Thursday, October 21, 2021

Let's Go, Bakken -- October 21, 2021

Cushing: nears empty. Link here

*****************************
Let's Go, Bakken 

Active rigs:

$82.57
10/21/202110/21/202010/21/201910/21/201810/21/2017
Active Rigs2914627154

No new permits:

Eleven permit renewals:

  • Enerplus (50: five WM Brown permits in Williams County;
  • CLR (4): four Charolais South Federal permits in McKenzie County;
  • Bowline (Nine Point, Triangle) (2): two Lee permits in McKenzie County;

One permit canceled:

  • 38290, Whiting, LBJ 24-14H, Mountrail County;

Producer now abandoned:

  • 16715, MRO, Kevin Buehner, Dunn County;


November, 2021, Hearing Dockets Are Posted — IN PROGRESS

Link here.

Tuesday, November 2, 2021.
Wednesday, November 17, 2021.
Thursday, November 18, 2021.

Tuesday, November 2, 2021

Six cases: Minnkota. See this post.

Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Nine pages

29038, NDIC, confiscation,
29039, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, setback rules, Dunn County
29040, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, fourteen wells on a standup 2560-acre unit; sections 6/7/18/19-146-94; Dunn County;29050, Hess, nine wells on a 1280-acre unit;
29041, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, one well on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit; Williams County;
29042, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, one well on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit; Williams/Mountrail counties.
29043, Hess, Pleasant Valley and/or Big Butte-Bakken; one well on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit; Williams and Mountrail counties;
29044, Hess, Pleasant Valley, Beaver Lodge and/or Manitou-Bakken; one well on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit, Williams and Mountrail counties;
29045, Kraken, Rainbow and/or Oliver-Bakken, two wells on a new standup 1920-acre unit, 17/20/29-158-98 Williams County
29046, Kraken, Oliver; two wells on a new standup 1920-acre unit, 33-158-98; Williams;
29047, Kraken, Oliver and/or Rainbow-Bakken; one well on a new overlapping 3840-acre unit, Williams
29048, Prudent Resources, LLC, changing drilling units; two vertical wells, 80-acre drilling unit, E/2 of the SE/4-17-158-91; commingling Bakken and Three Forks oil; Mountrail
29049, Murex, pooling;
29050, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, nine horizontal wells on a 1280-acre unit, section 12-
29051, Hess, eight wells on a 1280-acre unit;
29052, Hess, nine wells on a 1280-acre unit;


Thursday, November 18, 2021
Eleven pages -- wow!

29063, five wells on a 2560-acre unit;
29066, CLR, huge
29073, five pages in each of two 1920-acre units

Apple Giveth, Apple Taketh Away -- October 21, 2021

SNAP: crashes. Loses a third of its value. What a debacle.

  • ouch
    • dropped 25%
    • dropped  $20
    • trading at $55
  • watching the spin by analysts will be interesting;
    • blames Apple
    • apparently Apple made changes in it iOS that dramatically affect Snap
  • Epic-like apps might want to take notice
  • should this have been a surprise for SNAP investors?

S&P 500: closed at new high;

Selected tickers
:

  • UNP: closes at 52-week high.
  • XLNX: closes at 52-week high.
  • AAPL: actually up slightly; surprised
  • oil equities: mostly slightly lower
  • one exception: Icahn's SWX
  • DFS: down 8% -- ouch
  • INTC: down almost 8% after hours; beat on earnings, but missed on revenue
  • ARKK: up a bit

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

DUCs -- October, 2021 Data

Sent to me by a reader.

Full data posted elsewhere.

This is only data for:

  • December, 2013
  • January, 2014
  • month of January, 2018- 2020
  • all months, 2021 through September, 2021

Month/Yr

Bakken



Drilled

Completed

DUC


Dec-13

--

--

570


Jan-14

178

143

605


Jan-17

62

52

781


Jan-18

107

72

768


Jan-20

99

98

844


Jan-21

20

44

752


Feb-21

19

28

743


Mar-21

25

47

721


Apr-21

27

52

696


May-21

29

68

657


Jun-21

31

65

623


Jul-21

32

62

593


Aug-21

39

66

566


Sep-21

41

68

539


Legacy Fund Deposit -- October, 2021

Legacy Fund.


*********************************
Reminiscing

We were so incredibly fortunate. We were stationed overseas for thirteen consecutive years -- my wife says fourteen -- it's just that Turkey seemed longer than it really was -- LOL. 

I'm re-reading parts of Nicholas Boyle's two-volume biography of Goethe: The Poet and The Age, c. 1991.

I was curious to re-read that chapter on Goethe's trip to Italy, 1786. 

Prior to the trip he was depressed and suicidal. After he returned, he was a different person. Little is known about that trip. Much conjecture. 

During our first USAF military assignment to Germany, we took a car trip to Venice. Unknown to us at the time, we traced Goethe's footsteps almost exactly. His journey started a bit east of ours, but by the time he got to Regensburg, Germany, our paths were pretty much the same:

  • the Brenner Pass;
  • we took the side trip to Innsbruck; Goethe did not;
  • Vicenza; see Mignon;
  • the last stopping point before Venice
  • at the time of our trip, a huge US Army post
  • Venice;

Nicholas Boyle then spends a full page or two describing the "Palladian" architecture Goethe found in Vicenza. I know nothing about architecture but in another life, long ago and far way, I had a woman friend who was very, very much into architecture. I was never able to accompany her, but I pined over that lost opportunity when she took an architectural tour of southern England. Wow, those were the days. 

This is why I worry not about "spoiling" my grandchildren. I don't care what they study in college. I care not where their passions may lead them. I want them to live their lives to the fullest. Things will work out. They generally do.

For me:

  • several cross-country hitchhiking trips during my college years
  • one trip to Europe on my own, and hitchhiking all the way, 
    • from Williston, ND, and back, via NYC, Luxembourg, Koblenz, Germany;
    • Basel, Switzerland; Rome; Marseilles; Lisbon; Frankfurt; and back
  • thirteen years overseas with the US Air Force
  • every summer during college, a different job, geographically challenging

On another note, the autumn evenings in Texas are in incredible for star-gazing. I cannot believe how bright Jupiter, and to some extent, Saturn are. I thought Jupiter was Venus, but my iPhone sky-app sorted that out for me. 

So, every night, I see the moon, and down to the "right," maybe a hand width away, Jupiter and than Saturn; Venus much farther to the right (I guess that would be to the southwest -- I could be wrong there). In the morning, Sirius is chasing the moon: Sirius is high above me, the moon is heading toward the horizon. 

One year ago:

  • Billy Joe Shaver, August 16, 1939 - October 28, 2020
  • Jerry Jeff Walker, March 16, 1942 - October 23, 2020
  • Eddie Van Halen, January 26, 1955 - October 6, 2020
I'm Just An Old Chunk Of Coal, Billy Joe Shaver

Billy Joe Shaver and Jerry Jeff Walker, the early days.

A Farmer's Plight -- October 21, 2021


Notes From All Over -- The Kyndryl Edition -- October 21, 2021

UNP, 3Q21 earnings:

  • profit topped analysts' expectations
  • cost cuts and price increases bolstered the bottom line even as cargo growth lagged
  • UNP cut its 2021 volume target
  • volume growth, 5%, down from a target of 7%;
  • EPS: $2.57 vs $2.51, and higher than than the $2.01 a year earlier;
  • revenue rose 13% to $5.6 billion vs $5.4 billion forecast

Economic indicators released today: wow, wow, wow -- the housing sales numbers were absolutely incredible. I was impressed. 

A reminder, IBM to split into two companies:

  • Kyndryl ("can drill") would have been a better name for an oil company
  • link here; and, here.

Wework: set to go public via a SPAC two years after failed IPO. Link to WSJ

Supply chain shortages:

  • US: just-in-time delivery
  • China: just-in-case delivery

********************************
CCS

Updates

October 21, 2021: HartEnergy has the story, finally. And also at KFYR

North Dakota’s regulatory framework for geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is leading the nation again as the North Dakota Industrial Commission approved the first Class VI well in North Dakota on Oct. 19.

 North Dakota was the first state to receive primacy of Class VI wells from the US EPA in 2018, followed only by Wyoming in 2020.

Original Post

North Dakota carbon storage: ethanol plant seeks to capture emissions. Amy R. Sisk.

Paddle Boarding Comes To An End For The 2021 Season in Grapevine, TX -- October 21, 2021

How high is oil? It drops $2.41 / bbl and it's still above $81.

Recession?

Recession? With regard to the current economic cycle I first mentioned the "R" word back in August, 2021.  Some argue, and rightly so, if a recession is indeed in the cards, blame the high cost of energy, especially gasoline, here in the states. "GasBuddyGuy" tweeted yesterday that Saudi Arabia, sitting on tons of spare capacity -- defined as 30/90 -- and showing no signs of a willingness to release it, will result in a recession

The last thing Saudi Arabia wants or needs is a recession because they sat on all that spare capacity. And there's the rub. For sake of argument, let's play devil's advocate.

Let's say Saudi Arabia sees the same chart we see above. Let's say they buy into "GasBuddyGuy" that by not pumping / exporting more crude oil, Saudi Arabia's inaction will lead to recession. If so, wouldn't Saudi Arabia start producing / exporting more oil? It takes awhile to ramp up. Playing devil's advocate, if Saudi Arabia knows that a recession looms because it is not producing more oil, this tells me only thing: link to Simon Watkins.

***************************
The Witches Are Watching

Grapevine Lake, TX -- swan song for the season, 2021. There is talk of a "Polar Bear Plunge" on New Year's Eve / Day.

Notes From All Over -- Tesla's Tipping Point -- One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- October 21, 2021

Jobs: very, very good numbers for the most part says CNBC. Initial claims and continuing claims, a post-Covid low. But still at 290,000 or thereabouts. Yawn. In an hour, the number will be forgotten. 

Oil and natural gas investors: if you are not reading RBN Energy every day ... well, what can I say. That's almost as bad as not reading the MDW blog every day. RBN Energy on cash hoarding by E&Ps below.

Biden approval poll: top CNBC political story by Steve Liesman today -- Resident Biden's approval has plummeted; approval in the red. Worst polling in thirteen years on economy outlook. Steve Liesman is shocked -- again. He is shocked how "negative" Americans are. Some of the worst polling numbers Liesman says he has seen in thirteen years. Noted that gasoline in California is now $5.  Americans are very worried about a recession. What does that mean. If one has discretionary income, it is likely to go into savings, not investing and not spending. Not going into investing: the gap between the investor class and the non-investor class will continue to widen. Not spending: could be a self-fulfilling prophecy for a recession. Those with a long investment horizon, a recession is simply a buying opportunity.

Tipping point: Tesla -- no longer any doubt. It's real. Tesla is so far ahead of any of the others, it has to scare the likes of Ford, GM, European manufacturers, etc. The meme no longer holds: Tesla makes money on the emissions credits. Tesla is now making money ex-credits. But get this: new revenue stream -- Tesla Insurance Company (TIC). The believers will be rewarded.

What about the others? Analyst who probably knows most about this -- Jon McNeill, former Tesla president. At the beginning of a multi-decade growth of EVs: Rivian, F-150 Lightning, Lucid, Cadillac, and several others mentioned.

Triple-digit oil? GasBuddyGuy, Patrick De Haan, thinks it is possible. Agrees with others: OPEC is deliberately holding oil production down -- OPEC controls a third of global production. What if De Haan is wrong? What if OPEC doesn't have the supply? We've posted Saudi's supply graphic and it's not pretty. One may want to follow Josh Young

*********************************
Let's Go, Bakken

Bakken story of the month: the story is poorly written; I don't understand what happened, or better said, how it happened. The story does not mention the headline. 

Here's the story in a nutshell (I may have it wrong; see linked article):

  • oil spill on private land
  • private landowner sues oil operator
  • suit goes on for many years, in and out court over several years
  • court dismissed with plaintiff fails to show
  • oil spill suit dismissed after discovery that sanctions limited damages to $1

Active rigs:

$82.80
10/21/202110/21/202010/21/201910/21/201810/21/2017
Active Rigs2714627154

One well coming off confidential list: Thursday, October 21, 2021: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 239 for the year:

  • 37228, conf, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6H, Bully

Initial production for #37228 --

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211258021155
7-20211710225807
6-20211894736790
5-20211585025009
4-20211013518838

RBN Energy: E&Ps start hoarding cash from rapidly rising inflows. Archived.

For many years, the exploration and production sector of the oil and gas business was notorious for its profligate ways. When energy prices were high and money was flowing in, many E&P companies would spend like BeyoncĂ©. But the commodity price volatility of the past few years gave E&Ps a new-for-them financial discipline. Even when prices rebounded, they held down their capital spending, and focused on paying down debt and returning cash to shareholders in the form of stock buybacks and dividends. But there’s been a shift in all that lately, with a bigger share of the inflowing money now being used to build cash balances. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze recent cash flow allocation by the 38 E&Ps we monitor and examine what this new shift may mean.

Bowline -- Nine Point Energy

This is simply some housekeeping. I just realized I do not have "Bowline" linked at the sidebar at the right, nor was it ever added to "Bakken operators."

So, we will start with the links. These are all old stories; again, this is simply some housekeeping.


Notes From All Over -- The Early Morning Edition -- October 21, 2021

Finally. Oil is now a top story over at CNBC. OPEC+ is holding four million bopd in storage and won't release it despite the US, China, and India all asking for more oil. Where are the US shale producers? PXD: if producers put more oil on the market rather than return cash to the shareholders, the companies get punished. ESG mandates. Why is OPEC+ sitting on spare capacity? Fears of new Covid variants.

Covid: UK and Russia out of control. Perhaps you can connect the dots between Russia's Covid outbreak; Nord Stream 2; and,

Wework: breaking story. Crash.

Oh, oh: the fear of peak demand is leading to the reality of peak supply. -- Eric Nuttal, in response to news that XOM is considering cutting back on its major projects over concerns of peak supply. Link here

ISO NE: the spikes continue. 

For investors, BofA warns of 0% returns over the next ten years: this is very, very cool. The other day -- only two days ago -- I provided a long list of suggestions from Jim Cramer which he called "inflation winners." Yesterday, Bank of America provided a similar list -- amazing how it overlapped Cramer's list. Absolutely amazing. BofA's list:

  • Energy
    • XOM
    • CVX
    • COP
    • year to date, Chevron shares are up about 30%, Exxon Mobil has returned just over 50%, while ConocoPhillips is up a whopping 88%.
    • to put that in perspective, the S&P 500 returned around 20% during the same period.
  • Financials
    • Goldman Sachs
    • Morgan Stanley
    • JP Morgan
  • Materials
    • Freeport-McMoRan
    • DuPont

Polls are starting to show how concerned Amricans have become with regard to Resident Biden's policies. I have no sympathy. Especially for the folks in Minnesota who prefer CBR to pipelines. 

Supply shortages: I make it a point to visit Target every day. It's a one-minute bike-ride from our little hovel. I purposely walk down each aisle to note the shelf shortages: most remarkable -- the McCormick spices. Completely empty. Seriously. Salad dressing shelves are also quite empty. But have you noticed what is not in short supply? Beer. Speaks volumes. Huge trucks needed to supply beer and yet there seems to be no shortage. 

Netflix outage overnight was reported. "Down Detector" is the site to visit when one has questions whether a blog site or streaming service is down. With regard to Netflix, it was down for about an hour. 

Apple: one small chip, the M1 Max chip may have more raw GPU performance than a PlayStations 5. Link here.

All Pipelines Lead To Patoka, IL -- I Can't Make This Stuff Up -- Reason #7 Why I Love To Blog -- October 21, 2021

It's my impression that the EIA is pushing the renewable / global warming agenda. It's only my impression; I'm not saying it's true, but I about fell off my chair when I saw the EIA release yesterday. 

Because this post will get buried by additional posts over the next three hours, I will be-posting this.

From the EIA yesterday, in four screenshots:


I think that which is most surprising in the second and third screenshots is how quickly this all changed. It is absolutely amazing, at least for any of us paying attention.

Gasoline Demand -- Oh, Oh -- October 21, 2021

This is "oh,oh" for another reason. 

Over the past several months I have been surprised that US gasoline demand was not increasing in line with the improving economy. I attributed that to the rising price of gasoline and "demand destruction," as they say. 

Well, well, well, look at this. And I say "oh, oh" because if gasoline demand is going up despite prices going up, all things being equal, prices should continue to go up. 

The increase looks real, trending back to 9.5 million bbls per day as a four-week average. The most recent week: 9.6 million bbls.


Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Update On Project Tundra -- Things Not Going Well -- A Lesson In Carbon Capture? Platts -- October 20, 2021

Link here to Platts.

The U.S. has seen lawmakers from both parties agree that carbon capture is one important way to rein in greenhouse gas emissions and rural communities are rallying around plans to retrofit large American coal power plants with the technology to save jobs.

But one of the most high-profile carbon capture projects in the U.S., the $1 billion Project Tundra in North Dakota, is facing months of delays after its engineering contractor apparently pulled out in March. The Minnkota Power Cooperative Inc., which is spearheading the project at its 692-MW Milton R. Young coal-fired power plant, has acknowledged it is also having difficulty securing private-sector funding

"It's not clear why investors would sink a billion dollars into any risky and controversial coal carbon capture proposal, much less one facing such major outstanding questions," said Joe Smyth, a research manager with the Energy and Policy Institute. The watchdog group obtained copies of reports the electric co-op filed with the U.S. Energy Department detailing Project Tundra's struggles.

Minnkota received a $9.8 million grant from the DOE in 2019 for the front-end engineering work that has now been delayed by a year. The co-op said in its latest quarterly progress report to the DOE that it is talking with other potential construction contractors but that the process "is progressing slower than anticipated."

Minnkota's former contractor Fluor Corp. could continue to work on Project Tundra in a more limited capacity and bring in additional partners, noted John Thompson, a technology and markets director for the Clean Air Task Force who monitors U.S. carbon capture projects. He said Fluor likely did not walk away from the contractor job over concerns with the technology but rather due to its corporatewide push away from fixed price to reimbursable contracts.

More at the link. ProjectTundra is a tag

Coincidentally and ironically another CCS story was posted just a few minutes earlier. 

Although someone may have bit off more than one could chew, it speaks volumes about CCS programs going forward. Environmentalists and oil and gas companies, take note. I think this would be of more concern to oil and gas companies rather than faux environmentalists. Faux environmentalists generally have no "skin in the game."

Summit Carbon Solutions -- IN PROGRESS -- October 20, 2021

Updates

Later, 5:56 p.m. CT: for a story on another CCS project, see this post. 

Original Post 

From January 6, 2013: from 2013! Another carbon capture process. Wow.

From September 29, 2021:

Six new permits, #38589 - #38594, inclusive:

  • Operators: MRO (5); Summit Carbon Solutions, LLC
  • Fields: Bailey (Dunn); Wildcat (Mercer County)
  • Comments:
    • first time I've seen Summit Carbon Solutions; Milton Flemmer 1, NWNE 35-141-88; 

From today

Two new permits:

  • Operators: MRO, Summit Carbon Solutions
  • Fields: Bailey (Dunn); Wildcat (Mercer)
  • Comments:
    • Summit Carbon Solutions has a permit, #38622, for an Archie Erickson 2 well, to be sited in SWSW 12-142-88, a wildcat, to be sited 902 FSL and 794 FWL

From NDIC well search, link here:

  • no mention of Summit Carbon Solutions
  • the NDIC database is broken
  • the NDIC database is "accurate" up to July 14, 2021, which explains why Summit Carbon Solutions is not found at the NDIC well search site. 

From GlobalGazette, Octobder 15, 2021:

In the coming weeks, an Ames-based company will be making its pitch to residents throughout North Iowa about a new carbon capture pipeline that would cross about 172 miles in the area and reach into four other states. 

Per a post on the Iowa Utilities Board website, Summit Carbon Solutions filed a request for public information meetings in each county where real property or property rights would be affected. In North Iowa, that includes the counties of: Cerro Gordo, Floyd, Franklin, Hancock, Kossuth and Wright. Based on Iowa Code, those meetings need to be conducted at least 30 days before a company files a petition for a new pipeline permit. 

The way the pipeline would work is that carbon dioxide emissions at local ethanol plants would be captured, liquefied and then transported to a site in North Dakota where it would be stored deep underground (according to the filing). On the website for Summit Carbon, project partners include companies such as Golden Grain Energy out of Mason City, Quad County Corn Processors in Galva and Siouxland Energy Cooperative in Sioux Center.

Norfolk Daily News, September 27, 2021: proposed routes through Nebraska, Iowa, with maps.

Crude Oil -- Peak Demand, Peak Supply -- Which Comes First? -- Morgan Stanley Says Peak Supply -- Result: Significantly Higher Crude Oil Prices Sooner Than Later -- October 20, 2021

Generally, with regard to ZeroHedge, I can take it or leave it. But this particular article, linked here, sent to me by a reader, is a "keeper," and a must-read. I'm not going to cut / paste any excerpt. If interested, one will have to go to the link at ZeroHedge. I have archived it. If the link breaks or the article disappears let me know and I will forward you what I can. 

I read the article very, very quickly. I probably missed a lot and probably misread a lot but bottom line, Morgan Stanly suggests global demand for energy (and percent of crude oil's contribution) will grow more quickly than forecast and current production trends suggest, in Morgan Stanley's estimation, that production will not keep with up with demand.

Short soundbite: peak demand will occur before peak supply. 

Two comments with regard to the article.

First.

The big unknown is exactly of what Saudi Arabia is capable. To what degree can OPEC+ / Saudi Arabia change the equation. Perhaps I should do a poll on this but it's my feeling that readers are pretty much divided:

  • half of my readers would say that Saudi Arabia is sandbagging us, purposely under-producing, to drive prices higher;
  • the other half would argue that Saudi Arabia may indeed be challenged with greater production to meet increased demand.

Regardless of the correct answer, which may not be known for years / decades, it is the great unknown in the peak demand / peak supply equation. 

Second.

I read the article quickly and I may have missed it but, although I saw China (and Asia) mentioned, I did not see India mentioned. India always seems to be left out of these discussions. 

Bottom line: the tea leaves suggest --

  • most conservatively: crude oil will stay in the current trading range through the end of the year;
  • increasing number of analysis: suggestions that crude oil will trend toward $95 by mid-2020 if not by the end of this year (2021)
  • some options traders are willing to put some money on $200 oil by the end of 2022.

Having said that, some analysts suggest crude oil could drop to $40, and maybe lower. 

Be that as it may, the linked ZeroHedge article is a keeper.

Let's Go, Bakken; Two New Permits; BR Renews Eleven Permits -- October 20, 2021


Jim Cramer:

  • coined the acronym, "FANG" or "FAANG"
  • tonight he coins the term TAN: three companies that billionaire bears said would "go to zero"; he was fired up tonight;
    • Tesla
    • Amazon
    • Netflix

IBM: missing on revenue; barely beats EPS

  • EPS: $2.52 vs $2.50
  • revenue: $17.62 vs $17.77
  • growth in cloud much slower than expected
  • shares down about 4% after-hours;

CSX: beats; link here;

  • EPS: 43 cents vs 38 cents
  • earnings: $968 million vs $736 million in same period last year;

On tap, next: Tesla earnings. Forecast: $1.59 / share. Earnings should be announced momentarily, any time after 3:00 p.m. CT. Conference call not until 4:30 p.m. CT -- in other words, the "after-market" has ninety minutes to react to earnings prior to conference call. Link here.

Chip shortage or not, it looks like Tesla’s Q3 results are going to be quite impressive despite some supply chain issues that are pervasive in the market.

Tesla is set to report after the bell on Wednesday, and expectations are for $1.3 billion in profit for Q3—up from the paltry $331 million that the electronic vehicle manufacturer reported in Q3 2020.

Tesla’s Q3 revenue is expected to hit between $13.6 billion and $14.116 billion, up from $8.8 billion in Q3.

Tesla already reported at the beginning of October that even though the carmaker had supply chain challenges, it managed to deliver a record number of vehicles for the quarter. At 241,300 vehicles delivered, this is a record for Tesla, and it surpassed most analysts’ expectations, representing a 20% increase quarter on quarter.

Elon Musk had anticipated a 50% increase in the number of cars delivered in 2021 by more than 50% over last year’s half a million. And it looks like Tesla will easily beat that, delivering 627,000 in the first nine months of the year.

Tesla, actual: huge beat -- record revenue, record earnings --

  • revenue; $13.76 billion vs $13.63 billion
  • EPS: $1.86 vs $1.59
  • automotive gross margins: 28.8% vs 24.7
  • shares up very little after hours; flat; now a bit negative after hours; maybe investors were looking for better revenue numbers?

***************************************
Let's Go, Bakken

Active rigs:

$84.25
10/20/202110/20/202010/20/201910/20/201810/20/2017
Active Rigs2815617154

Two new permits:

  • Operators: MRO, Summit Carbon Solutions
  • Fields: Bailey (Dunn); Wildcat (Mercer)
  • Comments:
    • Summit Carbon Solutions has a permit, #38622, for an Archie Erickson 2 well, to be sited in SWSW 12-142-88, a wildcat, to be sited 902 FSL and 794 FWL; for more on Summit Carbon Solutions, see this post.
    • MRO has a permit, #38621, for a Fallstrom well to be sited in NENW 30-146-93, to be sited 505 FNL and 623 FEL

Eleven permits renewed:

  • BR: five Carlsbad permits; two Boxstone permits; one Boxer permit; and one Parrish permit, all in McKenzie County; in addition, permit for a Mancord permit in Dunn County

Slawson Has Fracked, Reported Several New Gunslinger Wells -- October 20, 2021

This page will not be updated. These wells are tracked elsewhere. 

But, for the record, Slawson has fracked and reported a number of newer Gunslinger wells in Sand Creek. The wells have been updated. I have not included the Gunslinger permits that were canceled; they can be found where the Gunslinger wells are tracked.

This is not an atypical production profile for the newer Gunslinger wells. This is #33621:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-202131790679062087473604734490
BAKKEN7-20213188448950232275057950068356
BAKKEN6-20212895079477248585543954542757
BAKKEN5-20212195709674222554284642594144
BAKKEN4-20212412160126483070153050491013829
BAKKEN3-20213125413252514818195160950050
BAKKEN2-20212729627304594485699873964473289
BAKKEN1-2021312588825294585941348788015954574
BAKKEN12-20203120835206934670870809676693040
BAKKEN11-202029308113149864112963727014426085
BAKKEN10-202031575037106130450566

Note:

  • 33625: 351K in less than 20 months; still producing 15,000 bbls/31 days; cum 490K 8/21;
  • 33625: note the "chronologic number" -- #12
The wells, a 10-well pad, from the south, running north:
  • 36362, 1,482, Slawson, Gunslinger ....1H, Sand Creek, t4/21; cum 129K 8/21;
  • 36360, 1,510, Slawson, Gunslinger ....1TFH, Sand Creek, t4/21; cum 91K 8/21;
  • 36358, 1,457, Slawson, Gunslinger ....1H, Sand Creek, t4/21; cum 127K 8/21;
  • 36357, 1,242, Slawson, Gunslinger ....1TFH, Sand Creek, t4/21; cum 92K 8/21;
  • 36356, 1,817, Slawson, Gunslinger ....1H, Sand Creek, t4/21; cum 116K 8/21;
  • 36354, 1,904, Slawson, Gunslinger ....1TFH, Sand Creek, t3/21; cum 87K 8/21;

From the north, running south:
  • 33626, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger ....1TF2H, Sand Creek,
  • 33625, 1,433, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 4-1-12H, Sand Creek, t2/18; cum 351K 10/19; went off line 10/19; back on line 2/21; cum 490K 8/21;
  • 33624, 877, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 7-1-12TFH, t2/21; cum 123K 8/21;
  • 33623, 772, Slawson, Gunslinger ....12H, Sand Creek, t12/20; cum 144K 8/21;
  • 33621, 2,070, Slawson, Gunslinger ....12TFH, Sand Creek, t11/20; cum 182K 8/21;

Notes From All Over -- The Ivermectin Edition -- October 20, 2021

Fed rates: 1950s -- "they" were raising rates throughout the 1950s and the 1950s were the best years ever for the stock market. Analyst on CNBC -- my favorite analyst on CNBC.

Holiday spending: it will be huge this year. Just saying. More on this later as stories start to be reported. If you question me on this, check out my favorite graph. Updated data for September, 2021, has just been posted.

Boring: like him, hate, ignore him, whatever, but you have to admit he's pretty amazing. I think his SpaceX company now launches more communications satellites into space any other company or agency (combined); of course, Tesla; and the flame throwers. But now, just announced, Elon Musk's Boring Company has the contract for designing and building a 27-mile tunnel/loop under the city of Las Vegas to carry 57,000 passengers per hour. 

Covid: finally, looking forward to a US study involving ivermectin. The first study? Nebraska (ivdermection, yes) vs California (ivermectin, no). I think Nebraska physicians will be surprised to find out how many Americans suffer from undiagnosed river blindness. Link here.

$600 --> $10,000. I don't know if folks have been following the Resident Biden / SecTreasury Janet Yellen plan to let the IRS to track all bank transactions greater than $600. 

Yellen said it was to fight tax evasion among billionaires. Of course, that's laughable. Billionaires aren't avoiding taxes by moving money around in $600 increments. Now, having failed that, Biden / Yellen have moved the $600 threshold to $10,000. Yellen gives the same excuse: to track billionaires. I thought the Biden / Yellen plan was part of the long-term goal to have an annual post-card IRS tax filing: the IRS would figure the tax one would owe and one would only file one's own tax report if one did not agree to what the IRS figured. 

But something else is going on. Quick: who  / what is most against this idea? It turns out the bankers are fighting this tooth and nail. And the GOP. And the Dems to a great extent. Something else is going on and I think I know what it is, but I will let others think about it first. But ask yourself, why would banks be fighting this tooth and nail? Who is really pushing the Biden / Yellen plan, and why?

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Wireless Headphones

I finally moved farther into the 21st century, ordering -- for the first time ever -- my first set of wireless headphones. I always thought they were too expensive and I was happy with the sound system I had. But I'll be traveling soon and I frequently get up in the middle of the night to listen to music, and thought it was about time to get "with the program."

Beats® headphones seem to run in the $350 range. 

Last night -- maybe late afternoon -- I ordered a pair of Sony wireless headphones, WH-CH510, for $39 from Amazon. They arrived moments ago. And moments ago I was listening to Lana Del Rey from my iPad Pro which has no headphone jack. 

Awesome.

Fully charged, the headphones will play up to 35 hours. On a fast ten-minute charge will play for ninety minutes. No batteries. Comes with short charging cord; can be charged from computer port.

Claims to have noise suppression. I'll see next week. 

Random Update Of The XTO Sorkness State Wells -- October 20, 2021

I'm not going to update this page. The wells are tracked elsewhere.

However, I was curious if there was anything new with regard to the XFTO Sorkness State wells. 

The wells are listed below and updated. There is no real change except for the fact that one of the older, producing, active wells is now off line, suggesting XTO is getting ready to frack the newer Sorkness wells, or not:

The wells:
  • 24945, off line 7/21, 1,359, XTO, Sorkness State 24X-36A, Sorkness, t11/13; cum 247K 9/20; cum 259K 7/21; off line 7/21; remains off line 8/21;
  • 24944, 1,595, XTO, Sorkness State 24X-36B, Sorkness, t11/13; cum 215K 9/20; cum 229K 8/21;
  • 18959, AB/IAW/378, XTO, Sorkness State 34X-36. Sorkness, t10/10; cum 251K 9/20; remains off line 8/21;
  • 36135, conf-->SI/IAW, API: 33-061-04428, no FracFocus data; XTO, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36G, API: 33-061-04429, no FracFocus data;
  • 36135, conf-->SI/IAW, API: 33-061-04429, no FracFocus data; XTO, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36C, Sorkness, t--; cum --;
  • 36137, conf-->SI/IAW, API: 33-061-04430, no FracFocus data; XTO, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36H, Sorkness, t--; cum --;
  • 36138, conf-->SI/IAW, API: 33-061-04431, no FracFocus data; XTO, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36D, Sorkness, t--; cum --;

Notes From All Over -- Dow Hits Record High -- October 20, 2021

I need to start a new series, most ridiculous "things" coming out of Washington, DC. I guess the reason I don't want to start such a series, it would be never-ending. LOL.

However, having said that, the suggestion that Washington, DC, would release oil from the SPR to bring down the price of gasoline would made that list. First of all, that would be illegal. The "law" actually specifically says the SPR cannot be used as a tool to manipulate the price of oil / gasoline. But, if the administration "broke the law" on this one, who would sue? LOL. 

But the bigger problem is that US refiners are already well-supplied. The refiners might benefit but everyone knows the price of gasoline would not drop much, with everything else staying equal.

Inflation: being interviewed now, another talking head says the same thing -- some inflation is good. Period. Dot. Nelson Peltz, chairman of the board, Wendy's. Wendy's is now #2 in that group, finally displacing Burger King. Peltz is not worried about inflation; not worried about labor shortage. As an individual, he worries about inflation, departing Afghanistan too early, about a million things. But as an investor, he's not all that concerned about headlines.

Vaccines: this will be fun to watch. Resident Biden says companies with federal contracts will lose those contracts if they don't mandate vaccines. Southwest Airlines has not backpedaled; mandates no longer required. Southwest Airlines with huge federal contracts. Let's see who blinks. Compare December 15, 2021, let's see if Southwest Airlines still has those federal contracts. Right before Christmas travel.

Millennials: have never seen a down market.

Bitcoin: up an astounding $2,500. Now trading at $66,500.

Dow: surging. Up another 200 points. At an all-time record.

***************************
Twitter Tweets Today

Just sayin':

  • "Crude on fire" after today's EIA report.
  • China considering market intervention on coal.
  • XOM debates abandoning some of its biggest oil and gas projects. Link to WSJ.
  • US oil stockpiles at Cushing at lowest since October, 2018. Does it matter?
  • Exactly correct, the Saudi position: Saudi energy minister, "Even if we made the crude available in tons and tons, who is going to burn it? Where are the refineries that will convert it? And who is in need? Are they in need of crude? Or natural gas?"
  • Saudi energy minister: demand from gas-to-oil switch, up to 600,000 bpd from 500,000 just a week ago.
  • US implied oil demand rose by almost two million bbls w/w to 21.832 million bpd.
  • India: long-term oil demand from 4 million bpd today to 9 million bpd in 2040. They should have plenty of oil; the rest of the world -- other than China -- have said they will end need for oil by 2050. LOL. Link here. Direct to Platts here.
  • Dow sets new all-time record.

On Tap Today -- October 20, 2021

Opening thought: folks are way too concerned about inflation. Way too concerned. In fact, some types / some amount of inflation is very good. 

Labor shortage? Self-inflicted. What's this all about? Link here

  • 80,000 green cards are about to disappear from the US.
  • it's this sort of garbage that makes me re-think my position on the southern surge

Rick Rieder, BlackRock CEO: incredibly bullish interview, yesterday over at CNBC; a must-hear interview for any investor. 

Legacy fund: deposits for October, 2021, pending

Weekly EAI petroleum report, link here:

  • US crude oil in storage decreased by 0.4 million bbls, a rounding error.
  • US crude oil in storage stands at 426.5 million bbls, 6% below the five-year average. It should be noted that the five-year average has been very "fat" so 6% below is "overstated."
  • US refiners are operating at 84.7% of their operable capacity (yawn -- again).
  • US crude oil imports averaged 5.8 million bbls per day; down by 169,000  bopd from the previous week; over the past four weeks, imports average 6.4 million bpd, about 20% more than same four-week period last year;
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.9 million bbls; ten percent below the five-year average.
  • total products supplied, at 21%, is up 14% from same period last year; need data from 2019 for better comparison;
  • jet fuel supplied was up 50% from same four-week period last year; again, we need data from 2019for better comparison;

********************************
Sunrise Over Flathead Lake

***************************
Twitter Tweets Today

Just sayin':

  • "Crude on fire" after today's EIA report.
  • China considering market intervention on coal.
  • XOM debates abandoning some of its biggest oil and gas projects. Link to WSJ.
  • US oil stockpiles at Cushing at lowest since October, 2018. Does it matter?
  • Exactly correct, the Saudi position: Saudi energy minister, "Even if we made the crude available in tons and tons, who is going to burn it? Where are the refineries that will convert it? And who is in need? Are they in need of crude? Or natural gas?"
  • Saudi energy minister: demand from gas-to-oil switch, up to 600,000 bpd from 500,000 just a week ago.
  • US implied oil demand rose by almost two million bbls w/w to 21.832 million bpd.
  • India: long-term oil demand from 4 million bpd today to 9 million bpd in 2040. They should have plenty of oil; the rest of the world -- other than China -- have said they will end need for oil by 2050. LOL. Link here. Direct to Platts here.
  • Dow sets new all-time record.