Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Gasoline Demand And Notes From All Over -- May 11, 2022

Most interesting graphic today. Link here. Remember: I don't know if it's true or not -- fact-check, please -- but it's my understanding that President Biden has "green-lighted" US ethanol production, telling refiners they are free to produce as much ethanol as they want. It's so much less expensive and Americans really, really, apparently want more of it. So, here's the graphic, ethanol production, US:

Gasoline demand, link here. Combine this chart with the data that GasBuddy has been reporting all week -- US gasoline demand is dropping fast:

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Rambling -- Notes From All Over

I started blogging about the Bakken in 2007, but started this blog in 2009. I vaguely recall some periods when things were happening so fast I was unable to keep up, but it mostly had to do with the Bakken itself. 

Now, globally, there is so much going on, I'm not sure if we're all aware of all the changes.

Covid-19: coming out of Covid seems so "yesterday," so old, so much history. But it was only April 27, 2022, that Dr Fauci said "we" were out of the pandemic. Fourteen days ago? But because the Kraken was released (Putin's War) about the same time as the end of the pandemic, we had no time to celebrate and the global economy remains in shambles. At least for some. 

Putin's War: two big developments, both of which need to be fact-checked.

  • I heard that the Ukrainians have pushed back to the Russian border and are now actually threatening the Homeland; and,
  • more and more stories that the Russian economy is already starting to implode. 

Killing the Keystone XL: of course, that's become a metonym for all the missteps the Biden administration has made with regard to US oil and gas. And, of course, we're now paying the price. Of course one can argue whether one can call intentional decisions "missteps."

The diesel story has reached the point where some folks actually predict that diesel on the East Coast will be rationed this summer. The s**t hits the fan in July, 2022. Is the diesel story (today) worse than the gasoline story during the 1979 oil crisis when Biden's doppelganger was president? For those who don't know, western Canadian oil, heavy oil, the oil that would have been carried by the Keystone XL is from where diesel and heating fuel is refined.

From wiki:

The 1979 Oil Crisis, also known as the 1979 Oil Shock or Second Oil Crisis, was an energy crisis caused by a drop in oil production in the wake of the Iranian Revolution. Although the global oil supply only decreased by approximately four percent, the oil markets' reaction raised the price of crude oil drastically over the next 12 months, more than doubling it to $39.50 per barrel. The sudden increase in price was connected with fuel shortages and long lines at gas stations similar to the 1973 oil crisis. 
Let's see: global production, 2022, 100 million bpd; Russian production, 7 million bpd.
Is the plagiarist getting ready to dust off the "Crisis of Confidence" speech:
On July 15, 1979, President Carter outlined his plans to reduce oil imports and improve energy efficiency in his "Crisis of Confidence" speech (sometimes known as the "malaise" speech).

Autos: for investors and traders. Avoid.

EVs: for investors. Avoid. For traders: back up the truck. Periodically. Sell periodically. Repeat.

Streaming: investors liked DIS today; I've not read the report, just the headlines.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

TESLA: as bad as Tesla has been doing the past few weeks, TSLA dropped another $66 today, and has fallen 30% in the last six months. It's getting so low one has to ask whether Elon Musk can go through with the Twitter deal. For Trump supporters: don't count your chickens before they hatch. This thing is not over yet.

Daily Activity Reports For Monday, Tuesday -- May 9 - 10, 2022

The NDIC oil and gas "legacy" site still has daily activity reports. Link here.  A "huge thank you" to several readers who alerted this site to me. I am really embarrassed; I should have known but was unaware of this site where daily activity reports were posted.

New Permits

May 10, 2022:

  • Four new permits, #38935 - #38939, inclusive:
    • Operator: CLR
    • Field: West Capa (Williams)
    • CLR has permits for four Roxy wells in SESW 31-155-96; 
      • to be sited between 1056 FSL and 1071 FSL and between 2160 FWL and 2023 FWL 

May 9, 2022

  • None.

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Permit Renewals

May 10, 2022: 13 permits renewed

  • CLR (6): six Breitliing permits in Williams County
  • Petro-Hunt (3): two Johnson permits and one Jorgenson permit, all in Mountrail County;
  • Rimrock Oil & Gas (2): two Skunk Creek permits in Dunn County
  • Hess (2): an AN-Double Bar V permit and an AN-Lone Tree permit, both in McKenzie County;

May 9, 2022: none.

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Producing Wells Completed


May 10, 2022: three DUCs reported as completed --

  • 38545, 1,394, Wisness Statee 152-96-16-21-14H,
  • 38546, 1,634, Wisness State 152-96-16-21-5H,
  • 38548, 1,070, Wisness State 152-96-16-21-6H,

May 9, 2022: none.

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Permit Cancellations

May 10, 2022:

  • None. 

May 9, 2022:

  • 31109, PNC, SHD Oil & Gas, Charging Wildcat, McLean County

Rambling -- Where I'm At -- May 11, 2022

As most of you know, I wanted to take the blog down while the NDIC website is down. The whole "purpose" of the blog is based on data from the NDIC website. See the current note at the top of the sidebar at the right.

By the way, that note is dynamic. A year from now it will be different.

Texas:

  • the forecast is 90° to 100° F for as far out as the forecast will take us (ten days)
  • my physical activity day, every day:
    • one hour on the treadmill; moderate
    • one hour on the bike: extreme (for me)
    • one hour in the pool, swimming laps: leisurely, not aerobic
    • a second hour in the pool if Sophia will join me

The blog, last Bakken blog standing, and ad-free:

  • I live and breathe my blog.
  • I've removed the ads (and the income). It was fun but Google didn't like my posts and told me to "color between the lines" if I wanted to continue with ads; it's not worth the aggravation so it's now back to an ad-free blog.
  • I don't take my social security either; the government needs it more than I do (LOL);
  • my only "competitor" all these years was the "Bakken Blog" -- some outfit out of McKenzie County. All of a sudden I can't find them on the net. They're on twitter, and they are on Facebook but they are no longer "on the net" free-standing; let me know if they are still there and I simply can't find them.
  • if you google "bakken blog" -- it's my blog and that's it;
  • thank you.

NDIC:

  • I wanted to take the blog down while NDIC was down but I was frustrating too many readers trying to access "my" site, so I brought the blog back up.
  • I won't ever quit blogging but it's not worth posting the blog if the NDIC is down.
  • Readers disagreed, so the blog is back up -- against my better judgement.

Investing:

  • number twelve on my list of the most important things in my life is "investing."
  • number one? The grandchildren.
  • I look at the world through various spectacles
  • when I'm looking at the world through my "investing spectacles," some quick thoughts, none of which are to be taken out of context:
  • investing, not trading
  • accumulate short term with eye on long term
  • right now, 12:24 p.m. CT, cash flow from oil companies
  • accumulate those share to generate income to buy companies for the future
  • no hurry to get back into tech
  • my advice to my executor when she takes over the portfolio:
  • avoid EVs
  • pay attention companies who reward their shareholders
  • oil: we are in a crude-oil super cycle; it may be the last real super-cycle; I'm taking advantage of it
  • I stay fully invested. I accumulate more shares three times each month. Although I guess technically, it's twice a month, since the end of the month and the beginning of each month is pretty much one event. So, I guess, I add new shares twice a month.

Geo-politics:

  • Russia is toast.

Time to go biking. Back later.

EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- Distillate Story Not Improving -- May 11, 2022

Link here.

  • US crude oil in storage increased by a whopping 8.5 million bbls of oil; looks like that SPR release was exactly what we needed; refiners are ... well, what can I say? Going nuts in a good way.
    • the SPR release was to be one million bopd x 7 days = 7 million bbls (I often make simple arithmetic errors)
    • did President Biden simply shift SPR oil into commercial oil storage?
    • with so much oil in storage, one would think WTI would drop precipitously; rose 5% this morning; oh, that's right, Putin is causing the rise in oil prices in the US
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 424.2 million bbls; 13% below the five-year average; 
  • with Saudi, UAE concerned about lack of spare capacity, might it be prudent to start refilling the SPR? Asking for a friend.
  • US crude oil in storage, in days of supply: trending up; numbers later. About 26 days, trending toward 27 days; way more than needed for this time of year.
  • US crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million bpd last week (yawn, again); down by 62,000 bpd from the previous week, a rounding error, background noise;
  • US refiners operating at 90% of their operable capacity; one wonders why they aren't working hard at the diesel problem; oh, that's right -- the Keystone XL was killed.
  • US distillate inventories decreased by 0.9 million bbls;
  • US distillate inventories now a whopping 23% below five-year average and farmers now planting (or have planted) this year's crops; getting ready to fertilize;
  • jet fuel supplied was up 26.9% compared with same four-week period last year;
  • gasoline demand later today.

WTI: up 5.43%; up $5.42; trading at $105.20.

US gasoline price hits new high. President Biden blames it on Putin's War. I haven't quite figured out that logic yet.

And, yes, I did buy more energy stocks earlier this morning.

NDIC Website Remains Off Line For Third Day -- May 11, 2022

Putin's War:

  • flagship sunk, early in war
  • Putin's yacht confiscated in Italy
  • now this: Ukraine destroys Putin's "parade boat"


Scroll down for more
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NDIC oil and gas website: remains off-line. Third day.

Oil:

European diesel: I don't follow this, but all products measured in "mb" -- so when I see a minus 11.47 mb for diesel compared to a plus 3.65 mb for crude oil, this gets my attention:

Spare capacity: blog theme; more evidence:

  • Saudi, UAE: "use all energies amid capacity crunch"; link here.

Market:

  • RIVN: reports later today. Update, May 10, 2022, 9:35 a.m. ET.
  • DIS: reports later today
  • XOM: investments paying off; 
  • , Barron's paywall
    • could generate $50 billion free cash flow this year after CAPEX
    • ample to cover $15 billion annual dividend and $15 billion share re-purchases

Dividend announcements:

  • OVV: 25% increase; now 25 cents/share;
  • CAH: was 49.1 cents; now 49.6 cents

Netflix: in this incredibly competitive market, I just don't see this working --

911:

  • first question "everyone" is asking, "Why wasn't this done ten years ago?"
  • nice to see but the article did not give me a warm fuzzy
  • ATT says wireless 911 calls can identify location within 50 meters (0.248548 furlongs)
  • previously no better than 10 miles; say what?
  • link here for more.

Putin pays respect to American heroes on "Victory Day." Can't make this up. Many examples at linked site. Here's one: