Thursday, December 5, 2024

Activity In The Epping Oil Field -- Northeast Of Williston, North Dakota -- December 5, 2024

Locator: 44504B.

The maps:




Enerplus With Six New Permits -- Eagle Nest -- McKenzie County -- December 5, 2024

Locator: 44503B. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: 468.37.

Active rigs: 35.

Six new permits, #41396 - #41401, inclusive:

  • Operator: Enerplus (Chord Energy: Oasis, Whiting, Enerplus)
  • Field: Eagle Nest (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Enerplus has permits for six ski-Colorado-themed wells, Fly, Vail, Telluride, Steamboat, Loveland, and Keystone, SESW 31-149-94, 
      • to be sited between 680 FSL and 634 FSL and between 1639 FWL and 1808 FWL.
      • Fly may be an exception to being a "ski-Colorada-related” resort or area

Two permits renewed:

  • 40374, Zavanna, Sawyer, Stockyard Creek, Williams County;
  • 40381, SIlver Hill Energy, Hegstad South, Cottonwood, Mountrail County

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 40537, 1,101, MRO, Chandler 31-15H,
  • 40538, 4,102, MRO, Ellestad 41-15H,

Don't Hop On PoP! Apple: Looking To Fundamentally Change iPhone Memory Design -- December 5, 2024

Locator: 44502APPLE.

New

December 6, 2024: link here.

Apple’s betting that its upcoming in-house 5G modem could help it beat Qualcomm's performance eventually. Apple has worked on developing its own modem for years, but the initiative reportedly experienced technical issues and other setbacks despite purchasing Intel’s modem unit in 2019.

The first Apple modem is rumored to come to the iPhone SE before appearing in the rumored iPhone “Slim” and entry-level iPads. Down the line, Apple is reportedly planning to roll out a second-generation modem with mmWave in 2026, putting it in the iPhone 18 line and higher-end iPads. In 2027, Bloomberg reports that Apple “hopes to top Qualcomm” with its “Prometheus” modem, which could support AI features and “next-generation satellite networks.”

However, its first chip may fall short of Qualcomm’s in terms of the absolute highest possible speed for a couple of reasons: lacking support for the mmWave technology available in some cities from carriers like Verizon and supporting four-carrier aggregation instead of six.

Those features boost the maximum bandwidth available to multiple gigabits per second, but speeds are typically much slower in the real world, and the current iPhone SE also lacks mmWave support. The new modem will, however, support dual SIM standby, allowing people to have two active SIM cards at the same time.

Original Post

Link here.

From the article:

Samsung, a key supplier of Apple's memory components, has begun research to accommodate the change at Apple's request.
The shift will mark a departure from the current package-on-package (PoP) method, where the low-power double data rate (LPDDR) DRAM is stacked directly on the System-on-Chip (SoC).
Starting in 2026, the DRAM will instead be packaged separately from the SoC, which should significantly improve memory bandwidth and enhance the ‌iPhone‌'s AI capabilities.

This is fascinating:

The current PoP configuration was first introduced in the ‌iPhone‌ 4 in 2010 and favored since then for its compact design. Stacking the memory directly atop the SoC minimizes the physical footprint, which is especially important for mobile devices where space is at a premium. However, PoP packaging imposes constraints that limit its suitability for AI applications, which require faster data transfer rates and more memory bandwidth.

Aha! This makes sense:

With PoP, the size of the memory package is constrained by the size of the SoC, capping the number of I/O pins and therefore limiting performance.
Moving to discrete packaging will allow the memory to be physically separated from the SoC, enabling the addition of more I/O pins. This design change should increase the data transfer rate and the number of parallel data channels.
Separating the memory from the SoC also provides better heat dissipation.

Tech is tracked here.
Chips are tracked here.
Apple is tracked here.

Seldom is anything Apple now develops "revolutionary" in the eyes of the analysts, but over time, these small changes add up.

Market -- Mid-Day -- December 5, 2024

Locator: 44501INVESTING.

GDPNow, link here, 4Q24: 3.3.

Uber, Lyft: slumping today.  

Apple: at the close, AAPL will close lower, breaking a 12-day streak of consecutive higher closes. That may have to be fact-checked. I recall hearing that but did not confirm. Later: at the close, AAPL eked out a three-cent gain!!! Whoo-hoo!!! A 13-day run?

Jack Daniels: lading the S&P 500, link here.


BRK's subsidiaries, link here.

Bezos interview, link here. One of the best interviews ever.

ISO-NE: spiked to $200 earlier this morning; now running at $85. Wind, 2.3%; coal: 2%; net imports at 22%.

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GM

Update
December 5, 2024

It starts to make sense. 

December 4, 2024

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Investing

GM should be of some concern.  

A huge day on Wall Street today: Dow breaks through 45,000 for the first time ever. Art Cashin, who famously wore a "Dow 24,000" cap back in 2017, and perhaps one of the finest men on Wall Street, died two days ago. He might have something to say about this/that.

GM was down during regular hours and continued to go down after the market closed. 

The thing that would concern me if I were a GM investor, and I'm not, is the abruptness with which the company ended its relationship / stake in the huge Lansing EV battery factory. GM has/had sunk about $1 billion into the venture, but said it expected to recoup its investment. I assume that was said to "appease" GM's more gullible shareholders. It's chump change.

$1 billion. Sounds like a lot of money. Chump change to the tech CEOs and their companies.  Musk is worth $333.6 billion. That's with a "b." If a company like GM is concerned about $1 billion, there's more to the story. There's a short-term story and a long-term story. 

The last five days have been miserable for GM. And longer term? One could have bought GM for $63.37 / share back on June 4, 2021. Today, GM closed at $53.36. Ouch. 

Ford? Back on June 14, 2022, F was trading for $25.19. Today, F closed at $10.74.

See disclaimer. Just some rambling thoughts. Not making a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

TSM's Phoenix Facility To Produce Nvidia's New Blackwell AI Chips -- December 5, 2024

Locator: 44500TECH.

Tag: Phoenix Nvidia NVDA TSM TSMC Taiwan airline

Updates

Local paper, December 5, 2024: 

Original Post

I remember all the challenges this project faced.

I remember all the doubters over at twitter.

Link here.

Syria -- An Update -- December 5, 2024

Locator: 44501SYRIA.

Syria in maps: BBC, December 7, 2024. Link here.

The Syrian War, New York Times, December 6, 2024. Link here

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Updates

December 7, 2024: rebels widen assault. Assad rushes forces to protect Homs, Damascus. It will be interesting to see if Assad's troops support him or the rebels. Link here. At time of posting, story was 39 minutes "old."

December 6, 2024: this is a huge story -- Iran is not just evacuating ordinary Iranian citizens, but Iran is pulling their military forces out of Syria. It's hard to believe Assad's days are not numbered. His wife and children have "escaped" to Russia. Wow, as rich as they are, to end up in Moscow. Link here to The WSJ.


December 5, 2024:

Rebels have reached Hama. Syrian's government forces have pulled out of Hama.

Rebels are now on their way to Homs, the last big city before they move to Damascus.

See map below.

Nothing like a good war to learn geography.

Link to The [London] Telegraph.

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Previous

Locator: 44479SYRIA.

December 1, 2024:


Map from December 1, 2024. As of December 5, 2024, the rebels have taken Hama and are now on their way to Homs.

I'm Going To Take A Break -- Too Much To Report -- Can't Keep Up -- Back In A Few Minutes -- 8:36 A.M. CST -- December 5, 2024

Locator: 44500BREAK.

The market: at the open, indices are negative to flat.

AAPL: you have got to be kidding -- up for the 13th day in a row? Up slightly at the open but has since gone "red" slightly.

BRK-B: the bleeding has stopped.

Breaking: The Biggest Story Of The Century -- In Tech -- Hyperbole? Maybe. Involves Musk Again -- December 5, 2024

Locator: 44499TECH.

Just breaking on CNBC. Link here.


I've talked about this project at least once, but this is new.

My takeaway: no matter how much Nvidia (NVDA) you have in your portfolio, it's not enough. LOL.

Ties in with the Meta story out of Louisiana yesterday.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

If The Rate Of Change On The Outside Exceeds The Rate Of Change On The Inside, One Can See The End -- Expanded Version -- December 5, 2024

Locator: 44498INTEL.

Link to The Wall Street Journal

From the linked article:

Chips are the engines of modern life. They are the indispensable pieces of technology behind our phones, computers, televisions and cars—and cyber espionage and advanced weapons. In recent years, they have become the workhorses making artificial intelligence even smarter. And the pandemic-era chip shortage made it painfully apparent just how much we have come to rely on tiny, ridiculously intricate slabs of silicon.    

All of which could have been quite lucrative for Intel. But the company had fallen behind in the race to make the best-performing chips with billions of microscopic transistors, ceding the cutting edge to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, or TSMC, and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics

Gelsinger was hired with a clear mandate: Catch up. 

The strategy that he articulated to restore Intel’s swagger ran utterly counter to the direction the industry had taken over the previous several decades. In that time, the chip business had evolved and basically split in two. Most chip companies have come to specialize in either designing chips (like Nvidia) or making chips (like TSMC). Because those businesses are radically different, only a handful of large chip companies still do both—like Intel.

Morning Joe -- Most Fascinating Political Talk Show Debacle In Years -- December 5, 2024

Locator: 44497TV.

Tag: David Frum

Circular firing squad.

Mika and Joe were as angry as I've ever seen -- this morning -- their first hour. Incredible.

For those with no life, looking for that hour which will stream on YouTube later today is well worth it. 

Meanwhile, these links will get you started.

DailyMail: wow. Mika knows where and what Joe may have inadvertently stepped into. Link here.

Ratings: no matter how one spins it, not good. Link here.

Ratings: with a bit of spin. Link here.

Google: the atlantic morning joe mar-a-lago -- what's the difference between slander and libel?


Joe says he's still a friend of David Frum -- certainly doesn't sound like it. David Frum will be on "Morning Joe" tomorrow -- Friday -- to respond to charges but Joe won't be there -- due to previous plans to be elsewhere. LOL.

If The Rate Of Change On The Outside Exceeds The Rate Of Change On The Inside, One Can See The End -- December 5, 2024

Locator: 44496B.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC

Overnight: we may or may not get to the following stories today --

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.02.

Friday, December 6, 2024: 11 for the month; 115 for the quarter, 646 for the year

  • 40688, conf,  Slawson, Fish Finder 4-21-9H,
  • 40108, conf, Enerplus, Devils Canyon 147-97-17-20-9H-ELL,
Thursday, December 5, 2024: 9 for the month; 113 for the quarter, 644 for the year
  • None.

RBN Energy: nascent SAF market may face turbulence under Trump administration.

Over the past few years, tax credits and other incentives — both financial and regulatory — have breathed life into the U.S. market for sustainable aviation fuel, whose production is now ramping up, with more SAF capacity on the way. But the sector may experience turbulence under the incoming Trump administration, which has pledged to undo much of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and pull back on the stepped-up decarbonization efforts that helped define the Biden presidency. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the latest developments in the SAF space and the choppiness the still-fledgling sector may soon face.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.