Friday, June 11, 2010
Off The Air
My Barnhill-Yorkshire blog is off the air for the rest of the month. It will be back for three days in July.
The Barnhill-Yorkshire blog is just one of several blogs I have, but I only bring it up periodically. It is a sentimental blog that should be of little interest to others, but I post it occasionally just in case.
My "banner" blog is this one, Million Dollar Way, about the oil industry in North Dakota, and I have no plans to take it "off the air."
The Barnhill-Yorkshire blog is just one of several blogs I have, but I only bring it up periodically. It is a sentimental blog that should be of little interest to others, but I post it occasionally just in case.
My "banner" blog is this one, Million Dollar Way, about the oil industry in North Dakota, and I have no plans to take it "off the air."
EOG Ordered to Stop Drilling in Pennsylvania Marcellus
The moratorium is only for a few days, but the "tea leaves" tell me it's just a matter of time before EPA is given authority under Clean Water Act to regulate fracking nationwide.
"Everyone" seems to disagree, saying it won't happen, but now that the EPA has won another battle in the Senate regarding regulation of greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act, the EPA staffers will feel emboldened.
The time line would suggest it (EPA regulating fracking) will happen in 2014, possibly 2015. It might have been better had the oil industry not gotten the waiver a few years back. This would all be behind us by now had the EPA been given the authority to regulate fracking earlier in the decade. Now it hangs over us going forward, and uncertainty is something investors fear.
"Everyone" seems to disagree, saying it won't happen, but now that the EPA has won another battle in the Senate regarding regulation of greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act, the EPA staffers will feel emboldened.
The time line would suggest it (EPA regulating fracking) will happen in 2014, possibly 2015. It might have been better had the oil industry not gotten the waiver a few years back. This would all be behind us by now had the EPA been given the authority to regulate fracking earlier in the decade. Now it hangs over us going forward, and uncertainty is something investors fear.
125! Another Milestone to Mark
125 active oil rigs in North Dakota. A new high.
The number of active rigs moves up and down as many as five rigs/day, although the move is generally one or two rigs up or down.
Some folks opine that these horizontal rigs do the work of eight (8) rigs in the "old" days.
The recent increase in rigs is probably due to load restrictions being eased during summer weather. I am betting that "we" will level off here at about 125 +/- 5 rigs. The choke point to complete a well remains the availability of a fracking team.
The number of active rigs moves up and down as many as five rigs/day, although the move is generally one or two rigs up or down.
Some folks opine that these horizontal rigs do the work of eight (8) rigs in the "old" days.
The recent increase in rigs is probably due to load restrictions being eased during summer weather. I am betting that "we" will level off here at about 125 +/- 5 rigs. The choke point to complete a well remains the availability of a fracking team.
Three Unrelated Notes: Not About the Bakken
1. Double-speak (that's easy for you to say): The White House works behind the scenes to ease UN sanctions on Iran. Obama will support anti-Israel resolution at UN next week. I can't make this stuff up.
2. Retail sales: Analysts surprised at huge drop in retail sales in May.
They weren't off by a little; they were off by a huge amount -- first in the wrong direction (retail sales unexpectedly fell when they were forecast to rise) -- and second, this was not a slight decline -- this was the largest decline since about a year ago.
I can't make this stuff up.
3. Jobs: from the Boston Business Journal, June 11, 2010: 14% of employers believed Obamacare would contain health care costs, and only 20 % believed it would improve the quality of care. And that, folks, is the number one reason why employers won't hire new employees: they're waiting to see how Obamacare shakes out. It isn't going to look pretty. With a new employee you might increase production/sales, but if the new production/sales won't compensate for increased health care for that new employee, the employer cannot hire.
Same song, different verse.
I still see the Dow at 9,900; unemployment at 9.9%, and oil at $99/bbl going into November elections. I hope I am "unexpectedly" surprised. Worse: Dow at 9,000, unemployment at 9%, and oil at $90/bbl. It's gonna be one or the other: bad or worse.
2. Retail sales: Analysts surprised at huge drop in retail sales in May.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales at retailers unexpectedly fell in May for the first time since September following a record slump in purchases of building materials, adding to fears the economic recovery was losing some steam.How do these highly paid, highly respected analysts get it wrong so often? When reported, the actual results always seem to "surprise" the analysts.
The Commerce Department said total retail sales dropped 1.2 percent, the largest decline since September, after rising by an upwardly revised 0.6 percent in April. Sales in April were previously reported to have increased 0.4 percent.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales rising 0.2 percent last month.
They weren't off by a little; they were off by a huge amount -- first in the wrong direction (retail sales unexpectedly fell when they were forecast to rise) -- and second, this was not a slight decline -- this was the largest decline since about a year ago.
I can't make this stuff up.
3. Jobs: from the Boston Business Journal, June 11, 2010: 14% of employers believed Obamacare would contain health care costs, and only 20 % believed it would improve the quality of care. And that, folks, is the number one reason why employers won't hire new employees: they're waiting to see how Obamacare shakes out. It isn't going to look pretty. With a new employee you might increase production/sales, but if the new production/sales won't compensate for increased health care for that new employee, the employer cannot hire.
Same song, different verse.
I still see the Dow at 9,900; unemployment at 9.9%, and oil at $99/bbl going into November elections. I hope I am "unexpectedly" surprised. Worse: Dow at 9,000, unemployment at 9%, and oil at $90/bbl. It's gonna be one or the other: bad or worse.
One Step Closer
One step closer.
North Dakota senators vote to maintain the status quo: EPA allowed to determine/state that carbon dioxide and water (the two major components of "greenhouse" gases") are hazardous to one's health. Water vapor contributes up to 76% and carbon dioxide contributes up to 26%. Other gases are negligible.
(Note: scientists "never" mention that water vapor is the major component, three times as much as carbon dioxide. But that's a story for another time.)
EPA now proposes rules/regulations which are generally rubber-stamped by legislative bodies. That has been my observation. I am often wrong.
These links often get broken in a few days, either lost forever, or requiring a password (free/paid subscription).
EPA remains interested in regulating fracking through the Clean Water Act (not noted in this article).
North Dakota senators vote to maintain the status quo: EPA allowed to determine/state that carbon dioxide and water (the two major components of "greenhouse" gases") are hazardous to one's health. Water vapor contributes up to 76% and carbon dioxide contributes up to 26%. Other gases are negligible.
(Note: scientists "never" mention that water vapor is the major component, three times as much as carbon dioxide. But that's a story for another time.)
EPA now proposes rules/regulations which are generally rubber-stamped by legislative bodies. That has been my observation. I am often wrong.
These links often get broken in a few days, either lost forever, or requiring a password (free/paid subscription).
EPA remains interested in regulating fracking through the Clean Water Act (not noted in this article).
Update on Bakken Activity: Human Interest Story
Update on on "Bakken activity" from the Minot Daily News.com.
These links generally get broken a few days after they are posted; some gone forever, others requiring a password (free/paid subscription).
If broken, the article just noted that oil activity is picking up as the industry moves east toward Minot.
It does not say so in the article, but Williston still remains the center.
These links generally get broken a few days after they are posted; some gone forever, others requiring a password (free/paid subscription).
If broken, the article just noted that oil activity is picking up as the industry moves east toward Minot.
It does not say so in the article, but Williston still remains the center.
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