Jobs:
- claims rise modestly;
- forecast: 222,000
- actual: 216,000
- an increase of 2,000
- a raft of layoffs in the technology sector and interest-rate sensitive industries like housing have not had a material impact on claims;
- big declines in claims in California (blue), Indiana (red), Ohio (purple), Texas (red)
- huge increase in claims in Massachusetts (blue)
GPD: 3Q22 estimates revised up
- 3.2% vs 2.9%
- economy not dead yet
- despite mounting recession fears and a housing market slump, growth estimates for the fourth quarter are as high as a 2.7% pace, with consumers doing the heavy lifting, also buttressed by savings accumulated during the pandemic.
- business spending on equipment has also remained resilient despite higher borrowing costs.
Fed: more people need to lose their jobs
- job losses not happening fast enough
- 6,000 job losses short of forecast nowhere near enough to stop the Fed from raising rates
- housing market hasn't tumbled enough
- claims above 270,000: "would raise a red flag" -- say what -- isn't that what the Fed wants? Why would that be a red flat -- oh, that's right --> recession.
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