Sunday, May 3, 2020

Wuhan Flu: SARS-CoV-2 And COVID 19

This is Page Three


Coronavirus: statistics. By country. By state.

US re-opening, tracked here.

New York: mortality rate (new link noted June 1, 2020).

Updates

June 28, 2020: Sweden's strategy may still win out.

June 23, 2020: black privilege -- I can't make this stuff up --




June 22, 2020: when will we "back to normal"?
  • NFL is betting on mid-November, 2020
  • London may: not until mid-2021

June 19, 2020: I see the mainstream media is suggesting that Covid-19 is harder on "blacks" than other ethnicities. My hunch: it's all about pre-existing, underlying medical conditions. When Italy and Spain were particularly hard hit early on, there was no evidence it was due to their overwhelming black population.

June 17, 2020: fake news and huge expectations.

June 16, 2020: fake news out of Texas.

June 7, 2020: Global headlines not necessarily good. Mainstream media tracking each "million" milestone of cases when, in fact, cases don't matter. Headline: South Korea grappling with uptick in infections; data doesn't support the headline. The "hot spot" I'm watching: Minneapolis and New York.

June 6, 2020: Norway vs Sweden, six months into the pandemic.

May 31, 2020: random update; some nice data points. So, now we have:

  • a virus that is not particularly infectious (this was suggested months ago, by the way), relative to smallpox, chickenpox, measles, and, the virus that causes the Trump Derangement Syndrome (which, by the way, that virus has still not been identified);
  • a virus that is not particularly deadly (CDC confirms, see link above);
  • a virus that pretty much hits those already with significant medical problems, and/or the elderly;
  • a virus, that compared to "seasonal flu," for which we have a vaccine, albeit very ineffective, that spares children and young adults;
May 30, 2020: mark these dates -- June 14 - June 21.
The Minneapolis riots broke out the night of May 28. On May 29, sympathetic riots broke out in NYC, Los Angeles, Dallas, other cities. These folks -- all of whom were wearing masks, of course -- were not practicing social distancing. Let's see if that affects the number of cases. The increase in deaths, if there are any, might not show up until a couple of weeks later. But certainly by the end of June we should have a good idea if the riots made the corona virus pandemic worse in the cities that were affected.
May 29, 2020: Norway vs Sweden, update.

May 27, 2020: the CDC is conflating corona virus numbers

May 25, 2020: something I've not seen addressed in mainstream media. Everyone agrees that testing for Wuhan flu is going to increase "exponentially" over the next few weeks. All things being equal, even if there is no "real" increase in the number of Wuhan flu cases, just the fact that more folks are being tested, the number of cases will increase. Two things: the federal government says lock downs in the US states can continue if there is a downward trend in the number of new cases being reported. Does the federal government know something the rest of us don't know? Second, if increased testing does not result in an "exponential" increase in the number of positive results -- what does that tell us about the pandemic? If there is something to this, we should see by following number of new cases by state. What state should we follow? Let's follow NY, LA, MI, for various reasons.

May 23, 2020: NY governor Cuomo under huge pressure. Says he was only following President Trump's guidance to explain New York state's huge Wuhan flu-related case fatality rate. The CDC confirms remarkably low Wuhan flu death rate.

May 22, 2020: Dak Prescott has still not signed. Does he really think there's no chance that there will be no NFL season this year?

May 18, 2020: weird Scandinavian graphs.

May 16, 2020: Tokyo and targeted surveillance.

May 8, 2020: Japan vs NYC. Data as of May 4, 2020.

May 8, 2020: must-watch video. Wiki entry.

May 5, 2020: by any measure, Sweden did much worse than its Scandinavian neighbors, and it wasn't even close

May 4, 2020: I'm not quite sure how to address the question but there must be some "political" correlation between those who felt, for example, under ObamaCare, that medical care must be rationed, and that folks with serious underlying medical conditions and/or over the age of 75 should not be aggressively treated vs those who now suggest that not one life should be lost to Wuhan flu if we can prevent it, no matter how much it costs. Mark Perry would be the guy to put up a Venn diagram and color in the area of those with cognitive dissonance. 
That was the whole reason behind the "stay-in-shelter" strategies -- to flatten the curve so that hospitals would not be overwhelmed. Under ObamaCare, that would not have been an issue. Hospitals would have had to form triage teams / "death committees" to decide who got treated and who didn't.

May 4, 2020: because of the way the CDC focuses on total number of cases (which makes little sense), Rhode Island is an outlier among the New England states. It does not show up among the list which includes MA, CT, NY, PA, and NJ. I was curious. Where does RI stack up when looking at numbers based on population?  I haven't changed any of the numbers in the spreadsheet below, except to add Rhode Island to the bottom of the spreadsheet. On a per capita basis, RI would rank #3, between CT and MA, for new cases in the past 24 hours. It would be incredibly interesting to remove nursing home numbers from all Wuhan flu statistics, but the only ones who know that number are the CDC and a few politicians who are intellectually curious. 

May 3, 2020: Governor Cuomo took the Swedish strategy route before he took Trump's advice to "shut down." I disagree with Dr Frieden's conjecture but I appreciated the op-ed:
Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and former commissioner of the city’s Health Department, says that if the state and city had adopted widespread social-distancing measures a week or two earlier, including closing schools, stores, and restaurants, the estimated death toll from the outbreak might have been reduced by 50 to 80 percent. Instead, New York mandated those measures after localities in states including California and Washington had done so.
May 3, 2020: tracking number of cases is irrelevant. Tracking deaths is somewhat more relevant. May 2, 2020, is a great milestone to begin such tracking: shelter-in-place orders are expiring in many states, protestors are becoming more vocal, and folks are flocking to the beaches, whether "allowed" or "not allowed." Ranked in order that the CDC ranked them on this date (total cases, which, of course, is irrelevant unless one has a hidden agenda).
Deaths - May 2, 2020
New Deaths Over Past 24 Hours
Total Deaths
% new deaths in this state vs top 11 states
% total deaths in this state vs top 11 states
NY
299
24368
23%
45%
NJ
204
7742
16%
14%
MA
130
3846
10%
7%
IL
102
2559
8%
5%
CA
77
2188
6%
4%
PA
125
2776
10%
5%
MI
154
4020
12%
7%
FL
50
1364
4%
3%
TX
25
874
2%
2%
CT
97
2436
8%
4%
LA
23
1993
2%
4%






1286
54166



Ranked in order of number of new deaths (in previous 24 hours) per one million population:
Deaths - May 2, 2020
State population in 100K
New Deaths Over Past 24 Hours
Total Deaths
% new deaths in this state vs top 11 states
% total deaths in this state vs top 11 states
Total Deaths/100K population
Total Deaths/100K as Precent Among Top 11 States
New Deaths/Million Populaton
NJ
90
204
7742
16%
14%
86.02
14%
2267
CT
40
97
2436
8%
4%
60.90
4%
2425
MA
70
130
3846
10%
7%
54.94
7%
1857
MI
100
154
4020
12%
7%
40.20
7%
1540
NY
200
299
24368
23%
45%
121.84
45%
1495
PA
130
125
2776
10%
5%
21.35
5%
962
IL
130
102
2559
8%
5%
19.68
5%
785
LA
40
23
1993
2%
4%
49.83
4%
575
FL
220
50
1364
4%
3%
6.20
3%
227
CA
400
77
2188
6%
4%
5.47
4%
193
TX
300
25
874
2%
2%
2.91
2%
83


May 3, 2020:


6 comments:

  1. The movie "Contagion" is an excellent "Docu-Drama" that breaks done very complicated science equations like the R0 and how important it is to know for certain who patient zero is.
    Calif is now autopsying folks who passed in Jan/Feb but were sick in Dec and have now tested pos for Covid-19.
    he fact is, we really dont know when virus entered the US (well maybe "THEY" do) and we have no clue who Patient zero is. All other numbers/stats are mostly useless without that info.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I think it will be fascinating to see the numbers one month from now: comparing the top eleven states (the top eleven were ranked as such based on total number of cases -- which, of course, is (almost) completely irrelevant in solving this problem.

    I'll be comparing new deaths over 24 hours one month from now with the data above.

    ReplyDelete
  3. May 4, 2020: I'm not quite sure how to address the question but there must be some "political" correlation between those who feel that medical care must be rationed, and that folks with serious underlying medical conditions and/or over the age of 75 should not be aggressively treated vs those who now suggest that not one life should be lost to Wuhan flu if we can prevent it, no matter how much it costs. Mark Perry would be the guy to put up a Venn diagram and color in the area of those with cognitive dissonance.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Having worked in Nursing environment, I am amazed the talking heads have spent so much time on insisting we protect those in Nursing facilities. We did this as standard rule to all family- If you're sick dont visit this week. If your kids have runny noses keep them in the car. This is SOP during flu season but also a standing rule. So why are they now talking about it like they invented a new idea. Boggles my mind.
    Gov Cuomo moving covid patients into Nursing homes was a horrible, if not criminal idea.
    There will always be the debate of at what point is a life worth saving in re: the aged population. Personally dont think it should be, life is precious from start to finish. My two cents worth (or less)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My hunch is this pandemic underscores the wide variability in quality of nursing homes/retirement homes not only across the nation, but within a county.

      Delete
  5. That is true enough. I tried to not work in those variablies. I have toured some that I would not put my worst enemy's parents in.

    ReplyDelete