Petro-Hunt Activity In The Charlson -- December 9, 2024

Locator: 48363B.

Tag: Petro-Hunt 40721 40720 40719 40718

I can't recall if I've discussed these wells before. 

Because these wells / permits / files are on confidential I have no idea where the horizontals of these wells will go. I suppose that information is in the monthly hearing dockets somewhere and it's possible some surface owners know. 

But it's more fun to guess based on easily available information. 

Look at the graphic below and note the rig inside the blue oval. There will be four wells on that pad. Looking at the map, where do you think the horizontals will go?

Here are the maps.

These wells were permitted May 6, 2024, just a few months ago. 

These are my thoughts.

Looking at the first map above, the "larger map," look at the "open space" where horizontals are not to be found.

Look at the general orientation of the existing horizontals.

My hunch, the horizontals will run in the direction as seen in the graphic below.

If so, it makes the Petro-Hunt USA well, file #11983, very, very interesting.

11983:

Production profile from this re-entry well, selected years:

Halo effect in 2020 (this is the second jump in production for this well):

BAKKEN	12-2021	31	11127	11153	1472	13980	11607	2157
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	11735	11743	1564	14744	12049	2486
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	12961	12855	1913	16705	14075	2414
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	13169	13241	1791	17710	14251	3250
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	14796	14749	2052	19625	15570	3839
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	15940	15937	2134	21085	11434	9435
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	16487	16688	2502	21478	14918	6351
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	18468	18582	3716	23474	16316	6942
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	19825	19923	3055	24849	14893	9747
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	22606	22506	3585	28657	9936	18505
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	23111	22855	3964	28185	23792	4198
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	26899	26885	5880	34710	34493	1
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	22976	23059	7469	27542	27319	7
BAKKEN	11-2020	8	2685	2325	1226	1977	1924	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	18	451	799	30	125	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	829	683	140	7755	0	7546

Initial well, target: Silurian:

SILURIAN	3-1989	30	1698	0	1371	4852	4852	0
SILURIAN	2-1989	28	2049	0	1565	7850	7850	0
SILURIAN	1-1989	27	2101	0	2318	9990	0	0
SILURIAN	12-1988	30	2371	0	2248	8444	8444	0
SILURIAN	11-1988	30	2655	0	2736	8995	8995	0
SILURIAN	10-1988	30	2859	0	2801	11525	0	0
SILURIAN	9-1988	30	3243	0	3609	16062	0	0
SILURIAN	8-1988	1	190	0	52	899	0	0
SILURIAN	7-1988	3	876	818	141	3100	0	3100

For the archives.

Apple (AAPL) -- AAPL Hits All-Time High -- December 9, 2024

Locator: 48362AAPL.

A Trifecta Weekend -- December 9, 2024

Locator: 48361INVESTING.

Tag John Bogle investing  Aptitude

The trifecta.

Assad falls.

NYC assassin suspect caught.

MNF: Cincinnati Bengals hosted by the Dallas Cowboys. (Cowboys lose 27 - 20 in regulation.)

Doesn't get much better than this. 

********************************
On A Completely Different Note

Updates

One day later: after posting the note above, a reader sent me a very, very interesting link to a story "vouching" for the note below. The link is here. There's so much packed into that one essay a college professor could carry it for a semester. We'll post all of this again, as a stand alone post.

And then this, from The Princeton Review, SAT Vocabulary: SAT Words Still Matter.

Original Post

I consider myself pretty well read, so I'm always surprised when someone sends me something about which I know absolutely nothing.

That was the case when a reader sent me a note about the Johnson O'Connor Aptitude Test. 

Wiki entry: Johnson O'Connor.

The wiki entry is simply incredible. 

This is a most interesting site -- an "investing site inspired by Jack Bogle" in which folks talk about their experience with the aptitude test.

Where are Johnson O'Connor testing sites located? It appears that 90% of Americans live within a few hours drive a testing / research center. 

How much does it cost?

One option: take the test as a graduating high school senior, perhaps as late in the academic year as possible. By that time the senior has likely been accepted or has a good idea where she will be going to college, but has not yet committed to a major.

Then, apparently for no additional charge one is given the opportunity for an "optional" consultation within a year of the initial testing. Before the end of the first college semester, if things don't seem to be working out right or the student has second thoughts about a major, the student could go back for that "optional" consultation.

For me personally, the most interesting observation made by Johnson O'Connor was the value of "vocabulary."

Form the wiki entry:

After establishing the link between specific aptitudes and performance in certain positions, O’Connor decided to take a second look at his data and see if there were any aptitudes which were more important than others in determining general success and advancement.

It was during the course of this testing that O’Connor stumbled upon an unexpected discovery: A person’s vocabulary level was the best single measure for predicting occupational success in every area.

Furthermore, vocabulary is not innate, and can be acquired by everybody.

Because acquisition of vocabulary was not, in O'Connor's view, determined by innate aptitudes, it became a major focus of his later writings. O'Connor considered vocabulary augmentation a major key to unlocking human potential.

His later research included an effort to catalogue the most important words for English-speaking people to know and to order these words by difficulty.

O’Connor used his findings to improve vocabulary in American students. By first isolating a student’s vocabulary level through a carefully researched multiple choice diagnostic test, O' Connor believed that students could enter a vocabulary program of study that matches their skill level. It is at this level, and just beyond, where learning is most efficient.

Ivy League schools, specifically Harvard, place a lot of emphasis on vocabulary testing during the admission process. 

All of this has been an outstanding journey for me. 

And the cherry on top (as they say): finding the Boglehead site. LOL.

For those unfamiliar with John Bogle, link here.

One will never exhaust the Boglehead site. At the Boglehead site, getting started: at the introduction:

Bogleheads emphasize regular saving, broad diversification, and sticking to an investment plan regardless of market conditions.

We follow a small number of simple investment principles that proved over time to produce risk-adjusted returns far greater than those achieved by the average investor. They have been further distilled and explained in thousands of posts on the forum.

The power of the wiki is its ability to link content. If a topic has a link, there is more material available. This is not a structured course. Use [the links on the site] to explore anything you want, and consider bookmarking this page in case you get lost. The start-up kits [at the site] are designed to help you begin or improve your investing journey.

Oracle Slumps After Missing Bottom Line By One Penny; In The Bakken, Six New Permits; And, Four Ducks Reported as Completed -- December 9, 2024

Locator: 48360B.

Oracle: comments and guidance are incredible. Buying opportunity tomorrow? You betcha.

BRK-B: ouch!!!

My new avatar for Bluesky: 

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

After an 11-day hiatus, Dallas Cowboys play at home tonight. The Cowboys will host the Cincinnati Bengals.

WTI: $68.17.

Active rigs: 38.

Six new permits, #41406 - #41411, inclusive:

• Operators: Enerplus (3); Murex (2); MRO.
• Fields: Bailey (Dunn); Tioga (Burke); McGregory Buttes (Dunn).
• Comments:
  
• Murex has permits for two wells, a Ms-Julia Aristotle well and a Ms-Melanie Suzette well, lot 4, section 31-159-94, 
• both to be sited 360 FWL with one 340 FSl and the other 370 FSL.
  
• MRO has a permit for a Jesse well, lot 2, section 5-145-93, 
• to be sited 699 FNL and 2429 FEL;
• Enerplus has permits for three wells; the Crying Tree well, SWSE 8-147-97, 
• to be sited 917 FSL and 1596 FE; 
• and also has permits for two more wells, Foal and Zebra, lot 2 section 3-148-994, to be sited 945/944 FNL with one 2009 FE: and the other 2058 FEL.

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37938, 100, BR, Parrish 4C TFH,
• 40413, 1,564, CLR, Hellikson Paluck 2-25H,
• 40414, 1,723, CLR,  Urban 2-36H,
• 40534, 4,209, MRO, Decorah 44-10TFH, Dunn County.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  
• Longer version here. 

Devon -- Grayson Mill -- December 9, 2024

Locator: 48359B.

Tag: paleontology sharks fish  

Devon in the Bakken: A reader writes that he/she received his/her first check from Devon since the deal with Grayson Mill closed. A quick look by the reader says everything looks correct.

*******************************
Sharks and Fish: Evolution

 

 

*******************************
Montana: Paleontology

Those following the Bakken are very, very aware of the formations mentioned below. 

In the United States, in Montana:

If you want to study dinosaurs, you go to Hell Creek, eastern Montana.

If you want to study the evolution of fish / sharks, you go to Bear Gulch, Fergus County, near Lewistown, Montana.

The Bear Gulch Limestone is commonly considered to be part of the Heath Formation, the youngest formation in the Big Snowy Group of central Montana. 

Some authors instead consider the Bear Gulch Limestone to be an early member of the Tyler Formation, a patchy but widespread unit of Carboniferous limestone and terrestrial sediments.

Most of the Heath Formation is represented by black shales and marls, indicative of brackish and salty littoral environments. It developed along a transgressive sequence in a narrow saltwater seaway, known as the Central Montana Trough  or Big Snowy Trough. This seaway flowed into the Williston Basin, a shallow inland sea further east. The Central Montana Trough would have also been linked to fully marine basins on the western coastline of Laurussia, but this connection may have been broken by the time of the Bear Gulch Limestone's deposition.

Many distinct limestone lenses (localized sediment packages) are developed in the Heath Formation. They overlap each other in an east-to-west sequence which extends over a distance of 160 km in the Central Montana Trough. The only exposed portions of the sequence are found at Potter Creek Dome, a small uplifted area northeast of the Big Snowy Mountains. The last few limestone lenses form a large portion of the Upper Heath Formation, which is sometimes termed the Bear Gulch Member in recognition of the most well-exposed and fossiliferous lens in the sequence. This lens, the Bear Gulch Limestone, was also one of the last in the sequence, only succeeded by the Surenough Beds immediately west of it.  The Bear Gulch Limestone can be observed in numerous outcrops, spread out over an area of more than 20 square miles in Fergus County, Montana.

The creation of limestone lenses in the Heath Formation has been linked to tectonic activity extending the seaway by excavating bays out of the surrounding land. As old bays are filled in and buried by sediment, faulting and seismic events form new bays in a long eastward to westward succession.  It may have taken a mere 1000 years for the bay responsible for the Bear Gulch Limestone lens to fill in completely, after only 25,000 years for the entire bay formation sequence to run its course across Montana. 

The final limestone deposits in the area were succeeded by freshwater lake sediments of the Cameron Creek Formation, the oldest unit of the early Pennsylvanian-age Amsden Group.

 

Cramer's First Hour, Part 3 -- December 9, 2024

Locator: 48358CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC. 

Holy mackerel! Apple! AAPL:

Meanwhile, BRK-B:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  
• Longer version here. 
  

*************************
Recipes
Stuffed Bell Peppers -- Riced Cauliflower

Link here.

Pick up at store: ground beef, bell peppers, mozzarella cheese, maybe onion.

1. Pre-heat oven to 350°.

2. Large pot; one inch of water -- boil with a fitted steamer basket.

3. Prepare bell peppers: cut off 1/8th of the top and scoop out shell; boil, until they soften, about three minutes; set aside. Chop the top of the bell peppers AND DICE -- to be added to the stuffing!

4. Skillet

    4a. Prepare cauliflower: heat in oil on large skillet, medium heat; pinch of s&p; stir until softened and starting to brown; about three minutes; transfer to small bowl.

    4b Back to the skillet, wipe it clean. Add a bit more oil, chopped bell pepper and onion; again, about three minutes until softened;

    4c. Add to skillet: beef, garlic, oregano and 1/2 tsp salt and 1/4 tsp pepper. Stir, about five minutes.

    4d. Add tomato sauce and cauliflower rice from container that was set aside; stir to coat.

5. Place peppers in an 8-inch square baking dish; fill generously. Top each pepper with 2 tablespoons cheese.

6. Bake: 20 to 25 minutes.

Ingredients:

Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- December 9, 2024

Locator: 48357CRAMER.

Tag: ETF ETFs Russia Syria 

Holy mackerel! Apple! AAPL:

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

ETF: maybe we'll get back to this link again, later this week.

ISO-NE, link here:

• currently (8:44 EST), rates running at $110 (yellow)
• spiked to $240 overnight; the high was about 4:00 a.m. EST

Coolest graphic so far today: link here.

The four non-red, non-blue states are most intriguing:

Personal investing: Sophia is bored with the market. For the time being, she is parking her money in large cap ETFs. Reminder: mutual funds are only recommended for IRA accounts. There are still a few laggards pulling money out of their IRAs for RMDs, while others are getting ready to max out their IRA contributions in January, 2025.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  
• Longer version here.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- December 9, 2024

Locator: 48356CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Morning Joe: echo chamber again. Wow, David Frum is back on the show and given a huge welcome.

• reminder here -- just a couple of days ago;
• I guess the threesome kissed and made up.

Syria: hopefully these can be verified --

• link here;
• link here;

Notre-Dame: inside source says he has never seen anything like this --

• how Biden has ceded the presidency to Trump six weeks before the latter's inauguration. From Joe Scarborough this morning.
• confirms that Trump is press-accessible; Biden has not engaged the press since the election
• amazing segment on Morning Joe
• one Morning Joe talking head says world leaders unsure which American leader to talk to; LOL.
  

Plastic surgery and dental work:when one sees those results, the next big fix? Complete "eye socket" replacement from eyebrows to eyeballs to the zygomatic arch. A simple eyelid lift and botox is not enough. LOL. The "perfect white teeth" phenomenon is amazing.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• Longer version here.

Monday -- December 9, 2024

Locator: 48355B.

WTI: $68.09.

Tuesday, December 10, 2024: 17 for the month; 121 for the quarter, 650 for the year

• None.

Monday, December 9, 2024: 17 for the month; 121 for the quarter, 650 for the year

• 40037, conf, Hess, BL-SVOR-LS-156-95-0403H-1,
• 23276, conf, Grayson Mill, Darlene Federal 152-97-13-24-10H,

Sunday, December 8, 2024: 15 for the month; 119 for the quarter, 648 for the year

• 37877, conf, BR, Concord 1C,

Saturday, December 7, 2024: 14 for the month; 118 for the quarter, 647 for the year

• 40036, conf, Hess, BL-Svor-156-95-0403H-8,
• 39856, conf, Hess, EN-Lokken-LE-157-94-0805H-1,
• 35513, conf, Enerplus, FB Clinton 148-94-29B-32-11T,

RBN Energy: the odds for / against US tariffs on Canadian, Mexican crude.

President-elect Trump’s plan to impose a 25% tariff on all imported goods from Canada and Mexico — including crude oil — has raised concern among U.S. refiners, many of which depend heavily on those imports and would face serious challenges in replacing them. The question is, given that dependence and the incoming administration’s pledge to reduce energy costs, will refiners — and oil producers in Canada and Mexico — succeed in their efforts to exempt crude oil from the tariff plan? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the degree to which U.S. refineries incorporate Canada- and Mexico-sourced oil in their crude slates, the potentially devastating impacts of a tariff on Canadian crude in particular, and the odds for and against U.S. tariffs on oil imports from its neighbors.