Locator: 48553CHINA.
Before going further, a reminder: within the past few days China stated very clearly that it was waiving all tariffs on US ethane. Huge, huge, huge story.
Now, tonight, an even bigger story.
Now, combine this with the Musk satellite story.
Then, add in the Nvidia /TSMC story that's playing out in Phoenix.
And then, another reminder, Apple is moving out of China as fast as it can. It will take a year or so, but Apple will be out of China well before mainland China invades Taiwan.
One hundred days.
Now, throw in the US energy story and the Spanish grid this past week.
This is going to play out in two phases, short term and long term.
As usual, I won't post my thoughts on what all of the above means and where we're headed short term and long term. I would get too much push back. I don't need it.
All I can say, the China "manufacturing data" for April that has just come in is the biggest financial story so far in Trump's first 100 days.
At this moment in time: the US has never looked so strong. I won't even mention that the Canadians have voted in another liberal PM. LOL.
This is the lede to the WSJ story:
China’s economy showed its first big signs of damage from the trade war, as steep U.S. tariffs pummeled export orders and production at the country’s factories.
A gauge of new export orders fell in April to its lowest reading since Covid-19 was ravaging the country in 2022, while overall manufacturing activity in China was the weakest in more than a year, according to surveys published Wednesday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
The sharp pullback shows Trump’s eye-watering tariffs on Chinese imports are starting to squeeze the engine room of China’s economy, piling pressure on Beijing to boost its stimulus efforts to shore up growth.
It also adds to pressure on leader Xi Jinping to reach a deal on trade with President Trump—though for now the clear message from Beijing is one of resolute defiance in the teeth of what it describes as U.S. bullying. [But it didn't stop Xi from waiving all tariffs on ethane.]
China’s official purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector, a closely watched gauge of activity at China’s factories, came in at 49 in April, down sharply from the 50.5 reading recorded in March. A reading of 50 or above indicates factory activity is expanding, while below 50 points to a contraction. April’s reading was the weakest since December 2023.
A similar measure of new export orders plunged even more steeply, sinking to 44.7 in April, the lowest reading since December 2022, an early sign that trade between the U.S. and China is in danger of drying up as American importers cancel or delay orders after a rush to bring in goods earlier this year before tariffs came into effect. [Exactly predicted by Trump.]
The billionaires in China won't accept this.
