Friday, March 24, 2023

Week 12: March 19, 2023 -- March 25, 2023

The single best story:

Top story:

  • Joe Biden is still president
  • Former president was not arrested this week; Dems got "cold feet."

Top international non-energy story:

  • Russian-Ukraine war continues
    • Russia "grabs" US Global Hawk it downed over Black Sea
  • Shooting war developing between Iran - US over Syria

Top international energy story


Top national non-energy story:

  • Federal Reserve backs off; raises prime rate only 25 basis points after global banking panic;

Top national energy story


Javier Blas:

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:


Top North Dakota energy story:


Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment:

 

No New Permits But Still Lots Of Bakken Activity -- March 24, 2023

Locator: 10010STATE.

March Madness: with University of Florida (Miami) defeating #1 Houston, not one #1 ranked team made it to the Elite Eight. 

Update: see this post.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 47.

WTI: $69.26.

Natural gas: $2.216.

No new permits.

Nineteen permits renewed:

  • XTO (11): four Henry Federal permits (McKenzie): three Frisinger permits (Williams); four Kenneth permits (Williams)
  • BR (8): five Mazama permits (McKenzie); two George and one George-Lillibridge (McKenzie)

Three permits canceled:

  • EOG (2): two Hardscrabble permits (Williams)
  • White Rock: a BSMU permit (Billings)

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38513, 920, CLR, Thorp Federal 3-28H1, no production;
  • 38515, 920, CLR, Thorp Federal 5-28H1, no production;
  • 37009, 1,025, CLR, LCU Reckitt Federal 3-22H1, minimal production
  • 38766, 545, Murex, KC-Nash Parker 17-20H MB, Midway (northwest of Tioga), t--; cum 7K over 18 days;
  • 37418, 495, Petro-Hunt, Powell 159-93-31C-30-3H, East Tioga, t--; cum 1458 bbls over 6 days extrapolates to 7,300 bbls/30 days;
  • 37630, 4,419, Grayson Mill, State 35-2 XW 1H, Stony Creek, t--; cum no production data; sited at SESW 25-155-100;

Wells of interest:

  • 37630, 4,419, Grayson Mill, State 35-2 XW 1H, Stony Creek, t--; cum no production data; sited at SESW 25-155-100;
  • 19216, 3,442, Grayson Mill, Sate 36-1 3H, t6/12; cum 333K 1/23; 3,792 bbls over nine days extrapolates to 12,640 bbls over 30 days; compare to 1,000 bbls over 30 days prior to neighboring fracks;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20239379228913995247254894204
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-202200430000
BAKKEN9-2022002460000
BAKKEN8-2022124427603343153150
BAKKEN7-2022301023102410827357350
BAKKEN6-2022301089110411465865860
BAKKEN5-202292961993381901900
  • 19215, unremarkable;
  • 18307, 3,236, Grayson Mill, State 36-1 1-H, t1/10; cum 408K 1/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2023386308528243402380
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-20220000000
BAKKEN9-20220000000
BAKKEN8-20221045687047844436678
BAKKEN7-20222915641710115314661127339
BAKKEN6-20222911971137119295286389
BAKKEN5-202293152352651441422

At Powerline, Apparently Interest Payments Vs Defense Spending As Percent Of GDP Is "A Thing" -- March 24, 2023

Apparently this is "a thing" over at Powerline this week. A reader sent me this link as that site's chart of the day. Again, the chart was provided without context, one of my pet peeves.

Peter Zeihan addresses this, and I've talked about it many, many times on the blog.

A bit of context:


 

Spend some time on the graph:

  • of the nine countries opposite the US, several exceed Russia's spending; those spending less than Russia barely spend less, and include: Germany (shame, shame),  the UK (shame, shame), Japan (which has constraints following WWII), South Korea (who has only one adversary);
  • Saudi Arabia spends almost as much as Russia;
  • China spends almost 5x what Russia spends:
  • I believe Russia has one a/c carrier;
  • the graph does not depict "bang for buck"; my hunch: US weaponry and quality of troops far exceeds any of the other nine and against Russia, there's absolutely no comparison;
  • India? #2 behind China? I would not have guessed.

Compare the green graph (below) with the Powerline graph at the top. 

  • US military spending represents less than 5% of the country's GDP;
  • non-defense spending in the US is trending toward that of 2010, as percent of GDP;
  • from wiki:

US interest payments as percent of GDP, according to Powerline graph: 3.5%.

Ask yourself, as a percent of a typical American's net worth, what percent is tied up in interest payments, including interest on vehicles, credit cards, and housing?

  • average debt
    • if one takes $60,000 as the average debt of an American adult
    • two in a household, $120,000 -- average debt of an American couple
    • and then one takes average net worth of a two-person household at $600,000,
  • one gets
    • one adult debt ($60,000) / net worth per household: 10% interest payments vs net worth;
    • for a two-adult household ($120,000) net worth per household: 20% interest payments vs net worth
  • my numbers may be way off, but that's fine: use your own numbers; start with these two sites:

Then consider that San Francisco, as a city, feels so rich, it's ready to give a million bucks in reparations to a bunch of folks ($1 million / individual -- and that amount is being negotiated upward).

Had I been asked about the Powerline graph before seeing it, I would have expected it to be much worse. 

If you want to "impress" one's audience, one want to start the graph at 1975, not at 1925.

Non-defense spending as percent of debt:

  • 1975: 14.85%
  • 2025: 19%

I don't see a huge amount of difference, but then I'm always wearing oil-stained rose-colored glasses.

On another note, the energy situation in the US versus the rest of the world (the 21st century will be America's century) will widen the GDP gap between America and the rest of the world. By a lot. If US defense spending maintains at same percent of GDP the dollar amount spent by the US will be even greater than the nine next countries combined.

Ford Announces New EV Pickup -- March 24, 2023

Link to EV scorecard.

Ford's next-generation "true-to-truck," T3 EV pickup": link at Yahoo!Finance.

  • to be built at Ford's BlueOval City plant in Tennessee
  • will begin production in 2025
  • no additional details regarding the truck itself except to note its battery source
  • will invest $5.6 billion to develop the BlueOval City complex
  • part of the reason Ford projects a $3 billion adjusted EBIT loss for 2023
  • battery: newcomer EV battery manufacturer SK On; link here.

SK On: 

A former division of billionaire Chey Tae-won’s SK conglomerate, Seoul-based electric vehicle battery manufacturer SK On has huge ambitions. 
Its co-CEO Jee Dong-seob explains how it will become the world’s largest supplier of EV batteries by 2030.SK On is currently the fifth-largest supplier of EV batteries in the world at a capacity of 13.2 gigawatt hours (or gwh, the standard measure for EV battery output).
The company’s annual battery sales hit $2.3 billion in 2021, up from $1.2 billion a year earlier and $530 million in 2019, when the company ranked as the ninth-largest battery maker. “What really stands out is that we are the world’s fastest-growing battery maker,” says Jee.

Changes In Latitude, Changes In Attitude -- Peter Zeihan On Texas -- March 24, 2023

From this link, Peter Zeihan:

I may have ditched the "howdys" and "y'alls" for the high mountains of Colorado, but Austin remains part of one of the fastest-growing economic and urban zones in the western hemisphere. However, Austin can't credit all of its success to the "Keep Austin Weird" bumper stickers...

The key here is in the neighborhood. It's a blue city in a red state, so they get low taxes and a high level of city services. More importantly, Austin falls right in the middle of the Texas Triangle - a zone comprised of San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas.

Houston is an energy hub and heavy into manufacturing. Dallas is an auto and aerospace hub. Both of those are financial centers in their own way. San Antonio offers a low cost of living and low labor costs. Austin happens to be the missing piece in the Texas Triangle, high-end tech. Austin can operationalize the research the other cities need and disseminate the plans from there.

It doesn’t look like Austin’s growth will be slowing down anytime soon. As the world faces deglobalization, Texas (the triangle specifically) will play a critical role for the US.

Amazon Delivery -- Incredible -- But Can They Keep It Up? March 24, 2023

Amazon delivery: my thoughts -- Amazon may have to re-consider delivery fees -- I have Amazon Prime. With Amazon Prime there is no additional fee for non-grocery item deliveries no matter how small. 

  • This week I ordered the following as individual orders from Amazon:
    • a small Japanese package of pressed, dried leaves (wife's art project) -- $16;
    • an Amazon 3-hole punch -- forget price; obviously under $10;
    • a metal mini-cupcake pan: $8.99 or thereabouts; 
    • 9" x 12" manila envelope -- again, I forget the price, but each envelope cost sixteen cents;
    • an Amazon Echo -- $19; used to be $25 (when on sale); to replace a $500-Bose that finally died after forty years of use -- this certainly puts a dent in inflation
    • Keurig Starbucks Pikes Place K-cups: around $60 for 100-count; 60 cents each.
  • I used to consolidate orders but now I simply order things as I think of them.
  • The dried leaves were needed for an art class this weekend; ordered on Wednesday with next day delivery; arrived last night at 10:30 p.m.

 ******************************
Amazon Fees For Grocery Delivery

Re-posted from January 29, 2023 -- just three months ago (I had already forgotten):

When I see the following "words" in one sentence, it's not good: Amazon delivery $10 $150.  

At almost $10 for deliveries under $50, Amazon is telling its customers: we're done with this craziness. I've heard folks with Amazon Prime tell me they didn't think twice about ordering four bananas as their complete grocery order. Absolutely crazy. 

Link to The Verge.


It would be surprising if Target and Walmart didn't follow suit, as they say. 

Link here.

This is a huge story. I'm not exactly sure how it plays out, but I'm sure everyone will have an opinion on it. 

I think it's one of the bigger news stories of the week and it seems to be getting no attention. So, we'll see. 

Amazon must have been losing a lot of money on groceries to "sock it to" its Prime members at the amount. It makes one wonder if Amazon will look at its other delivery costs.

But back to food.

Are there three broad areas of food delivery?

  • grocery delivery, like Target, Amazon, Walmart, Costco?
  • meals-to-prepare at home (meal kits), like Blue Apron?
  • meals-ready-to-eat, like DoorDash and Grubhub?

The last category can be divided into three sub-categories:

  • fast food delivery: McDonald's, Starbucks
  • pizza; and,
  • restaurants more upscale than McDonald's;

So, the first one, grocery delivery: this business will grow significantly but the business model will also be tweaked significantly; costs will go up.

Meals-to-prepare at home (meal kits)? Perhaps more than a passing fad, but not for me. Perhaps best purpose: date night. Plan a Friday night "date night" and order early in the week. 

By the way, one would think that this would be a huge competitor to "mail-order steak services" like Omaha Steaks and/or ButcherBox. Costco has really, really good steak options at a much, much better price than "mail-order steak services" and it's easier / less expensive to buy steak for two people / one meal (Costco) than buying the typically much larger order from a "mail-order steak service" (Omaha Steaks).

DoorDash and Grubhub: will definitely get more expensive. Interestingly, pizza delivery might be the beneficiary, as folks tire of wilted Fries and other fast foods that don't travel well. Does sushi travel well at all?

Ford -- An EV Company -- For The Archives -- March 24, 2023

Updates

Later, 4:19 p.m. CT: too big to fail. A WSJ op-ed.

Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

For the archives.

I've traded in and out of Ford over the years, but nothing recently. 

Readers must know, by now, that, even with a rolling 30-year horizon, and despite a >%5 dividend, EVs are not for me.

Ford has now declared itself an EV company and that's how I now follow Ford, along with:

  • Tesla
  • Rivian
  • Arrival
  • Lucid
  • Lordstown, and,
  • more than a dozen others.

Question for the day -- what's behind Ford's decision to "break out" EV costs? Answers to the above two questions fall in these three arenas.

  • reassure Ford shareholders;
  • after three years of increasing losses, ready to report an improvement;
  • going head-to-head with Tesla

Also, this question:

  • why a special dividend at this time?

Ford announced this week that it is a "new company," with five divisions, and will now break out earnings for its EV division. This is huge, and raises two questions:

  • why did Ford make the decision to break out earnings for its EV division; and,
  • why now?

Ford dividend: hand-in-glove with the above question is Ford's dividend -- particularly the special dividend --  at which we will also take a look. 

Ford dividend: history.

  • 20 lines; if dividends paid quarterly, 20 lines should go back five years -- to 2018
  • dividend:
    • 1996: 35 cents;
    • 1997: 42 cents;
    • 1998: 48 cents;
    • 2000: 50 cents;
    • 2001: 15 cents;
    • 2002: 10 cents;
    • 2006: 5 cents;
    • 2006 - 2011: dividend suspended; almost a full five years lost;
    • 2012: 5 cents;
    • 2015: 15 cents;

Shares before / after announcement of 65-cent-extra:

  • 3/14/23: $11.93
  • 3/23/23: $11.42

Forbes: link here.

Financhhill: link here, undated.

Critical floor: $10.

Financials:

  • outstanding shares: 4,021,000,000 shares.
  • 60 cents / share regular dividend for the year + 65 cents / share special dividend, 2023 = $1.25 / share
  • 1.25 x 4,021,000,000 = $5.03 billion forecast to be paid in 2023

EV division loss:

  • 2023: forecast -- $3 billion
  • 2022: $2.1 billion
  • 2021: $900 million

EPS -- Ford:

  • Ford Motor 2022 annual EPS was $-0.49, a 111.01% decline from 2021.
  • Ford Motor 2021 annual EPS was $4.45, a 1490.63% decline from 2020.

Comments:

  • glad to see that $167-savings on a $100,000-truck
  • "low-end" F-150s can be had for $35,000 suggesting a huge mark-up / margin for the Raptor

Bottom line:

  • BOD decision with regard to dividend / special dividend and the decision to break out earnings for its EV division:
    • it points to a "belief" by the BOD that Ford is going to announce huge reversal of fortunes for its EV division and huge earnings for fiscal year 2023

TGIF -- March 24, 2023

North Dakota sports: curling legislated as state sport

Comment: I haven't watched CNBC in the past week or so. I don't watch CNBC when the market tanks. But I will bet that the CNBC panelists on Fast Money who called for the Fed to raise "the rate" by another 75 basis points are now concerned that the global economy is crashing, banks are failing, and, the stock market is tanking because the Fed raised rates too fast, too high and said, "higher longer." They're probably now calling on the Fed to cut rates sooner than later.

Comment: folks are starting to suggest that 4% inflation is not all bad considering that most of that "inflation" is out of the Fed's control and 4% inflation looks a whole lot better than a repeat of the global "1929" depression. That nine percent inflation: due almost completely to the price of used cars.

Enbridge: won't be able to begin construction on Line 5 until 2026. The Federal regulators decided it needed more time to study the permit request. But just think: all that Enbridge money set aside for building the Great Lakes line will now be available for dividends and buybacks. I'm loving it. 

Moat.

Weeknd

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source

Personal investing: my next scheduled "buying week" is next week, but I couldn't resist. I added to my Deere position yesterday, and it looks like today could be even better for long-term investors. 

Personal investing:

  • buy second and fourth week of every month; regardless of market action;
  • rolling 30-year horizon
  • laser-focused on dividends
  • "40-30-20-5 -5"
  • 40%: Fortune 500; BRK-safe; dividend paying;
  • 30%: tech including copper
  • 20%: ? -- transitioning from oil to something else (?); only because I'm way over-weight in oil;
  • 5%: Big Pharma
  • 5%: Daimler
  • most important criteria for making the "buying bucket"
    • company must have a wide moat (very rare exceptions)
    • company must pay a "decent" divided (some exceptions) 
    • no foreign companies (two exceptions -- special cases)
    • no "meme stocks" (no exceptions)

Copper: link here

Freeport: down over 26% over the past year. 

Freeport: link here. Dividend paid in February, 2023: 7.5 cents.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. announced today that its Board of Directors declared cash dividends of $0.15 per share on FCX’s common stock payable on May 1, 2023, to shareholders of record as of April 14, 2023. The declaration includes a base dividend of $0.075 per share and variable dividend of $0.075 per share in accordance with FCX's performance-based payout framework.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) announced today that its Board of Directors declared cash dividends of $0.15 per share on FCX’s common stock payable on May 1, 2023, to shareholders of record as of April 14, 2023. The declaration includes a base dividend of $0.075 per share and variable dividend of $0.075 per share in accordance with FCX's performance-based payout framework.

WTI Drops Almost $3 / Bbl; One Well Coming Off Confidential List Today -- March 24, 2023

Reminder: second day of "Sweet 16," NCAA Men's tournament. Four games starting after 6:00 p.m. tonight. Updated bracket here.

Retirement: link to The WSJ.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 46.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $67.23.

Natural gas: $2.215.

Sunday, March 26, 2023: 80 for the month: 244 for the quarter, 244 for the year
39220, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Charlotte Elizabeth 2-34-27-159N-100W-MBH,
39196, conf, CLR, Boe State 5-16H,

Saturday, March 25, 2023: 78 for the month: 242 for the quarter, 242 for the year
39219, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Charlotte Elizabeth 34-27-159N-100W-MBH,
39197, conf, CLR, Boe State 6-16H,
30860, conf, BR, Rollacleetwood 11-27MBH ULW,

Friday, March 24, 2023: 77 for the month: 239 for the quarter, 239 for the year
39198, conf, CLR, Boe State 7-16H,

RBN Energy: pulling back the curtain on North America's crude oil trading market. By Rusty Braziel.

Trading in the highly integrated US/Canadian crude oil market is undergoing a profound transformation, driven mostly by the pull of exports off the Gulf Coast. But the shifts in flows, values and even the trade structures being used today are not well understood outside a small cadre of professional traders and marketers.
Consider a few examples: Domestic sweet oil traded at Cushing on NYMEX is not West Texas Intermediate — WTI at Cushing has averaged a hefty $1.80/bbl over NYMEX for the past year. Most spot Houston and Midland crudes trade as buy-sell swaps. WTI in Houston trades at a discount to Corpus Christi and sweet crudes in Louisiana. Crude in Wyoming trades at a premium to Cushing. And the Gulf Coast is the highest-value market for Canadian heavy crude.
This is not your father’s (or mother’s) oil trading game. Our mission in this blog series is to pull back the curtain on physical crude trading in North America, explain how it works, what sets the price, and who is doing the deals.

From the daily activity report yesterday, March 23, 2023:

No new permits.

Five permits renewed:

  • Formentera Operations (4): Marauder and Shorty (Divide), RNL1-A and RNL1-C (Burrke)
  • Enerplus: Morgan (incomplete data on daily activity report)

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38514, 1,810, CLR, Dunn County;
  • 37008, 490, CLR, Williams County;
  • 36998, 541, CLR, Williams County;
  • 37420, 392, Petro-Hunt, Burke County;
  • 39262, 1,962, Grayson Mill, Williams County;
  • 38713, 448, Murex, Williams County;
  • 38714, 475, Murex, Williams County;