Three Unrelated Notes: Not About the Bakken

1. Double-speak (that's easy for you to say):  The White House works behind the scenes to ease UN sanctions on Iran.  Obama will support anti-Israel resolution at UN next week. I can't make this stuff up.

2. Retail sales:  Analysts surprised at huge drop in retail sales in May.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales at retailers unexpectedly fell in May for the first time since September following a record slump in purchases of building materials, adding to fears the economic recovery was losing some steam.

The Commerce Department said total retail sales dropped 1.2 percent, the largest decline since September, after rising by an upwardly revised 0.6 percent in April. Sales in April were previously reported to have increased 0.4 percent.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales rising 0.2 percent last month.

How do these highly paid, highly respected analysts get it wrong so often? When reported, the actual results always seem to "surprise" the analysts.

They weren't off by a little; they were off by a huge amount -- first in the wrong direction (retail sales unexpectedly fell when they were forecast to rise) -- and second, this was not a slight decline -- this was the largest decline since about a year ago.

I can't make this stuff up.

3. Jobs: from the Boston Business Journal, June 11, 2010: 14% of employers believed Obamacare would contain health care costs, and only 20 % believed it would improve the quality of care. And that, folks, is the number one reason why employers won't hire new employees: they're waiting to see how Obamacare shakes out. It isn't going to look pretty. With a new employee you might increase production/sales, but if the new production/sales won't compensate for increased health care for that new employee, the employer cannot hire.

Same song, different verse.

I still see the Dow at 9,900; unemployment at 9.9%, and oil at $99/bbl going into November elections. I hope I am "unexpectedly" surprised.  Worse: Dow at 9,000, unemployment at 9%, and oil at $90/bbl.  It's gonna be one or the other: bad or worse.