Focus On Dividends -- October 20, 2026

Locator: 51985DIVIDENDS.

PSX: just announced -- 

SCCO: just announced -- 

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Science Trumps Conspiracy Theories

Wednesday Morning -- October 20, 2026

Locator: 51984B.

 Updates

October 21, 2026: WTI --- $97.86.

Original Post
Posted Tuesday Eveninig 

WTI: $99.26, up $1.44, up 1.47%. This is closer to $100 than $90. 

New wells reporting:

• Thursday, October 22, 2026: 55 for the month, 55 for the quarter, 554 for the year,     
• 42444, conf, SOGC, Forest 2-1 HLE, 
• 41407, conf, Enerplus, Crying Tree 147-97-8-5-9H-ELL,
• Wednesday, October 21, 2026: 53 for the month, 53 for the quarter, 552 for the year, 
• 41920, conf, Hess, GO-Barb-LE-157-97-3523H-1,
• 41475, conf, Enerplus, Crying Tree 147-97-8-5-8H, 
• 41474, conf, Enerplus, Crying Tree 147-97-8-5-7H,

RBN Energy: attacks, altered crude flows, unbalanced fleets push tanker freight rates to record levels. Link here. Archived.

Freight rates are sky-high right now. Japanese oil major Cosmo Oil chartered a 2020-built Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) on October 8 to ship 2 MMbbl of crude oil from the U.S. Gulf Coast for $81 million, double September's market rate and about 5X a year ago. Higher rates show that freight, not the price of crude, has become the swing cost for moving Atlantic Basin barrels to the far east. In today's RBN blog, we look at the unique combination of factors, including new routes for Middle Eastern crude and increased purchases by China, that are helping drive freight rates to record highs.

Here at RBN, we regularly track crude oil tanker voyages and freight rates, but this topic has rarely (if ever) made it into our blogosphere. That said, things have changed significantly this year— freight rates have been on a wild ride. To help make sense of it all, we turned to our friends at McQuilling Services, a U.S.-based shipping consultancy that tracks and forecasts the tanker market. The big picture: The jump in tanker rates, especially for VLCCs, isn't due to any single disruption. Instead, it's driven by a combination of stronger demand for long-haul crude shipments and a sharp drop in available vessels, with many contributing factors that have sent rates through the roof — and relief is not expected anytime soon. This is our first in a new series looking at freight rates.

Understanding Freight Rates

Before getting too far into the details, it’s worth explaining how tanker freight rates are measured. Shipping costs can be expressed in dollars per voyage or in Worldscale (WS) points, an industry-standard system that measures freight rates relative to a benchmark for a specific route. Worldscale 100 (WS100) represents the published benchmark freight rate for a route, while quotes above or below 100, referred to as “spot rates,” indicate a premium or discount to that benchmark.

For example, if the published Worldscale benchmark rate is $20 per metric ton (MT):

WS100 = $20/MT (100% of benchmark)

WS150 = $30/MT (150% of benchmark)

WS75 = $15/MT (75% of benchmark)

(Note: VLCC is mostly quoted in dollars and Aframax rates are commonly quoted in WS. Though lump-sum pricing is also used on some routes. Spot rates can then be distilled further to time charter equivalent (TCE) figures, which standardizes how much money a vessel earns per day after accounting for voyage-related costs, such as fuel, port charges, and canal fees for both laden and ballast legs.)

The cost of a VLCC voyage from the Gulf Coast to Asia (red line and right axis in Figure 1 below) reached its highest point on record in early October, and most of that move has happened in just the last few weeks. 

Prior to the start of the War in Iran earlier this year, the voyage cost typically ranged between $8 million and $14 million. However, once the conflict began and the Strait of Hormuz closed, the range of reasonable freight rates became a thing of the past. 

VLCC costs doubled from $15 million the last week of February to nearly $30 million the first week of March, setting the first of many new record highs. From March through August, voyage costs generally ranged between about $18 million and $25 million, with some cooling off in June before momentum picked back up. In early October, the cost skyrocketed to more than $80 million. (That works out to roughly $40/bbl, compared with a historical norm of $4-$5/bbl.) The nearly $30 million voyage cost that seemed extraordinary in March — more than double the upper end of the prewar range — now looks modest. Rates have since eased off the record, with the VLCC voyage at $65.39 million as of October 19 — still nearly five times the top of the prewar range. The Aframax voyage from the USGC to Europe (blue line and left axis) has been choppier this year, but it reached WS1,000 on October 6, about 6X the year-ago rate, before easing to WS648.89 by October 19, 2026.

The CoreWeave Conundrum -- For The Archives -- October 20, 2026

Locator: 51983ARCHIVES.

For the archives. See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

The Gartner report that is gaining some interest this past week: 

Earlier this evening a reader sent me an excerpt from a Gartner report that is gaining a lot of interest. He's AI: 

More than $3.5 trillion in artificial intelligence infrastructure spending is exposed to potential write-downs and asset impairment by the end of 2030 due to a widening revenue gap. Gartner projects that cumulative data-center revenue will reach no more than $3.6 trillion, falling drastically short of the $8.5 trillion required to cover heavy capital expenditures, financing costs, and a standard investment return. Read the full press release at Gartner (link here).

Other links: 

I call this the CoreWeave conundrum. Earlier this evening I posted this:

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Neoclouds vs Hyperscalers 

Neoclouds are specialized, AI-first cloud providers engineered from the ground up for high-performance GPU compute, whereas hyperscalers are massive, general-purpose cloud platforms offering hundreds of virtualized services for diverse enterprise workloads. 

See also, link. Link here: https://share.google/aimode/uudODBrZbDcImNfO2.

This is a very, very important analysis, link. Link here: https://share.google/aimode/1hY30kiMKcQbjlcP2. At the link, scroll to the top and then read a very, very long analysis. 

From a few minutes ago:

What does Jim Cramer have to say about CoreWeave?
 

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Disclaimer

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 

I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM. Nothing on this site should be seen as recommendations for the general public. On the other hand, I have no problem if members of my extended family "see" recommendations I might be making - but only members of my extended family, limited to my children and my grandchildren.

Longer version here.

Big Day For AI -- Or Super Intelligence As It Is Called Now -- October 20, 2026

Locator: 51982TECH.

Anticipation: the SpaceX earnings call today -- absolutely amazing. Anthropic -- ditto. The SpaceX videos on YouTube are must-watch videos. United Airlines, earnings call, the CEO says they need more "compute." You can howl at the wind but AI is here to stay. Except now it's called SI (super intelligence). 

See disclaimer. 

"SpaceX shares surge." 

********************************
Neoclouds vs Hyperscalers 

Neoclouds are specialized, AI-first cloud providers engineered from the ground up for high-performance GPU compute, whereas hyperscalers are massive, general-purpose cloud platforms offering hundreds of virtualized services for diverse enterprise workloads. 

See also, link. Link here: https://share.google/aimode/uudODBrZbDcImNfO2.

This is a very, very important analysis, link. Link here: https://share.google/aimode/1hY30kiMKcQbjlcP2. At the link, scroll to the top and then read a very, very long analysis. 

********************************
Disclaimer

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 

I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM. Nothing on this site should be seen as recommendations for the general public. On the other hand, I have no problem if members of my extended family "see" recommendations I might be making - but only members of my extended family, limited to my children and my grandchildren.

Longer version here.

Daily Activity Report With Public Service Announcement (PSA) -- Four New Oil & Gas Permits -- October 20, 2026

Locator: 51981B.

PSA -- Personal note: I finally got around to applying for my TSA Pre-Check number. 

Applied on-line. Arranged for an appointment at Staples the next day. That was yesterday. Today, I received my "known traveler numbers" -- KTN -- or my TSA Pre-Check number. The on-line system said the process could take up to six weeks. I was incredibly surprised when I was informed by e-mail today (one day later) that my KTN had been issued. I've already updated my security settings with my most-used airline. Amazing.  

Cramer's last hour: 

• best of breed narrative. The two he mentioned: AAPL and NVDA. Later, he added JNJ.
• he mentioned only two sectors when discussing "best of breed": tech and health. 
• which "p/e" does he recommend folks follow? P/E estimates for next year and two years out.
• get out of a position if a CEO resigns for unknown personal reasons; a rule; there are exceptions;
• watch bonds. 

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $97.82. Being reported as $101.79 by CNBC. 

Active rigs: 37. 

Four new oil & gas permits, #43425, #43426, #43428, #43429

• Operators: Slawson, 
• Field: Tyrone
• Comments: 
• Slawson has permits for four Ambush wells, SESW 31-156-100, and will be 
• sited 465 FSL and 1490 / 1640 FWL.

NDIC Director's Cut -- August 2026 Data -- To Be Released Today -- October 20, 2026

Locator: 51980B.

North Dakota’s latest production figures from August 2026 were released earlier TODAY at 10:00am CST: the NDIC's October Director’s Cut. Link here.

Wall Street earnings being announced: a lot of analysts and pundits are "eating crow." 

SpaceX specifically reporting incredible numbers. Beats across the board, particularly in SI (super-intelligence), previously known as AI. If Warren Buffett's earning reports were must-read reports, that ticker has been replaced by SpaceX. Their earnings call is going to get a lot of press. 

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The Book Page
Moby Dick

Just released. A facsimile reproduction of the original 1930 publication.

Link. Link here: https://share.google/aimode/O6bfgDlk6DGPBnwf1. 

Full novel online: Project Gutenberg eBook 2701. Link here. 

Project Gutenberg. Link here.