Thursday, November 5, 2020

From Yesterday, And Today -- November 6, 2020

Road trip. 

Abbreviated updates.

Active rigs: up two --

Active Rigs1553665227

Operators with active rigs:

  • MRO: 3
  • CLR: 2
  • WPX: 2
  • BR:2
  • Petro-Hunt: 1
  • Hess: 1
  • Oasis: 1
  • Slawson: 1 (new)
  • Midwest AgEnergy Group (unchanged): 1
  • Hess Water: 1 (new)

One well coming off the confidential list --

Friday, November 6, 2020: 3 for the month; 27 for the quarter, 692 for the year

  • 36536, conf, Hess, EN-Sorenson_B-155-94-3526H-8, 

Two new permits from yesterday, $37959 - #37960, inclusive:

  • Operator: Petroshale
  • Field: Eagle Nest (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • Petroshale has permits for two Helen wells in Eagle Nest, NWNW 9-148-94; between 663' and 695' FNL and between 603' and 640' FWL
    • there are currently two producing wells on the pad where the two new wells will be located:
      • 35919, 1,534, Petroshale, Helen 1MBH, Eagle Nest, t9/19; cum 108K 8/20; F, off line 8/20; remains off line 9/20; short lateral, runs north in section 5-148-94;
      • 35758, 738, Petroshale, Helen 2TFH, Eagle Nest, t9/19; cum 77K 8/20; F; short lateral, runs north in section 5-148-94;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36202, SI/A, CLR, Polk Federal 5-33H, Banks, minimal production reported;
  • 36204, SI/A, CLR, Polk Federal 7-33H, Banks, minimal production reported;
    • there are several Polk Federal wells, in Banks oil field, about twenty miles east of Indian Hill as the crow flies; south of the river; the wells are long laterals (typical Bakken wells), running north, under the river.

RBN Energy: how Alberta's oil production cap became redundant in crazy times. Archived.

On December 1, the government of Alberta will officially end its nearly two-year-old policy of curtailing crude oil production to help shrink the massive price discounts that producers had been enduring. It would hardly be an overstatement to say that North American oil markets have changed dramatically since the production cap was implemented by Canada’s largest oil-producing province in January 2019. A short-but-bruising oil price war and a pandemic that slashed demand for crude resulted in Alberta producers making supply cuts even bigger than their government had mandated. Today, we look back at the provincial government’s policy and what has changed to motivate its suspension.

PSA: When Downloading Driver Software For HP Printers, Be Very, Very Afraid -- Or At Least, Very, Very Cautious -- November 5. 2020

I have had no problem whatsoever after updating my HP driver software. That was a story in itself.

However, for some folks it has been a major, major problem. Apparently, some folks using Apple computers downloading HP software are running into major problems which suggests one has a virus (a computer virus, not Covid-19).

If one gets this "warming" -- it seems almost impossible to get rid of it. It does not cause any damage to your computer,as far as I can tell, but wow, talk about a nuisance. 

Although it looks like a virus, it is not a virus. It appears to be generated due to HP software that is embedded in the driver software that ends up in one's application folder. It doesn't make sense that it's embedded in the HP software but somehow the Apple operating system detects this HP software and generates the message.

Google "hpdm warning" and prepare to be amazed.

This post provides an update and is very, very recent, dated October 19, 2020. 

This may be the best article to help you solve your problem if you have the "virus-like-HP" warming. That site provides useful links to solve your problem.

I have no idea what's going on but it appears that this was problem caused by Apple, but I could be very, very wrong. It looks like Apple is trying to minimize downloads to Apple computers from non-Apple sites. If so, very, very interesting. 

Some folks suggest some of this is being generated by HP to "force" folks to give up their old printers (which are working perfectly well) and replace them with new HP printers. That was my first thought; interesting to see others saying the same thing. 

That may be true. I still think it stems from a new Apple policy. 

Be that as it may, when downloading new non-Apple software on your Apple computers:

  • be very, very afraid;
  • be very, very cautious:
  • think twice; download once.

If you have the warning, it appears to be a simple process to remove it:

  • go to your Apple computer's "Applications" folder
  • if you don't know where the "Applications" folder is, go to find and search for it
  • in the "Applications" folder scroll through it looking for all "HP" downloads/applications
  • delete all those "HP" downloads/applications

Good news: that may solve your problem.

Bad news: your HP printers won't work with that computer.

There are very few options when it comes to printers, but this alone really makes me question whether to ever buy HP again. Unless we get some "easy fix." People are interested in geeky answers; they simply want the problem to go away.

EOG Earnings -- 3Q20 -- November 5, 2020

Depending how you measure it, EOG either missed or beat? Summary here:

  • 3Q20 non-GAAP EPS of $0.43 beats by $0.25; 
  • GAAP EPS of -$0.07 misses by $0.31. 
  • revenue of $2.35B (-45.3% Y/Y) misses by $150M
  • crude oil eqv. volume of 716 Mboe/day (-14% Y/Y). Generated $1.2B net cash provided by operating activities.

Press release here:

  • Identified 21 Tcf net resource potential and 1,250 net premium locations in new south Texas natural gas play
  • added a total of 1,400 net premium locations to drilling inventory which now totals 11,500 locations
  • generated $1.2 billion net cash provided by operating activities and significant free cash flow
  • capital expenditures 23% below target and crude oil production 2% above target per-unit cash
  • operating costs below targets 
  • introduced three-year outlook with 70-80% cash flow reinvestment
  • Narrative
    • EOG Resources, reported a third quarter 2020 net loss of $42 million, or $0.07 per share, compared with third quarter 2019 net income of $615 million, or $1.06 per share. Adjusted non-GAAP net income for the third quarter 2020 was $252 million, or $0.43 per share, compared with adjusted non-GAAP net income of $654 million, or $1.13 per share, for the same prior year period. Please refer to the attached tables for the reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to GAAP measures.

SRE Misses; Baker Hughes Buys 3C; And, The Robins Are Flying South -- November 5, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

SRE: misses by 31 cents. Wow, that seems huge. Let's see what's going on. First the "facts" from SeekingAlpha:

  • Sempra Energy opens little change despite reporting below-consensus Q3 adjusted earnings, as revenues ticked lower to $2.64B from $2.76B a year ago;
  • the company earned a Q3 GAAP profit of $351M, or $1.21/share, compared with $813M, or $2.84/share, for the same period last year;
  • Sempra reaffirms guidance for FY 2020 adjusted EPS guidance of $7.20-$7.80 vs. $7.66 analyst consensus estimate, as well as FY 2021 EPS of $7.50-$8.10 vs. $8.05 consensus;
  • also, Sempra says it still expects to get an export permit from Mexico that will allow it to make a final investment decision this year to build its proposed $1.9B Costa Azul liquefied natural gas export plant;
    • the company has been waiting for the 20-year export permit all year but it was held up in part by the coronavirus. 

Maybe later we will see analysis of the report by a SeekingAlpha contributor.  

SRE, historical earnings:

  • Sempra Energy EPS for the quarter ending June 30, 2020 was $7.61, a 503.97% increase year-over-year. 
  • Sempra Energy EPS for the twelve months ending June 30, 2020 was $14.58, a 106.81% increase year-over-year. From
    • 3Q20: $1.21
    • 2Q20: $1.65
    • 1Q20: $3.08
    • 4Q19: $1.55
    • 3Q19: $1.50
  • Sempra Energy 2019 annual EPS was $7.29, a 113.16% increase from 2018. 
  • Sempra Energy 2018 annual EPS was $3.42, a 238.61% increase from 2017. 
  • Sempra Energy 2017 annual EPS was $1.01, a 81.5% decline from 2016.

Baker Hughes buys 3C. Link here. Carbon capture.  

The Nature Page

I've always enjoyed watching the robins return in the spring. In North Dakota, robins tend to spend the entire summer, but here in north Texas, they seem to stay only a few days, maybe a week or so and then they are gone for the summer months. I had never paid much attention to their return in the autumn but with Sophia, I'm paying attention to a lot of things I had not in the past. Like robins and the night sky.

And the return trip for robins. When I grew up in North Dakota, I never saw the robins actually leave; one day I simply noticed they were not there any more. But in north Texas, we see them "arrive" again in the fall. 

They've got their little compasses out and are following the black end of the needles south. At least that's what I tell Sophia. She's been studying magnets in science in first grade. Isn't home schooling / remote learning great. All the things they learn from their grandparents. 

We have a crude map of the world, unlabeled, but with little labels she can place on the map as a teaching aid. So, we pulled out the map and put the labels where they belonged. Then, for the photo, we attached a little sticky note showing the direction of the robins. Apparently the robins "winter" in south Texas, along the coast, and in Mexico. So. they pretty much stay in North America year 'round.

Gasoline Demand Down Again; No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- November 5, 2020


Later, 4:15 p.m. CT: a reader posted this comment (see comments below): 

Last year the 335,000 barrel Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery blew up and no restarted. This likely accounts for a big chunk of the downward demand of PADD 1.

See the RBN Energy post regarding this refinery at this post; a search of the blog regarding this refinery tells us how much things have changed due to Covid-19. 

Original Post

Gasoline demand, link here 

OPEC basket, link here: $39.09.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs13556555

No wells coming off the confidential list today.

RBN Energy: shale, oil-sands production gains impacting US refineries' crude slates, part 2

Ten years ago, East Coast refineries imported virtually all of the crude oil they needed — 60% from OPEC, 21% from Canada, and 19% from other non-OPEC countries. Only five years later, in 2015, the tables had turned. PADD 1 refinery demand for crude remained unchanged at 1.1 MMb/d, but only 14% of the oil refined there came from OPEC, 23% from Canada, and 21% from other non-OPEC countries — the other 42% was either railed in from the Bakken or shipped in from the Eagle Ford and Permian. 
But the changes didn’t end there. Imports rebounded sharply in 2016 and 2017, when new pipelines were built out of those basins that pulled barrels away from PADD 1 and into more competitive refining markets. In the fall of 2020, imports are falling back again but for a different reason — with COVID-19 demand destruction and other woes, East Coast refinery demand for oil is down by almost half, with more cuts on the way. Today, we continue a series on U.S. oil imports with a look at the East Coast.

Chinese Flu Watch

Link here