Monday, November 30, 2020

Notes From All Over -- In Lieu Of MNF Edition -- November 30, 2020

DeepMind: this is as big a story that will be reported all year and it will get very little coverage. But this is huge, on so many levels. This is, to some extent, the holy grail of molecular biology:

LONDON — Alphabet-owned DeepMind has developed a piece of artificial intelligence software that can accurately predict the structure that proteins will fold into in a matter of days, solving a 50-year-old “grand challenge” that could pave the way for better understanding of diseases and drug discovery.

Every living cell has thousands of different proteins inside that keep it alive and well. Predicting the shape that a protein will fold into is important because it determines their function and nearly all diseases, including cancer and dementia, are related to how proteins function.

“Proteins are the most beautiful, gorgeous structures and the ability to predict exactly how they fold up is really very, very challenging and has occupied many people over many years,” Professor Dame Janet Thornton from the European Bioinformatics Institute told journalists on a call.

British research lab DeepMind’s “AlphaFold” AI system was entered into a competition organized by a group called CASP (Critical Assessment for Structure Prediction). It’s a community experiment organization with the mission of accelerating solutions to one problem: how to compute the 3D structure of protein molecules.

Index disruptor: we discussed this earlier. Now we have the answer --

Tesla will be added to the S&P 500 in a single step despite its more than $500 billion market capitalization, S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Monday, forgoing a possible phased approach that was considered to ease the impact of adding such a large company to the U.S. stock benchmark.

The stock will be added at its full float-adjusted market capitalization before the open of trading on December 21, 2020, the index provider said. Float-adjusted means that only shares available to the public are considered when evaluating a company’s weighting. The company that Tesla will replace will be named on Dec. 11, according to a press release.

My hunch: Ralph Lauren.

Got hydrogen? Jim Cramer says Linde and Cummins

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

A Musical Interlude: I was going to post just one Jerry Jeff Walker song, but from this album, there were simply too many that would have made the cut ... so the whole album:


Best op-ed in past few weeks: another bold strike against Iran -- the lede --

Any American intelligence operative who’s worked on Iran has to tip his hat to Israel’s Mossad. The assassination Friday of Iran’s pre-eminent atomic-bomb scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and, even more impressively, the warehouse heist of the clerical regime’s nuclear archive in January 2018, shows a level of risk-taking and accomplishment that has no U.S. parallel. In June there were large, damaging explosions at the Natanz uranium enrichment site, which probably weren’t caused by shoddy maintenance.

The Central Intelligence Agency hasn’t been a particularly bold organization in decades (the aggressive interrogation of al Qaeda members may be an exception). It isn’t only the timidity of the CIA’s senior management and Washington’s political class that enfeebles Langley; it’s the absence of a mission against a state-threatening foe that focuses the mind and attracts real talent. An Iran with nukes would threaten Israel’s existence, not America’s.

Israel has been lethally penetrating the Islamic Republic for at least a decade. Mossad now appears to have stationary surveillance and hit teams positioned in the country. Given the level of internal dissent, which has spread even among children of the original Iranian revolutionaries, it’s possible Israel has acquired valuable agents in Iran’s armed forces and security services.

Though the assassinations of Fakhrizadeh and others, such as Daryoush Rezainejad in 2011, may be the work of Iranian assets in Jerusalem’s employ—Kurds may be the most accessible and motivated—the archival theft is more likely an intrusion in which Israeli officers were on the ground in command. By comparison, it’s doubtful that the CIA has ever deployed a single nonofficial-cover officer inside Iran to sustain either intelligence collection or covert action since the failed Operation Eagle Claw hostage rescue in 1980.

The office

China Flu Watch -- New York -- Snapshot In Time -- November 30, 2020

Link here.  




***********************************
The Movie Page

TCM: Monday, late afternoon, White Heat. From wiki:

White Heat is a 1949 American film noir directed by Raoul Walsh and starring James Cagney, Virginia Mayo, Edmond O'Brien, Margaret Wycherly and Steve Cochran. Written by Ivan Goff and Ben Roberts, White Heat is based on a story by Virginia Kellogg, and is considered to be one of the best gangster movies of all time
In 2003, it was added to the National Film Registry as being "culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant" by the United States Library of Congress.

Wow, first time I had seen it. It is very, very good. 

Holy Mackerel! I Have To Take A Break -- More On This Well Later -- November 30, 2020

Note: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Nomenclature for MRO wells in the Bakken:

  • H: middle Bakken
  • TFH: Three Forks, first bench
  • TFH-2B: Three Forks, second bench

Record IPS are tracked at this link

The well:

  • 37283, drl/A, MRO, Marion USA 4-10TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 139K over 45 days; 217K 11/20; API: 3-053-09324; fracked 7/24/20 - 9/10/20; 7 million gallons of water; 70% water by mass; note completion strategies at sidebar at the right;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-202030110439110134565891378241303031077
SANISH8-20201528319279321997530120266111815

For newbies: in the early days of the Bakken, we were happy if a well produced 150,000 bbls of oil in two years. Now, we're routinely seeing 150,000 bbls in six months. And then we have wells like this one. The Antelope-Sanish, I believe, is the best field in the Bakken. 

See this post from last month

Other wells of interest. These wells have been previously posted. 

  • 29208, 2,533, MRO, Lun USA 11-14H, Reunion Bay, t6/15; cum 287K 12/20;
  • 29209, 2,776, MRO, Ernesting USA 11-14TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t6/15; cum 397K 12/20;
  • 29210, 2,900/AB, MRO, Tony Lun USA 12-14TFH, Reunion Bay, t6/15; cum 365K 7/18;
  • 29211, 2,929, MRO, Doll USA 120-14H, Reunion Bay, t6/15; cum 538K 12/20; see full report here;
  • 37286, drl/A-->AL/A, MRO, Strand USA 44-10TFH-2B, t--; cum 142K in 2.5 months; cum 162K 12/20;
  • 37284, drl/A-->AL/A, , MRO, Mandan USA 34-10H, t--; cum 155K in 3 months; cum 201K 12/20;
  • 37283, drl/A-->AL/A, MRO, Marion USA 44-10TFH, t--; cum 217K in 2.5 months;  cum 267K 12/20;
  • 37282, drl/A, MRO, Dragswolf USA 34-10TFH, t--; cum 248K in 3.5 months; cum 300K 12/20;
  • 34100, 4,857, MRO, Nora Jones USA 12-14TFH-2B, t10/18; cum 428K 11/20; cum 433K 12/20;
  • 34101, 4,966, MRO, Briek USA 13-14H, t11/18; cum 471K 11/20;  cum 475K 12/20;
  • 34102, 4,488, MRO, Julia Jones USA 13-14TFH, t11/18; cum 355K 11/20; cum 361K 12/20;
  • 34103, 7,471, MRO, Dye USA 14-14TFH-2B, t10/18; cum 504K 12/20; full production here;
  • 34104, 5,747, MRO, Hammerberg USA 14-14H, t10/18; cum 446K 12/20;
  • 33980, 6,113, MRO, Michelle USA 14-14TFH, t10/18; cum 271K 12/20;
  • 33981, 5,386, MRO, Phyllis USA 11-23H, t11/18; cum 287K 12/10;
  • 33982, 6,325, MRO, Clara USA 11-23TFH-2B, t10/18; cum 443K 12/20;
  • 21172, 5,067, MRO, TAT USA12-23H, Reunion Bay, t11/18; cum 359K 12/20;
BAKKEN1-201931495964959648097627794819811266
BAKKEN12-201823430604319939573636254319617648
BAKKEN11-20182248708481444514166202788358241
  • 19321, 1,274, MRO, Danks USA 11-3H, Antelope-Sanish, t8/11; cum 649K 12/20; no jump in production; but a huge steady Eddy; jump in production, 9/20;
  • 36914, drl/A-->AL/A, MRO, Keyes USA 21-3H, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 5/20; t--; cum 269K 12/20; 51,150 bbls over 11 days extrapolates to 139,500 bbls over 30 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-202030660596588233891890766106323110
SANISH8-20202429964297526984038235307705234
SANISH7-20201231655315268004393912027617006
SANISH6-2020004520000
SANISH5-20201151150506981726973704070766
SANISH4-202030010555190518
  • 36915, drl/A-->AL/A, MRO, Ardella USA 21-3TFH-2B, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 5/20;, t--; cum 313K 12/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-202030643076393936392936026538423321
SANISH8-20202311942120893411017982133963676
SANISH7-202024695346928530076962464821243334
SANISH6-20202380242721524442604217
SANISH5-20201656980564763589975316072037
SANISH4-20202002801500150
  • 36912, drl/A-->AL/A, MRO, Prairie Chicken USA 11-3TFH, first production, 5/20; Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 357K 12/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-2020304046540591216011011446976327704
SANISH8-202031389363879833932713195646811640
SANISH7-2020317484275082411051170426351748256
SANISH6-202029615536154040099871334115441816
SANISH5-20202260188598425420682971079494
SANISH4-20204906488781125612130011601

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The Graphics




No New Permits -- November 30, 2020

Mark Perry: risk is the very soul of our existence.

Active rigs:

$45.34
11/30/202011/30/201911/30/201811/30/201711/30/2016
Active Rigs1457665439

No new permits.

Fifteen permits renewed:

  • CLR (8: two Marlene permits in Williams County; six Sodbuster permits in Williams County
  • EOG (4): three Austin permits in Mountrail County; one Clearwater permit in Mountrail County;
  • Enerplus (2): one Hail permit and one Sleet permit
  • Oasis: one Borden Federal permit in Williams County

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 35597, SI/A, Enerplus, Cumulus 149-94-33C-28H, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 204K 9/20;
  • 35970, drl/A, Enerplus, Isle Royal 148-95-02A-11H-TF-LL, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 123K 9/20;
  • 37277, drl/A, Newfield, Newman 150-97-21-16-12H, Siverston, no production data,
  • 37283, drl/A, MRO, Marion USA 4-10TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 139K over 45 days

A WPX Grizzly Well In Spotted Horn Just Went Over 500K Bbls Cumulative Crude Oil -- November 30, 2020

This page will not be updated; this well is tracked elsewhere.

The well;

  • 32684, 2,695, WPX, Grizzly 24-13HG, Spotted Horn, t3/17; cum 502K 10/20;

A BR Anderson Ranch Well In Camel Butte Goes Over 540K Bbls Cumulative Oil -- November 30, 2020

This well is tracked elsewhere; this page will not be updated. 

The well:

  • 32628, 540, BR, Anderson Ranch 3B-TFH, Camel Butte, huge well, t5/17; cum 509K 9/20; offline 8/19; remains off line 9/19;

An Old Whiting Chameleon Well In Banks Back On Line, Producing -- November 30, 2020

This well is tracked elsewhere; this page will not be updated.

The well:

  • 32764, 2,403, Whiting, Chameleon State 31-16HU, Banks, API: 33-053-07649; t10/16; cum 190K 9/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202021150014541831421029671239
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-202070120000
BAKKEN2-2020105255591349364103622
BAKKEN1-2020311869185624071003709978

The Enerplus Honor Well On Its Patriot Pad Is Back On Line And Producing -- November 30, 2020

This well is followed elsewhere. This page won't be updated. Note that this well is back on line and back in production:

  • 23541, IA/1,545, Enerplus Resources, Honor 150-94-06B-18H TF, Spotted Horn, t6/14; cum 690K 4/20; off line 5/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202029507143911782887536962047
BAKKEN8-202011313324717
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-2020182682270615806200433780
BAKKEN3-20202947384789359586576676142
BAKKEN2-202029507652263637107228727152
BAKKEN1-202030524152863587105728662157

Wells That I No Longer Track -- Page 16

For first fifteen pages in this series, see this link; scroll to bottom of that page.

I no longer track these wells as wells that need to be followed up:  

August 23, 2019: the Finsaas wells -- #26855; #26854; #27840; #27841; sporadic production across the wells, 5/20;

August 19, 2019: #17658, a short lateral; off line most of 6/19; remains off line 9/20; IA; AB; 34398, 3,347, WPX, Lion 18-19HX, Mandaree, t7/19; cum 339K 10/20 -- huge well; the WPX Lion wells are tracked here; off line 10/20; back on line 11/20;

August 5, 2019: two EOG wells off line in Clarks Creek; #22487; #22486; no production jump in first full month back on status, 8/19; check another month or so; both came off line 9/19; one has returned to production; one remains off line; #22486 back on line 10/19 for 16 days; both back on line, 10/19; both off line 12/19; remain off line 5/20; coming back on line 7/20; 8/20: nice jump in production for #22487; nice jump in production for #22486;

April 11, 2020: #36653, #36654, #36655, #36656, #36657, #36658 -- see this post -- see production profiles here;

May 18, 2020: #18245, neighboring wells fracked; coming back on line, 3/20; also, #22982, #22801 (nice jump already); #27021; #27022;

September 29, 2020: 17612, AB/IA/4,345, Whiting, Maki 11-27H, Sanish, t10/09; cum 882K 11/29; off line 12/19; remains off line 7/20; open hole frack; 3.6 million lbs sand; off line in 2019, but at least three wells will be drilled and fracked in the immediate area; link here;

December 5, 2020: #20354: Vardon -- CLR; back on line after being off line for almost a year; neighboring wells fracked.  Note: early February, 2021, another Vardon well will come off confidential list. #20354 -- not particularly noteworthy after coming back on line;

January 18, 2021: #22550, #22551; older EN-Labar wells; many newer EN-Labar wells fracked 5/20; #22550 #22551 coming back on line 1/21; great wells. 

December 5, 2020: #18055: two wells on this 3-well pad recently fracked; #18055 is IA and has been offline for over a year suggesting that Whiting will abandon it; now AB (noted Jan 24, 2021)

April 10, 2020: #19116; an MRO Bailey oil field well; neighboring wells being fracked; off line 1/20; just coming back on line, 4/20;

April 26, 2020: Whiting #19857; came off line 12/19; with many wells in area being fracked;

April 27, 2020: #26158; off line 12/19; remains off line 5/20; back on line 8/20; 6,000 bbls, 9/20;

July 22, 2020: #34601, $34602 -- no sand in these two fracks? Of course not. I don't know what that was all about. NDIC frack report for #34601 shows 41 stages; sand frack; 8.5 million lbs sand; 8.3 million gallons of water; IP of 3,576 bbls; for #34602: 41 stages; sand frack; 8.4 million lbs sand; 7.9 million gallons of water; IP of 4,964 bbls;

August 13, 2020: neighboring well, huge; see what this well does --

  • 20287, 1,244, MRO, Johnson 44-32H, Reunion Bay, t10/11; cum 329K 9/20; off line1/20; remains off line 6/20; coming back on line 8/20; came back into production nicely;

October 5, 2019: #17102;  a lousy Kaiser Francis well; taken over by Kraken; now off line as of 6/19; remains off line 9/20; now AB;

October 23, 2018:  #18250 parallels the wells coming from this 5-well pad; still off line; back on line for a few days in 11/19; one day 12/10; #33737 is on a 5-well pad; this one was the first to report; the others are SI/NC, but I believe they have all been fracked; will soon report; #18250 was IA; 1/19 -- now back on A status, 10/19; three days of production in 2/19; still off line as of 4/19; back on line 5/19 but no production; no production, 7/19; remains off line 9/19; two days production 10/19 with minimal production; 2,000 bbls over 10 days, 11/19; continue to follow; the five-well pad: #33736 - #33739, inclusive, all have been fracked; see this note; need to see what #18250 does; intermittent production since 6/17; still struggling; off line, 3/20; back on line? one day of production, 5/20; update here, August 15, 2020; see this note; update here, November 12, 2020; t5/10; cum 311K 10/20; 

Huge Petro-Hunt Well Back On Confidential Status; The Well Will Be Lengthened -- November 30, 2020

One doesn't see this often, but I expect we will start seeing this more often going forward

This well was drilled back in 2006 and had produced just less than 1.8 million bbls of crude oil by April, 2020. Then, all of a sudden it was placed back on confidential.

Screenshot of sundry form, undated, but appears to have been submitted on/about September 22, 2020:

It appears the well will be increasd from 13,689' to 15,204', which represents an 11% increased in length. 

Coincidentally, this morning I was wondering whatever happened to "re-entry" wells. LOL.

The well:

  • 16059, 729, Petro-Hunt, USA 2D-3-1H, Charlson field, t10/06; cum 1.776024 million bbls 4/20; still producing 6,000 bbls/month, 11/19; update at this post; off line 5/20; remains off line 6/20; two days in 7/20; there was no production, 5/20 - 6/20; then two days in July, 2020, and now on confidential list.
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20201740
4-202037223454
3-202064373014
2-202048750
1-202052700
12-201948320
11-201938130
10-201947590

*********************
Bakken Trivia

I remember when I first started blogging about the Bakken, I was told by an "expert" that once a well had been on the confidential list and then came off the confidential, it could never go back on the confidential list. 

We've learned a lot over the years.

Notes From All Over -- Morning Edition -- November 30, 2020

Top story today: Chinese flu.

Much less brown, and where there is brown, it is lighter in color, compared to some weeks ago:

Foreshadowing: playing with his dog over the weekend, Joe Biden breaks his leg. The big question: was the dog a gift from Hillary? I was going to say the dog was no "Lassie," but I'm beginning to wonder?

Top investing story: GM says "no";

  • Nikola imploding

The market: mixed at opening; now all three indices "red"

  • tea leaves: profit taking -- locking in best November in years; 
    • Dow drops 300 points and still above 29,600?
  • tea leaves: market setting investors up for "Santa Claus rally"

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

S&P Global: to buy IHS Market for $45 billion. Nice history of both companies.

Dividend stocks: "ten best" -- just for the fun of it. These "dividend" articles are dime a dozen.

Mexican Tecate beer: made by Heineken in Holland. Who knew? Wow. I'm really, really disappointed in Heineken and the mainstream press for not reporting this story for years, if the NY Post article is accurate. Wiki says the brew is made in Mexico, at least as I read it.. There must be more to the story. 

Debacle: nearly one-third of NY, NY small businesses reportedly closed -- permanently? -- in 2020. Fox Business News is reporting.

Hindsight is 20-20: going back to January, 2020

Apple vs Microsoft: this was in early trading -- 

Among the Dow Jones leaders, Apple (AAPL) rose 2%, while Microsoft (MSFT) moved down 1% in today's stock market. If this holds, speaks volumes about Apple's new M1 chip and Black Friday sales. 

********************************
Flashback: SRE and Oncor

August 21, 2017, Reuters: Sempra Energy to buy Oncor for $9.45 billion in blow for Berkshire. 
March 9, 2018, press release: Sempra Energy completes acquisition of majority stake in Oncor. 

***************************
Texas: Renewable Energy Surging

This will be America's largest solar energy project. Period. Dot. Link here. This is huge. 

When completed, the center will provide power for AT&T, Honda, McDonald’s, Google, Home Depot, and the cities of Bryan, Denton and Garland.

It's impossible to articulate how much growth there is in

  • north Texas (Dallas, Ft Worth, Denton, Roanoke)

and, I'm assuming there is similar growth in

  • south Texas (San Antonio)
  • mid-Texas (Austin)
  • west Texas (the Permian)
  • east Texas (Houston)
  • along the coast (Corpus Christi).  

Denton has really, really surprised me. When we first arrived in Texas, water polo practice and tournaments were often held in Denton. The town seemed a bit sleepy -- that was in 2013. Now, it's completely different -- expanding at breakneck speed. Yeah, they need more electricity.  

The Samson Solar Center will be located in Lamar, Red River and Franklin counties. The project involves a $1.6 billion capital investment and will support up to 600 jobs throughout the 36-month construction period.

The project is expected to benefit local economies by bringing more than $250 million in payments to landowners and supporting local communities through nearly $200 million in property-tax payments over the lifetime of the project.

Link here: https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/solar-power-booms-in-texas.

Counties of interest, Texas:

  • Red county: Dallas County
    • surrounding counties: Denton (Denton and part of Plano), Collin (Plano), Rockwall, Kaufman, Ellis, Johnson, Tarrant  (Ft Worth).
  • 1  - 3: solar energy counties, Lamar, Red River, and Franklin
  • 4: Bexar ("bear") County: San Antonio
  • 5: Travis County (Austin)
  • 6: Harris County (Houston)
  • 7: Nueces County (Corpus Christi)
  • 8: Midland County (Midland)
  • 9: Ector County (Odessa)

***********************
Sports

It's beyond me why Steven A. Smith celebrates boxing. Speaks volumes abut Smith. Even after a boxer is almost killed Smith still celebrates the sport. I just don't get it. Cock-fighting is illegal, but not boxing.

October Production Being Reported On Scout Tickets; Only Well Coming Off Confidential List -- November 30, 2020

First things first: Chinese flu watch. Check out graphic at The WSJ. It's behind a paywall but I will post it in a few minutes. 

OPEC basket: l$46.66.

***************************************
Back to the Bakken

Production data for October, 2020, is starting to be posted on the scout tickets. 

Active rigs:

$45.30
11/30/202011/30/201911/30/201811/30/201711/30/2016
Active Rigs1457665439

Only one well coming off the confidential list today --

Monday, November 30: 32 for the month; 56 for the quarter, 721 for the year

  • None.

Sunday, November 29: 32 for the month; 56 for the quarter, 721 for the year

  • 36970, drl/A, Hess, TI-Nelson-157-94-3031H-2, Tioga, t--; cum 93K 10/20;

Saturday, November 28: 31 for the month; 55 for the quarter, 720 for the year

  • None.

RBN Energy: could US propane demand plus exports draw down inventories enough to spike prices, part 2?

Amid all the turmoil and negative news in energy markets this year, U.S. propane has been the exception, turning in a stellar performance. Even with exports up almost 10% in November from the same period last year, averaging 1.3 MMb/d for the month, inventories remain in good shape at 92.6 MMbbl, or about 5% above stocks in November 2019. Part of the reason has been strong production numbers, which are down only 5% since January, and up a whopping 14% since May. Weather has been another contributor to robust stock levels, with November 2020 coming in as one of the warmest on record. But winter is just arriving. And with export volumes now greater than total U.S. winter consumption, market dynamics have shifted. It now takes more inventory in the ground throughout the winter to support the combination of U.S. demand and exports. But how much more inventory is enough? And how should we factor in the potential for further increases in exports? At the same time, the market is still facing the possibility of another round of declining production due to COVID-related drilling cutbacks. This blog series is about making sense of what’s going on in the propane market today, and what may be coming up in the months ahead. 

In Part 1, we started by showing how strong propane prices have been this year on a relative basis, meaning in comparison to crude oil. Focusing on the period between June and November, in 2019 the price of propane was only 34% of crude, while this year it has averaged a much higher 53%. (As a general rule, propane is considered to be expensive relative to crude when that ratio is above 50%, and cheaper when the ratio is below 50%.) Which begs the question, why would propane prices be so strong in 2020 when in 2019 prices were weak relative to crude?

One clue has been the magnitude of export growth relative to domestic consumption during the winter season. Total winter domestic demand has been relatively steady, ranging between just under 1.0 MMb/d in 2016-17, up to a high of almost 1.2 MMb/d in 2013-14. Demand the last couple of winters has averaged about 1.1 MMb/d. In contrast, export volumes have stepped up almost every year for the past decade — in both the summer and winter, with no discernable seasonal pattern. Exports are up from about 0.6 MMb/d in 2015 to 1.3 MMb/d in November 2020. In winter 2019-20, exports exceeded average domestic demand for the first time.