Ford -- An EV Company -- For The Archives -- March 24, 2023

Updates

Later, 4:19 p.m. CT: too big to fail. A WSJ op-ed.

Original Post

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Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

For the archives.

I've traded in and out of Ford over the years, but nothing recently. 

Readers must know, by now, that, even with a rolling 30-year horizon, and despite a >%5 dividend, EVs are not for me.

Ford has now declared itself an EV company and that's how I now follow Ford, along with:

• Tesla
• Rivian
• Arrival
• Lucid
• Lordstown, and,
• more than a dozen others.

Question for the day -- what's behind Ford's decision to "break out" EV costs? Answers to the above two questions fall in these three arenas.

• reassure Ford shareholders;
• after three years of increasing losses, ready to report an improvement;
• going head-to-head with Tesla

Also, this question:

• why a special dividend at this time?

Ford announced this week that it is a "new company," with five divisions, and will now break out earnings for its EV division. This is huge, and raises two questions:

• why did Ford make the decision to break out earnings for its EV division; and,
• why now?

Ford dividend: hand-in-glove with the above question is Ford's dividend -- particularly the special dividend --  at which we will also take a look. 

Ford dividend: history.

• 20 lines; if dividends paid quarterly, 20 lines should go back five years -- to 2018
• dividend:
• 1996: 35 cents;
• 1997: 42 cents;
• 1998: 48 cents;
• 2000: 50 cents;
• 2001: 15 cents;
• 2002: 10 cents;
• 2006: 5 cents;
• 2006 - 2011: dividend suspended; almost a full five years lost;
• 2012: 5 cents;
• 2015: 15 cents;

Shares before / after announcement of 65-cent-extra:

• 3/14/23: $11.93
• 3/23/23: $11.42

Forbes: link here.

Financhhill: link here, undated.

Critical floor: $10.

Financials:

• outstanding shares: 4,021,000,000 shares.
• 60 cents / share regular dividend for the year + 65 cents / share special dividend, 2023 = $1.25 / share
• 1.25 x 4,021,000,000 = $5.03 billion forecast to be paid in 2023

EV division loss:

• 2023: forecast -- $3 billion
• 2022: $2.1 billion
• 2021: $900 million

EPS -- Ford:

• Ford Motor 2022 annual EPS was $-0.49, a 111.01% decline from 2021.
• Ford Motor 2021 annual EPS was $4.45, a 1490.63% decline from 2020.

Comments:

• when it comes to EVs, no manufacturer has a moat
• it explains why Ford is selling its F-150 Raptor for $99,000 -- 

• glad to see that $167-savings on a $100,000-truck
• "low-end" F-150s can be had for $35,000 suggesting a huge mark-up / margin for the Raptor
  

Bottom line:

• BOD decision with regard to dividend / special dividend and the decision to break out earnings for its EV division:
• it points to a "belief" by the BOD that Ford is going to announce huge reversal of fortunes for its EV division and huge earnings for fiscal year 2023