Thursday, June 6, 2019

Random Update Of A Re-Fracked Equinor Banks State Well -- June 6, 2019

Lots of activity in the area.

The well:
  • 20630, 3,179, Equinor/BEXP, Banks State 16-21 1H, API: 33-053-03542; Banks, Bakken, s5/11; t9/11; F; cum 400K 4/19; re-fracked 7/23/18 - 7/25/18; 14 stages, 1.64 million lbs on the re-frack;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Road To Mexico -- June 6, 2019

Pemex is Mexico.

Most Important Post Of The Day: National Donut Day -- Friday, June 7, 2019

From nationaldaycalendar:
Each year on the first Friday in June, people participate in National Doughnut or Donut Day. This day celebrates the doughnut and honors the Salvation Army Lassies, the women that served doughnuts to soldiers during WWI.

In 1917, the original “Salvation Army Doughnut” was first served by the ladies of the Salvation Army. It was during WWI that the Salvation Army Lassies went to the front lines of Europe. Home cooked foods, provided by these brave volunteers, were a morale boost to the troops.

The doughnuts were often cooked in oil inside the metal helmets of American soldiers. American infantrymen were then commonly called “doughboys.” A more standard spelling is donut.
Free donuts wherever (almost wherever) donuts are served. Starbucks serves bagels, not donuts, so I assume Starbucks is not participating.

Lime Rock Resources With Three New Permits -- June 6, 2019

Missing oil. Where is it? Link at Bloomberg
U.S. Energy Information Administration data Wednesday showed a crude supply adjustment factor -- the difference between reported stockpiles and those implied by production, refinery demand, imports and exports -- of more than 800,000 barrels a day. While that doesn’t seem like that much, it’s added up to more than 24 million barrels over the past four weeks, and potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in trading opportunities.
Besides understating oil production, one of the culprits may be plant condensate associated with natural gas output, Merriam said. That plant condensate -- a natural gas liquid recovered and separated in processing plants -- can get blended into the crude oil stream.
While that supply is added into inventories, it’s not getting counted as crude production because it comes from the natural gas stream. As a result, crude stockpiles could rise without a commensurate increase in output.
In a research note on Wednesday, Macquarie Group Ltd. analysts suggested potential errors in net imports could be the culprit. The analysts added that May balances implied exceptionally strong production, which means U.S. oil output may be even higher than the 12.4 million barrel-a-day record in this week’s data -- a narrative that many bearish market participants believe. Rystad Energy AS said Thursday that its May data shows crude supply averaging 12.5 million.
Projection: from Rystad via oilprice --
Rystad Energy is raising its forecast for US crude output to 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by December 2019. For May 2019, our research and calculations point to crude oil production averaging 12.5 million bpd. Both are new all-time highs.
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6560522682

Three new permits
  • Operator: Lime Rock Resources III-A, L.P.
  • Field: Murphy Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments: Lime Rock has permits for a 3-well Harland Rebsom pad in section 35-144-95, Murphy Creek oil field
Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34985, 1,409, XTO, Roxy 21X-6EXH, West Capa, t5/19; cum --;
  • 34986, 1,592, XTO, Roxy 21X-6AXD, West Capa, t51/9; cum --;
  • 34924, n/d, CLR, Collison 11-23H, Avoca, t--;  cum --;
  • 35691, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 15X-17HSL, Elm Tree, t--; cum --;
  • 33028, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 13-17H, Elm Tree, t--; cum --:
  • 30645, n/d, CLR, Sorenson 9-16H1, Alkali Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 35054, n/d, CLR, Rader 4-24HSL1, Avoca, t--; cum --;

Plastics Plant, Lebow-Bakken Midstream Update -- June 6, 2019

This story will be tracked here for now.

From Bakken Midstream press release:
Bakken Midstream, a developer of value-added natural gas infrastructure in North Dakota, announced today the closing of its Series A funding.
The first-round funding led by the Family Office of Founder and Chairman, Steven E. Lebow was oversubscribed. Previously, Lebow co-led Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette’s Los Angeles office and ran GRP Partners, a venture capital firm.
He was a primary financier for companies including Costco Wholesale, PetSmart, Dick’s Sporting Goods and ULTA Beauty.
Lebow has been studying the North Dakota natural gas market for several years along with representatives of the State and industry and believes the timing is right to build a major infrastructure company in North Dakota.
Other investors in the round include Richard A. Galanti, longtime CFO of Costco Wholesale, Charles J. Philippin, former longtime Chairman of ULTA Beauty, George P. Orban, Co-Founder and Lead Director of Ross Stores, Inc., and Herald L. Ritch, Founder of DC Advisory.

Resource Energy Can-Am Makes Fifth Acquisition In Divide County -- June 6, 2019

From oilandgas360:
  • Resource Energy Can-Am LLC made a fifth acquisition in the Bakken play, in Divide County
  • seller: unidentified
  • new acquisition: 19 wells; 750 net boepd, and provied producing net reserves of 2.2 million boe
  • Resource Energy now has over 120,000 net acres; proven reserves of 33 million boe; an interest in 416 wells (205 operated)
  • "banker": Apollo Global Management, LLC (the "Apollo Funds")
Previously, from "Bakken Operators":
Resource Energy Can-Am, LLC

Pardon The Interruption: Bloomberg On Pocahontas -- Gaining On Sanders -- June 6, 2019

I find political polling and political news reports fascinating.

The changes from week-to-week in the Democrat presidential polling has changed little since Biden announced, and any changes are statistically insignificant.

However, I assume potential donors and the candidates themselves are watching the trends very, very closely. So, it's fascinating to compare the numbers to the news stories.

This morning, a story from Bloomberg (BNN) on Pocahontas. Bloomberg headline: "Warren Gains On Sanders." (There was more to the headline but that was the hook.)

Since that was not the movie I was watching, I was curious. Here's the lede:
Elizabeth Warren has been climbing in the Democratic presidential contest by using a stream of policy blueprints and hours of selfies with voters to chip away at her immediate target: Bernie Sanders.

Warren’s path to directly challenging front-runner Joe Biden runs through Sanders, her main rival for progressive voters and the candidate who’s steadily held the No. 2 spot in most polls.
In fact, the numbers don't support the headline or the lede (here and here, both of those links are dynamic/changing, and thus after the next poll comes out, things will have changed).

Pocahontas came close to 10% (9.8%) a few weeks ago but has since dropped; most recently from 8.4% to 8.2% -- again, absolutely statistically insignificant, but the trend is important for a potential donor. Again, the Bloomberg lede said Pocahontas had been climbing in the presidential contest. Perhaps very, very early on that was true, but certainly not in the past month. Her numbers are statistically unchanged, but if anything, she is trending down.

The headline for the story: "Warren Gains On Sanders." Absolutely bogus from what I see.

On another note, the tea leaves suggest that Hillary is looking to be deus ex machina (or perhaps, better: diva ex machina) when she walks on stage before the second vote is called at a brokered DNC convention.

I love the second definition for diva: 
  • a self-important person who is temperamental and difficult to please (typically used of a woman) 
Ad Nauseum

You cannot fine a more liberal/socialist-leaning mainstream weekly sold in the US than The Economist. If you removed The Economist poll from the polling below, the average for Pocahontas drops from 8.17% to 7.4%.

To show just how much The Economist polling lacks any credibility, compare the Biden number from The Economist with the five other polls.

Random Update Of Three Slawson Mooka Wells In Big Bend -- June 6, 2019

Three Mooka wells show slight bump in production; a well to the east was recently fracked.

The three Mooka wells with slight increase in production:
  • 24217, farthest from recently fracked well; 733, Slawson, Mooka 3-29-20TFH, Big Bend, t6/13; cum 318K 4/19;
  • 24218, the middle of three; 997, Slawson, Mooka 4-29-2H, Big Bend, t6/13; cum 312K 4/19;
  • 20810, the closest to the recently fracked well; 669, Slawson, Mooka 2-29-20TFH, t6/13; cum 379K 4/19;
The recently fracked wells to the east:
  • 29997, 834, Slawson, Fox 1SLH, middle Bakken, 45 stages; 9.6 million lbs, Big Bend, t1/18; cum --;  the scout ticket and the sundry form say this well was tested 1/06/2018, but it was stimulated 12/05/2018; also production suggests this well was tested 1/19, similar in time to #29999 (see next entry)
  • 29999 (farther to the east), 550, Slawson, Shakafox 4-29-21MLH, Big Bend, t11/18; cum 62K 4/19  off line most of 3/19 and 4/19;
Recent production of the three Mooka wells above:

24217, farthest away from recently fracked well, and also a TFH well:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

24218: middle of the three:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

20801: closest to the recently fracked well, and also a TFH well:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Update Of An Old RimRock/KOG Moccasin Creek Well -- June 6, 2019

The well:
  • 24056, 2,271, RimRock/KOG, Moccasin Creek 14-11-2-3H, Moccasin Creek,  t1/13; cum 349K 4/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

FracFocus: no re-frack; first fracked in 2013; 

Lots of activity in the area with fracking of newer wells in 9/18; 

Another short lateral running diagonally in the area showed a very, very slight bump in production in 10/18:
  • 18295  1,260, RimRock, Moccasin Creek 16-3-11H, Moccasin Creek, t2/10; cum 494K 4/19; TD only 15,627 feet;
Another well on the same pad showed no change in production:
  • 24058, 1,570, RimRock, Moccasin Creek 14-11-2-3H3, a Three Forks well, 25 stages; 3.3 million lbs, Moccasin Creek, t2/13; cum 195K 4/19; no geologist's report filed, but most like a Three Forks first bench well;

Watch For CLR Hereford Wells To Start Reporting Production -- June 6, 2019


June 6, 2019: this is pretty amazing. I posted the original post (see below) yesterday. Today -- on the daily activity report -- two Hereford wells were reported.

Original Post 

CLR's Angus wells in Elm Tree are showing a very slight bump in production suggesting some activity in the area. To the west are the CLR Hereford wells. It looks like these wells have been fracked (1/19) and will soon report. The CLR Hereford wells are tracked here but have not been updated. Likewise, the Angus wells, tracked here, have not been updated.

Oasis Reports A Very, Very Nice Well In A Drilling Unit With Almost No Other Activity -- June 6, 2019

The well:
  • 23203, 1,438, Oasis, Kaitlin Federal 5693 41-28B, Alger, t12/18; cum 151K 4/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

No other wells int he area except #17477 which is barely "involved." No effect on #17477 which is a pretty lousy well:
  • 17477, 200, Oasis, Mell 44-21H, Alger, t12/08; cum 111K 4/19; producing less than 250 bbls/month;
#23068, an Equinor well in the drilling unit to the east was not affected. That well, too, is not particularly good:
  • 23068, 2,454, Equinor, Liffrig 29-20 5H, Alger, t12/12; cum 158K 4/19; producing about 1,000 bbls/month (4/19) 
Sophia Checking In 

Six Wells Come Off The Confidential List Today -- June 6, 2019

Jobs, link here:
  • forecast: 215K
  • actual: 218K
Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, June 6, 2019: 16 for the month; 205 for the quarter;
  • 35389, SI/NC, Newfield, Goliath 150-98-5-8-6H, 
  • 35097, 562, Liberty Resources Management Company, LLC, Stanley W 158-91-30-6-1TFHX,  Kittleson Slough, t12/18; cum 74K 4/19;
  • 34697, 1,760, CLR, Rolf 4-17H, Brooklyn, t4/19; cum 22K after 21 days;
  • 32205, SI/NC, BR, CCU Pacific Express 32-19TFH,  Corral Creek,  no production data,
  • 30028, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Federal-151-95-0817H-5, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 23203, 1,438, Oasis, Kaitlin Federal 5693 41-28B, Alger, t12/18; cum 151K 4/19; 
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6460522682

RBN Energy: how much more crude export capacity does the US really need? Archived.
Crude oil production in the U.S. continues to rise — it currently stands at 12.4 MMb/d, up more than 1.6 MMb/d from 12 months ago, according to the most recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). New pipeline projects from Cushing and West Texas to the Gulf Coast are being developed to ensure there is enough flow capacity to move all those barrels from the wellhead to refineries and export docks. Which leads to two critical questions — namely, how much actual crude oil export capacity is already in place at the Gulf Coast, and how much more needs to be developed? Today, we begin a series presenting our latest analysis of crude oil export capacity in the U.S., our forecast for total export demand, and our view of what it all means for the large slate of potential projects.
U.S. crude oil export volumes have grown substantially since the ban on most crude exports was lifted in December 2015. After doubling from nearly 600 Mb/d in 2016 to 1.2 MMb/d in 2017, export volumes increased again last year (averaging 2 MMb/d.
So far in 2019, crude oil exports have been averaging just over 2.7 MMb/d after hitting an all-time high of 3.6 MMb/d in mid-February. The demand to ship barrels overseas shows no signs of slowing, and for good reason. Crude exports are being driven by simple fundamentals, all of which point to continued growth in crude oil volumes moving out of the Gulf Coast and into international markets.

Only Known Allied Color Footage Of D-Day Landing -- June 6, 2019

From YouTube:
The only known Allied colour footage of World War Two was uncovered in the attic of a Hollywood director by his son.
When the warship HMS Belfast fired the shot that launched the D-Day landings, it was carrying an unlikely passenger - Hollywood film director George Stevens.
With Allied forces set to storm the Normandy beaches of Nazi-occupied France, Stevens was on-board making a unique 16 millimetre colour film journal. He had made his name in the 1930s, directing the likes of Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers in 'Swing Time' (1936) and Cary Grant in 'Gunga Din' (1939).
But in 1942, after seeing Leni Riefenstahl's Nazi propaganda movies, Stevens enlisted. General Dwight Eisenhower assigned him to head up the combat motion-picture coverage, a unit covering the war in black-and-white 35 millimetre film for newsreels and military archives.
But while documenting the Allied forces' advance towards Berlin, he took with him a 16 millimetre camera and boxes of Kodachrome film on which he would shoot a personal visual diary of the war. The film canisters of the war were developed back in the US, but Stevens stored them and for decades they went untouched.  
Much more at the comment section for the video.

D-Day Landing

New Jersey Denies The Pipeline That NYC Denied Earlier -- June 6, 2019

For the backstory, see this post from yesterday. The multiple New York City, New York state, and New Jersey pipeline stories are being tracked here.

New Jersey denies key permits for Williams' NESE natural gas project. Link here.
New Jersey regulators have rejected key wetlands, water quality and land use approvals for Williams' Northeast Supply Enhancement project, in another blow to the pipeline expansion that would bring 400 MMcf/d of incremental natural gas supply into New York markets.
The project only three weeks earlier was denied a water quality certificate by New York state regulators, though Williams has expressed optimism it could answer New York's "technical concern" and meet its in-service target.
The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, in a decision released late Wednesday, found that Williams' Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line had not fully shown how it could avoid or minimize adverse impacts to surface water quality caused by dredging to build a segment of the pipeline that would run through New Jersey waters of the Raritan Bay. The decision was without prejudice to Transco submitting future modeling analysis to demonstrate that mitigation.
The state regulators also found Transco had not shown there were no alternatives that ease impacts of a proposed compressor station to freshwater wetlands and riparian areas, and had not shown a compelling need warranting the compressor station as presently proposed.
New Jersey portions of the project include a 32,000 horsepower compressor station in Franklin Township, the 5.96-miles Madison Loop, and the roughly 6-mile Raritan Loop in New Jersey waters.
The decisions are without prejudice, giving Transco an opportunity to reapply.
Pipeline Under The Sea Not To Be

Back to the Future

Expect More Fake Science, Not Just Fake News -- June 6, 2109

From What's Up With That:

I quit subscribing to The National Geographic after that cover photo of the submerged Statue of Liberty. I still pay for a subscription for the granddaughters, and never discuss global warming with them. They can sort it out for themselves, but they never bring it up.

We're still waiting for the "official" May, 2019, atmospheric CO2 readings at this site. Apparently we hit 415 ppm in May, 2019. Interestingly enough, I did not see any news story when that milestone was reached. I suppose this was mostly because May was somewhat cooler than usual and definitely wetter than usual and that would not have fit the global warming narrative.

Was it a wet winter? From iceagenow:

Lake Mead water level is at a three-year high and not by a trivial amount.