ERCOT Vs Mother Nature -- December 22, 2022

Euless, TX: 11°F. Wind chill worse.

Link here. 

First twelve hours of this 60-hour polar vortex: ERCOT - 1; Mother Nature - 0. 

AAPL Cuts Dividend -- December 22, 2022

Link here. 

Link here.

Really? December 22, 2022

Link here.

I was fascinated by these data points regarding Canadians:

• the average Canadian drives 15,200 kms / year (9,000 miles / year)
• the average Canadian owns "a car" for thirteen years -- thirteen years
• 13 years x 9,000 miles = 117,000 miles - that's the average Canadian

By Monday, Changes To Retirement Plans? December 22, 2022

Link here. 

WASHINGTON—Senators passed a $1.65 trillion spending bill just ahead of the Christmas holiday and a gathering winter storm, after breaking an impasse related to immigration policy and racing through more than a dozen amendments.

The bipartisan bill was approved in a 68-29 vote. The legislation will now go to the House, where it is expected to pass, before heading to President Biden’s desk.

The omnibus legislation includes $858 billion in military spending, $45 billion more than the White House had requested and up about 10% from $782 billion the prior year. It also includes $772.5 billion in nondefense discretionary spending, up almost 6% from $730 billion the prior year. The overall discretionary price tag works out to about $1.65 trillion, compared with $1.5 trillion the prior fiscal year.

For retirees, link here:

Tucked into the $1.7 trillion government spending bill for 2023 lawmakers unveiled Tuesday are a range of significant reforms to help Americans save more for retirement.

These include increasing the age for required minimum distributions from retirement plans to pushing businesses to get more employees enrolled in plans. The bill also includes ideas that may help younger people save more earlier in life.

The measures — which begin on page 2,046 of the massive 4,155-page bill — mean that long-delayed retirement reform legislation known as SECURE 2.0 is now likely on a path to becoming law as soon as this weekend and would start to address what is becoming a retirement savings crisis in the U.S.

In a note Tuesday morning, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner explained how “the bill would expand retirement saving options by allowing a deferral on mandatory withdrawals, an increased catch-up contribution to 401(k) plans, and provide new options for small businesses to offer retirement plans to employees.”

Another key part of the bill would change the age when people must start taking mandatory distributions from their private retirement plans.

The SECURE Act increased the required minimum distribution age to 72 from 70.

Now, under the spending bill introduced Tuesday, the age requirement would raise again to 73 starting on January 1, 2023 and then to 75 by 2033.

A Madison Well Northwest Of Minot Is Trending Toward 500K Bbls Crude Oil; Drilled In 1987 -- Deecebmer 22, 2022

This is a Madison well. 

The well:

• 12127, 354, Rim Operating, Johnson 4-24, Greenbush, t7/87; cum 496K 10/22;;
  

Greenbush oil field is 35 miles northwest of Minot:

Three New Permits; Six Permits Renewed; Twelve DUCs Reported As Completed -- December 22, 2022

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $78.26.

Natural gas: $5.098.

Three new permits, #39520 -- #39522, inclusive:

• Operator: BR
• Field: Dimmick Lake (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• BR has permits for three more State Dodge wells; SESE 21-151-96, 
• to be sited 400 FSl and between 440 FEL and 530 FEL

Six permits renewed:

• Foundation Energy (4): three Little Mo Federal permits; and one Mosser Federal permit, all inn Billings County;
• Petro Harvester (2): two FLX4 permits in Burke County

Twelve producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38817, 1,210, CLR, Dennis FIU 13-8H1, the Dennis / Flint Chips wells are tracked here.
  
• 38818, 1,195, CLR, Dennis FIU 14-8H,
• 38129, 982, CLR, Dennis FIU 15-HSL1,
• 38130, 1,565, CLR, Dennis FIU 15-HSL1,
• 38139, 1,753, CLR, Dennis FIU 11-8H1,
• 38140, 1,700, CLR, Dennis FIU  11-8H,
• 38147, 1,798, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 12-5H, the Dennis / Flint Chips wells are tracked here.
• 38151, 1,230, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 16-5HSL,
• 38634, 3,628, Grayson Mill, Viking 16-15 4H,
• 38635, 3,854, Grayson Mill, Viking 16-15 5H,
• 38636, 3,831, Grayson Mill, Viking 16-15 6H,
• 38637, 4,014, Grayson Mill, Viking 16-15 7H,

Quickies -- December 22, 2022

Coal: EU, Turkey only major energy users set to boost coal imports.

Japan: pivots (back) to nuclear power. 

Russia's only aircraft carrier: on fire again -- 

Russia: D5S + 17, link here -- 

Covid-19: China pivots --

• from zero-Covid, to
• herd immunity
• it's not going to be pretty

Merchant ships: pivot to renewable energy --  

Tesla: pivots to discounts --

Tesla Inc. has doubled the discounts offered on its Model 3 and Model Y electric vehicles delivered in the U.S. this month, according to its website, fueling concern demand for autos from Elon Musk’s car company may be softening.

“Take delivery of a new Model 3 or Model Y between December 21 and 31, 2022 for a $7,500 credit and 10,000 miles of free Supercharging,” the EV maker says on its website.

The charging credits also apply to the Model S and Model X vehicles, according to the company’s website, but not the $7,500 discount.

A Christmas story:

• how it became a classic;
• how Jimmy Stewart became George Bailey.

Lego: epic models -- link here.

Peter Zeihan: a seven part series. From 2018, it begins:

U.S. President Donald Trump made a… let’s call it a splash, at the G7 summit in Canada June 9. The G7 comprises the seven largest industrialized democracies – the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy – who also form the core of the entire American alliance network. Their leaders and finance ministers meet regularly to discuss challenges to the global order. Normally, the G7 is a bit of a lovefest with leaders agreeing to push this bit of financial stability or that bit of poverty reduction.

This time was different. The Trump administration is busy belittling and/or wrecking parts of the international order, and a mere week before the summit the United States levied steel and aluminum tariffs on nearly all the G7 members themselves. As such the summit was preceded and followed by quite aggressive statements out of most of the G7 members, most notably from Canada and France, about how American tariffs would not be allowed to stand in specific and a general dissatisfaction with the position of the White House on global affairs in general.

In essence, ahead of the summit the G7 leaders were showing concern that Trump’s rhetoric wasn’t simply rhetoric. And in the summit’s aftermath the emotion could best be summed up as defiant despair that Trump really, truly, means what he says.

I can see why they’re all pretty bummed.

For The Archives -- Cold Winter 2022 -- December 22, 2022

Link here.

Bozeman, Montana, broke a daily record low Tuesday morning, with temperatures plummeting to -43 degrees, while Helena, Montana, tied its daily record, at -35 degrees.

The temperature in Lincoln, Montana, also set a daily low at -49 degrees.

The coldest recorded wind chill (how cold it feels outside when considering wind speeds) was in the town of Malta, Montana, where it dropped to an astounding -72 degrees on Tuesday.

Nearly all of Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska and Kansas, as well as eastern Colorado and northern North Dakota, Oklahoma and Texas are under wind chill warnings from the National Weather Service, while blizzard warnings extend through the North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa and Minnesota and winter storm warnings are in effect around the Great Lakes and Missouri.

Forecasts show extreme low temperatures in southern states, as well: On Wednesday, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) declared a state of emergency, saying the state will see “temperatures that they haven’t experienced in a decade or more.”

Ovintiv's Increased Density Wells -- Westberg Oil Field -- December 22, 2022

I could have this wrong, but if I'm reading this correctly, there will be a total of nineteen wells in this drilling unit, as well as an additional two wells in a neighboring drilling unit. 

Spacing:

• 1280 acres / 20 wells: 64-acree spacing

Case, not a permit, from the NDIC December, 2022, hearing dockets:

• Case 29716, Ovintiv, Westberg-Bakken; to authorize an additional thirteen wells on a 1280-acre unit; sections 13, 24-152-97; authorize two wells to be drilled on two 2560-acre units, sections 13, 14, 23, 24-152-97; and sections 13, 24 -152-97 and sections 18, 19-152-96; seventeen wells total; McKenzie County;

Existing wells:

• 20595, 1,834, Ovintiv, Wahus Federal 152-97-13-24-1H, Westberg, t9/11; cum 336K 10/22;
• 31013, 1,348, Ovintiv, Wahus Federal 152-97-13-24-11H, Westberg, t9/15; cum 250K 10/22;
• 31011, 1,348, Ovintiv, Wahus Federal 152-97-13-24-11H, Westberg, t9/15; cum 160K 10/22;
  
• 23277, 2,000, Ovintiv, Darlene Federal 152-97-13-24-3H, Westberg, t1/13; cum 249K 10/22;
• 23276, 921, Ovintiv, Darlene Federal 152-97-13-24-10H, Westberg, t1/13; cum 165K 10/22;
• 23275, 2,102, Ovintiv, Darlene Federal 152-97-13-24-2H, Westberg, t1/13; cum 226K 10/22;
  

The graphics:

NDIC Hearing Dockets -- January, 2023

Link here. 

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.  

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Wednesday
January 18, 2023
Seventeen pages

The cases. These are cases, not permits:

• 29776, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga and/or White Earth-Bakken, amend, i) terminate an existing 2560-acre unit; ii) establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; sections 14, 15, 22, 23, 26, and 27 - 158-94; one well; Mountrail County
• 29777, MRO, Four Bears-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; sections 20, 21, 22 - 152 - 93; eleven wells, Mountrail
• 29778, Kraken, Ft Buford-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, sections 26, 27, 34, 35 - 153-104; one well; Williams
• 29779, BR, Keene-Bakken/Three Forks and/or Charlson-Bakken; amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 19, 20, 29, 30 - 153-95, one well; McKenzie
• 29780, BR, Keene-Bakken/Three Forks and/or Charlson-Bakken; amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 28, 29, 32, 33 - 153-95, one well; McKenzie
• 29781, BR, Charlson-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 25, 26, 35, 36 -153 - 95; one well; McKenzie
• 29782, Foundation Energy Management, Bicentennial-Birdbear, amend, establish a 640-acre unit; section 34-144-103; one well; Golden Valley
• 29783, Foundation Energy Management, Beaver Creek-Birdbear, amend, establish a 640-acre unit; E/2 section 1-142-103; one well; Golden Valley;
• 29784, Hess, commingling,
• 29785, Hess, commingling; 
• 29786, Hess, commingling;
• 29787, Hess, commingling;
• 29788, Hess, commingling;
• 29789, MRO, pooling; 
• 29790, MRO, pooling; 
• 29791, Grayson Mill, commingling;
• 29792, Petro-Hunt, pooling
• 29793, Murex, commingling;
• 29794, Murex, commingling;
• 29795, Ovintiv, commingling;
• 29796, Kraken, pooling; 
• 29797, Kraken, pooling; 
• 29798, Kraken, pooling; 
• 29799, Kraken, pooling; 
• 29800, Kraken, pooling; 
• 29801, Kraken, pooling; 
• 29802, Kraken, pooling; 
• 29803, Kraken, pooling; 
• 29804, Kraken, pooling; 
• 29805, Cornerstone, SWD
• 29806, Five States, SWD

Thursday
January 19, 2023
Thirteen pages

The cases. These are cases, not permits:

• 29807, NDIC, Liberty Resources, Rocky Top Energy; Glass Bluff-Madison; to bring some wells back on line that had been destined for plugging; McKenzie, Williams
• 29808, NDIC; Tracy Mountain-Tyler unit; to consider status of abandoned wells; Billings County
• 29809, CLR, Ross-Bakken, amend, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; sections 25, 26, 35, 36 - 156-91; and sections 26, 27, 34, 35 - 156-91; one well each;
• 29810, Crescent Point Energy; Zahl and/or Blue Ridge-Bakken, amend, establish four overlapping 2560-acre units, sections 25, 36 - 159-101, and sections 30, 31 - 159-100; sections 27, 28, 33, 34; sections 28, 29, 32, 33; and, sections 29, 30, 31, 32 - 159-100; one well each; Williams County
• 29811, Crescent Point Energy; Little Muddy and/or Winner-Bakken, amend, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units, sections 1, 12 - 158-101 and sections 6, 7 - 158 -100; and, sections 15, 16, 21, 22 - 158-102; one well each; Williams County
• 29812, Grayson Mill, Painted Woods-Bakken, amend, establish two overlapping 1920-acre units, sections 27, 28, 29; and sectins 32, 33, 34 - 154 -103; four wells on each; Williams County;
• 29813, Grayson Mill, Round Prairie-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2880-acre unit, sections 14, 15, 22, 23, 26, 27 - 154-104; six wells; Williams;
• 29814, Grayson Mill, Round Prairie and/or Painted Woods-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; sections 13, 14, 23, 24, 25, 26 - 154-104; one well; Williams
• 29815, Cobra Oil & Gas, Wannagan Field; recomplete #8337, Harris-Federal, Madison, section 30-141-102; Billings County
• 29816, WPX, Heart Butte-Bakken, six wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; sections 10, 15-149-92; Dunn County
• 29817, CLR, Ross-Bakken, five wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; sections 26, 25-156-91; Mountrail
• 29818, CLR, pooling;
• 29819, CLR, pooling;
• 29820, CLR, pooling;
• 29821, Grayson Mill, pooling;
• 29822, Grayson Mill, pooling;
• 29823, Grayson Mill, pooling;
• 29824, Grayson Mill, pooling;
• 29825, Iron Oil, pooling;
• 29826, Crescent Point Energy, commingling;
• 29827, Liberty Resources, commingling;
• 29828, Liberty Resources, commingling;
• 29829, XTO, commingling;
• 29830, Falcon Midstream, SWD
• 29831, Falcon Midstream, SWD
• 29832, Crescent Point Energy, SWD

Jobs And GDP = Huge Market Sell-Off -- December 22, 2022

Link here.

Jobs:

• claims rise modestly;
• forecast: 222,000
• actual: 216,000
• an increase of 2,000
  
• a raft of layoffs in the technology sector and interest-rate sensitive industries like housing have not had a material impact on claims;
• big declines in claims in California (blue), Indiana (red), Ohio (purple), Texas (red)
• huge increase in claims in Massachusetts (blue)

GPD: 3Q22 estimates revised up

• 3.2% vs 2.9%
• economy not dead yet
  
• despite mounting recession fears and a housing market slump, growth estimates for the fourth quarter are as high as a 2.7% pace, with consumers doing the heavy lifting, also buttressed by savings accumulated during the pandemic.
• business spending on equipment has also remained resilient despite higher borrowing costs.

Fed: more people need to lose their jobs

• job losses not happening fast enough
• 6,000 job losses short of forecast nowhere near enough to stop the Fed from raising rates
• housing market hasn't tumbled enough
• claims above 270,000: "would raise a red flag" -- say what -- isn't that what the Fed wants? Why would that be a red flat -- oh, that's right --> recession.
  

SRE: DOE Issues Export Licences For Two LNG Projects -- December 22, 2022

Link here.

• ECA LNG
• Vista Pacifico LNC

D5S + 17 -- December 22, 2022

D5S: tag.

December 5, 2022, Russian sanctions tracked here.

EU: update on Russian economy from three days ago (~ December 19, 2022 -- D5S +14)

• estimates -- another baseline

Enerplus Brown Bear Wells -- Ellisville / Lone Tree Lake

The wells (permitted December 16, 2022):

• 39496, loc, ERF, Brown Bear 158-99-36-25-2H, Ellisville, t--;
• 39497, loc, ERF, Brown Bear 158-99-36-25-3H, Ellisville, t--; 
• 39498, loc, ERF, Brown Bear 158-99-36-25-4H, Ellisville, t--; 
• 39499, loc, ERF, Brown Bear 158-99-36-25-5H, Ellisville, t--;
• 39500, loc, ERF, Brown Bear 157-99-1-12-3H, Lone Tree Lake, t--; 
• 39501, loc, ERF, Brown Bear 157-99-1-12-4H, Lone Tree Lake, t--; 
• 39502, loc, ERF, Brown Bear 157-99-1-12-5H, Lone Tree Lake, t--; 
  

Two New Permits, Four Permits Renewed, Seven DUCs Reported As Completed; 45 Active Rigs -- A New Recent High -- December 22, 2022

Gasoline demand: link here.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $78.97.

Natural gas: $5.262

Two new permits, #39518 - #39519, inclusive:

• Operator: Hunt Oil
• Field: Zahl (Williams))
• Comments:
• Hunt Oil has permits for two Scorio wells, NWNE 13-159-101; 
• one to be sited 246 FNL and 2230 FEL; the other to be sited 246 FNL and 2170 FEL

Four permits renewed:

• Foundation (3): three McDonald permits, all in Billings County
• Sinclair: a Grasslands Federal permit in McKenzie County

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38146, 1,619, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 11-51, Dunn County;
  
• 38148, 611, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 13-5H1, Dunn County;
  
• 38149, 574, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 14-5H, Dunn County;
• 38150, 1,330, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 15-5HSL1, Dunn County;
• 37980, 1,566, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 2-26HSL1, McKenzie County;
  
• 37981, 1,971, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 3-26H, McKenzie County;
• 37982, 836, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 4-26H1, McKenzie County;

WTI: Flirting With $80 Again -- December 22, 2022

TNF: wow, this is Thursday -- Thursday Night Football!

So much news, it's going to be hard to get to it all!

**************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $79.10.

Natural gas: $5.263.

Friday, December 23, 2022: 61 for the month, 170 for the quarter, 714 for the year.
38485, conf, Hess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-3,
38410, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5TFH,
37698, conf, BR, Ole 4-1-29MBH,

Thursday, December 22, 2022: 58 for the month, 167 for the quarter, 711 for the year.
38986, conf, CLR, Kiefel 3-36H,
37892, conf, Enerplus, Brass 147-93-17B-20H,
37699, conf, BR, Ole 5-1-29TFH, 

RBN Energy: FERC's new Spire STL decision helps secure future of key gas infrastructure.

On December 15, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued a permanent certificate authorizing the Spire STL natural gas pipeline serving the St. Louis area to continue operations. Spire STL had been on a treacherous legal roller-coaster, wherein its owner got a FERC certificate in 2018, built and started operation of the 65-mile pipeline in 2019, then in 2021 saw its certificate “vacated” — wiped out — by a U.S. Court of Appeals. Then, during the white-knuckled tail end of the ride, with the winter of 2021-22 looming, Spire STL got emergency/temporary authorization from FERC to keep operating while a brand-new application for a certificate was being considered. In today's RBN blog, we discuss the case — in which RBN played a part — and what it means for upcoming midstream projects.