Tuesday, May 18, 2021

US LNG Exports -- May 18, 2021 -- IN PROGRESS

US LNG export terminals are followed here.



Just Another Wonderful Day In The Bakken -- May 18, 2021

So, how often do you see 150K bbls crude oil cumulative in a chart that is less than five full months? Wow.

Remember when Bakken wells had EURs of 300K?  

MRO hitting on all cylinders. 

MRO adds Chimney Butte to Bailey and Reunion Bay to their stable of incredible plays.

The well:

  • 36993, 3,442, MRO, Leiderbach 11-27H, Chimney Butte, middle Bakken, 2560-acre spacing, 33-025-03925, t11/20; cum 153K 3/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202131251542500324045313172937296
BAKKEN2-20212827983278122707228989270060
BAKKEN1-20213134470345103776429440270280
BAKKEN12-202030345553507347598279102547325
BAKKEN11-20201530531293485385924473223660

FracFocus: 11/5/20 - 11/11/20. A six-day frack? 8.8 million gallons of water; 55.5% fresh water by mass; 31.1% produced water by mass;

Three Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; WTI Trending Toward $67; Active Rig Count Stays Steay At 19 -- May 18, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Data I'm most interested in today: CDC Covid-19 vaccine data.

Biggest story yesterday: Biden's cash-to-kids program, monthly check starting July 15, 2021, through the end of the year:

  • six years of age and under: $300 / month
  • over six years of age: $250 / month
  • does anyone really think the politicians will end this program, January, 2022? Every US rep up for re-election in the mid-term elections (2022).

Story of the day: Walmart

  • blow-out earnings
  • guidance raised;
  • shares in pre-market trading: WMT up almost $5/share; up almost 4%;

The market:

ATT:

  • it will come out of this just fine; on this one I think pundits are absolutely wrong; this will be interesting to follow; of course the dividend will be "re-sized"; why wouldn't it be after a deal this big? Could be a great trading stock; possibly a great long-term stock. It will be interesting to see SeekingAlpha articles on same. Jim Cramer rant here.

They're reading the blog:

  • posted the other day
    • that's the problem with Apple TV. It has no content. I subscribe to Apple TV (still for free. Well, almost free: one cent per month). Apple needs to do something and needs to do something this year if it wants to "save" Apple TV. Every month it waits, the gap between Apple and Amazon, and the gap between Apple and Netflix widens. At some point the moat may be too big for Apple to bridge. Especially if Amazon acquires the MGM catalogue.
  • today's news: Amazon looking to buy MGM catalogue;

EVs: "While you were distracted by Elon vs Bitcoin the last few days, Nikola quietly manufactured another 0 vehicles." -- Chadford Whitmore VI. Link here.

Other:

LNG:

  • US exports won't be able to keep up with Asian demand;
  • chokepoint: Panama Canal

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$66.58
5/18/202105/18/202005/18/201905/18/201805/18/2017
Active Rigs1914666152

Three wells coming off the confidential list -- Tuesday, May 18, 2021:

  • 37541, drl/NC, BR, Don Juan 3C-UTFH, ULW,  Dimmick Lake, first production, t--; cum --;
  • 36993, 3,442, MRO, Leiderbach 11-27H, Chimney Butte, t11/20; cum 153K 3/21; see this note;
  • 36126, drl/NC, Slawson, Stalion 4-1-12TFH, Big Bend, first production, t--; cum --;

RBN Energy: the impact of decarbonization efforts on the LNG industry

On the surface, it may seem that the LNG market has normalized after the past year’s tumult, and it’s true that many of the day-to-day disruptions that plagued LNG offtakers and operators have subsided. Mass cargo cancellations are a distant memory, and U.S. LNG exports have been flowing at record levels. Global demand has recovered, and buyers are back to worrying more about what they normally worry about: storage refill and securing enough supply for the next winter. However, in other ways, the pandemic and the more decisive shift toward decarbonization measures in many ways have fundamentally changed how deals for future LNG development will get done. Today, we look at what the global initiative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will mean for LNG project financing.

The LNG industry has been impacted by three major events in the last 18 months, all of which have implications for the future of the industry in the short-, medium-, and long-term. Firstly, the initial wave of U.S. LNG projects, centered on the U.S. Gulf Coast, has now reached full production capacity, running at rates equivalent to about 10.5 Bcf/d (80 Mtpa), or approximately 20% of global LNG demand in 2020, with the first of the early second-wave projects due to begin exporting later this year. The second major event was brought on by the pandemic and the resulting demand destruction. U.S. LNG suffered from cargo cancellations as a result of COVID-19, which limited exports from the Lower 48 last year to an annual average of 6.5 Bcf/d (49 Mtpa). So far in 2021, there is no sign that there will be a repeat of last year’s cargo cancellations as LNG prices in global markets have been robust, notwithstanding the boost in supply. However, 2020’s global LNG market was essentially unchanged from 2019, growing by less than 1%, versus original market expectations of 4-5%. As such, the demand curve for LNG has shifted to the right by at least one and, more likely, two years, before the anticipated growth trajectory resumes. During this period, sponsors of renewable energy projects havemaintained much of their momentum, and that growth in renewable energy will serve to reduce the plateau or peak demand for LNG as the world pursues decarbonization strategies — which is the third factor that will impact LNG, and the focus of our discussion today. In particular, the current market environment and push for decarbonization are upending traditional approaches to funding and capacity commitments for new developments.

Monday, May 17, 2021

Notes From All Over -- May 17, 2021

Again, I have to apologize. I haven't been able to post everything I wanted to post because of family commitments: high school and college graduations; out-of-town visitors; etc. 

In fact, so much is happening so fast, I don't know if I will ever get caught up with the news, much less the commentary.

I have received a lot of e-mail today and have yet to answer most of it. I apologize. Just too much "stuff" to do. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

********************************
The Phrase That Will Define 2021 - 2022: Free Cash Flow

Investors: the tea leaves suggest the oil companies are going to have some blow-out quarters for the next year or so. 

I don't have time to find / post all the headlines / stories, but this looks quite interesting.

Remember, "everyone" agrees that "all" US shale companies have a breakeven at "no more" than $50 / bbl, WTI. Anything above $50-WTI is free cash flow. And unlike most sectors, the E&P companies tend to increase dividends in direct proportion to their EPS. 

WTI trading at $66.56.  

Let's see: $66.56 - $50 = $16.56 / bbl.

Exhibit A: EOG has already declared a $1.00 / share special dividend. 

Exhibit B: fifty percent more active rigs in the Bakken today than one year ago. 

There are now eighteen operators with at least one active rig in the Bakken. 

Headline over at oilprice.com tonight: natural gas prices jump on warmer weather. 

ArgusMedia: Asian premium beckons as US LNG outgrows Panama.

Higher premiums for spot LNG delivered to Asia could become more common, with growing US liquefaction having already far outstripped the capacity of the Panama Canal.

The canal is the quickest and lowest-cost route to northeast Asia for exports from the world’s largest spot supplier.

With growing Asian demand on course to exceed available supply within the region, buyers are likely to become increasingly reliant on long-range deliveries. And the need to deliver along longer routes means Asian buyers are poised to pay higher premiums for the marginal Atlantic cargo to cover additional freight costs.

The US is already capable of loading around 90 cargoes a month, following the commissioning of a third 5mn t/yr liquefaction train at Corpus Christi. This could rise to just over 100 cargoes a month by this time next year, when another 10mn t/yr of export capacity should have been added.

But there is a limit on how many of these cargoes can take the most direct route to northeast Asia, because the Panama Canal offers only two bookable slots — one in each direction, or two northbound that are typically for empty carriers returning to the US.

This leaves the equivalent of a maximum of one bookable southbound slot for every three cargoes likely to be loaded in the US in any given month.

And the booking window for these slots favours northeast Asian buyers that intend to use their US LNG offtake as base-load gas supply, because the window opens 80 days ahead of the intended transit date — a touch too early for firms looking to sell US cargoes on the spot market.

**************************************
Miscellaneous

ATT: wow, what a disaster

ZeroHedge: suspended (again) from twitter. 

Could US shale learn from US lumber?

Ten Permits Renewed; Five New Permits; Two Producing Wells (DUCs) Reported -- May 17, 2021

Active rigs:

$66.29
5/17/202105/17/202005/17/201905/17/201805/17/2017
Active Rigs1913666052

Five new permits, #38311 - #38315, inclusive:

  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Bailey (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for five Bailey field wells to be sited in NWNW section 25-146-94
    • all sited 1050' FWL and from 625' FNL to 465' FNL

Ten permits renewed:

  • XTO (3): three Jorgenson Federal permits in Dunn County;
  • Iron Oil Operating (3): three Antelope permits in McKenzie County;
  • Whiting (2): one Kaden TTT permit in Mountrail County, and one Kessel permit in Stark County;
  • Crescent Point: one CPEUSC Claire Rose permit in Williams County;
  • BR: one Catalina permit in Dunn County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • CLR: two Simmental Federal wells in McKenzie County;
    • 37046, drl/A, Simmental Federal 11-16H2, Elm Tree, first production, t--; cum --; total drilling days, 11; second bench, Three Forks; target: land the wellbore 66' below the Three Forks formation top, but more specifically 12' into the Three Forks 2nd bench; the wellbore stayed within the ideal 12' target window 93.4% of the production lateral length;
    • 37047, drl/A, Simmental Federal 10-16H, Elm Tree, first production, t--; cum --;

Locations resurveyed:

  • seven FB Leviathan permits, Bruin E&P Operating; NENE 27-151-94, McKenzie County

Finally: The April, 2021, Data -- Atmospheric CO2

Link here

April, 2021: 419.05

Up 0.69% year-over-year despite pandemic lockdown. So US/global economy plummets, and atmospheric CO2 actually increases, and increases at a fast rate than the year before. Okay. So, the UN is correct: "we" have to pretty much shut down western civilization to save the world. Even though it's probably China's coal plants that are mostly responsible if this "atmospheric CO2" even correlates with "manmade contribution."

April, 2020, one year ago: 416.18. Up 0.64% year-over-year.

April, 2019: 413.52

*************************
Meanwhile, This Won't Help

Brazil will incentivize additional natural gas imports as drought saps hydropower output. ArgusMedia. Petrobras ramps up gas imports amid drought. 

**********************************
CDC Covid Vaccine Data

There seems to have been a data reporting problem either yesterday or today.

CDC data is here.



Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered

Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday

Average number of doses given / day in past seven days

Monday 

May 17, 2021

344,503,495

0

272,925,411

-619,796

79.22%

14,659,670

1,618,004

Sunday

May 16, 2021

344,503,495

100

273,545,207

2,712,865

79.40%



Saturday

May 15, 2021

344,503,395

2,637,450

270,832,342

2,393,676

78.62%



Friday

May 14, 2021

341,865,945

2,700,500

268,438,666

1,842,180

78.52%



Thursday

May 13, 2021

339,165,445

2,075,680

266,596,486

1,915,642

78.60%



Wednesday

May 12, 2021

337,089,765

3,008,700

264,680,844

1,548,283

78.52%



Tuesday

May 11, 2021

334,081,065

4,237,240

263,132,561

1,533,180

78.76%



Monday

May 10, 2021

329,843,825

0

261,599,381

1,882,392

79.31%

17,334,250

2,117,025

Sunday

May 9, 2021

329,843,825

3,770

259,716,989

2,369,784

78.74%



Saturday 

May 8, 2021

329,840,055

2,715,430

257,347,205

2,567,872

78.02%



Friday

May 7, 2021

327,124,625

2,514,440

254,779,333

2,805,581

77.88%



Thursday

May 6, 2021

324,610,185

3,060,850

251,973,752

2,406,932

77.62%



Wednesday

May 5, 2021

321,549,335

3,075,300

249,566,820

1,797,771

77.61%



Tuesday

May 4, 2021

318,474,035

5,964,460

247,769,049

988,846

77.80%



Monday

May 3, 2021

312,509,575

0

246,780,203

1,188,734

78.97%

21,817,570

2,287,393

WTI Continues To Melt Up; Twelve Operators With Active Rigs In The Bakken; Nineteen Active Rigs -- May 17, 2021

Tesla: TSLA is now trading below $575. Down 4% today; trading about $565. 

ATT - Discovery: lots of media analysis. ATT moving from "vertical integration" to "pure-play" streaming services. 

Wow -- so many story lines: Saudi sovereign fund PIF boosts US equities exposure to over $15 billion. Reuters.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Boom: the number of active rigs in North Dakota are now almost 50% higher than a year ago -- 19 vs 13. 

Active rigs:

$66.29
5/17/202105/17/202005/17/201905/17/201805/17/2017
Active Rigs1913666052

The operators with active rigs:

  • CLR (5): Gordon Federal, Bang, Harrisburg, Harms Federal, Candee
  • Hess (2): EN-Johnson, GO-Braaten,
  • MRO (2): Armstrong, Morgan USA,
  • Ovintiv (2): Rolla, Rolfsrud
  • Slawson: Mauser Federal,
  • Rimrock: FBIR Guyblackhawk,
  • Enerplus: Beaver,
  • Iron Oil Operating: Antelope,
  • Petro-Hunt: Jorgenson,
  • Whiting: Lacey
  • Oasis: Cliff Federal,
  • Crescent Point Energy: CPEUSC Sylven,

One well coming off confidential list -- Monday, May 17, 2021: 28 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 130 for the year:

  • 36600, 1,400, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-11, Manitou, t11/20; cum 67K 3/21;

Sunday, May 16, 2021: 27 for the month, 48 for the quarter, 129 for the year:

  • None.

Saturday, May 15, 2021: 27 for the month, 48 for the quarter, 129 for the year:

  • None. 

RBN Energy: MVP delay risks amplifying Appalachia's re-emerging gas takeaway constraints. Archived.

Appalachia natural gas producers hoping to get a big boost in pipeline takeaway capacity later this year were dealt some bad news recently. On May 4, Equitrans Midstream officially pushed back the in-service date for the already-delayed Mountain Valley Pipeline. The 2-Bcf/d, greenfield project is the last of the major planned expansions that would add substantial capacity from the prolific Appalachia gas-producing region and help stave off severe seasonal pipeline constraints, at least in the near- to midterm. Previous guidance had it coming online late this year, but Equitrans said it is now targeting start-up in the summer of 2022, pending water and wetland crossing permit reviews. The news is far from surprising considering the numerous regulatory and legal challenges midstream projects, including MVP, have previously faced in the Northeast over the past decade or so. But the resulting uncertainty leaves Northeast producers in a tight spot. In today’s blog, we will consider the implications of the MVP delay for Appalachia’s outflows.

Sunday, May 16, 2021

Random Notes From All Over -- May 16, 2021

First things first: do you remember the ADM soybean crushing facility / Spiritwood, ND story? A reader writes, with limited editing:

The ADM facility in Jamestown [Spiritwood], ND, was on a short note on  the US Farm Report  today ...  the 150,000 bushel crush per day ... this crush is equal to 300 semi-truck loads [eighteen-wheelers] of soy beans every day.
 
That is twelve and one-half truckloads per hour or one truckload every five minutes.

How much diesel fuel will this require, or how many fast-charge battery chargers for semis?

The bean plant in Fairmont, MN, is similar and never stops. When there is an overhaul/update the notices are posted six months in advance so all those beans under contract can be delivered. 
[Comment: So many story lines here: best story line -- see the Daimler story below.]

Focus on Fracking, weekly edition posted. Link here

Coincidence? I think not. The dots connect.

  • Apple and Berkshire Hathaway are joined at the hip.
    • Berkshire's number one equity holding: AAPL by a large margin; nothing else comes close;
  • Berkshire Hathaway owns Nebraska Furniture Mart
  • Apple's 12.9-inch iPad Pro was not expected to be available until the second half of May, 2021; most likely, May 21, 2021 -- almost a week from now;
    • u/PeterDragon 50 has already received pre-ordered 12-9-inch iPad Pro through retailer Nebraska Furniture Mart

******************************
ATT-Discovery

Updates:

May 17, 2021: a much bigger deal than I originally realized. Immediately after the announcement ATT shares popped up nearly $2.00 / share but after word got out that the dividend would be "normalized" ATT shares are not down about $0.37. Annual dividend at $2.08 could be cut by at least 20% = $1.66. But the market value of T also goes down -- so the question is whether the "20%-cut figure" is "raw" cut on the dividend, or "percentage cut" in the total ATT payout, which has to be balanced against what folks are calling a huge cash machine: WarnerMedia-Discovery or Turner-Discovery or T-Discovery? My hunch: long term investors will do very, very well. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Original Note

ATT: I'm not sure I understand this -- let's go through the "facts" as I understand them:

  • ATT owns WarnerMedia;
    • when ATT acquired WarnerMedia, ATT acquired the "Turner" properties: CNN, TNT, and TBS;
    • many ATT shareholders would like to see ATT get rid of CNN
  • the "Discovery" network is owned by Discovery and Hasbro
  • ATT is putting together a package that would merge the "Discovery" network with the Turner properties;
  • the new entity, let's call it the"Discovery-Turner" or "Turner-Discovery" network / company would be a separate company from ATT
  • ATT shareholders would own shares in a new (and huge [?] entity called "Discovery-Turner' or "Turner-Discovery" 
  • that's how I understand it; readers will let me know where I'm wrong;
  • in a world where there is so much content and so many competing streaming networks, "Discovery" as a stand-alone is getting "lost" among the big boys [and girls];
  • one can argue whether this is good for the "Discovery" owners or not but from my vantage point there is no argument that it's a good idea for ATT to jettison CNN (think Don Lemon)
  • the big question I have, I suppose, is whether "Discovery" viewers are the kind of viewers that will watch the Turner properties?
    • if this does happen, I already have my trade ready
  • the TBS shows are listed here;

************************************
Miscellaneous

What folks will forget by tomorrow's market opening: China's retail sales miss estimates. 

What folks will be talking about tomorrow: batteries. WSJ. Nonsense. Cognitive dissonance.

What we will really be talking about tomorrow: Bill Gates fooling around

Memo to self: Big Bang Theory.

UNP: to pay $1.07 / share next quarter. After seven quarters of 97 cents / share, UNP raises dividend to $1.07 / share. Press released dated May 13, 2021, payable June 30, 2021, to shareholders of record May 28, 2021.

Reminder: actually two reminders -- I suggested not too long ago --

  • this would be the year that investors are going to see a lot of dividend increases; and,
  • Apple's biggest misstep this year? paltry dividend increase (a friend told me that)

More examples required? Here's one. Old news but Michael Fitzsimmons posted it today, Sunday, May 16, 2021. Headline: EOG Resources: shares pop higher on $1 / share special dividend.

On May 6th, EOG Resources announced a stunning Q1 earnings report that demonstrated strong free-cash-flow generation due to the recovery in oil and gas prices combined with EOG's very low-cost resource base.

 Better still, EOG remains disciplined with capital spending and declared a $1/share special dividend payment directly to shareholders.

EOG remains one of the best and most efficient shale operators, with wells that consistently perform among the best in the industry.

The company has a deep inventory of low-cost drilling locations with thousands of well locations that can generate a 30%+ return with WTI at $30/bbl.

Now that shareholders know they will be rewarded with increased dividends, and given the strong current oil price of oil and the anticipated US economic rebound - EOG shares are a BUY.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Thursday Night Football: we just talked about this the other day. I hear that the opening TNF game will be Dak vs Tom; Dallas vs Tampa Bay. Cowboys vs Buccaneers. Let's check. Ah, there it is. Pre-season, Thursday, August 5, Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers; Regular season, Thursday, September 9, 2021: Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers. See this TNF schedule. Be sure to read the fine print.

The first game of the season between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys is on a Thursday night, September 9, 2021, but it’s technically not part of the Thursday Night Football package. This also goes for the Thanksgiving matchups. 
[Comment: hello, Amazon. Hello, Jeff Bezos. Brilliant.]

Hulu: without question -- best television bargain out there. Amazon Prime Video a close second. 

Iron Dome: works. 

Windfall? Daimler to split

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Cheaper if  you pick it up yourself: DoorDash and Uber Eats delivery is costing more. Apps are shifting some costs to customers; restaurants are raising prices on apps and offering cheaper direct orders. WSJ paywall but the headline pretty much says it all. 

Snapshot: what percent of Americans who will ever visit Disneyland in southern California have already visited Disneyland?

***************************
Word For The Day

Skeuomorphism.

Goes back to 2013. The day "skeuomorphism" (at least some of it) died: I remember the "event" but I did not know the back story. 

Back story at these links:

When you take a photo with your smart phone, you generally hear a pretty loud "fake" click imitating the sound of a real SLR camera. That's one example of skeuomorphism.

That "photo-click" was "invented" / "necessitated" by the Japanese. My hunch: most readers will never guess why.

"Vaccine Hesitancy" -- Have "We" Turned A Corner? May 16, 2021

Wow, wow, wow, it looks like my "thesis" holds.

Covid-19 vaccinations in today's CDC report was one of the best Sunday reports for any given Sunday

The CDC reported one of the best numbers ever for a Sunday today. Awesome! On so many levels

CDC data is posted here.  

It will take a few days to see if this holds. I generally post the weekly data each Tuesday.

Natural Gas In The Bakken -- May 16, 2021

Because of family commitments for the next two weeks, I have not yet gotten back to this post about natural gas -- but I will eventually get back to it.

However, the good news is that a reader provided four very long comments that explains a lot about natural gas. 

Eventually this will all be brought forward; there are some huge stories coming out of the Bakken (good and bad) regarding natural gas in the Bakken, an oil field. 

But for now, please go back to the linked post above and check out the comments from the reader.