Maybe, I don't know; I'll probably go back to watching a few minutes of CNBC today. I haven't watched it the past two weeks. Waiting for the dust to clear. I'm curious. The one thing CNBC "never" mentions: the plight of NYC. Watching CNBC one gets the feeling that things are fine in Manhattan. But, wow, it must be quiet. Nope, I just turned on CNBC, same ol', same ol' -- will get the jobs number and turn it back off.
The fog is clearing: for a better understanding of how Covid-19 will play out, review the Pandemic of 1918, also called the Spanish Flu:
- lasted 26 months (a full two years): February, 1918 - April, 1920
- market did not recover for five years, though it hit bottom quickly and rose quickly; true V-shaped phenomenon; after five years, trajectory was pretty much straight up -- until 1929;
- no vaccine ever developed
- four waves of infections
- as far as I know, there was no Dr Faust recommending shutting down the global economy to "flatten the curve"; the whole thing was over in two years; after-shocks lasted for two to three years; assigning after-shocks to Spanish Flu problematic due to WWI
- Covid-19
- universal, inexpensive, readily available Covid-19 vaccine: we probably won't see that until late 2021; early 2022;
- we're now seeing second wave of infections of Covid-19, especially in states like North and South Dakota which didn't see much of the first wave;
- flattening the curve will result in simply extending the "length" of the pandemic
- the "best" viral vaccine -- the vaccine for "seasonal flu" is only 45% effective
- since 1999, the WHO has made recommendations for "best" flu vaccine
- twenty years later, and seasonal flu numbers have not changed; the world still experiences significant outbreaks (despite the vaccine)
- no pathogenic virus has been eradicated in "the wild" except for smallpox
Jobless claims, link here:
First thing I'll see: jobless reports, but first this:
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