Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Huge Deal -- Feds Will Help Pay For New Williston Airport -- August 26, 2020

I assume North Dakota's US congressman and US senators were instrumental in this:

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #76 -- Fast And Furious -- August 26, 2020

See this note from earlier today.

At that site, be sure to see the first comment and my reply.

It truly does not matter to me the specifics of this oil / natural gas discovery. What impresses me is the entrepreneurial fortitude and human spirit. With all that is going on in the oil sector these days, I find it simply amazing we still see stories like this. Good for them.

Rich Men

Elon Musk: said to be the fourth-richest person in the world.
Jeff Bezos: world's first-ever $200-billion man.


This is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Apple / AAPL

Is Apple headed for $3 trillion market cap? Motley Fool.
Apple confirms acquisition of AR startup Spaces. Axios.
AAPL will hit $600. Barron's. Actually it will hit $125 before it hits $600. LOL.


Finally hit a new 52-week intra-day high.

  • P/E: 24
  • pays 2%

Market Close

Jim Cramer

I was blown away by the companies Jim Cramer featured today. The market is bifurcating faster than anyone could imagine. Maybe more on this later.


Hurricane Harvey exactly three years ago was one of the worst hurricanes I can recall in my short personal history with hurricanes. It is very, very clear that Hurricane Laura is going to be much worse than Hurricane Harvey, if that's possible. 

From an energy perspective, I think this may have a much bigger impact than currently being reported.  

Based on what I'm seeing / hearing, my hunch is there will be a real gasoline shortage by this time next week. If I'm wrong, it will be because I don't know where the refineries are specifically located. 

Weather forecasters are suggesting Hurricane Rita will be the hurricane Laura will be compared to for Cameron, Lake Charles, and Port Arthur. High astronomical tides and the hurricane push will probably mean tomorrow morning, 0500 - 0900, will be the max surge.

NYC: I Knew It Was Bad; I Did Not Know It Was That Bad, What Happened? -- Now DOJ Is Asking The Same Question -- Asking Governors Of NY, NJ, PA, And MI For Info -- August 26, 2020

 Re-posting from August 21, 2020:

  • Wuhan flu:  
    • NYC:I'm not following this story very closely any more, but the graph at this link is amazing; I knew it was bad in NYC, but I did not know it was that bad;

Did the experience in NYC drive US policy? US fear? DOJ is curious. Asking governors of NY, NJ, PA, and MI for info to help find out. Link here.

Themes -- 2020 -- Updated

 Themes - 2020 commentary updated.

Covid-19 pandemic:

  • counterintuitively, the pandemic accelerated US (global?) 2030 into 2020;
  • was the market's worse "black swan" in decades actually a soaring eagle in disguise?

A lot of people are truly hurting, but at the macro level, things look pretty good. Yes, I know the counter-argument: the Fed. But it is what it is.

Next sector to benefit: health. "Operation Warp Speed."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Flat-Lined -- August 26, 2020

Gasoline demand, link here:

Anticipating A Category 5 Hurricane -- Winds Up To 145 MPH Now; Gulf Water Very Warm; Kraken With Four New Permits -- August 26, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1163625530

Four new permits, #37807 - #37810, inclusive --

  • Operator: Kraken
  • Field: Oliver
  • Comments:
    • Kraken has permits for four permits in SESE 9-157-98, Oliver oil field; the four wells will be 360' FSL and about 1200' FEL;
  • see comments below -- a reader -- "Release the Kraken!"

Five permits renewed:

  • Equinor (2): two Reiten permits in Williams County;
  • Oasis (2): two Dahl permits in McKenzie County;
  • XTO: a Prairie Federal permit in McKenzie County;

Backed Into A Corner -- Add Cuba -- August 26, 2020

Add Cuba to the list. Cash-strapped Cuba adds more power cuts

Cuba is deepening power cuts as US sanctions on its main fuel supplier Venezuela make it harder for the island to keep its lights on.

Venezuela's state-owned PdV has long supplied crude and fuel to Cuba under a barter agreement dating back two decades. But PdV's own production has fallen sharply and its refineries are mostly broken. One products tanker that has frequently shuttled between the two countries, the Cuba-flagged Maria Cristina also known as Carlota C, is currently berthed at the Cuban port of Cienfuegos after sailing from the Venezuelan terminal of El Palito in late July, according to ship-tracking data.

Cuba's state-owned Cupet has not answered a request for information about the status of its 65,000 b/d Cienfuegos refinery or oil import volumes.

Havana's past imports requiring cash payment have come from Russia, Iran, Algeria and Angola.

But Cuba has little hard currency to spare as foreign tourism wanes because of the Covid-19 pandemic and the US administration's blocking of cruise ships and flight restrictions.

Darn that Covid-19.

Posted earlier:

Backed into a corner:

Most Under-Reported Story: A Follow-Up Story To Covid-19 And The Sturgis Rally -- August 26,2020

Note: In a long note like this and done quickly, there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. When looking at statistics from the linked site, be sure to check out whether you are looking at "today's" data which would be incomplete or "yesterday's" data which would be more complete.

Compare the total number of deaths in the Bakken with the total number of deaths in the city of Mandan or the city of Bismarck.

I've pretty much lost interest in Covid-19 for reasons which I've already discussed, but this was beyond the pale. Cases in North Dakota have hit an all-time high; Bismarck is off the chart compared to Fargo with regard to number of active cases. Grand Forks, home of UND, is not far behind Bismarck. But is the number of deaths in Fargo compared to the rest of the cities in North Dakota that really grabs your attention. 

I've not seen any follow-up reporting yet with regard to Covid-19 and the Sturgis rally.

I track the Wuhan flu here

At that site you can track statistics by state

From The Bismarck Tribune today:

Deaths per capita, North Dakota and South Dakota almost identical, yesterday's data:
  • North Dakota statistics here. By deaths per capita, North Dakota is ranked #41 with 181 deaths per million and had strict lock down mandates.
  • South Dakota statistics here. By deaths per capita, South Dakota is ranked #40 with 182 deaths per million and had minimal lock down mandates and allowed the annual Sturgis rally to proceed.

Cases per million, yesterday's data:

  • North Dakota is #29 with 13,423 cases per million population
  • South Dakota #32 with 13,005 cases per million population (better)

Talking The Market Down -- CNBC -- August 26, 2020

CNBC: as discussed before, it is difficult for CNBC to turn on a dime. Two weeks out, the producers start preparing the theme for the day and start lining up guests. As the date approaches, the theme and the guest line-up is tweaked, until finally the day of the broadcast, the theme is set and guests appears. This continues on a rolling basis. 

It will be interesting to watch the talking heads continue to try to talk this market down.

Holy mackerel. The NASDAQ is exploding, trending toward a gain of 150 points. Holy mackerel. The Dow, negative, is also trending better. The S&P 500 trending toward a gain of another 20 points. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 will set all-time records.

So, what influences the market:

  • the Fed: that's the buzz; that this market is all about the Fed; who am I to argue; CNBC is leading that Jay Powell won't pour anti-retardant on this fire called the NASDAQ in tomorrow's speech;
  • fundamentals/earnings: 2Q20 earnings are coming in a whole lot better than expected;
  • FOMO: explains the action of the millennials;
  • global geopolitics: peace continues to break out
  • stimulus: stalemate continues; it behooves the Dems to stall at this point; the airlines have announced there will be major furloughs, layoffs if no stimulus;

So, that's it. There's one more factor. We'll get to it in a few minutes.

First, of the five bullets (data points) above what has changed between yesterday and today to drive the NASDAQ up 150 points, the S&P 500 up 20 points? What has changed in the last 24 hours?

I'll provide my take on it in five minutes -- 11:02 a.m. CDT. See if you can guess what I'm thinking. 

[Later: okay it's now 11:21 a.m. CDT. Did you come up with the answer? What is different about today -- what changed from yesterday to today? No, not the hurricane. The market has known about the hurricane for days if not weeks. This is what is new: Trump's poll numbers in so-called toss-up states. Biden's policies: looking backward; depressing; sullen. Trump's policies: looking forward; exciting; positive. Trump's poll numbers: that's the only thing that has changed in the last twelve hours.]

Indy 500

On August 24, 2020, I wrote:

I completely missed (as in, avoided) the Indy 500 except for the first ten laps and the last ten laps. What a disappointment. Too many commercials for the Indy 500, and that finish. Are you kidding me? Five laps left and Indy 500 owners had seen enough. Called the race with five laps to go. I've never seen anything like it. 

Today, the television ratings are out. And they are not good, despite the spin. NBC's Indy 500 TV ratings were worst ever, but not bad for 2020. Let's see what the writer has to say (

The Indy 500 pulled a 2.23 household rating in its second year since moving from ABC to NBC for its worst showing since it became a live national broadcast.

The event was postponed from its traditional Memorial Day weekend Sunday date to Aug. 23 due to the coronavirus pandemic and faced direct competition from NBA basketball, PGA golf and the NASCAR Drydene 311, which was broadcast on NBC Sports and started an hour and a half after the green flag flew in Indianapolis.

So folks preferred golf, #BLM, and the Drydene 300 (are you kidding me?) over the Indy 500 -- said to be the greatest sports spectacle of all time (except for the World's Series, the Stanley, Cup, the World Cup, the FedEx PGA Tournament, and the Super Bowl)? 

LOL. The writer did not mention the start-to-finish commercials -- I couldn't tell if the Indy 500 was a live race or an infomercial. I tried watching, but couldn't. On top of that, the writer did not mention the incredibly bad last five laps, but, of course, by that time, that would not have affected the ratings .

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- August 26, 2020

EIA weekly petroleum report: link here.

  • US crude oil in storage: 507.8 million bbls;
  • US crude oil in storage decreased by 4.7 million bbls, week-over-week;
  • US crude oil imports: 5.9 million bpd, up by 185,000 bpd from the previous week; about 16.9% less than the wame four-week period last year;
  • refiners operating at 82.0% capacity;
  • distillate fuel production increase last week, averaging 5.1 million bpd
  • distillate inventories increased by 1.4 million bbls, now 24% above the five-year average for this time of year;
  • jet fuel supplied was down 45.7% compared with same four-week period last year

Homework Due This Morning

Fast and furious -- getting it in before it's due at 10:00 a.m.

XTO Has A Huge Well In Siverston Oil Field -- August 26, 2020

 The well:

  • 36133, SI/A, XTO, Arlys Federal 34X-31C, Siverston, t--; cum 60K over 30 days; 4K over days in 5/20 extrapolates to 40K over 30 days;


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

From the file report:

  • nine miles southeast of Watford City
  • fifth of seven laterals on this pad
  • middle Bakken entered at 11,304' MD, and 11,055' TVD;
  • target interval: 12' below the upper Bakken shale; seam appears to be 23' thick;
  • background gas ranged from 121 units to 3,920 units
  • lateral portion drilled in six days

Mortgage Applications -- Another Record; Dicks With Huge Record, Huge Surprise -- August, 26, 2020

Housing mortgages:

  • Pent-up demand.
  • Up 33% year-over-year. 
  • "So much demand," CNBC. Will continue through the autumn. 

Dick's Sporting: huge earnings report -- amazing:

  • e-commerce: up 194%
  • $3.21 vs $1.20 forecast
  • $2.71 billion vs $2.46 billion forecast
  • record-after-record set
  • pre-market: shares surge over 10%; up almost $5; trading over $51;
  • P/E: 42 (compare to AAPL P/E of 37)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Bicycles still hard to find. Reported and stressed by CNBC. That has been my personal experience, also, in north Texas. 


  • downgraded from "4" to "3" -- from 130 mph to 120 mph; will be catastrophic;
  • upwards of 12" of rain
  • moving NW at 15 mph
  • first "major" hurricane of the season
  • appears that north and east of Texas will be hit worse than Texas itself
  • landfall: just east of Houston, and west to Lake Charles
  • an overnight threat



  • S&P: another record; 
  • NASDAQ: up 42 points
  • AAPL: will make back all its losses from yesterday;
  • IMUX: ditto
  • UNP: not trading yet
  • JNJ: flat to slightly negative
  • TSLA: $2,055; P/E of 1,050 (compare with AAPL: 37)
  • AMZN: up $11
  • BRK-B: continues to melt up

CNBC: talking the market down; says "correction" is "just a matter of time."

MRO Is Hitting On All Cylinders In Reunion Bay -- August 26, 2020

MRO well after MRO well after MRO well in Reunion Bay -- absolutely incredible. 

Here's another one, just one of many. I think MRO and Reunion Bay will be the operator of the year, 2020, and the Bakken field of the year year, 2020. 

Reunion Bay is tracked here but has not been updated in quite some time and may never be fully updated; just too much activity. 

The well:

  • 36431, drl/A, MRO, Erickson 31-4H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 132K 4/20; a 50K month; cum 165K 6/20; remained on line through 5/20 meltdown;


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

From the file report:

  • Geologist's narrative not yet posted.

Another One

The well:

  • 36804, drl/A, MRO, Floyd USA 21-4H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 193K 6/20; 55K month;


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

From the file report:

  • Geologist's narrative not yet posted.

And An Even Bigger One: 225K Bbls Crude Oil In Less Than Six Months

The well:

  • 36844, drl/A, MRO, Akko USA 44-21H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 225K 6/20; a 60K month;


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

From the file report:

  • Geologist's narrative not yet posted.

I Mentioned This In Passing -- Personal E-Mail With Reader -- August 26, 2020

Back to 2017.

Pandemics And Lockdowns -- August 26, 2020

From The WSJ:

In response to the novel and deadly coronavirus, many governments deployed draconian tactics never used in modern times: severe and broad restrictions on daily activity that helped send the world into its deepest peacetime slump since the Great Depression.

The equivalent of 400 million jobs have been lost world-wide, 13 million in the U.S. alone. Global output is on track to fall 5% this year, far worse than during the financial crisis, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Despite this steep price, few policy makers felt they had a choice, seeing the economic crisis as a side effect of the health crisis. They ordered nonessential businesses closed and told people to stay home, all without the extensive analysis of benefits and risks that usually precedes a new medical treatment.

There wasn’t time to gather that sort of evidence: Faced with a poorly understood and rapidly spreading pathogen, they prioritized saving lives. 

Five months later, the evidence suggests lockdowns were an overly blunt and economically costly tool. They are politically difficult to keep in place for long enough to stamp out the virus. The evidence also points to alternative strategies that could slow the spread of the epidemic at much less cost. As cases flare up throughout the U.S., some experts are urging policy makers to pursue these more targeted restrictions and interventions rather than another crippling round of lockdowns.

“We’re on the cusp of an economic catastrophe,” said James Stock, a Harvard University economist who, with Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina and others, is modeling how to avoid a surge in deaths without a deeply damaging lockdown. “We can avoid the worst of that catastrophe by being disciplined,” Mr. Stock said.

It should be noted that Joe Biden is set to return to the overly blunt and the economically costly tool called lockdowns. 

More from the linked article:

The economic pain from pandemics mostly comes not from sick people but from healthy people trying not to get sick: consumers and workers who stay home, and businesses that rearrange or suspend production. A lot of this is voluntary, so some economic hit is inevitable whether or not governments impose restrictions.

Disentangling voluntary and government-ordered effects is hard. One study, by economists Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson at the University of Chicago, says government restrictions account for just 12% of the decline in consumer mobility in the U.S.; another, by a team led by economists Kosali Simon at Indiana University and Bruce Weinberg at Ohio State, says they account for 60% of the loss of employment.

Still, because of the close connection between the pandemic and economic activity, many epidemiologists and economists say the economy can’t recover while the virus is out of control. “The virus is going to determine when we can safely reopen,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in April. The Federal Reserve said in late July that “the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.”

Where Have All The Cowboys Gone? -- Speaking Of Which, Inflation, Too -- August 26, 2020

R U serious, Jay? Even Melissa and the other talking heads over at CNBC this morning were joking about Jay Powell's anticipated speech scheduled for tomorrow. Apparently Mr Powell will say that the Fed is going to let "inflation run a bit hotter for a bit longer." LOL. Melissa, et al, noted there is no inflation. Whatever.

Where Have All The Cowboys Gone?

Where Have All The Cowboys Gone, Paula Cola

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? Just What We Need -- Another "Major" New Permian Discovery -- August 26, 2020

Link here to Rigzone

Barron Petroleum LLC has revealed that the company has made its biggest oil and gas discovery to date.

The business said it drilled a new discovery well in Texas’ Val Verde County and found an estimated 417 billion cubic feet, or 74.2 million barrels, in oil and gas reserves.

Barron Petroleum outlined that the Sahota Carson 20BU #1 discovery well was drilled with a company rig to a total depth of 12,650 feet. Approximately 70 feet of gas-bearing Strawn porosity was encountered at the find, according to Barron Petroleum, which outlined that the discovery is situated approximately six miles southwest of the Massie (Strawn) field.

According to Barron Petroleum, Albert G. McDaniel, a petroleum engineer based in Fort Worth, evaluated geoscientist William J. Purves' 3D seismic analysis of the development and concluded that the project is now “so low-risk that it more resembles that of a development project than an exploration venture”.

Barron Petroleum, which has a 100 percent working interest in the project, is a privately held company engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production business. The company has primarily focused on drilling oil wells, gas wells and working over existing oil and gas wells in the Permian Basin and Fort-Worth Basin in the state of Texas.

OPEC basket, link here:  $45.87.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1063625530

Five wells coming off the confidential list -- Wednesday August 26, 2020: 77 for the month; 148 for the quarter, 594 for the year

  • 36349, drl/A, Hess, EN-Thompson Turst-154-94-1930H-4, Alkali Creek, t--; cum 100K 6/20;
  • 36315, drl/NC, BR, State Dodge 1D MBH, Dimmick Lake, no production data,
  • 35927, drl/A, CLR, Jamestown Federal 12-17H1, Banks, t--; cum 48K 5/20; off line 6/20;
  • 33945, loc/NC,  MRO, Walcel USA 42-8H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum --;
  • 28088, drl/NC, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-1201H-4, Cherry Creek, t--; cum --;

RBN Energy: Hurricane Laura's possible impacts on Mont Belvieu, NGLs, and Maybe Even The Permian

Yet again, the Texas-Louisiana coast is bracing for a hurricane that has the potential to be really bad, not just for the people and homes in the storm’s path, but for the region’s all-important energy sector. Hurricane Laura will be crossing a swath of the Gulf of Mexico dotted with oil and gas production platforms, and is headed for an area chockablock with tank farms, refineries, and steam crackers, as well as export terminals of every stripe: crude oil, refined products, ethane, LPG, and LNG. There’s a good chance there’ll be a lot of disruption to many energy-related activities for at least the balance of this week — and maybe longer — but one of the biggest hits could come to Mont Belvieu, TX, the center of NGL storage and fractionation. Today, we discuss how the storm might affect not only storage at the U.S.’s largest NGL hub, but gas-processing activity hundreds of miles inland.

Laura strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane Tuesday morning, and it’s expected to be upgraded to a Category 3, with sustained winds of at least 115 mph, by the time it makes landfall late tonight or early Thursday morning. As of Tuesday evening, the hurricane’s projected landfall is within the area between San Luis Pass, TX (near Galveston), and Morgan City, LA (about 250 miles to the east); it also is expected to batter inland areas like eastern Houston; Beaumont, TX; and Lafayette, LA. As we said in our introduction, that geography includes a lot of significant energy infrastructure, much of which has the potential to be impacted by hurricane-force winds and flooding, and to be affected by interruptions at other facilities they depend on. We’ve been through this before, of course — many times — and we know the drill.

Clearing Out The In-Box -- August 26, 2020

Shale: two more with announced layoffs -- Parsley and Pioneer Natural Resources -- link here --

  • both darlings of Wall Street
  • both Permian-focused
  • Pioneer Natural Resources recently subject of long Texas Monthly article

Fluff: Saudi prince responsible for boosting OPEC+ compliance.

Is Argentina's shale too expensive to drill?
One could ask the same question of the Permian. Link here

Vaca Muerta was Argentina’s hope for energy independence and even international success as an exporter of oil and gas. But that was before the oil price crash and before yet another financial crisis in the South American country that slowed energy investments. Nevertheless, Big Oil is not leaving Argentina, suggesting that there are still benefits to be reaped from a presence in the Dead Cow formation.

Exxon was earlier this month granted an exploration license for a block in Vaca Muerta by the Neuquen provincial government. The news is important as the license comes amid an industry-wide shift from growth to retrenchment, with costs getting cut everywhere they can be cut, projects getting delayed—especially exploration projects—and capex plans getting radically revised.

The license Exxon scored is a long-term one, for 35 years. As part of the deal, Exxon will drill and complete two wells over the next four years. If these yield positive results, the supermajor will then drill as many as 44 wells.

Iraqi pilots and F-16s: not gonna happen. I could have told you that years ago. Link here:

Nine years ago, just before the Obama administration pulled the plug on a troop presence in Iraq, Baghdad signed a landmark $4.3 billion, U.S.-backed Lockheed Martin deal to bolster its burgeoning air force with its very own fleet of F-16 fighter jets. 
The first batch arrived three years later, under the guise that the force would stand on its own two feet. 
But billions of dollars and almost a decade later some pilots say that there is little left of their investment and they fear few pilots are combat-ready to take on another ISIS wave or emerging threat. 
So, what is going on? 
Even before the global coronavirus pandemic swept through the beleaguered country, the Iraqi military was on high alert after the Jan. 3 U.S. assassination of Iran's top commander, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, as he touched down in Baghdad. 
Retaliatory missile strikes against two U.S. bases resulted in the U.S. withdrawing some contractors and troops from an array of locations -- including the F-16 homestead, Balad Airbase, just north of the capital.Lockheed Martin contractors withdrew from the base between Jan. 4 and 8, after enduring indirect rocket fire from Iran-backed militias, the Pentagon confirmed at the time. 
But according to two Iraqi Air Force pilots, who spoke on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak on the record, issues have emerged over the past months. 
"The issue is Lockheed withdrew its employees. However, all these planes [F-16s] need to be serviced and supervised," one source said. "But because of a lack of parts, the Iraqi defense ministry started making its own parts and things, which is not allowed and effectively voids the warranty on them. In one case, a tool was left inside one of the engines."

Mis-spoke: I quit reading the article as soon as I read "misspoke." Sure. FDA head acknowledges he misspoke about convalescent plasma.  And other fake news. Link here.

AAPL: AAPL is cheaper than Clorox. Finally, someone talks about P/Es and growth. Link here.

Hurricane: Hurricane Laura is being compared to Hurricane Rita back in 2005.

Backed Into A Corner -- August 26, 2020

Posted earlier:

Backed into a corner:

Add another: Abu Dhabi returns to debt market with longest Gulf bond ever.

The capital of the United Arab Emirates raised $5 billion from a three-part offering, according to a person familiar with the matter, who isn’t authorized to speak publicly and asked not to be identified. Abu Dhabi offered a yield of 65 basis points over U.S. Treasuries on $2 billion of notes due September 2023, 105 basis points for its $1.5 billion in long 10-year securities and 2.7% for $1.5 billion in bonds due in half a century, which will be its longest yet. Final pricing on all three tranches was lower than initial guidance.


Graphics For CLR's Kennedy-Miles Wells -- August 26, 2020

The graphics:

The wells: see this post.