Thursday, March 16, 2017

Is Apple Dumping AirPods On The Market? Nothing About The Bakken -- March 16, 2017

Apple has always been accused of overpricing their products: it's been called the "Apple tax" for decades.

Now, at least one analyst is accusing Apple of under-pricing its AirPods and its Apple Watches to gain market share. LOL.

This is really quite funny. Or amazing. Or ... whatever.

Here's the link.
Apple is underpricing AirPods and the Apple Watch in an effort to bring new users into its ecosystem, according to Neil Cybart of Above Avalon.
The analyst said this pricing strategy was "unimaginable" ten years ago, when Apple was often accused of pricing products artificially high, aka "Apple Tax."
AirPods cost $159 in the United States, which Cybart said is "surprisingly low" compared to competing truly wireless headphones (see link for competing products/prices).
Cybart believes a strong case could have been made for Apple to price its AirPods at $249, or even $299, but by selling them for $159, he thinks Apple has "removed all available oxygen from the wireless headphone space" and forced competitors to cut pricing in an attempt to better compete.
Earin's wireless headphones now start at $199, for example, while Motorola's VerveOnes+ are on sale for $189.99. Even at those discounted prices, however, AirPods are still cheaper at $159.
I can't make this stuff up. But I always thought the Apple Watch was way under-priced.

Quick, Pop Quiz

What connects Follow Me, Boys To The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance?

Liberty Valance, Gene Pitney

How About 52K Bbls In One Month? Whiting To Report Another Huge Rolla Federal Well; Number Of Active Rigs Creep Up In The Bakken -- March 16, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs4731111190185

Wells coming off confidential list Friday:
  • 31711, 3,810, Whiting, Rolla Federal 21-3-2TFH, Twin Valley, t10/16; cum 150K 1/17;
  • 32753, SI/NC, XTO, Bear Creek Federal 31X-3H,
Three new permits:
  • Operators: Whiting (2), Enerplus
  • Fields: Sanish (Mountrail), McGregory Buttes (Dunn)
  • Comments:
Seven permits renewed:
  • Whiting (3): three Schaffer permits in Williams counties
  • BR (2): a Curtis permit and a Saddle Butte permit, both in McKenzie County
  • Enerplus (2): a Saturn permit and a Venus permit, both in Dunn County
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 30772, 634, XTO, FBIR Grinnell 34X-33E, Heart Butte, t2/17; cum --
  • 30773, 477, XTO, FBIR Grinnell 34X-33A, Heart Butte, t2/17; cum --
  • 32005, 1,680, BR, CCU Bison Point 14-34TFH, Corral Creek, t2/17; cum --
  • 32456, 1,361, Hess, BB-Federal 151-95-1708H-7, Blue Buttes, t2/17; cum -- 

31711, see below, Whiting, Rolla Federal 21-3-2TFH, Twin Valley:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Random Note On The Permian; Pioneer Has Announced It Has Found A Buyer For Announced Sale Of Some Permian Acreage -- March 16, 2017

From just a few months ago, October 20, 2016:
Exxon's CEO doesn't see "supply shortage" pushing up oil prices. Says ample production from US shale regions will keep prices subdued for years to come, disagreeing with others in the industry who have warned about a looming shortage.
Other speakers at the conference echoed his views
ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance estimates that new wells are viable in the Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken shale basins at just $40 a barrel
Production in the Permian can grow by 300,000 barrels a day for the next 10 years “easy,” said Scott Sheffield, chief executive officer of Pioneer Natural Resources Co., which is adding five drill rigs in the basin. 
“It’s difficult to see a big supply precipice out there,” Tillerson said. “It’s difficult to see a big price blowout. 
”Despite persistent fears of bankruptcies in the U.S. oil patch as banks cut lending to the energy industry, Tillerson said the current boom-and-bust cycle has “confirmed the viability of a very large resource base in North America,” adding that shale would serve as “enormous spare capacity” to meet future demand. 
The comments are likely to reinforce the emerging view at the Oil & Money conference, which every year gathers some of the leading industry voices, that oil prices will remain at around $50 to $60 a barrel for the next few years.
Pioneer sales of Permian acreage:

Pioneer has announced that it has found a buyer for some of its Permian acreage for $266 million.

From Oil & Gas Investor:
Pioneer said an undisclosed buyer will acquire the acreage with an average production of about 1,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day for $266 million. The amount of acreage was not disclosed but the company had been evaluating offers for 20,500 net acres in Martin.
The sale of the Martin acreage comes after January agreements to sell 5,600 net acres in Upton and Andrews counties, Texas for $63 million in gross proceeds.
  • $266 million / 20,500 = $13,000 / acre
  • $63 million / 5,600 =$12,000 / acre
Pioneer completion strategies in the Permian:
From Pioneer's March, 2017, investors' presentation, Pioneer is now moving into "version 3.0" for completion solutions. These are for 9,000-foot laterals. Doing the math suggests upwards of 15 million lbs of sand and 90 stages.
Spicer Drove Me To Do This

This is really quite funny. I've mentioned earlier that the only thing I listen to on the radio now is classical music.

Today after coming home from biking, I turned on the television to see what was happening, and happened to catch a few minutes of America's soap opera, the "Daily Spicer Show," not to be confused with the "Daily Show" which was never near as funny.

I couldn't take it. Most of the press conference was splitting fine hairs between "NSA surveillance" and "Obama wiretapping." Honestly, I could not take it.

So, I did the same thing I did yesterday. I turned to Turner's classic movies. Yesterday it was an incredibly good afternoon movie -- a "whodunit" -- it was so good, I already forgot the name of the movie. That's fine. That's right, it was Angel Face.

But today, a movie - a sequel, apparently to another movie I missed -- with Hedy Lamarr, Lana Turner, and, Judy Garland. Wow. Jimmy Stewart, Jackie Cooper. Another wow.

I have to admit, I really see Liza Minnelli (at same age; Wizard of Oz; accent/voice; looks) in Judy Garland. I had never paid attention before.

And Jimmy Stewart -- it almost seems he was a one-trick pony. But he played it for what it was worth.

I have to laugh. I have "digressed" -- back to classical music and black and white films from the '40s and '50s.

I love it, and I have to thank Spicer and the White House press corps.

Update On Kraqi's Problems -- Platts -- March 16, 2017


March 28, 2017: in the original post below, this data point:
Taq Taq, it turns out was "all talk talk" -- original estimates were abruptly/suddenly/unexpectedly cut in half in February 2016 when Genel stunned investors: cut estimates to 356 million bbls from 683 million bbls with gross remaining 2P reserves as of December 2015 of only 172 million bbls
Now, Reuters has an update, and it's not good news for Genel or its investors.
Genel Energy's market value collapsed to an all-time low on Tuesday after it said for a second time that its flagship oilfield contains less crude than expected, dealing another blow to chairman Tony Hayward to rescue the indebted Kurdish producer.
Since listing in 2011 and claiming to be the largest independent UK listed firm by reserves, Genel has been hit by a string of unsuccessful exploration campaigns in Africa and reserves at its largest Iraqi Kurdistan field shrinking to just a tenth.
Original Post 

Whenever I come across an article with a headline or a leading sentence with both "Iraq" (or any other Middle Eastern country) and "problem" (or "obstacle," or some synonym), it puts a slight smile on my face, momentarily at least. Throw in "unexpected" and the slight smile becomes a bit bigger.

So it was with this Platts headline over at Twitter which had all three words: Iraq's unexpected decision to exclude Shaikan crude oil from its export pipeline reflects much bigger problems. The tweet took me to this story: Iraqi KRG faces obstacles to maintain crude oil export quality. Data points:
  • KRG: the regional government of semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan (or Kraqi for some old Brits, as in "by Kraki")
  • appears to be struggling with quality of its oil exports
  • Kurdish crude is delivered to Turkish terminal at Ceyhan (and I thought the Turks and Kurds didn't like each other; silly me)
  • problems appeared soon after signing a landmark supply agreement with Rosneft aimed at opening up new markets for Kurkish crude
  • appeared in a regulatory filing by Gulf Keystone Petroleum
  • Gulf Keystone Petroleum: produces heavy crude from Kurdistan's giant Shaikan field
  • result?  Kraqi decided to stop accepting Shaikan crude for blending (think blending light Bakken with heavy Canadian oil in Keystone pipeline)
  • Kraqi has agreed to shoulder the cost of transporting Shaikan crude by truck (CBT) for export as a stand-alone product AND it will continue to pay Gulf Keystone a flat $15 million/month for current/past exports
  • Platts then goes into a number of problems for Kraqi's Shaikan oil
  • Shaikan crude: low API (heavy oil); high sulfur
  • the fact that this decision was made suggests to analysts that Kraqi is having trouble bringing on its new fields
  • Taq Taq (or, as I call, it "all talk talk") -- joint venture between Genel Energy (Turkish) and Sinopec (Chinese); one of two major fields that has been the mainstays of Kraqi's light crude oil and production
  • Tawke (or, as I call, it, "more talk") is the second of two big Kraqi fields (the other Taq Taq)
  • Taq Taq, it turns out was "all talk talk" -- original estimates were abruptly/suddenly/unexpectedly cut in half in February 2016 when Genel stunned investors: cut estimates to 356 million bbls from 683 million bbls with gross remaining 2P reserves as of December 2015 of only 172 million bbls
  • Taq Taq could shrink to as little as 50,000 bopd by 2018, from 80,000 now
  • Tawke: averages 100,000 bopd; proven and probably reserves of 500 million bbls
  • and more and more
  • Kraqi's other large field, Kirkuk is in territory disputed by Eribil and Baghdad
  • suffice it to say, as Platts says, "all this adds up to a ton of trouble"
Or a barrel of monkeys.

And still more and more at the link.

Random Update Of Oasis Rolfson 20-17H, #20465 -- March 16, 2017


October 22, 2017, recent production data, starts off where original production data ended (see below):

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
 Original Post

For background for this well and this post, see the note at this post.

The well:
  • 20465, 1,305, Oasis/Zenergy, Rolfson 29-17H, Siverston, 30 stages, 2.6 million lbs, t9/11; cum 269K 8/17; taken off-line 6/16; off-line through 12/16; back on line as of 1/17;
The graphic:

  • FracFocus: no data reported by FracFocus for any frac; this usually means the initial frack was done before requirement to send data to public registry; if there has been a recent//new frack, that data may get be on its way to being posted/submitted
  • NDIC file report: nothing more recent that a sundry form received in December, 2013, about the time Oasis acquired all these great wells from Zenergy
  • Production data for the past year or so. Note the nice jump in production. The number is not big enough to suggest a new frack but it's location is very, very interesting
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Oasis Rolfson 29-32H, #20464, Back On-Line; Nice Work By The Roughnecks -- March 16, 2017


January 30, 2018:
  • 20464,1,202, Oasis/Zenergy, Rolfson 29-32H, Siverston, 28 stages, 1.95 million lbs; t12/11; cum 247K 4/17; (off-line since 6/16); a re-frac according to a September 4, 2016, sundry form; FracFocus as of 6/17 has no record of re-frack; as of 1/18, still no data at FracFocus for a re-frack; converted to gas lift, December, 2017;
June 13, 2017: FracFocus has no data of this well ever being fracked. Of course, the well was fracked back in 2011 before FracFocus was taking frack data. After 2012, or thereabouts, maybe 2014, somewhere in there, FracFocus went live, and wells fracked after that date are captured by FracFocus. I do not know how long it takes data from a fracked well to be posted by FracFocus.

I generally consider any jump in production by more than 11,000 bbls/month to suggest that a well has been fracked or refracked. 

The jump in production in this well in February, 2017, suggested that the well has been re-fracked. FracFocus does not yet have the data but a sundry form in September, 2016, says that Oasis planned to re-frack this well. This will give us an opportunity to see how long it takes for FracFocus to post data for a re-fracked well. 

April 10, 2017: production production has been updated. See below, for most recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Original Post

After reading the post below, see this post, also

Back on February 2, 2017, this was the update for this well:
20464, 1,202/IA, Oasis/Zenergy, Rolfson 29-32H, Siverston, 28 stages, 2 million lbs, t12/11; cum 183K 12/16; taken off-line 6/16; off-line through 12/16; from sundry form suggesting start date of September, 2016, for this: Oasis intends to refrack the Rolfson 29-32H well at the beginning of the infill stimulations (sic) operations for the Rolfson S wells in the 29 and 32 sections of 151N98W. If [preparatory tests are sufficient], the refrack design will consist of a bullheaded diversion sequence treatment in a crosslinked fluid system with 50 diversion sequences.
Update (back on active status):
  • 20464, 1,202/A, Oasis/Zenergy, Rolfson 29-32H, Siverston, 28 stages, 2 million lbs, t12/11; cum 193K 1/17;
  • FrackFocus: no data for any new frack; most likely yet to come in/submitted
  • NDIC update: no new sundry form since the September, 2016, sundry form noted above
  • The production profile as of January, 2017 (most recent available), since September, 2015. The 9,204 bbls over 15 days extrapolates to 19,000 bbls over a 31-day month:
Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The Graphic For The Rolfson N Wells Has Been Posted -- March 16, 2017

At this link.

Purim 2017

I completely missed it. I had planned to write something last weekend noting the Jewish feast day, Purim, which was celebrated this year, beginning the evening of Saturday, March 11, and ending the evening of Sunday, March 12 (2017).

And then I forgot.

I was reminded of that while doing sit-ups and noticing my "advance copy/pre-publication copy/not-for-sale copy" of Abigail Pogrebin's My Jewish Year on the dusty bookshelf.

Pogrebin suggests the year was "sometime in the fifth century BCE." That would put it in the same century that the Greeks defeated the Persians, which made me curious.

It turns out that there is no clear date when the Jews in Persia were saved by Esther. It's not even agreed that the story is true.

However, what is most interesting is this nugget from wiki:
Nineteenth-century Bible commentaries generally identify Ahasuerus with Xerxes I of Persia.
And, of course, it was Xerxes I that was defeated by the Greeks in 480 BCE.

Shortly after that the Greco-Persian wars ended and the Golden Age, the Classical Age, of Greece began.

I guess we all have our annus horribilis and for Xerxes I it was 480 BCE. And that's why Pegrebin stands on terra firma when she says it all began "sometime in the fifth century BCE."

Random Update On One Of The Whiting Flatland Federal Wells In Twin Valley -- March 16, 2017


June 16, 2017; FracFocus does not show any re-frack for this well. This post explains why #30774 might have been taken off-line for a couple of months in 2016.
Original Post
To the best of my knowledge, this well was fracked only once. FracFocus has data for only one frack: September 17 - 23, 2015. This is the well's entire production history. Note the jump in production after being taken off-line for a couple of months in late 2016, a year after the original frack. The 5,464 bbls over 4 days extrapolates to 41,000 bbls over a 30-day month. This well continues to flow on its own according to the scout ticket. I follow this well and the other Whiting Flatland Federal wells here.

The well:
  • 30774, 1,844, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-5TFH, t10/15; cum 473K 1/17:
Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Clawing Back Climate Change Forecasts; The Political Page, T+56 -- March 16, 2017

Dems: 31% do not know who Senator Charles Schumer is. Even fewer know who this person is:

Weather service clawing back their forecast decisions regarding winter storm Stella.

Climate-changers begin clawing back their forecasts. I can't make this stuff up. Over at The Boston Globe: why are climate-change models so flawed? Because climate science is so incomplete. I can't make this stuff up. I thought the science was closed. Now, in Pocahontas' hometown paper the headline is that the science is so incomplete, not just incomplete, but SO incomplete:
"Do you believe,” CNBC’s Joe Kernen asked Scott Pruitt, the Environmental Protection Agency’s new director, in an interview last Thursday, “that it’s been proven that CO2 is the primary control knob for climate?
Replied Pruitt: “No. I think that measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do, and there’s tremendous disagreement about the degree of impact. So no — I would not agree that it’s a primary contributor to the global warming that we see. But we don’t know that yet. We need to continue the debate and continue the review and the analysis.”
It was an accurate and judicious answer, so naturally it sent climate alarmists into paroxysms of condemnation.
The Washington Post slammed Pruitt as a “denier” driven by “unreason.” Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii called Pruitt’s views “extreme” and “irresponsible” — proof of his unfitness to head the EPA. Gina McCarthy, who ran the agency under President Obama, bewailed the danger global warming poses “to all of us who call Earth home,” and said she couldn’t “imagine what additional information [Pruitt] might want from scientists” in order to understand that.
And then this, from The Boston Globe, not from the Trump appointee:
Yet for all the hyperventilating, Pruitt’s answer to the question he was asked — whether carbon dioxide is the climate’s “primary control knob” — was entirely sound.
“We don’t know that yet,” he said. We don’t. CO2 is certainly a heat-trapping greenhouse gas, but hardly the primary one: Water vapor accounts for about 95 percent of greenhouse gases.
By contrast, carbon dioxide is only a trace component in the atmosphere: about 400 ppm (parts per million), or 0.04 percent.
Moreover, its warming impact decreases sharply after the first 20 or 30 ppm. Adding more CO2 molecules to the atmosphere is like painting over a red wall with white paint — the first coat does most of the work of concealing the red. A second coat of paint has much less of an effect, while adding a third or fourth coat has almost no impact at all.

The Market And Energy Page, T+55 -- March 16, 2017

Back Over 21,000
9:04 a.m. Central Time
The Day After The Fed Raises Rates


 Weather: incredibly cold on East Coast. More snow forecast over the weekend. 

Trump budget: defense spending up; cuts to State Department, EPA.

The importance of the Oxford comma (which I swear by): over at Fortune

Trump wants to privatize air traffic control. Won't happen.

Market (Dow) open up 25 points.

WTI one cent over $49.

MBS? Mohammed bin Salman. CNBC noted. Not to be confused with MLB.


Market, WTI: everything green.

Global crude oil production: it's now clear. Russia is #1 reason for increased global oil production despite OPEC "cuts." Turns out Saudi's cuts were trivial in big scheme of things. Iran's production is also increasing substantially. Saudi can "blame" US frackers all they want, but the truth is out there. Headlines over at Rigzone:
  • Iraq plans to boost crude oil production and exports this year
  • Russia's Lukoil sees hydrocarbon output growth of 3 - 4% in 2017

Tesla raises additional funds for Model 3 debut: in The Wall Street Journal.
  • $250 million in common stock
  • $750 million in convertible notes due in 2022
  • company says it remains on track to "launch a more affordable car this year, but it needs to raise $1 billion to make sure it happens"
  • analysts had expected Tesla to seek as much as $2.5 billion

First Time Unemployment Claims Continue To Drop; March 16, 2017

Iso Express: $90 / MWH.

Jobs: first time unemployment claims --
  • forecast: 240,000
  • actual: 241,000
  • change: down 2,000
  • four-week moving average: 237,250
Active rigs:

Active Rigs4631111190185

RBN Energy: US crude oil supply / demand balances, inventories, and pricing.

Scott Adams: Start-ups that lower the cost of health care.