Predictions For 2022 -- The Original List Was Completed Prior To Year-End 2021

JC Oviedo: link here.

Mine, in progress, not ranked in any particular order:

• EV manufacturers will experience a "come-to-Jesus" moment; Chinese challenges for Tesla may be insurmountable;
• there will be a relative glut of new cars by mid-summer as supply chain obstacles are resolved, and floodgate of 2022 cars released as well as beginning surge of EV -- prediction added January 3, 2022; prices may not be much better but more than enough new cars available;
  
• WTI trends toward $90, but won't go over $100;
  
• gasoline prices will dominate mid-term discussions; GOP re-takes the US House, US Senate
  
• no major military action in the Pacific; in eastern Europe; in the Mideast; or on the Korean peninsula; another year of peace;
  
• Covid-19 fades away; Omicron was the beginning of the end;
• AAPL: first company to have a market cap of $3 trillion+
• the Bakken "maintains"; 
• active rigs trend toward 40; production returns to 1.2 million bopd;
• EOG announces early EOR results
  
• Fed will make only one rate increase, not three as telegraphed near end of 2021
  
• implies increased risk of recession if more than one rate increase;
• but only way to stop inflation from running out of control may be increased number of rate changes even if that increases risk of recession
  
• NFL has best year in history; NBA not so much
• Dallas Cowboys get past first round but don't make it to the Super Bowl
  
• Jamie Dimon's initial thoughts on cryptocurrency will turn out to be correct
• the milliondollarway blog will be better than ever

The one "issue" that completely confounds me: how much crude oil the US will have in storage measured in "number of days" through 2022.

• if week-after-week, number of days of crude oil supply stays above 30 days, the "availability of oil" is a non-issue.;
• if "we" stay between 22 days and 28 days, moving around an average of 26 days, plus or minus a couple of days, it's pretty much the same thing -- a yawner;
• but if we get to 24 days and the trend is definitely downward, one would expect crude oil prices (and gasoline prices) to start going higher; 
• for me the "breaking point" is 20 days AND a consistent downward trend, week-after-week; 
• a second aspect of all this correlates with this maxim: the price of oil is not determined by the average price of all oil available, but the price of the last bbl being sold, if that makes sense -- the corollary? Once we hit go below a certain number of days of crude oil in storage, the price of oil won't move linearly with the drop in the number of days of oil storage. The price of oil will surge, not week/week, but day/day. Imagine walking toward the edge of a cliff .... that last step is not like the penultimate step before going over the edge ...  
• days of supply is incredibly complicated:
• first of all, it's a prediction
• second, large number of variables, each of which by itself, can be incredibly difficult to predict
• completely unpredictable geopolitical events can have huge effects
• policy decisions by oil-producing countries can have huge effects, and some policy decisions can result in unintended consequences (e.g., Biden's decision to release oil from the SPR)
• all one can do is pull out a yellow legal-size piece of paper, draw a line down the middle and put supply issues on one side and demand issues on the other other side (the most recent, perhaps best example -- the announcement by Mexico that as of 2023, that country will no longer export any of its oil