Locator: 48540B.
Tea leaves: it's not going to be a good summer for Bakken operators.
- operators should be moving rigs in this time of year, although spring thaw / mud / regulations are always a problem this time of year; hopefully it's just that;
- in fact, the number of active rigs have fallen below 30; reportedly yesterday, 28
- most expected 35 by now and trending toward 40
- as they say in Washington, "we're watching it closely"
The big stories today:
- BP: it's only getting worse;
- start here, but you better be sitting down;
- 48% profit drop
- but good news for investors -- BP to sack Giulia Chierchia (ex McKinsey, joined in 2020)
- she won't be replaced; BP seems to be disbanding her "woke" ventures
- BP cuts buybacks as profit misses estimates (by a lot) ad debt rises (by a lot)
- where it all began: flashback to February 7, 2023; link here.
- Saudi: it's only getting worse;
- Simon Watkins, link here;
- Copper: it's only getting better; Trading Economics, look at the 10-year chart; and,
- the bullet train.
- too big to fail;
- needs another $7 billion by next summer
- to put this $7 billion in perspective, a Medi-Cal shortfall of "only" $6.2 billion has broken California's bank, link here.
- this is the real problem: first "estimates" of more money needed turn out to be woefully low
Trump's first 100 days: it's only his first 100 days. That's all that can be said.
Ukraine: it's starting to down on Europe they misread the tea leaves four years ago
- Macron getting nervous
- Putin will get Crimea; hard to say how much more he will get
- sets sights on other parts of the former Soviet Union
Turkey: lurking. Talk of restoring the old Ottoman Empire -- headed south into the Levant.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $61.25. Trump definitely winning on this one.
New wells:
- Wednesday, April 30, 2025: 100 for the month, 100 for the quarter, 292 for the year,
- 41147, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 5C,
- 41067, conf, BR, Tilton 3D,
- 39816, conf, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-6,
- 39815, conf, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-5,
- 30265, conf, MRO, Whitney USA 14-9H,
- 30264, conf, MRO, Alvina USA 44-9H,
- Tuesday, April 29, 2025: 94 for the month, 94 for the quarter, 301 for the year,
- 40669, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 9HR,
- 25074, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek State 153-96-16-3H,
RBN Energy: US energy dodges a bullet as new fees target Chinese shipping.
The U.S. government recently released the final rules for the Section 301 fees proposed earlier this year, intended to address the dominance of China’s shipbuilding industry. According to the new rules, exports on Chinese-owned, -operated or -built vessels are mostly excluded — great news for U.S. energy producers and exporters, especially in the NGL sector. In addition, things are starting to change in the LPG markets due to the U.S./China tariff war. Propane vessels are being diverted, at least one ethane cargo has been scrapped, and China is reportedly looking into exempting ethane from its 125% import tariff. In today’s RBN blog, we look at what the latest developments mean for the U.S. energy industry.
