columbian exports to the US are minimal, about 300,000 bopd.

 
***********************************

Louisville Business First is reporting: undocumented immigrants lose Humana/ObamaCare health insurance.

Global warming science website, Alan Cheetham. Liar, lair, pants on fire. Meanwhile, Tiny Tim saw this coming decades ago. One wonders if Algore was in the audience.

Lots of stories across the nation today regarding huge snow storms, some setting records: everything is blinding white; Sierra storms setting records.

Posted earlier: Saudi Arabia risks destroying OPEC and feeding the ISIS monster, in The [London] Telegraph.

The new "big" Apple iPad: many reviewers elsewhere suggest the new Apple iPad could come close to replacing the laptop computer. Here is the WSJ story. If you hit a paywall, google Tim Cook has big ambitions for his big new iPad.

Daily newspaper circulation: has fallen below 15% per capita.

Are people paying attention: last night six aircraft were hit by lasers in NYC and Dallas; obviously not a coincidence. 

Russia Burning Through Cash; Rainy Day Funds Running Out As Early As Next Year; When Shove Comes To Push In The Mideast -- October 27, 2015

Back on October 20, 2015, I wrote this "not for prime time" essay:

In response to a reader talking about $30 oil in the near future, I had this reply:

The problem I see is that Russia can't survive on $30 oil, and now getting into a shooting war, they will spend even more money.

Maybe a year of stability ($30 oil) but once Russia has eradicated those fighting Assad, Putin can look at the bigger picture: Russia/Iran/Syria vs Saudi Arabia.

It might take awhile, but I have trouble believing Putin is in as deep as he is in Syria just because he "likes" Assad. As someone else said, Obama handed Putin the "key to the Mideast" and I think Putin will take advantage of that -- Pan-Shia Persia (90-95% of Iranians are Shi'a and 5-10% are Sunni [Wiki]).

Persia is chomping at the bit to be the Mideast leader once again. Putin is chomping at the bit to be the "Lawrence of Arabia Putin of Persia" and/or Alexander the Great. There's probably already a Hollywood writer fleshing out the movie script.

I had no plans to post that (which I wrote last night) but then this story popped up this morning:

Saudi Arabia's foreign minister on Monday urged Iran to stop "meddling" in the affairs of the kingdom's neighbours, warning that Riyadh stood ready to confront Tehran's actions. 

Iran openly backs President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian war and is accused of also being behind rebels who overran large parts of Yemen last year and early this year.

Also, this story was linked/posted a few days ago: Saudi Arabia is waging an oil war with Russia, reported in The Chicago Tribune:

President Vladimir Putin tries to restore Russia as a major player in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is starting to attack on Russia's traditional stomping ground by supplying lower-priced crude oil to Poland.

At a recent investment forum, Igor Sechin, chief executive of Rosneft, Russia's biggest oil company, complained about the Saudis' entry into the Polish market. "They're dumping actively," he said.

Other Russian oil executives are worried, too. "Isn't this move a first step toward a redivision of Western markets?" Nikolai Rubchenkov, an executive at Tatneft, said at an oil roundtable Thursday. "Shouldn't the government's energy strategy contain some measures to safeguard Russia's interests in its existing Western markets?"

European traders and refiners confirm that Saudi Arabia has been offering its oil at significant discounts, making it more attractive than Russian crude. And, even though most eastern European refineries are now technologically dependent on the Russian crude mix, Russia's oilmen are right to be worried.

It may be getting more urgent for Russia every day. Being reported today:

Russia says it's likely to deplete one of its two rainy day funds by the end of next year as tries to plug the state deficit amid the economic downturn.

The economy, battered by low energy prices and Western sanctions, entered recession this year for the first time since 2009.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told the parliament Tuesday that the Reserve Fund, which holds 4.7 trillion rubles ($74 billion), is likely to halve by the end of the year with oil prices as low as they are — and be depleted by the end of 2016.

The other fund, now at 4.9 trillion rubles ($75 billion), is largely used to support infrastructure projects.

The Russian economy is forecast to contract by 3.9 percent this year and grow by 0.7 percent next year.

Russians are used to austerity. But the risk is that this becomes more about "existence" than "austerity" for Putin. And that's why I re-posted the "not ready for prime time" comments above.

We're getting closer and closer to asking which countries default first?