Intel -- The Spin-Offs Begin -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48615INTEL.

Link here.

From the linked article:

Intel is looking to sell at least a minority stake in its Altera unit in a transaction that would raise several billion dollars in cash for the struggling chipmaker.

Intel is looking for a deal that values Altera at around $17 billion, said the people, who requested anonymity to speak freely about confidential information. Intel purchased Altera for $16.7 billion in 2015.

A representative for Intel declined to comment. The sale process represents an abrupt change from Intel’s prior commentary on Altera. As recently last month, CEO Pat Gelsinger said that Intel’s leadership considered the business to be a core part of Intel’s future.

Intel has previously said it could look to monetize Altera business through an IPO, possibly as soon as 2026. But the idea of taking strategic or private equity investment would be a marked acceleration of those plans.

One of several things going on, or possibly a combination:

Intel is burning through cash at a dangerous pace.

Intel needs a lot more cash to carry out plans to build more foundries overseas that have been "put on hold."

Intel needs cash -- period -- to even begin to compete with the other magnificent seven whose pockets are very, very deep. Another one of the magnificent seven joined the trillion-dollar club today.

Intel (INTC) market cap: <$100 billion. 

But if a month ago, Altera was considered a core part of Intel's future or tonight the CEO is willing to spin it off -- speaks volumes.

Foreign Exchange Reserves In Russia And Saudi -- September, 2024

Locator: 48614SAUDI.

Link here.

Saudi, August, 2024, link here:

Good, Bad, Or Indifferent -- I Have No Dog In This Fight -- I Lost Interest A Long Time Ago -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48613PRESIDENTIALPOLITICS.

Having said that...

October 17, 2024: biggest "tells" in the past 365 days suggesting Kamala Harris was on the wrong side of history: three Ivy League presidents were ousted because of their support for the Hamas (aka, the Palestinians); "every" major US corporation distanced themselves from DEI as fast as they could; and, the degree to which the US is now supporting Israel (sending US troops to Israel).

October 17, 2024: some suggest that Kamala lost ground following the Fox interview, but there's a bigger question. Why in the world did she ever agree to do an interview with Fox? Remember, she doesn't do interview and this late in the campaign, she's not out to practice. There are only two reasons why she did the interview: internal polling showed that the race was closer than the NYTimes is making it out to be or internal polling shows she has absolutely no chance to win the race as it stands now, and it's time for her to pull out all the stops, including an interview with Fox. Making the decision to do an interview with Fox came down to this: internal polling suggested that doing the interview was her only chance.

October 17, 2024: if you look at the electoral college as it "stands" today -- unless it's very, very close in a couple of the following states, we will probably know the outcome by 8:01 p.m. CDT. Right now it hinges on these three states, and for good measure, throw in the fourth: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Wisconsin.

Director's Cut, October, 2024, Data -- Posted

Locator: 48612B.

EIA weekly petroleum report: link here.

• US crude oil in storage: 5% below the five-year average -- where it's been for months.
• refiners: 87.7% -- very low, but where it's been for awhile.
• jet fuel supplied up an astounding 10.4% y/y

Gasoline demand, link here. Unremarkable.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

Director's Cut, October, 2024, data. Link here.

Crude oil production:

• July, 2024: 1,169,499 bopd
• August, 2024: 1,179,131 bopd

Natural gas capture: 95%.

Clearing Off The Desktop -- Thursday, October 17, 2024

Locator: 48611B.

Ran out of caves in which to hide:

GDPNow: link here. Latest estimate, October 17, 2024: 3.4%. Up from 3.2 previously. Liz Ann Sonders.

NVDA: hit a 52-week high today.

TSM: has joined the $1-trillion club. Link here. 

Stacking: Apple has been doing this for quite some time. Previously reported. Link here.

Netflix: simply amazing. Expectations. Results. Will air two NFL games Christmas Day -- that's four NFL teams for fans to watch.

California: why gasoline prices are so high. PSX to exit refinery in California. Loses $600 million lawsuit.

A California jury has determined that Phillips 66 (PSX, Financial), a prominent U.S. oil and gas company, must pay up to $604.9 million to Propel Fuel Company for misusing its trade secrets to advance its renewable fuels business. The jury found that Phillips 66, headquartered in Houston, pretended to gather potential acquisition information to steal confidential data from Propel, based in Sacramento. This information was allegedly utilized to create a competing business.

The case stems from events back in 2017 when Phillips 66 approached Propel with acquisition intentions to expand its renewable fuel operations in California, a state promoting low-carbon fuel alternatives. However, Phillips 66 withdrew from the deal in 2018 and launched its renewable fuel products in 2019. Propel subsequently filed a lawsuit in 2022 against Phillips 66, accusing the company of illegally using trade secrets, including confidential negotiations that revealed financial data and business strategies.

Apple air tags, link here.

Oasis With Three New Erickson Permits, Glass Bluff -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48610B.

ENB: hit a 52-week high today. Pays 6.5%. 

SRE: hit a 52-week high today. Pays 2.5%.

NVDA: hit a 52-week high today. 

TSM: hit a 52-week high today.

Earnings season: incredibly good and the economic numbers released today, incredible. Exhibit A: Netflix and Intuitive Surgical earnings, released after hours.

Netflix: is going to require a stand-alone post.

The fourth industrial revolution -- the AI revolution. It just doesn't seem to me that (m)any of the CNBC talking heads get it yet. Exception: Jim Cramer.

Investors: one gets the feeling that a lot of investors are not serious about making money. And I'm talking about several contributors on "Fast Money" and "Half-Time Report."

MMF: first time in months, there was a net outflow. Link here. Decreased by $6.56 billion to $6.46 trillion for the week ended October 16, 2024. 

******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.84.

Active rigs: 40.

Four new permits, #41253 - #41256, inclusive:

• Operators: Oasis (3); Silver Hill Energy Operating
• Fields: Glass Bluff (McKenzie); North Tioga (Burke)
• Comments:
• Silver Hill Energy has a permit for a Casey E well, NENE 11-159-94, 
• to be sited 420 FNL and 945 FEL;
• Oasis has permits for three Erickson wells, 
• to be sited between 823 FNL, 834 FNL, 823 FNL, and, 794 FEL, 763 FEL, 794 FEL.

PSX --Phillips 66 -- Shutting LA-Area Refinery After Governor Signs Bill -- Being Reported Everywhere -- Traders Love It -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48609CALIFORNIA.

WSJ story here.

The Sara Eisen Hour -- S&P, Dow At Record Highs -- Part 1 -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48608CRAMER.

The Eisen Hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to the Eisen hour on CNBC. 

ECB: 

• EU economy: tilted to the "downside"
• in a deflationary cycle
• the back-to-back cut today was the ECB's third cut this year to try to stimulate the anemic European economy
• there's a reason the inflation rate in many European countries has a 1-handle
• folks complain about interest rates / inflation rates in the US -- hmmmm?

US, link here:

Disinflation, deflationary: recurring theme on the blog for the past six months -- we are re-doing our kitchen -- setting a higher bar — will post photo later next week — kitchen re-model might cost us $60, tops.

Kitchen appliances:

• air fryer: practically being given away
• Instant Pot: ditto
• electric speed-boil kettles — hot water for instant coffee; tea
• Keurig, of course
• electric hot pot for soup -- do I even need an oven?
  
• except for Thanksgiving turkey -- do I even need a stove?
• option: smoked turkey from local vendor 

Screenshots: these are current prices -- nothing to do with Prime Day sales -- prices cut over 20% -- seeing this everywhere on Amazon Prime -- cuts of 20% to 30% on literally "everything" in which I'm interested. 

OKE:

Copper: 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Cramer's First Hour -- "EV Market Just Awful" -- Part 5 -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48607CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Cramer: "EV market just awful."

• Cramer very clear on this
• David Faber trying to pushback on that.
• Cramer and Carl smack David down on that.
• Yes, "the EV market is just awful" -- Carl's exhibit A: Germany EVs sales down 60%

If Apple is doing so badly, what's it doing in a daily footrace with Nvidia?

Cramer: spending a lot of time on Apple.

Danaher (DHR): breaking out!

TNF tonight. Whoo-hoo! 

Yorkshire: flashes of Yorkshire, 2004, surge through my parietal lobe --> frontal lobe.

Kitchen appliances:

• air fryer: practically being given away
• Instant Pot: ditto
• electric speed-boil kettles
• electric hot pot for soup -- do I even need an oven;
  
• except for Thanksgiving turkey -- do I even need a stove; 
  

At the open: VIX below 20 and S&P only 25 points below 5,900 -- regardless, S&P at a record high --

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 4 -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48606CRAMER.

Breaking: the ECB cut rates for the second meeting in a row to support an increasingly anemic European economy.  At 3.25%.

• US: effective Fed rate -- 4.85%
• ECB: 3.25% to 3.65%
• seriously: any significance difference between US and EU? With regard to central bank rates?
• has anyone noticed: all three central banks are stimulating their country’s / regional economy: the US, China, the EU?

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Retail sales: can't wait to hear Cramer's take on these numbers today. 

Stocks will flirt with all-time highs today. A continued record run; 47 new highs so far this year.

Unemployment rates fall significantly; catch folks by surprise.

Cramer: holy mackerel -- his enthusiasm for TSMC and NVDA is incredible -- even for Cramer --

• even if TSM / NVDA double their production, "they" won't be "able to keep up"
• TSM: quarterly profit soars on AI demand;

Amazing earnings season so far. 

What I'm following: natural gas pipelines. And copper. 

Health care stocks: plummeting.

CPI:

• Great Britain: 1.7
• France: 1.1
• Italy: 1.6

Wow, wow, wow, 45 minutes after econ numbers came out -- pre-market surging.

Israel: may have killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar! Google this. Prime Israeli target for years.

Industrial production: not great numbers -- LOL -- could someone please do some analysis before getting all worked up on this?

• -0.3% vs -0.2% estimate
• US autos: in the doldrums (exhibit A: Stellantis; EVs)
• Boeing machinists remain on strike
• not being talked about: US manufacturers quietly moving operations to Mexico (again)

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 3 -- Retail Sales Huge -- US Consumer Incredibly Resilient -- Look At Retail Sales Ex Autos -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48606CRAMER.

US retails sales:

• huge point being missed -- see if you can see it:
• retail sales: 0.4% vs 0.3% forecast
• retail sales ex auto: 0.5% vs 0.1% forecast
  

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Why the market is surging: let's not overthink it. 

Retail sales: this is truly amazing.

• big number
• consumers showing even more resilience
• 0.4% vs 0.3%
• 0.5% vs 0.1% (ex autos)
• 241K vs 260K
• 10.3 vs 3.0 Philly Fed Manufacturing
• bottom line: no need for another Fed rate cut
• JPow: "we're in no rush"

CNBC analysts: 

• fixated on the Fed
• missing the big story: how incredibly strong the US economy is -- truly amazing
• Philly Fed Manufacturing: 10.3 vs 3.0 not even mentioned

US equity markets, pre-market after retail sales and employment numbers released:

• the markets, pre-market trading
• Dow: up 83 points; had been in the red earlier this morning
• S&P 500: up another 30 points; solidly over 5,900
• NASDAQ: new pre-market high (last 24 hours) -- up 185 points
• what's going on?

US retails sales:

• huge point being missed -- see if you can see it:
• retail sales: 0.4% vs 0.3% forecast
• retail sales ex auto: 0.5% vs 0.1% forecast

• traders/investors: no longer care about the Fed (don't take that out of context
• the big story: the strength of the US economy
• oil is cheap and getting cheaper
  
• ECB (European Central Bank): first time in history -- a back-to-back cut in "Central Bank" rates.
• turkeys -- Thanksgiving turkeys -- cheaper per pound than last year
  

Quick: how many 80-year-olds can dance non-stop for 39 minutes?

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 2 -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48605CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Experian: this is not a paid ad. If you do nothing else of "financial" consequence today, do this --

• lock / freeze all three credit agencies (Experian, TransUnion, Equifax)
• download and set up the Experian app for your mobile phone and tablet 
• you can thank me later.

Lucid: from Barron's, link here.

Lucid Group LCID stock fell sharply after the electric-vehicle manufacturer said it was planning a substantial public offering and projected wider-than-anticipated losses for the third quarter.

The public offering would involve 262 million shares, the company said in a statement late Wednesday.

Proceeds will be used for capital expenditures and working capital, among other things, Lucid said.

[Whisper: ".... will be used to keep the company afloat; burning through cash."]

Lucid’s announcement came as demand for electric vehicles has been weakening, which has weighed on shares of EV makers.

[Whisper: "... by now we should be well along the up-slope of the S-curve on EV penetration; not happening.]

Lucid, as well as rival car makers such as Tesla and Rivian have lowered prices on their vehicles in an effort to compete with Chinese manufacturers that are offering cheaper models.

[Whisper: "... blame it on the Chinese. Quick, how many Chinese EVs do you see in your neighborhood?"]

In a filing with securities regulators Wednesday, Lucid estimated that its loss from operations would range between $765 million and $790 million in the third quarter, a wider loss than the $752 million expected by analysts polled by FactSet. The company is scheduled to report full third-quarter earnings on November 7, 2024.

Generated by AI:

Recurring themes on the blog:

• I'm in the process of updating themes for 2026
• 2026: will be a watershed year for EVs
• pivot from solar / wind to nuclear still getting all the attention
• nuclear SMRs going to be a lot more difficult than folks think
• urban mayors are going to think twice about a nuclear reactor -- no matter how small -- in their backyards

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 1 -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48604CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.   

Inflation: the data is in -- the evidence is clear cut -- inflation:supply and demand -- nothing to do with government spending 

Don't take that out of context.

More later.

But it's obvious. 

And the "price of eggs due to inflation due to government spending" is getting tedious. Anyone who talks about the price of eggs in this context is …. shall we say, obtuse?

Housing prices: nothing to do with government spending; everything to do with supply and demand.

Same with rent.

Auto insurance? Nothing to do with government or national deficit.

More to follow. 

Everything, everywhere happening all at once. 

In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work, Kyla Scanlon, c. 2024.

Exhibit A:

October 14, 2024: avian flu -- egg-laying hens hit harder than turkeys -- now, can we move on?

October 13, 2024: Walmart: awesome. Protein at 88 cents / pound is pretty cheap source of protein. Salmon $5 for four ounces, or $20 / lb.

This is an incredible "moment" for Walmart. They love "rolling back" prices and as fast as wholesale prices are falling, Walmart is passing those savings to retail customers as fast as they can. "Our" Walmart was filled with "rollback" tags today. But frozen turkeys is what caught my eye. At 98 cents / pound, less expensive than last Thanksgiving, and now Walmart has rolled back that price to 88 cents / pound.

Speaking of Walmart: 

We have a Costco membership and an Amazon Prime membership and we've never seen a need for a Sam's Club membership. I may reconsider for one year. From our local neighborhood flyer:

Nearly two years after a tornado damaged Sam’s Club, doors will be open at the wholesale club starting on October 16, 2024. 

This Sam’s Club -- just down the street from us -- will be the first in the country without any registers or cashiers, allowing customers to use their app’s scan and go feature to shop.

The Grapevine location will feature many technology features not in other stores, being the first digital-first store ... that includes a robot that can make 190 pizzas in an hour order custom-made sushi in the app and an e-commerce order area that is four times larger than any other Sam’s Club store.

$50 / year. Yeah, gonna join. At least for a year. Gotta see the robot. Plus all the other benefits. Truly amazing. $50 / year = $1 / week.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Six Wells Coming Off Confidential List These Next Two Days -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48603B.

WTI: $70.37.

Friday, October 18, 2024: 36 for the month; 36 for the quarter, 550 for the year
26027, conf, Grayson Mill, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-11H
26025, conf, Grayson Mill, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-4H,
22198, conf, Grayson Mill, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-3H, 

Thurssday, October 17, 2024: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter, 547 for the year
40314, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 3B,
40194, conf, Hess, EN-L Cvancara-LS-155-93-2826H-2,
39214, conf, BR, Parrish-Kermit 5B TFH-ULW,

RBN Energy: as the oil patch matures, it must adapt to a changing opportunity landscape.

Since the advent of the Shale Revolution, the U.S. has experienced a massive surge in oil, gas and NGL production — creating a bonanza of opportunities. But the attitudes of energy companies, owners and investors have shifted from “drill-baby-drill” to a focus on returning value to shareholders. It’s an evolution reminiscent of the economic concept known as the product life cycle. And that got us thinking. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the introduction, growth and maturity phases of the Shale Revolution, assess where we are today, and explore a couple of potential paths forward.

Breaking: Tech Stocks Soar -- Across The Board -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48602TECH.

Quickly, this is all pre-market:

• EU: central bank set for first back-to-back interest rate cut in 13 years
• NASDAQ (tech heavy): up 170 points:
• strong earnings, macro conditions propelling stocks up
  
• TSMC rise 8%; quarterly profit soars on AI demand;
• Lucid shares tumble; Saudi bet on the wrong horse; Barron's link here;
  
• it's all about retail spending report -- 7:30 a.m. CDT
• Novavax shares plunge; FDA puts hold on covid-flu combo
• health insurers generally plunge; Elevance Health down 14%
• Expedia up 7%; quick what does Expedia do
• MLB viewership surges
• Biden administration forgives $4.5 billion in student debt 
• 60,000 borrowers
• $75K/student
  

Tech stocks, again all pre-market:

• TSM: up $15; up 8%
• NVDA: up $3.91; up 2.88%
  
• AAPL: up $1.62; up 0.7%
• AVGO: up $4.78; up 2.7%
• QCOM: up $3.27; up 1.9%
• AMD: up $3.77; up 2.4%
• MSFT: up $2.15; up 0.5%
  
• PLTR: up 13 cents; up 0.3%; trading at $42; down from its recent high
• INTC: up 24 cents; up 1%

Yesterday's blog:

Personal investing: "backed up the truck" on SCHG as Cramer would say. Past tense. Largest addition to this position in quite some time. Top holdings (below), and they say this is not a "tech" ETF. After the split, Sophia got really, really excited. LOL.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.